400k vpp to SNE in 73 days

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54/poker-beats-brags-variance/race-elite-rules-line-has-dropped-322671/#post6641775
odds are 6-1. Enjoy the free money

person going for it is pokerpoopy

no way he can sustain 20x 6max table for 12-14h/day for 78 days imo

he may busto before he finish?

5khu sngs

that is one sick try, not possible.

lol

20k hands a day for 73 days, this is totally ridiculous. So he's not going to celebrate christmas and on newyears eve he's totally paranoid making it.

20k hands 24 table is like what, 1500 hands per hour? He has to play like 13 hours a day?

Please tell me if this is a joke.

this guy is a serious badass if he pulls this off, i mite put like 3k or somethin on it

8.8 hours a day for 73 days straight.

must be an something skechy involved.

wow. this seems impossible maybe i should put some $ down but i prob wont

id put a significant amount on this, but getting only 6:1, and the possibility that I would have to wait till Jan 01 to claim my money is -ev. putting money in escrow does not help me move up stakes

plus fuck wcg rider, i dont like him.

myth did it

On October 17 2008 05:42 Bigbobm wrote: plus fuck wcg rider, i dont like him.

word

no way he can pull this off, he'll get burnt out halfway, or maybe even sooner

this is so unreal there has to be something else up here or this dude is just insane

i made a minbet on this i hope i pick up 200 bucks!

the possible reward for him is large so i guess he thinks that will motivate him enough, but i think he's underestimating how hard this is

there are like a handful of people who can put this type of effort into anything.

unlikely he's one of them.

He will not succeed.

What about this guy who tried to make 10k in a month at nl25 ? He had a webcam set up and shit, guess he failed ? This guy won't make it either, the only person that would be able to pull a perf like this is LA and even him couldn't play 20k hands/day for 78 days... This is just someone with a biiiiig ego that would need a reality check imo.

if it were IntenseDawg he'd do it ez

im betting 2,400 against him.

mmm on second thought its only 400 bucks nah the odds are too silly to get the money escrowed for so long.

On October 17 2008 13:18 Baal wrote: im betting 2,400 against him.

aye good bet

this is so incredibly mentally draining assuming you play every single day even something like 13h a day 5 days a week is a incredibly difficult bet but like 10x easier relative to this

I know wcgrider is well respected on 2p2, but before he did his grinding prop bet like ½ a year ago he was not even a mod on the site, he is grinding midstakes (100K escrowed is a lot of money) and the fact that another well respected 2p2 mod recently ran away with a lot of money in a transfer with another mod, makes me worry a bit, I not claiming wcgrider would cheat though, just stating my worries... But it seems like the only way to lose, that guy is going to die or atleast go insane if he gets close to doing this, or of course it could be some sort of angleshot.

And like Baal says the return is too small considering your money is escrowed for like 3 months + there is that very small risk of losing it all

i usually think the guy doing it has a pretty good idea if he can make it or not....but even i think this is impossible

considering he doesnt even need to win, it's possible.... but yeah gotta skip christmas and shit

On October 17 2008 13:29 Zorglub wrote: I know wcgrider is well respected on 2p2, but before he did his grinding prop bet like ½ a year ago he was not even a mod on the site, he is grinding midstakes (100K escrowed is a lot of money) and the fact that another well respected 2p2 mod recently ran away with a lot of money in a transfer with another mod, makes me worry a bit, I not claiming wcgrider would cheat though, just stating my worries... But it seems like the only way to lose, that guy is going to die or atleast go insane if he gets close to doing this, or of course it could be some sort of angleshot. And like Baal says the return is too small considering your money is escrowed for like 3 months + there is that very small risk of losing it all

That is the same concern i have, i dot trust him, if it were like Nanonoko or something like that i would do it.

Biggest risk here is trusting the escrow with your money. Also this guy is strictly a 1/2 player. He's also planning a move-up to 2/4 alongside this?

Who is placing bets on other side? Pokerpoopy most likely has a 10-15k BR MAX. Rider also plays a mix of 1/2 and 2/4. We aren't dealing with people with deep pockets here.

100% bet on one side, escrowed money, no money to pay-off if lose. Looks like a scam to me.

i never thouthg i would agree with Maynard but i do, the real risk here is the escrow.

not because of the bettor, becaus he doesnt need much money since 6 to 1 allow him to bet his entire roll, and since he will play hundreds of thousands of hands, that is not an issue since he will make it back, but we need a different escrow.

On October 17 2008 13:54 Maynard! wrote: Biggest risk here is trusting the escrow with your money. Also this guy is strictly a 1/2 player. He's also planning a move-up to 2/4 alongside this? Who is placing bets on other side? Pokerpoopy most likely has a 10-15k BR MAX. Rider also plays a mix of 1/2 and 2/4. We aren't dealing with people with deep pockets here. 100% bet on one side, escrowed money, no money to pay-off if lose. Looks like a scam to me.

He's getting 6 to 1 odds. As long as the people involved are trustworthy it should be fine. Multiple Escrow would probably be better though say 3-4 of the big names in the community so it isn't one person that is holding all the money. Considering its only $200 that he has to pay back for every $1200 in action he gets he probably can afford it and he'll probably cap the action at some point.

wcgrider is also escrow AND judge in the bet, which is a bit unusual

Good chance they're going to try to cheat somehow.

On October 17 2008 13:37 Fayth wrote: considering he doesnt even need to win, it's possible.... but yeah gotta skip christmas and shit

uh yeah he can play 8/6 and do the bare minimum to not lose a LOT... how much can you even lose playing a bunch of 1/2 6max like a huge nit that just mindlessly instafolds every hand but aces and how much does he stand to win by completing it? this would be a bet way more worth taking if he had to win at like 1ptbb+ or something on top. also yeah concerns about the trustworthiness of the escrow etc are totally legit too

its not that i dont trust wcgrider, its that i dont like him. but the fact that id have to hold up 1200 or 2400 for 73 days for 200 or 400 return is a stupid riskeward ratio.

this clearly seems like the type of bet where this guy is simply trying to motivate himself to play a bunch of hands, and figures that he will make so much money from all the hours he plays that he will easily cover the losses and then make a bunch extra. i can see this going two ways:
- he doesnt even come close to finishing the prop bet, but makes a lot of money
- he comes close (within 100k vpp) of finishing the prop bet and is breakeven

On October 17 2008 15:51 RaSZi wrote: he plays 25-50 regularly.. i doubt he will suffer a lot of significant downswings on 1-2 even though u 50 table it.. it's just too easy to beat. Dunno.. i mean.. i had 3 different weeks in which i made 100k+vpp. Hard to say.. i think i could do it.. so that kinda makes me not want to bet.. plus 6:1 is not profitable enough.. we're not all poorusers accepting 300:1 disadvantage..

You must have him confused. Pokerpoopy is 100% 1/2 player. Maybe he played high stakes once upon a time for a little bit and went bust but he puts in hundreds of thousands of hands now at 1/2.

i don't really like the smell of this bet either. not saying they are scammers or w/e just that the small % it doesn't go smoothly is way higher than most other bets i've seen like this. if this guy plays 1/2 how does he have all this extra liquid cash to escrow to wcgrider prior to the bet? i also really dislike escrowing to wcgrider. sure he's probably reliable but why the hell aren't they using someone more reputable where the money held is a small % of their net worth and not potentially more money than their current bankroll. another very big point is wcgrider and rando 1/2 guy aren't making large transfers among the high stakes community, they aren't selling pieces of themselves in bigger games, they aren't getting staked, probably 99% of the community has no idea who these guys are or what they look like. flat out, welshing on this bet would basically not effect them one bit.

agree with most of the posts here.
this is very fishy

On October 17 2008 15:51 RaSZi wrote: he plays 25-50 regularly.. i doubt he will suffer a lot of significant downswings on 1-2 even though u 50 table it.. it's just too easy to beat. Dunno.. i mean.. i had 3 different weeks in which i made 100k+vpp. Hard to say.. i think i could do it.. so that kinda makes me not want to bet.. plus 6:1 is not profitable enough.. we're not all poorusers accepting 300:1 disadvantage..

You are a SICK hero.

LP's Hero List (NoOrder):
TenBagger , F4Zi, Elky, Raszi

Now wcgrider replies in the post and ignores every post about a new escrow and says:

"Im gonna be at Jackson Rancheria today, So if you want to escrow money either

a) Send it today (My names are WCG|Rider (San Jose) at stars and WCGRider (With City S and A penguin) on FTP) and wait for tomorow for me to confirm it

or

b) Just wait till tomorrow."

heh wtf

The guy just said he as going to look for other Escrows.


any high staker in lp.net want to escrow?

Phil ivey would be a good escrow imo

Logiabs would be agood escrow imo

how about darkXpert

if youre all so sure, go bet all ur money ;P

Im a good escrow fu

On October 17 2008 19:09 Luckb0xx wrote: if youre all so sure, go bet all ur money ;P

for me its a stupid bet. locking up 2400 means im that much less likely to take higher shots where over 73 days is going to be way more +ev in taking shots than this prop bet. even if we are so bold as to assume that this prop bet is 100% win for us, which i think it is awfully close, taking that extra money out of my role, and shipping it to wcgrider who happens to be escrow and "judge" seems to be the biggest risk of this bet.

sustaining enough hands for a week or two is one thing, 2 months straight... there should be a bet on whether he loses his mind or heart failure due to the drugs he's going to take for this.

On October 17 2008 12:58 Bejamin1 wrote: He will not succeed.

big time, unless hes a robot, he also plays do darn tight at 200nl 6max.

On October 17 2008 15:51 RaSZi wrote: he plays 25-50 regularly.. i doubt he will suffer a lot of significant downswings on 1-2 even though u 50 table it.. it's just too easy to beat. Dunno.. i mean.. i had 3 different weeks in which i made 100k+vpp. Hard to say.. i think i could do it.. so that kinda makes me not want to bet.. plus 6:1 is not profitable enough.. we're not all poorusers accepting 300:1 disadvantage..

not in cash games you didnt. its not possible in cash to do it in a week

hmmm u guys are giving me doubts, i didn't realise there'd been a scammer escrow before

On October 18 2008 06:35 Jelle wrote: hmmm u guys are giving me doubts, i didn't realise there'd been a scammer escrow before

It was two 2p2 mods trading between each other, and one stole $30,000. It was a long story, and its not over yet. Search on 2p2 forum for Cornell Fiji.

thx defrag

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/news-views-gossip/2-2-ex-mod-cornell-fiji-steven-ware-stole-30k-admo-part-drei-272783/

yo guys:

some updates have been made regarding the bet.

most importantly there is now a clause that states that to win the bet, three judges must agree that noone has been deceived in any way.

100% eliminates the angling concern.

i also still need another escrow. are there any hi profile HS players here that would help out?

also, there is a new thread with all the updates.

please read the first two posts in the new thread carefully as there have been a bunch of changes for clarity.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54/...-race-sne-propbet-324205/#post6675557

guys come on a little help here?

all you guys came to the 2p2 thread and PMs talking about making big bets with another escrow, now everyones ghost when i start accomadating everyone with everything.

oh yea we also added he has to show a profit

Why would anyone bother himself with being an escrow for this bet is beyond me. Holding onto a bunch of money for some other dudes for like 3 months and having to deal with paying out stuff BLEH.

wow thanks for your help.
youre a great guy.

oh i think i mayve left this out.
1% of profit to escrow if pokerpoopy wins.

i know its not much but it could amount to $2,000 for very little work

can't he just run like -3BB/100 and still profit from this? i think this is a different situation vs ones like people making 400 buyins at NL25... i mean this is not about making a certain amount of money, all he has to do is sit at the tables. This to me would be impossible if he had to do like 3-5BB/100 as well.. but in theory he could just limp a shitton and get into flop situations to donate tons of rake right? he'd be in the red once this was over but if enough people bet him he'd come out in green right?

20x tables of FR maybe you can play 8-6 and get away with it

20x tables of 6max though is not as mechanical and the losses to exhaustion/bad mindset would be too great to cover the propbet's gain imho

On October 18 2008 23:23 Fox wrote: can't he just run like -3BB/100 and still profit from this? i think this is a different situation vs ones like people making 400 buyins at NL25... i mean this is not about making a certain amount of money, all he has to do is sit at the tables. This to me would be impossible if he had to do like 3-5BB/100 as well.. but in theory he could just limp a shitton and get into flop situations to donate tons of rake right? he'd be in the red once this was over but if enough people bet him he'd come out in green right?

he has to have >0 profit at the end.

dunno. doubt youre going to get much action runhot. if people wanted to make such a small roi on a long term investment, people invest in CDs and whatnot. if the bet was to make 250k vpps with say 15 days at the same odds, or some other ratio that was relatively similar to the current situation, I think you'd get 10x as much action.

On October 18 2008 21:01 runhot wrote: oh i think i mayve left this out. 1% of profit to escrow if pokerpoopy wins. i know its not much but it could amount to $2,000 for very little work

that's better

That sounds nice, i wonder if im high profile enough o_o

No chance if he has to profit

"What's up guys, I'm the idiot taking on this bet and ruining my life for the next few months. I got home a little late from a wedding I went to with my girlfriend, but I really wanna get this thing started as early as possible tomorrow. I have to wait until the judges get the email from pokerstars with my current VPP amount so that I can begin. I will work on getting that webcam setup tomorrow and post a link and all that.
I just wanna say that I am eager to get to know the community and can't wait to see how this baby turns out.
So, after all these posts from my boy runhot, looks like we're actually gonna get this thing up and moving. I'll talk to you all later, have a good one.
Poopy"

Nice lets get this show on the road

On October 19 2008 17:28 RaSZi wrote: well you don't show location, but the sombrero might make people suspect something.

it was his obsession with tequila that gave it away for me.

it started... webcam: http://www.stickam.com/largeChat.do?uId=176456495

edit: new link --> http://fr.justin.tv/pokerpoopy

How much action is there against him?

so insane, gl him

I'm gonna place a large bet on this, but I'd rather have someone from LP escrow. Any reputable volunteers?

id rather not be the escrow, dont really want to keep track of all the shit going on

On October 20 2008 18:43 tomson wrote: I'm gonna place a large bet on this, but I'd rather have someone from LP escrow. Any reputable volunteers?

I also wouldn't mind placing a large bet, but I dont know anyone involved in this bet, sounds like a bunch of nobodies

lol @ TalentedTom calling people nobodies

On October 17 2008 05:10 handbanana21 wrote: this guy is a serious badass if he pulls this off, i mite put like 3k or somethin on it

are you betting against yourself???

no, i was quoting the guy in my last post.

for anyone interested this bet has started, and PokerStars might take over on the escrow.

the thread has moved here:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54/...cial-race-sne-progress-thread-325502/

that'd be pretty cool if stars took care of the escrow...

gl to all betting

How much action he got?

tough start...

anyways, so apparently the internet for time warner cable is down for all of brooklyn queens and manhattan. yay....and apparently, the modem is broken, yay x2.... here i am on day 2 and only 8 hours of poker completed....i have ordered verizon and told them to come and give me their best **** immediately- it is coming tmw. or something like that... time warner is back up for the time being, so i hope until verizon comes that his works- i'm gonna keep both just as backup AMAZING START!!! uhhhhhhh so that's my morning, up at 6am and only 2 hours played by 1pm- i am about to play 48 hours straight i think cuz i'm pissed, talk to you all later pz KP

later:

down 12 BI's total, vpp's only at 412,291 = helpppppp!!!!!!! i'm gonna go to bed for 3 or 4 hours and get up at 7, hopefully playing by 7:30 and gonna have a big day tmw- night all

a 1/2 regular posted:

I have played with a him a bit in the past two days and he isn't the same player. VERY easy to play against (think straightfoward); used to be a little tricky. It sure doesn't hurt that I have coolered him a few times. I just don't see him being a winning player with his new approach especially since most regs will know that he is 24 tabling for this bet and pound on him

so yeah it wont be easy...

On October 21 2008 18:22 capaneo wrote: How much action he got?

about 60K i think

lol at least he can afford to lose around 300 buyins then in his aim for all those vpp

in the thread he states he gets around 0,45 vpp per hand. so basically he needs to play around 900k hands in 73 days.

or wait.. is it 600k vpp he needs?

doh.. he needs to be at least breakeven too.

that makes it a lot tougher

yes he needs 600 000 vpps

whats his name on stars?

and is he playing nl200 fr?

pretty sure he's fucked

So how is he doing?

On October 22 2008 09:44 lachlan wrote: whats his name on stars? and is he playing nl200 fr?

pokerpoopy i think

this guy is so fucked

talk about saving everything for the last minute

i see him mostly at 200nl 6max tables, somtimes 100nl even

They should really make a professional escrow/propbetting site where you pay 1% for some institution
to intermediate... Its much easier trusting an institution than a person, and I think there will be much
demand among rich gamblers, and if Doyle and Ivey guys starts using the service... well, 1% of 10M is 100K..

Yeah nobody is going to pay that kind of a sick fee for a basic escrow service unless they are a moron. Especially because Pokerstars may eventually provide that for free considering all the rake they charge us .

On October 25 2008 22:01 r3v wrote: They should really make a professional escrow/propbetting site where you pay 1% for some institution to intermediate... Its much easier trusting an institution than a person, and I think there will be much demand among rich gamblers, and if Doyle and Ivey guys starts using the service... well, 1% of 10M is 100K..

There is no reason for people like Doyle and Ivey to use a service that will cost them 100k lol...

A more likely proposition is that you'd just charge flat fees for transactions

On October 18 2008 15:24 RaSZi wrote: Show nested quote + On October 18 2008 03:04 Daut wrote:   On October 17 2008 15:51 RaSZi wrote: he plays 25-50 regularly.. i doubt he will suffer a lot of significant downswings on 1-2 even though u 50 table it.. it's just too easy to beat. Dunno.. i mean.. i had 3 different weeks in which i made 100k+vpp. Hard to say.. i think i could do it.. so that kinda makes me not want to bet.. plus 6:1 is not profitable enough.. we're not all poorusers accepting 300:1 disadvantage.. not in cash games you didnt. its not possible in cash to do it in a week sorry to disappoint you .. 130k hands on 10-20 do a lot for ur vpp rate

so sick, how many tables for how long per day did you play?

I believe RaSZi did a 30+ hr session a little whiles back, not sure how many tables though.

update: at 470K VPPs, he's down almost 40 buy-ins

=O

On October 29 2008 20:59 all_in_4tw wrote: update: at 470K VPPs, he's down almost 40 buy-ins =O

looooool

this guy is gonna go busto

-72 buy-ins at 541 000 vpps...

I should have bet ;(

he wont be able to play soon LOL!~

does he have to show profit?

how many buy ins can he possibly have arghh

On November 07 2008 17:02 all_in_4tw wrote: -72 buy-ins at 541 000 vpps... I should have bet ;(

LOL poor guy..

On November 07 2008 17:17 nicksson wrote: does he have to show profit?

yes

what an incredibly stupid bet

damn i regret backing out now

stupid guy, lol :D sucks though

On November 07 2008 17:46 all_in_4tw wrote: Show nested quote + On November 07 2008 17:17 nicksson wrote: does he have to show profit? yes

I didnt find that in the propbet rules ?
would be cool if u can show a link where they acutally agreed on >0 profits

On November 07 2008 18:18 PplusAD wrote: Show nested quote + On November 07 2008 17:46 all_in_4tw wrote:   On November 07 2008 17:17 nicksson wrote: does he have to show profit? yes I didnt find that in the propbet rules ? would be cool if u can show a link where they acutally agreed on >0 profits

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54/...cial-race-sne-progress-thread-325502/

PokerPoopy on Pokerstars will start on Monday, October 20, 2008, 12:00:00AM with less than 400,000 VPPs.
PokerPoopy will reach 1,000,000 VPPs and achieve Super Nova Elite before January 1, 2009, 12:00:00 AM.
PokerPoopy will show a profit > $0.
PokerPoopy will play only 6 max No Limit Holdem.
PokerPoopy will only play 1/2 NL games in which the buy in is max 100BBs.
PokerPoopy will not "short stack."
PokerPoopy will not accept any chip dumping.

But they calculated that even if he loses 200 buyins and the bet, but clears SNE, he will make >40K

really? that's fuckin cool then. I thought that the losses + the buyins would get him in the hole.

I want to be SNE now LOL

On November 07 2008 18:34 Zorglub wrote: But they calculated that even if he loses 200 buyins and the bet, but clears SNE, he will make >40K

Could someone explain this? How will him being SNE get him over 40k? The only benefits I see are a FPP multiplier rate and ability to buy $4k bonuses.

On November 07 2008 18:12 Jelle wrote: damn i regret backing out now

why? i thought everybody knew this was a 100% lock bet, we didnt bet cuz the escrow etc was too risky.

On November 07 2008 19:46 vlseph wrote: Show nested quote + On November 07 2008 18:34 Zorglub wrote: But they calculated that even if he loses 200 buyins and the bet, but clears SNE, he will make >40K Could someone explain this? How will him being SNE get him over 40k? The only benefits I see are a FPP multiplier rate and ability to buy $4k bonuses.

milestones:
400K VPPs -->4K
500K VPPs -->5K
600K VPPs -->6K
800K VPPs -->8K

Plus entries in 2 majors tournament + WCOOP main event

From 2p2:

"200 buyins = 40k + 10k lost bet = -50k

He's getting milestone bonuses for 5k, 6k, 8k, plus the 10k cash option + 18k or something for PCA+WCOOP. That right there is 47k and pretty much covers the loss. Then you count all the FPPs earned along the 600k * 3.5 = 2.1 million which is worth about 40k I think. So right there he's 37k ahead, and that doesn't even include the added worth of SNE next year which is immense.

So in the unlikely event he loses 200 buyins, he will still stand to make 37k overall for just over 2 months of worth, plus a ton of equity via SNE (an extra 1.5 million FPPs assuming he hit SNE next year, so worth another ~28k). I don't know about you but 65k is a damn good earn for 70 days at NL200, even if he is playing a crapload. I think he'd have to be down 350-400 buyins before he says to himself, damn why didn't I just spend all this time 12 tabling instead."

at this pace he will lose 306 buy-ins...

Zorglub,

That assumes he makes SNE tho

deceent chance he kills himself when he finishes on 930k VPP and -50k

On November 07 2008 20:13 all_in_4tw wrote: Show nested quote + On November 07 2008 19:46 vlseph wrote:   On November 07 2008 18:34 Zorglub wrote: But they calculated that even if he loses 200 buyins and the bet, but clears SNE, he will make >40K Could someone explain this? How will him being SNE get him over 40k? The only benefits I see are a FPP multiplier rate and ability to buy $4k bonuses. milestones: 400K VPPs -->4K 500K VPPs -->5K 600K VPPs -->6K 800K VPPs -->8K Plus entries in 2 majors tournament + WCOOP main event

Wow this seems quite sick. I assume you get each one only once and like the following year you can't get them again is that right?

is it possible that he might go busto before he gets SNE? whats his BR at

he probably is on the sickest tilt any poker player has ever experienced.

no he isn't,he is so positive about everything,pretty sick imo

On November 07 2008 19:49 Baal wrote: Show nested quote + On November 07 2008 18:12 Jelle wrote: damn i regret backing out now why? i thought everybody knew this was a 100% lock bet, we didnt bet cuz the escrow etc was too risky.

true

On November 08 2008 06:33 lebowski wrote: no he isn't,he is so positive about everything,pretty sick imo

are you serious? thats pretty amazing

On November 08 2008 10:54 Jelle wrote: Show nested quote + On November 08 2008 06:33 lebowski wrote: no he isn't,he is so positive about everything,pretty sick imo are you serious? thats pretty amazing

well if all the calculations about him getting ~30k++ even if he loses 200+ buyins are right the only thing to be pissed about is the huge amount of time he has to put in

On November 08 2008 10:54 Jelle wrote: Show nested quote + On November 08 2008 06:33 lebowski wrote: no he isn't,he is so positive about everything,pretty sick imo are you serious? thats pretty amazing

yea I'm serious,he has a very inspiring attitude,maybe it won't last but I really like it

On November 08 2008 11:09 BeMannerPenner wrote: Show nested quote + On November 08 2008 10:54 Jelle wrote:   On November 08 2008 06:33 lebowski wrote: no he isn't,he is so positive about everything,pretty sick imo are you serious? thats pretty amazing well if all the calculations about him getting ~30k++ even if he loses 200+ buyins are right the only thing to be pissed about is the huge amount of time he has to put in

in theory yes but if I was in his shoes right now i'd be on the form of tilt baal described * 10

suicide watch soon

Wait he can get 30k+ being down 200bi ??? Where do I sign in on that ship lol

if he realizes he wont make SNE and also loose the bet and loose 200bi, i cant imagine how he would feel.. damn.

On November 08 2008 17:18 Baal wrote: if he realizes he wont make SNE and also loose the bet and loose 200bi, i cant imagine how he would feel.. damn.

On November 08 2008 17:18 Baal wrote: if he realizes he wont make SNE and also loose the bet and loose 200bi, i cant imagine how he would feel.. damn.

According to the 2p2 topic he is ahead of schedule with VPP's. The real problem ( and probably whats gonna burry him ) is the +profit rule.

well hes down 100 buyins but he says:

Lastly, and most importantly if you ask me, is I will not end this bet because I still feel that I can win this thing. All it is going to take for me to win is about 1pt/100 hands, which is usually so easy that it is laughable. Times have been tough, and i may not have been playing my very best, but I have been playing pretty solid. I think a bad run coupled with the life change has caused me to lose, but mostly the bad run.

On November 08 2008 17:18 Baal wrote: if he realizes he wont make SNE and also loose the bet and loose 200bi, i cant imagine how he would feel.. damn.

Fuck, that would probably mean bustoville...

well how many buyins does he have? like isn't he down 20k right now?

On November 09 2008 14:07 DooMeR wrote: well how many buyins does he have? like isn't he down 20k right now?

I think last time it was around -75BI, not sure thou.

On a sidenote, it seems like he is getting some special bonus from PokerStars support for doing this bet on their room as well... at least according to the thread on 2p2, WCG|Rider got some special discount for EPT Barcelona package for doing the $10k @ nl25 in a month prop bet at PS.

according to his blog he is -20k now

http://pokerpoopy.blogspot.com/

-90 buy ins but he sais that even if he loses 400 buy ins he'll be breakeven and supernova elite

at the rate he is losing maybe it is profitable to sit at his tables

pretty ridiculous how he think he's just on a downswing ; like 90 buy-ins downswings are standard at theses limits rofl reminds me of FGators

reading his blog, he sounds pretty delusional about this whole affair

he's claiming he's learned more about poker than he ever thought possible during this prop bet: how the fuck do you learn when you're mass tabling a stake lower than you normally play? i've heard numerous reports from people playing against him that he's a lot easier to play against than usual, and this is no surprise. sure, you can learn how to take beats and learn how to persevere but you won't learn anything specific to the game itself: doing this requires LESS tables and indepth hand analysis

he also claims you should have a 100bi bankroll as a MINIMUM for a stake you wish to play...what the fuck? sure it might help you psychologically, but realistically the odds of going on a +50bi downswing are so unlikely for a true winner that this golden nugget of advice is laughable

yes he is a delutional idiot if he thinks a 100bi downswing is normal, i dont know if he has an edge but i dont think its over 0.5bb/100

He seems pretty arrogant. I like when arrogant people fail.

-94 BI.....wow

just remember of the 94 bi down how much of that is probably in rake

will be interesting if he gets SNE w/ time to spare and has to try to play less tables and actually focus on profiting to be able to win the bet (since profit must be > 0)

lol @ all challenges really...

wow

Wonder how Sobraoboy does it. Myself I cant do shit right if I play more than 8 tables fullring. 24 tables 6max is just sick...

On November 09 2008 23:00 MezmerizePLZ wrote: will be interesting if he gets SNE w/ time to spare and has to try to play less tables and actually focus on profiting to be able to win the bet (since profit must be > 0)

wanna bet? i give u 10 to 1