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ASL Season 10 - Page 4

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ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 06 2020 13:29. Posts 5066

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One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 06/10/2020 13:29

captainhook   Canada. Oct 06 2020 13:42. Posts 431


  On October 06 2020 12:29 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
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Liquid`Drone   Norway. Oct 06 2020 14:08. Posts 3024


  On October 06 2020 12:42 captainhook wrote:
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lol POKERLast edit: 06/10/2020 14:16

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 06 2020 14:46. Posts 5066

+1 to what drone said basically :D

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One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 06/10/2020 14:46

captainhook   Canada. Oct 06 2020 14:48. Posts 431


  On October 06 2020 13:08 Liquid`Drone wrote:
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ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 06 2020 15:00. Posts 5066


  On October 06 2020 13:48 captainhook wrote:
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One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 06 2020 15:21. Posts 431

So it's Light vs Best and Larva and Action for the Bo1 of Group B. Who you guys got? It's Light and Action for me. I have a small bet on Action.


ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 06 2020 15:32. Posts 5066

I feel it's the closest group, any of them have a decent shot of getting out the group. Light has to be the biggest favourite though, he has a positive winrate in sponbbang stats against the other 3 players in the group and he just got an all kill in the KCM racewars held today beating Best, Stork, YSC, Larva, SoulKey and Action... So he beat all 3 players in his group in that race wars. I'd say second favourite is indeed Action. I think Best is a little weaker vs Zerg overall so he is least likely, but still wouldn't be incredibly surprised if he made it.

In terms of the BO1s Light vs Best is actually close, but Light is the small favourite. Unsure what map it is though, I guess it's Sakura's Temple same as first games today? Unsure what difference that makes yet as there's very few recorded stats on that map on sponbbang.
Action vs Larva is also really close, would make Action a small favourite 55% at most.

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 06/10/2020 15:38

captainhook   Canada. Oct 06 2020 16:20. Posts 431

Light is almost -192 and Best is +137 in the betting market. The lines are pretty juiced but Light overvalued?

 Last edit: 06/10/2020 16:20

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 06 2020 16:45. Posts 5066

Those are odds for the head to head I assume? So Light has to win more than 65.8% for that bet to be +EV and Best needs to win just over 42% for the bet on him to be +EV. Think betting on Light would be a bad bet... Sponbbang stats for Best vs Light are 29:26 (52.7%) in Light's favour so it's actually a really close match on paper. The unknown factors for me are: the map, there's not many stats out there and I'm not familiar enough with PvT to discern an advantage just from looking at the map, and how well they perform offline and their current shape. Light is definitely looking strong after today's Race Wars performance, but not enough imo to justify -192. To me personally the line on Best seems about right all things considered, Light's line not enough value imo.

Personally I would avoid betting on that match though, I don't think there's a great deal of edge in to be had. If I knew enough to say that the map is a good Protoss map then I would bet on Best, if at all.

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 06/10/2020 16:48

Liquid`Drone   Norway. Oct 06 2020 17:42. Posts 3024

yea I'd say Light is a pretty solid favorite to make it through (only a slight favorite vs best, but with this map pool, he will be very hard to deal with for zergs).

In terms of them making it out I'd say something like light 70% action 55% Larva 40% best 35%, no more than a 5% adjustment to any of them anyway.

lol POKER 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Oct 06 2020 21:41. Posts 9574

TvT is such a snoozefest


whammbot   Belarus. Oct 07 2020 03:12. Posts 486

They lost me at TvT


captainhook   Canada. Oct 07 2020 05:29. Posts 431


  On October 06 2020 15:45 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
Those are odds for the head to head I assume? So Light has to win more than 65.8% for that bet to be +EV and Best needs to win just over 42% for the bet on him to be +EV. Think betting on Light would be a bad bet... Sponbbang stats for Best vs Light are 29:26 (52.7%) in Light's favour so it's actually a really close match on paper. The unknown factors for me are: the map, there's not many stats out there and I'm not familiar enough with PvT to discern an advantage just from looking at the map, and how well they perform offline and their current shape. Light is definitely looking strong after today's Race Wars performance, but not enough imo to justify -192. To me personally the line on Best seems about right all things considered, Light's line not enough value imo.

Personally I would avoid betting on that match though, I don't think there's a great deal of edge in to be had. If I knew enough to say that the map is a good Protoss map then I would bet on Best, if at all.



Yup, the bo1 between the two. And the map is on Sakura's Temple which kinda favors T I think? Not sure.. But yeah, I'm tempted to put some money on Best, but he isn't playing all that well in this tourney tho.

Anyway, let's see how soft these lines are.

 Last edit: 07/10/2020 05:31

captainhook   Canada. Oct 08 2020 10:52. Posts 431

LIVE NOW!!!



Ok.. I'm thinking these lines could actually be soft. Light doesn't have a good winrate in the ASL. Just saw the stats at the screen.

 Last edit: 08/10/2020 11:19

Liquid`Drone   Norway. Oct 08 2020 11:18. Posts 3024

most exciting group!

well also flash's.

lol POKER 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 08 2020 11:31. Posts 431


  On October 08 2020 10:18 Liquid`Drone wrote:
most exciting group!

well also flash's.



Yup!

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 Last edit: 08/10/2020 12:06

captainhook   Canada. Oct 08 2020 12:07. Posts 431

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Ok.. So which has the higher probability of picking a winner, sponnbang stats or pure ASL stats?

 Last edit: 08/10/2020 12:11

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 08 2020 12:15. Posts 5066

Prob don't wanna go by just one or the other, but a combination. Though bear in mind those ASL stats go back a long time so arent necessarily representative of their current level. For instance Shuttle won the first ASL but he's one of the biggest underdogs going into the RO16. So if its one or the other I'd take sponbbang stats, with the only downside on those being that some players are much better online than they are offline, or vice versa

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 08 2020 12:44. Posts 431


  On October 08 2020 11:15 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
Prob don't wanna go by just one or the other, but a combination. Though bear in mind those ASL stats go back a long time so arent necessarily representative of their current level. For instance Shuttle won the first ASL but he's one of the biggest underdogs going into the RO16. So if its one or the other I'd take sponbbang stats, with the only downside on those being that some players are much better online than they are offline, or vice versa



Makes sense. Thanks!

Anyway...

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 Last edit: 08/10/2020 14:48

 
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