ASL Season 10 - Page 9

I defer to eriador/midian, but my guess for zerg rankings each matchup:

ZvZ: queen, soma, action
ZvT: queen, soulkey, soma, hero, larva.
ZvP: queen, soulkey, hero, soma, larva.

I feel like edges in ZvZ are a bit smaller than the other matchups due to the nature of build order advantages which occur even before you get to scout and feel more severe than they are vs Terran or Protoss. However, I created a spreadsheet a couple of days ago with the winrates of the top 6 Zerg players based on stats taken from sponbbang filtered for 2020. I averaged out the winrates of the top 6 ELO rated Zergs against the top 4 ELO rated Terrans, top 4 Protoss players and the other top 6 Zergs. The highest average winrate against the other top 6 Zergs was Queen, which was an average 57.95%, even higher than it was vs the top 4 Protoss players (57.91%) and way higher than any zerg has managed vs the top 4 Terrans. Granted top 4 and top 6 isn't the same and the sample sizes in mirror matchups are a lot smaller, but it's at least some evidence that these pros actually do find edges. 193 is the most and 104 games is the least sample I have for any of the top 6 Zergs in ZvZ, whereas in ZvT 351 is the smallest sample I have and 233 games is the smallest sample I have vs Protoss. Both of those samples are SoulKey btw, it seems he simply plays less than the other guys, at least as far as spon games are concerned.

Using the stats from my spreadsheet I would say the Zerg rankings are as follows:

ZvT: Soulkey > Queen > Soma > Larva > herO > ActiOn
ZvP: Queen > SoulKey > herO > ActiOn > Larva > Soma
ZvZ: Queen > Soma > ActiOn > Larva > SoulKey > herO

Daut, since you're a mathematician and probably have a better grasp of using stats than I do, what do you think is the better method for judging ability between adding all the wins and losses against a set of players and using that winrate to determine a ranking order, or take the winrates against each individual in the sample and averaging the winrates? I used the latter so that if a player had played substantially more games against Flash or Bisu their winrates aren't penalised as badly as they would be if I had just taken overall wins and losses vs the top 4 players. Hope you understand what I mean, just woke up and struggling to make sense!

Maybe the best way is to take the weighted average sum of the differences between their winrates against each specific player and the opponent's winrate in that matchup.

i.e., imagine soulkey wins in ZvT vs Flash 30% of the time, but Flash wins 78% of TvZ matches (so the zerg wins 22%). And soulkey played Flash in 30% of the matches you're looking at. You could give soulkey 8% * 30% (8% better than avg and 30% of his weighted better than average total goes to this stat) = 2.4% better than average just for Flash. Do this for every player in your group for every matchup, and I think you'll have a decent ranking for each one.

So just to kind of write a totally made up example out.
Let's say Soulkey plays against Flash, Light, Rush, and Sharp in your standings.

Winrates against zerg:
Flash 76%, Light 69%, Rush 60%, Sharp 55%

Soulkey winrates vs each:
Flash 30% (+6%), Light 40% (+11%), Rush 52% (+12%), Sharp 57% (+12%)

Soulkey frequency of playing each:
Flash 40%, Light 30%, Rush 20%, Sharp 10%

Soulkey +/-: 6%*40% + 11%*30% + 12%*20% + 12% * 10% = 2.4+3.3+2.4+1.2= +9.3%

There's a slight problem in that Flash is such a GOAT, the win %s vs him have less range. Could also do % better, so like 30/24, 40/31, 52/40, 57/45 instead, and then average those in the same way.

That makes sense tbf, but I'm a bit lazy to do it haha. I sent you the spreadsheet in discord anyway if you'd like to have a go with the stats in there and compile a ranking using the method you mention?

Edit to make a quick note: I have sOrry as the 4th Terran rather than Sharp, he's currently got a higher ELO rating on sponbbang

since this never got posted

+ Show Spoiler +

I found the 3rd place games quite enjoyable.

Larva's games are always entertaining

Small bet on Soma.

+ Show Spoiler +

+ Show Spoiler +

WOW

+ Show Spoiler +

+ Show Spoiler +

I want to see a 4 player ffa tournament lol

I haven’t watch it yet but I want queen to win cause I need a queen

It be nice to see an all random tournament 2

+ Show Spoiler +

haven't watched asl in forever and I really got into it

One of the least enjoyable seasons in recent memory, but still not too bad with some fun Flash random mixed in, but most of the games/series were just a little lopsided and the maps favored zerg a bit too much. Can't help but wonder how much different everything would have been if Light made it through. Light is absolutely wrecking people in the ultimate battle event, which is basically him playing a bo9 vs top protoss/terran players until he loses. I think he's won about 10 straight, and only person who came close was Soulkey.

edit:
Light has won 8 in a row:
7-2 hero
5-4 shuttle
7-2 larva
7-2 queen
5-4 best
5-4 soulkey
7-2 mini
6-3 snow

Really impressive stuff.