KTdd vs TheRockSays (LAG)

Villain is like 30/20/12 over small sample seems pretty LAG.

Game is 5 handed 100bb effective.

I raise KcTc to 2.5bb and it folds to the sb who raises to 10bb.

I suppose I can 4bet some of the time here but I prefer to call.

Flop (21BB)

5d 8h Kd

sb bets 6.6bb, I call

Turn (34.2 BB)

As

sb bets 20bb, ...

I think I fold here some of the time but prefer a call.

River (74.2 BB)

Jc

sb bets 26.5bb, ...

fold? call? shove?

The title of the thread says KTdd but I mean KTcc like in the hand history

Just thought it was an interesting hand. Sorry, been obsessing about poker lately.

I don't know why I sperg out so hard for poker. It's like numbers and colors and puzzles and strategy and gambling. I probably should be using the time to figure out how to go back to school for something more meaningful. Like teaching philosophy. I don't know if I have a shot at that. Poker is short-term fancy. I am unsure if I can climb the stakes in today's environment. I am playing really small games and there are actually tough regulars. Ok. Sorry, again. This is a hand history thread even though how poker fits into my life is a more important problem then this hand.

what position are we PF? it matters to determine how wide his 3b range is to start and how wide we are defending because of positions.

Assuming its like CO vs SB, i would just fold. he isnt going to have a ton of 67 type hands because positions aren't crazy loose. Then with the sizing on river a lot of weaker regs even at 1k+ underbluff these. With Jx getting there also i could see some 100NL guys just checking with like QJ. JT sometimes plus we block them

We are LJ (UTG in 6 max). (I don't know how prevalent LJ terminology is).

If QJ checks river and we block JT doesn't that make it closer to a call?

I agree with you that this spot on the river is under-bluffed probably in most pools. It's tough because this guy specifically was perceivably mixing it up with a lot of hands but I don't know the breakdown of that 12% 3bet vs utg (6max) range. It might be polarized or it might just be linear + a lot of hands.

I think solver had it at like 33% fold, 45% call, 22% shove or maybe fold closer to call I can't remember exactly and was just wondering what exploitive actions anyone would take.

I appreciate the comments DooMeR and my main motive was nostalgia for some hand discussion on lp.net and I'm getting so immersed in solver I want to take a step back sometimes and get some opinions on what actually is happening in reality / practice.

QJ would never block river imo. A solver would never do it and it would be a shit exploit imo.

12% 3b could be just sample size we need a large sample to be able to tell but even then its very few combos to bluff with for this size and random 100NL reg is very likely to just underbluff this size and use his bluffs in the larger betsize.

shove could be good tbh, Id sooner shove than call in this exact spot. If he is being very honest with his sizing, and not overly trappy with like AA, AK AJ here. Since its hard to get called, then it could be good. Especially at 100NL we might get some extra folds. Only thing that makes me want to fold though is probably absence of bluffs and potentially too strong of a range. We would really be targeting like AT tbh which we block and since we arent getting many bluff combos to fold either we probably just get called too much.

I just wanna mention don't get too caught up with exactly what the solver is doing. Use it for reference point of where the equilibirum would be if they were playing GTO. When it comes to mixed spots like this at 100NL the pool is underbluffing quite a bit. So when its a mixed call like this you can usually be right in overfolding your mixed combos. Pure combos i'd likely still call but anything mixing means its neutral EV so he cant make money from us unless he starts overbluffing the spot. Because if he is hitting equilibrium frequency that means that our mixed combos are indifferent and make the same either way. Only if he is able to overblufff the spot AND does so. Do we lose by folding. In other words he needs the available hands to use as bluffs that need to arrive at this spot and then he needs to use them. If opponent had 23o here he would bluff. Doesnt mean he can arrive at the spot with 23o ever. Being able to play earlier streets in such a way where we have bluffs left over for the river is an important skill in poker and takes a lot of study usually depending on the boards. So when a board runs where theres not a lot of natural bluffs left over, it becomes difficult for most people to find bluffs.

Damn, that's sick. I'm not ready to study board runouts vs ranges yet. But, I have been noticing certain patterns with the hands GTOW uses to bluff in some similar spots and different spots. I've noticed hands they use in certain spots and it surprises me sometimes yet makes sense when I think about it. GTOW is a fucking savage that's for sure. You high stakes players these days are all fucking menacing savages too that's for damn sure.

I don't think anyone else is going to join in

I folded river.