I don't think that series shows JyJ as a good TvZ player... He won TvZ on the most imbalanced map (T > Z, despite what Artosis said) and then lost on Eclipse when he was in a great spot on multiple occasions and Queen didn't play out of his skin or anything. If anything his TvZ was quite disappointing imo
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
I don't think that series shows JyJ as a good TvZ player... He won TvZ on the most imbalanced map (T > Z, despite what Artosis said) and then lost on Eclipse when he was in a great spot on multiple occasions and Queen didn't play out of his skin or anything. If anything his TvZ was quite disappointing imo
I don't think that series shows JyJ as a good TvZ player... He won TvZ on the most imbalanced map (T > Z, despite what Artosis said) and then lost on Eclipse when he was in a great spot on multiple occasions and Queen didn't play out of his skin or anything. If anything his TvZ was quite disappointing imo
I'd say Soma is a solid favorite - although it does depend on the map. If they play shakuras temple and optimizer then Soma's skill advantage is equalized by the map disadvantage.
head to head in sponbang, Soma is 8:6 against JyJ, and Soma has a good zvt record overall (second best sponbang zvt record out of all zergs with 165-140). Whereas JyJ is a tvt specialist (67% win rate tvt, 35% tvp, 50% tvz. That places him as the 9th best tvz player according to sponbang. )
lol POKER
Last edit: 06/10/2020 14:16
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ToT)MidiaN( United Kingdom. Oct 06 2020 14:46. Posts 5070
I don't think that series shows JyJ as a good TvZ player... He won TvZ on the most imbalanced map (T > Z, despite what Artosis said) and then lost on Eclipse when he was in a great spot on multiple occasions and Queen didn't play out of his skin or anything. If anything his TvZ was quite disappointing imo
I'd say Soma is a solid favorite - although it does depend on the map. If they play shakuras temple and optimizer then Soma's skill advantage is equalized by the map disadvantage.
head to head in sponbang, Soma is 8:6 against JyJ, and Soma has a good zvt record overall (second best sponbang zvt record out of all zergs with 165-140). Whereas JyJ is a tvt specialist (67% win rate tvt, 35% tvp, 50% tvz. That places him as the 9th best tvz player according to sponbang. )
I don't think that series shows JyJ as a good TvZ player... He won TvZ on the most imbalanced map (T > Z, despite what Artosis said) and then lost on Eclipse when he was in a great spot on multiple occasions and Queen didn't play out of his skin or anything. If anything his TvZ was quite disappointing imo
I'd say Soma is a solid favorite - although it does depend on the map. If they play shakuras temple and optimizer then Soma's skill advantage is equalized by the map disadvantage.
head to head in sponbang, Soma is 8:6 against JyJ, and Soma has a good zvt record overall (second best sponbang zvt record out of all zergs with 165-140). Whereas JyJ is a tvt specialist (67% win rate tvt, 35% tvp, 50% tvz. That places him as the 9th best tvz player according to sponbang. )
So it's Light vs Best and Larva and Action for the Bo1 of Group B. Who you guys got? It's Light and Action for me. I have a small bet on Action.
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ToT)MidiaN( United Kingdom. Oct 06 2020 15:32. Posts 5070
I feel it's the closest group, any of them have a decent shot of getting out the group. Light has to be the biggest favourite though, he has a positive winrate in sponbbang stats against the other 3 players in the group and he just got an all kill in the KCM racewars held today beating Best, Stork, YSC, Larva, SoulKey and Action... So he beat all 3 players in his group in that race wars. I'd say second favourite is indeed Action. I think Best is a little weaker vs Zerg overall so he is least likely, but still wouldn't be incredibly surprised if he made it.
In terms of the BO1s Light vs Best is actually close, but Light is the small favourite. Unsure what map it is though, I guess it's Sakura's Temple same as first games today? Unsure what difference that makes yet as there's very few recorded stats on that map on sponbbang.
Action vs Larva is also really close, would make Action a small favourite 55% at most.
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
Light is almost -192 and Best is +137 in the betting market. The lines are pretty juiced but Light overvalued?
Last edit: 06/10/2020 16:20
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ToT)MidiaN( United Kingdom. Oct 06 2020 16:45. Posts 5070
Those are odds for the head to head I assume? So Light has to win more than 65.8% for that bet to be +EV and Best needs to win just over 42% for the bet on him to be +EV. Think betting on Light would be a bad bet... Sponbbang stats for Best vs Light are 29:26 (52.7%) in Light's favour so it's actually a really close match on paper. The unknown factors for me are: the map, there's not many stats out there and I'm not familiar enough with PvT to discern an advantage just from looking at the map, and how well they perform offline and their current shape. Light is definitely looking strong after today's Race Wars performance, but not enough imo to justify -192. To me personally the line on Best seems about right all things considered, Light's line not enough value imo.
Personally I would avoid betting on that match though, I don't think there's a great deal of edge in to be had. If I knew enough to say that the map is a good Protoss map then I would bet on Best, if at all.
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
Last edit: 06/10/2020 16:48
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Liquid`Drone Norway. Oct 06 2020 17:42. Posts 3093
yea I'd say Light is a pretty solid favorite to make it through (only a slight favorite vs best, but with this map pool, he will be very hard to deal with for zergs).
In terms of them making it out I'd say something like light 70% action 55% Larva 40% best 35%, no more than a 5% adjustment to any of them anyway.
On October 06 2020 15:45 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
Those are odds for the head to head I assume? So Light has to win more than 65.8% for that bet to be +EV and Best needs to win just over 42% for the bet on him to be +EV. Think betting on Light would be a bad bet... Sponbbang stats for Best vs Light are 29:26 (52.7%) in Light's favour so it's actually a really close match on paper. The unknown factors for me are: the map, there's not many stats out there and I'm not familiar enough with PvT to discern an advantage just from looking at the map, and how well they perform offline and their current shape. Light is definitely looking strong after today's Race Wars performance, but not enough imo to justify -192. To me personally the line on Best seems about right all things considered, Light's line not enough value imo.
Personally I would avoid betting on that match though, I don't think there's a great deal of edge in to be had. If I knew enough to say that the map is a good Protoss map then I would bet on Best, if at all.
Yup, the bo1 between the two. And the map is on Sakura's Temple which kinda favors T I think? Not sure.. But yeah, I'm tempted to put some money on Best, but he isn't playing all that well in this tourney tho.
Ok.. So which has the higher probability of picking a winner, sponnbang stats or pure ASL stats?
Last edit: 08/10/2020 12:11
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ToT)MidiaN( United Kingdom. Oct 08 2020 12:15. Posts 5070
Prob don't wanna go by just one or the other, but a combination. Though bear in mind those ASL stats go back a long time so arent necessarily representative of their current level. For instance Shuttle won the first ASL but he's one of the biggest underdogs going into the RO16. So if its one or the other I'd take sponbbang stats, with the only downside on those being that some players are much better online than they are offline, or vice versa
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
On October 08 2020 11:15 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
Prob don't wanna go by just one or the other, but a combination. Though bear in mind those ASL stats go back a long time so arent necessarily representative of their current level. For instance Shuttle won the first ASL but he's one of the biggest underdogs going into the RO16. So if its one or the other I'd take sponbbang stats, with the only downside on those being that some players are much better online than they are offline, or vice versa
United Kingdom. Oct 06 2020 13:29. Posts 5070
