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ASL Season 10

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blackjacki2   United States. Sep 06 2020 11:14. Posts 2581

Season 10 starts now

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Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Sep 06 2020 23:39. Posts 9634

Flash is going to play random ?:D holy fuck


Sleepy311   Vietnam. Sep 07 2020 04:23. Posts 154

Bisu!!!!!!!???????


Baalim   Mexico. Sep 07 2020 21:42. Posts 34246

nice, those were good games.

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

balakubak   . Sep 08 2020 04:12. Posts 152

where we get stats on these players?


captainhook   Canada. Sep 13 2020 07:17. Posts 466

One of the worst beats in MMA. Gamble on Stork and Noob at ASL. Lawl. Can't wait!

Edit: Changed my mind. I bet Rush and Noob. Gogogo!!!

 Last edit: 13/09/2020 07:49

blackjacki2   United States. Sep 13 2020 21:40. Posts 2581


blackjacki2   United States. Sep 13 2020 21:40. Posts 2581


captainhook   Canada. Sep 15 2020 10:52. Posts 466

Mini + Hero parlay! Let's gooo!

 Last edit: 15/09/2020 10:54

blackjacki2   United States. Sep 15 2020 11:19. Posts 2581


captainhook   Canada. Sep 15 2020 11:49. Posts 466

Easy money


blackjacki2   United States. Sep 16 2020 13:29. Posts 2581


  On September 15 2020 10:49 captainhook wrote:



We don't post spoilers in these threads. You can use spoiler tags


captainhook   Canada. Sep 17 2020 12:25. Posts 466

I didn't post spoilers. I posted my bets which I parlayed.


alejandicto   . Sep 17 2020 20:57. Posts 865


  On September 17 2020 11:25 captainhook wrote:
I didn't post spoilers. I posted my bets which I parlayed.




  On September 15 2020 10:49 captainhook wrote:
Easy money



-.-

 Last edit: 17/09/2020 20:58

blackjacki2   United States. Sep 17 2020 21:36. Posts 2581


  On September 17 2020 11:25 captainhook wrote:
I didn't post spoilers. I posted my bets which I parlayed.



Surely you can see why posting your bets and then posting "Easy money" after the match is over is a spoiler. I'm certain you're not really that stupid


Baalim   Mexico. Sep 18 2020 01:52. Posts 34246

Not satisfied with posting spoilers, you try to justify it instead of apologizing... ffs.

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro OnlineLast edit: 18/09/2020 01:53

captainhook   Canada. Sep 18 2020 07:52. Posts 466


  On September 17 2020 20:36 blackjacki2 wrote:
Show nested quote +



Surely you can see why posting your bets and then posting "Easy money" after the match is over is a spoiler. I'm certain you're not really that stupid


Oh right, sorry. I'll use the tag next time guys.


captainhook   Canada. Sep 18 2020 07:53. Posts 466


  On September 18 2020 00:52 Baalim wrote:
Not satisfied with posting spoilers, you try to justify it instead of apologizing... ffs.




I honestly overlooked the easy money part. Sorry.


Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Sep 18 2020 14:12. Posts 9634

Did someone... just ... apologize for their mistake on LP?


alejandicto   . Sep 18 2020 19:00. Posts 865


captainhook   Canada. Sep 18 2020 23:12. Posts 466

Is not apologizing a thing here?


Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Sep 19 2020 13:47. Posts 9634

I'm mostly joking, but there s plenty of people that would rather feed their egos than apologize even indirectly, anyways don't want to derail the thread further.

I can't wait to see Flash will do playing random.... this time they cant fuck him with maps but wonder if the RNG factor will play to his side.

 Last edit: 19/09/2020 13:48

captainhook   Canada. Sep 20 2020 01:44. Posts 466

^ Yup. I'm thinking of betting against him in some match ups.

Got Rush to win later.

 Last edit: 20/09/2020 01:44

blackjacki2   United States. Sep 20 2020 05:44. Posts 2581

Where do u bet at?


captainhook   Canada. Sep 20 2020 06:41. Posts 466

Pinnacle


captainhook   Canada. Sep 20 2020 11:03. Posts 466

Live now!


lostaccount   Canada. Sep 20 2020 22:48. Posts 5738

lets go jaedong he was my favourite but not hes just average

-_-;; 

lostaccount   Canada. Sep 20 2020 22:48. Posts 5738

my money is on snow now

-_-;; 

captainhook   Canada. Sep 22 2020 10:14. Posts 466

Live soon. Got Action and Sharp parlay. Lezzgoo!!


WhyYouKickMyDog   United States. Sep 28 2020 00:47. Posts 1623

Ro16 groups/schedule



ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 01 2020 01:02. Posts 5070

Predictions:
A - Queen + Rush
B - Light + Action
C - SnOw + herO (Unless FlaSh gets Terran a couple of times - in which case SnOw + FlaSh)
D - soma + SoulKey

If this comes true it would suck quite a bit since there'd only be 1 Protoss remaining, but I think Best advancing is fairly unlikely and free advancing very unlikely. I could see one of Mini or Shuttle advancing but think majority of the time it's soma + SoulKey in Group D

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 01/10/2020 01:02

nixxxbg   Bulgaria. Oct 01 2020 05:48. Posts 436

I found the group selection stage pretty strange. I don't understand why Light picked Best when there were potentially weaker players to choose from early on or why Best picked Larva. Group B seems pretty tough.


Liquid`Drone   Norway. Oct 01 2020 11:17. Posts 3093

Looking at the players in the groups zergs look really good, but looking at the maps, not so much, particularly tvz.

Polypoid tvz 962 - 729, 56.9%

Eclipse tvz 503 - 443, 53.2%

Optimizer tvz 228 - 116, 66.3%

Ringing Bloom tvz 110 - 80, 57.9%

Benzene tvz 90 - 122, 42.5%

Shakuras temple tvz 23 - 11, 67.6%

Plasma tvz 18 - 11, 62.1%

So one zerg favored map, one map within 45-55 range, and 5 pretty clearly terran favored ones. (Fair that shakuras and plasma have smaller sample sizes though.)

Pvz looks quite different, with most maps being slightly z favored - Ringing Bloom and Plasma being the only two exceptions. Plasma small sample size, but 16-7 is enough where it's big anyway.

Pvt is between 45-55% either way for every map other than Benzene, where terran is 61-39.

I still favor zero (queen) to make it from his group because he's a lot better than leta and jyj, but it's hard to picture light losing to action or larva. Agreed that group B looks really tough.

Sponbbang ranking from july - october:
1: Flash
2: Light
3: Bisu
4: Action
5: Best
6: Mini
7: Soulkey
8: I think Free
9: Zero (Queen)
10: Sorry
11: Soma
12: Rush
13: Larva
14: Sharp
15: Hero

So going with:
Queen Rush (imo most straight forward group)
Light +Action (but this group is super tough. Best and Larva are both very good)
Flash+Snow (Bad group for Flash, his z is weaker than p+t, and his pvp is weaker than his pvz and pvt. I still think he's gonna pull through though. If he was in a group facing terrans+zergs, I'd be very confident in him. At the same time, random zerg vs protoss is a really good matchup, so even though picked zvp he'd be in big trouble, I think he's only an underdog if he randoms pvp or zvz.)
And group D it's basically just.. not shuttle.
(shuttle has been a total punching bag for top zergs lately. Some select stats: 11 - 58 vs Action, 10 - 18 vs Soulkey, 10 - 46 vs Zero, 6 - 24 vs Soma, 16-56 vs Larva, 23 - 75 vs hero.. )

lol POKERLast edit: 02/10/2020 19:08

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 01 2020 17:19. Posts 5070

Agreed the maps seem to be T>Z, but regarding Queen here are his 2020 sponbbang stats vs the 3 terrans in his group:

vs ??? (Leta) 14:0 (100%)
vs ??? (JyJ) 26:11 (70.3%)
vs ??? (Rush) 57:43 (57%)

Gotta think it would be a big upset if he didn't make it out all things considered. He has looked pretty weak vs T on his Stream from what I've seen in the last week though! Really hope he makes it.

In terms of Light vs the two zergs in his group:
vs ??? (Larva) 87:56 (60.8%)
vs ??? (Action) 64:42 (60.4%)

Also surprisingly to me, Light's winrates vs P (60.3%) and T (72.1%) are better than they are vs zerg (60.2%) in 2020 sponbbang games, though this may be due to the fact that he's played WAY more games vs Z than P or T, and the bulk of those games vs Z are against the best zergs in the world; SoulKey, Queen, Soma, Action, Larva. Only SoulKey has a winning record in ZvT vs Light, and only 52% at that.

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 01 2020 18:14. Posts 5070

Got some time to kill so while we're at it, here's every head to head matchup stats from sponbbang filtered to just games played in 2020:

Group A
Queen v Leta 14:0 (100%)
Queen v JyJ 26:11 (70.3%)
Queen v Rush 57:43 (57%)
Rush v Leta no games on record
Rush v JyJ 10:10 (50%)
JyJ v Leta no games on record

JyJ v Rush a bit of a toss up, so it's very conceivable that Queen makes it out first and then it's a tossup between JyJ and Rush for the last spot. Rush of course has a better chance of beating Queen, though. Leta has fuck all games on record in general, just 189, compared to Rush who has over 2k for instance. He has to be the biggest outsider in this group... It's a fucking miracle he got this far in all honesty!

Group B
Light v Action 64:42 (60.4%)
Light v Best 29:26 (52.7%)
Light v Larva 87:56 (60.8%)
Action v Best 45:40 (52.9%)
Action v Larva 4:4 (50%)
Best v Larva 38:47 (44.7%)

Very close group... Light is the favourite, and then on paper Larva vs Action is a tossup and Best is a small underdog to all 3 players in the group. Could be any combination of 2 players really, especially if Best were to beat Light and put him in loser's match if they play first, that would really make the group exciting. Light and FlaSh are the only Terrans with a winning record vs Best in the sample I'm looking at and both are only small favourites, Best is really a savage in PvT.

Group C
FlaSh v free 4:0 (100%)
FlaSh v herO 34:10 (77.3%)
FlaSh v SnOw 25:14 (64.1%)
free v herO 14:54 (20.6%)
free v SnOw 6:6 (50%)
hero v SnOw 72:49 (59.5%)

Unsure if these stats are purely FlaSh playing Terran or not, I assume they are though so are obviously not terribly representative. If FlaSh were Terran I would pick him first and herO second based on these stats. herO is a total beast ZvP, and is underrated in general so I believe he is a favourite in a head to head with SnOw. The only toss with a positive winrate vs herO on sponbbang is Bisu, SnOw has the 2nd best winrate and herO is still winning almost 60% there! Free is basically drawing dead in this group, but has some ability to ruin SnOw's day.

Group D
Mini v Shuttle 8:4 (66.7%)
Mini v soma 55:57 (49.1%)
Mini v SoulKey 16:32 (33.3%)
Shuttle v soma 6:24 (20%)
Shuttle v SoulKey 10:18 (35.7%)
soma v SoulKey 8:4 (66.7%)

As drone said, Shuttle is drawing very thin here. He is clearly practicing hard at the moment though - There's 23 games on his sponbbang alone just for 1st October. So maybe he can spring what would certainly be considered a surprise. The other 3 players are all capable of getting out of the group, but I think Mini is the least likely of the three.

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 01/10/2020 18:15

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 01 2020 22:37. Posts 5070


  On October 01 2020 10:17 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Looking at the players in the groups zergs look really good, but looking at the maps, not so much, particularly tvz.

Polypoid tvz 962 - 729, 56.9%

Eclipse tvz 503 - 443, 53.2%

Optimizer tvz 228 - 116, 66.3%

Ringing Bloom tvz 110 - 80, 57.9%

Benzene tvz 90 - 122, 42.5%

Shakuras temple tvz 23 - 11, 67.6%

Plasma tvz 18 - 11, 62.1%

So one zerg favored map, one map within 45-55 range, and 5 pretty clearly terran favored ones. (Fair that shakuras and temple have smaller sample sizes though.)

Pvz looks quite different, with most maps being slightly z favored - Ringing Bloom and Plasma being the only two exceptions. Plasma small sample size, but 16-7 is enough where it's big anyway.

Pvt is between 45-55% either way for every map other than Benzene, where terran is 61-39.

I still favor zero (queen) to make it from his group because he's a lot better than leta and jyj, but it's hard to picture light losing to action or larva. Agreed that group B looks really tough.

Sponbbang ranking from july - october:
1: Flash
2: Light
3: Bisu
4: Action
5: Best
6: Mini
7: Soulkey
8: I think Free
9: Zero (Queen)
10: Sorry
11: Soma
12: Rush
13: Larva
14: Sharp
15: Hero

So going with:
Queen Rush (imo most straight forward group)
Light +Action (but this group is super tough. Best and Larva are both very good)
Flash+Snow (Bad group for Flash, his z is weaker than p+t, and his pvp is weaker than his pvz and pvt. I still think he's gonna pull through though. If he was in a group facing terrans+zergs, I'd be very confident in him. At the same time, random zerg vs protoss is a really good matchup, so even though picked zvp he'd be in big trouble, I think he's only an underdog if he randoms pvp or zvz.)
And group D it's basically just.. not shuttle.
(shuttle has been a total punching bag for top zergs lately. Some select stats: 11 - 58 vs Action, 10 - 18 vs Soulkey, 10 - 46 vs Zero, 6 - 24 vs Soma, 16-56 vs Larva, 23 - 75 vs hero.. )



#8 is SnOw btw.
Free is now #15 though, pushing herO back to #16

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 01/10/2020 22:39

captainhook   Canada. Oct 02 2020 10:09. Posts 466


  On October 01 2020 00:02 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
Predictions:
A - Queen + Rush
B - Light + Action
C - SnOw + herO (Unless FlaSh gets Terran a couple of times - in which case SnOw + FlaSh)
D - soma + SoulKey

If this comes true it would suck quite a bit since there'd only be 1 Protoss remaining, but I think Best advancing is fairly unlikely and free advancing very unlikely. I could see one of Mini or Shuttle advancing but think majority of the time it's soma + SoulKey in Group D



Mostly agree. I think Shuttle could have a slight chance of going thru tho.

As for my bets, got Rush and Light parlay, Snow and Soma parlay, betting small on Free playing random Flash.

Figured sponbbang out.

Cancel the Snow, Soma parlay. I think Hero got this and he's the underdog. Adding that and Soma, Soulkey parlay.

So gonna get Rush - Light parlay, Soma - Soulkey parlay, Hero and gamble on Free. All for plus money.

 Last edit: 03/10/2020 06:18

captainhook   Canada. Oct 02 2020 10:17. Posts 466


  On October 01 2020 10:17 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Looking at the players in the groups zergs look really good, but looking at the maps, not so much, particularly tvz.

Polypoid tvz 962 - 729, 56.9%

Eclipse tvz 503 - 443, 53.2%

Optimizer tvz 228 - 116, 66.3%

Ringing Bloom tvz 110 - 80, 57.9%

Benzene tvz 90 - 122, 42.5%

Shakuras temple tvz 23 - 11, 67.6%

Plasma tvz 18 - 11, 62.1%

So one zerg favored map, one map within 45-55 range, and 5 pretty clearly terran favored ones. (Fair that shakuras and temple have smaller sample sizes though.)

Pvz looks quite different, with most maps being slightly z favored - Ringing Bloom and Plasma being the only two exceptions. Plasma small sample size, but 16-7 is enough where it's big anyway.

Pvt is between 45-55% either way for every map other than Benzene, where terran is 61-39.



Where did you get those stats?


ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 02 2020 12:46. Posts 5070

The stats can be found on sponbbang.com

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 02 2020 12:56. Posts 5070


  On October 02 2020 09:09 captainhook wrote:
Show nested quote +



Mostly agree. I think Shuttle could have a slight chance of going thru tho.

As for my bets, got Rush and Light parlay, Snow and Soma parlay, betting small on Free playing random Flash.


I think 3 players are almost certainly not gonna make it out, check the full stats write up I did a few posts above. Those players being Leta, free and Shuttle lol. Of course at this level in a bo1 anyone has SOME chance but looking at stats it would be very surprising if any of those 3 made it out. Wouldn't be a giant surprise if any of the other 13 players made it through though imo.

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 02 2020 15:51. Posts 466

Sad Shuttle went to that group at the last minute.. I think he has been playing well and could push thru to the finals if he makes Ro.8.

 Last edit: 02/10/2020 15:54

captainhook   Canada. Oct 03 2020 05:16. Posts 466

Figured sponbbang out.

Cancel the Snow, Soma parlay. I think Hero got this and he's the underdog. Adding that and Soma, Soulkey parlay.

So gonna get Rush - Light parlay, Soma - Soulkey parlay, Hero and gamble on Free. All for plus money.

And what do you guys think of Action vs Larva? The line is close.

 Last edit: 03/10/2020 06:22

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 03 2020 12:04. Posts 5070

Perhaps herO is a betting underdog, because he has never really achieved that much in offline tournaments. He's great ZvP in practice games online, but can he deliver on stage? SnOw has delivered before. So, although the map pool and herO v SnOw head to heads stats favour herO, that might not translate to an advantage in this tournament setting.

Action v Larva looked at in more detail in the post below.

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 03/10/2020 12:20

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 03 2020 12:19. Posts 5070

Ok so had a look at a few more stats to try and figure out a favourite between Action and Larva. Here are their respective winrates against the other 4 remaining zergs in ASL (herO, Queen, soma, SoulKey)

Action Overall ZvZ 130:107 (54.9%)
Action v herO 15 : 9 (62.5%)
Action v Queen 13:13 (50%)
Action v soma 7:12 (36.8%)
Action v SoulKey 12:13 (48%)
Combined vs the 4 above 47:47 (50%)

Larva Overall ZvZ 86:84 (50.6%)
Larva v herO 17:21 (44.7%)
Larva v Queen 12:15 (44.4%)
Larva v soma 12:16 (42.9%)
Larva v SoulKey 4:4 (50%)
Combined vs the 4 above 45:56 (44.6%)

The overall stat can be taken with a pinch of salt since obviously it's going to depend largely on the number of games played against top competition and the number of games played against weaker players. However, Action has a better winrate overall for what that's worth, and also when focusing just on games played against the 4 zergs remaining in ASL, we can see that Action has faired better there also.

So I think it would probably be fair to call Action a small favourite. Larva is also well known for underdelivering in offline events, but Action has a lot of hype around him at the moment so that could play a part and get to him also.

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 03/10/2020 12:26

Liquid`Drone   Norway. Oct 03 2020 13:20. Posts 3093

Action a small favorite seems right, but it's in the 55-45 or 60-40 range tops.

lol POKER 

Daut    United States. Oct 03 2020 17:02. Posts 8955

Any sponbang stats on Flash as random or off race? His P seems pretty solid, his Z seems good but a bit worse.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 03 2020 22:30. Posts 5070

Not that I'm aware of :/

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 04 2020 03:03. Posts 466


  On October 03 2020 16:02 Daut wrote:
Any sponbang stats on Flash as random or off race? His P seems pretty solid, his Z seems good but a bit worse.



We'll see... Free is +450 in some books.


captainhook   Canada. Oct 04 2020 03:31. Posts 466

Haha Condit showed everybody.

Wrong thread.

 Last edit: 04/10/2020 03:32

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 04 2020 18:55. Posts 5070


  On October 04 2020 02:03 captainhook wrote:
Show nested quote +



We'll see... Free is +450 in some books.


+450 to get out the group? bad value even at that if so imo

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 04 2020 19:10. Posts 466

To beat random Flash. I'm gambling.


ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 04 2020 19:43. Posts 5070

Could be reasonable in bo1 then! He probably has an ok shot if it's PvP

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Oct 04 2020 20:34. Posts 9634

I feel like everyone is going to expect Flash to just cheese the shit out of them, but he ends up playing the macro game and dominates them


ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 04 2020 20:38. Posts 5070

Well Flash prob has the best mechanics of all time so :D
If that translates to his offraces he should still be trying to play straight up

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 05 2020 05:37. Posts 466


  On October 04 2020 18:43 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
Could be reasonable in bo1 then! He probably has an ok shot if it's PvP



It's vs Free tho. So dunno. Maybe.


Baalim   Mexico. Oct 05 2020 21:21. Posts 34246

It will be interesting to see the scouting and openings of opponents vs Flash.

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 06 2020 02:06. Posts 466


  On October 05 2020 20:21 Baalim wrote:
It will be interesting to see the scouting and openings of opponents vs Flash.



Safest would prolly be to assume he drew T then adjust from there once scouted.


Baalim   Mexico. Oct 06 2020 07:03. Posts 34246


  On October 06 2020 01:06 captainhook wrote:
Show nested quote +



Safest would prolly be to assume he drew T then adjust from there once scouted.


I dont think so because you have to protect yourself from zergling rush, if you assume T and go greedy fast expo you are dead.

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 06 2020 10:00. Posts 466


  On October 06 2020 06:03 Baalim wrote:
Show nested quote +



I dont think so because you have to protect yourself from zergling rush, if you assume T and go greedy fast expo you are dead.



Right! Damn... I'm actually more excited to see it now.


captainhook   Canada. Oct 06 2020 11:06. Posts 466

LIVE NOW!



+ Show Spoiler +



+ Show Spoiler +



Winner's round is bo3 at ro.16? I don't think I remember ASL had it from the seasons before this.

+ Show Spoiler +


 Last edit: 06/10/2020 12:52

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 06 2020 13:29. Posts 5070

+ Show Spoiler +

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 06/10/2020 13:29

captainhook   Canada. Oct 06 2020 13:42. Posts 466


  On October 06 2020 12:29 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +




+ Show Spoiler +


Liquid`Drone   Norway. Oct 06 2020 14:08. Posts 3093


  On October 06 2020 12:42 captainhook wrote:
Show nested quote +



+ Show Spoiler +




+ Show Spoiler +

lol POKERLast edit: 06/10/2020 14:16

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 06 2020 14:46. Posts 5070

+1 to what drone said basically :D

+ Show Spoiler +

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 06/10/2020 14:46

captainhook   Canada. Oct 06 2020 14:48. Posts 466


  On October 06 2020 13:08 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Show nested quote +



+ Show Spoiler +




+ Show Spoiler +


ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 06 2020 15:00. Posts 5070


  On October 06 2020 13:48 captainhook wrote:
Show nested quote +



+ Show Spoiler +




+ Show Spoiler +

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 06 2020 15:21. Posts 466

So it's Light vs Best and Larva and Action for the Bo1 of Group B. Who you guys got? It's Light and Action for me. I have a small bet on Action.


ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 06 2020 15:32. Posts 5070

I feel it's the closest group, any of them have a decent shot of getting out the group. Light has to be the biggest favourite though, he has a positive winrate in sponbbang stats against the other 3 players in the group and he just got an all kill in the KCM racewars held today beating Best, Stork, YSC, Larva, SoulKey and Action... So he beat all 3 players in his group in that race wars. I'd say second favourite is indeed Action. I think Best is a little weaker vs Zerg overall so he is least likely, but still wouldn't be incredibly surprised if he made it.

In terms of the BO1s Light vs Best is actually close, but Light is the small favourite. Unsure what map it is though, I guess it's Sakura's Temple same as first games today? Unsure what difference that makes yet as there's very few recorded stats on that map on sponbbang.
Action vs Larva is also really close, would make Action a small favourite 55% at most.

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 06/10/2020 15:38

captainhook   Canada. Oct 06 2020 16:20. Posts 466

Light is almost -192 and Best is +137 in the betting market. The lines are pretty juiced but Light overvalued?

 Last edit: 06/10/2020 16:20

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 06 2020 16:45. Posts 5070

Those are odds for the head to head I assume? So Light has to win more than 65.8% for that bet to be +EV and Best needs to win just over 42% for the bet on him to be +EV. Think betting on Light would be a bad bet... Sponbbang stats for Best vs Light are 29:26 (52.7%) in Light's favour so it's actually a really close match on paper. The unknown factors for me are: the map, there's not many stats out there and I'm not familiar enough with PvT to discern an advantage just from looking at the map, and how well they perform offline and their current shape. Light is definitely looking strong after today's Race Wars performance, but not enough imo to justify -192. To me personally the line on Best seems about right all things considered, Light's line not enough value imo.

Personally I would avoid betting on that match though, I don't think there's a great deal of edge in to be had. If I knew enough to say that the map is a good Protoss map then I would bet on Best, if at all.

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 06/10/2020 16:48

Liquid`Drone   Norway. Oct 06 2020 17:42. Posts 3093

yea I'd say Light is a pretty solid favorite to make it through (only a slight favorite vs best, but with this map pool, he will be very hard to deal with for zergs).

In terms of them making it out I'd say something like light 70% action 55% Larva 40% best 35%, no more than a 5% adjustment to any of them anyway.

lol POKER 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Oct 06 2020 21:41. Posts 9634

TvT is such a snoozefest


whammbot   Belarus. Oct 07 2020 03:12. Posts 517

They lost me at TvT


captainhook   Canada. Oct 07 2020 05:29. Posts 466


  On October 06 2020 15:45 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
Those are odds for the head to head I assume? So Light has to win more than 65.8% for that bet to be +EV and Best needs to win just over 42% for the bet on him to be +EV. Think betting on Light would be a bad bet... Sponbbang stats for Best vs Light are 29:26 (52.7%) in Light's favour so it's actually a really close match on paper. The unknown factors for me are: the map, there's not many stats out there and I'm not familiar enough with PvT to discern an advantage just from looking at the map, and how well they perform offline and their current shape. Light is definitely looking strong after today's Race Wars performance, but not enough imo to justify -192. To me personally the line on Best seems about right all things considered, Light's line not enough value imo.

Personally I would avoid betting on that match though, I don't think there's a great deal of edge in to be had. If I knew enough to say that the map is a good Protoss map then I would bet on Best, if at all.



Yup, the bo1 between the two. And the map is on Sakura's Temple which kinda favors T I think? Not sure.. But yeah, I'm tempted to put some money on Best, but he isn't playing all that well in this tourney tho.

Anyway, let's see how soft these lines are.

 Last edit: 07/10/2020 05:31

captainhook   Canada. Oct 08 2020 10:52. Posts 466

LIVE NOW!!!



Ok.. I'm thinking these lines could actually be soft. Light doesn't have a good winrate in the ASL. Just saw the stats at the screen.

 Last edit: 08/10/2020 11:19

Liquid`Drone   Norway. Oct 08 2020 11:18. Posts 3093

most exciting group!

well also flash's.

lol POKER 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 08 2020 11:31. Posts 466


  On October 08 2020 10:18 Liquid`Drone wrote:
most exciting group!

well also flash's.



Yup!

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 Last edit: 08/10/2020 12:06

captainhook   Canada. Oct 08 2020 12:07. Posts 466

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Ok.. So which has the higher probability of picking a winner, sponnbang stats or pure ASL stats?

 Last edit: 08/10/2020 12:11

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 08 2020 12:15. Posts 5070

Prob don't wanna go by just one or the other, but a combination. Though bear in mind those ASL stats go back a long time so arent necessarily representative of their current level. For instance Shuttle won the first ASL but he's one of the biggest underdogs going into the RO16. So if its one or the other I'd take sponbbang stats, with the only downside on those being that some players are much better online than they are offline, or vice versa

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 08 2020 12:44. Posts 466


  On October 08 2020 11:15 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
Prob don't wanna go by just one or the other, but a combination. Though bear in mind those ASL stats go back a long time so arent necessarily representative of their current level. For instance Shuttle won the first ASL but he's one of the biggest underdogs going into the RO16. So if its one or the other I'd take sponbbang stats, with the only downside on those being that some players are much better online than they are offline, or vice versa



Makes sense. Thanks!

Anyway...

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 Last edit: 08/10/2020 14:48

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 08 2020 16:22. Posts 5070

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One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 08/10/2020 16:23

Liquid`Drone   Norway. Oct 09 2020 15:16. Posts 3093

+ Show Spoiler +

lol POKERLast edit: 09/10/2020 18:34

Daut    United States. Oct 09 2020 16:20. Posts 8955

+ Show Spoiler +

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, DautLast edit: 09/10/2020 16:22

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Oct 09 2020 17:00. Posts 9634

Drone ........


Liquid`Drone   Norway. Oct 09 2020 18:34. Posts 3093

whoops sorry :'(

lol POKER 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 10 2020 11:57. Posts 466

What's everybody's lean for Hero vs Snow? Hero is 72 - 49 vs Snow over a 1.5ish year sample:

https://sponbbang.com/search/?search_...me=&game_memo=&write_mb_nick=

And 521 - 290 vs toss over the same sample size:

https://sponbbang.com/search/?search_...me=&game_memo=&write_mb_nick=

Yet the books have him at +113 or so, depending where you look. Soft line or do the books see something I don't?

Oh and the match is going to be on Sakura's Temple. 13 - 9 for Z. That's a very small sample tho.

 Last edit: 10/10/2020 12:30

Liquid`Drone   Norway. Oct 10 2020 20:15. Posts 3093

Light beat Zero 7-2 today.

I think the bookies are pretty bad at setting odds and go based on reputation or 'overall skill level' rather than matchup/map specific odds. Snow has a slightly bigger name, but I would be inclined to agree that Hero is the favorite. Again, not by a lot, bo1s between players at this level are almost always highly volatile.

lol POKER 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 10 2020 23:43. Posts 466

Where did they play?


captainhook   Canada. Oct 11 2020 03:39. Posts 466

Gotta sleep now and wake up early for this!

ASL 10 Ro16 DAY 3!


Artosis Thoughts on Random Flash

 Last edit: 11/10/2020 04:56

WhyYouKickMyDog   United States. Oct 11 2020 09:11. Posts 1623


  On October 10 2020 22:43 captainhook wrote:
Where did they play?




Lots of awesome games.


captainhook   Canada. Oct 11 2020 11:05. Posts 466

Thanks Dog.

RANDOM FLASH LIVE NOW!!!

ASL 10 Ro16 DAY 3!


captainhook   Canada. Oct 11 2020 11:23. Posts 466

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Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Oct 11 2020 11:38. Posts 9634

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captainhook   Canada. Oct 11 2020 11:43. Posts 466


  On October 11 2020 10:38 Spitfiree wrote:
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captainhook   Canada. Oct 11 2020 12:02. Posts 466

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captainhook   Canada. Oct 11 2020 12:28. Posts 466

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 Last edit: 11/10/2020 12:30

Liquid`Drone   Norway. Oct 11 2020 12:29. Posts 3093

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lol POKER 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 11 2020 12:42. Posts 466


  On October 11 2020 11:29 Liquid`Drone wrote:
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+ Show Spoiler +

 Last edit: 11/10/2020 12:43

captainhook   Canada. Oct 11 2020 15:07. Posts 466

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 Last edit: 11/10/2020 15:07

Daut    United States. Oct 11 2020 21:05. Posts 8955

Some amazing games in there. Cannot believe what I witnessed honestly.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Oct 11 2020 23:07. Posts 9634

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blackjacki2   United States. Oct 12 2020 02:33. Posts 2581

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captainhook   Canada. Oct 12 2020 03:04. Posts 466


  On October 12 2020 01:33 blackjacki2 wrote:
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captainhook   Canada. Oct 13 2020 12:12. Posts 466



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 Last edit: 13/10/2020 14:51

Daut    United States. Oct 14 2020 04:20. Posts 8955

That Soulkey vs Mini base trading game was fucking awesome.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

CrownRoyal   United States. Oct 14 2020 14:22. Posts 11385

It mega tilts me that none of the protoss players make dark archons.

just by morphing one and having it they cannot do the muta templar snipe maneuver. Not to mention there is basically no way that it doesn't redeem some form of value by guaranteeing a godly storm on a single group of hydras at the very minimum.

WHAT IS THIS 

CrownRoyal   United States. Oct 14 2020 14:23. Posts 11385

also the quality of games this season has been spectacular.

WHAT IS THIS 

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 14 2020 16:11. Posts 5070

I personally haven't been blown away by the games at all, been the odd decent one here and there but lots of one sided games on the whole. The best is still yet to come yet though I think, looking forward to some close bo5 series

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 14 2020 16:46. Posts 466


  On October 14 2020 15:11 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
I personally haven't been blown away by the games at all, been the odd decent one here and there but lots of one sided games on the whole. The best is still yet to come yet though I think, looking forward to some close bo5 series



It's..

Flash vs Rush
Soma vs Snow
Larva vs Soulkey
Zero vs Best

.. I think Soma vs Snow and Larva vs Soulkey could be close. Leaning Soma and Larva.

I'd like to drop some action on Rush too. I think Flash got lucky in a couple of spots vs Snow.


blackjacki2   United States. Oct 14 2020 20:17. Posts 2581


  On October 14 2020 15:11 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
I personally haven't been blown away by the games at all, been the odd decent one here and there but lots of one sided games on the whole. The best is still yet to come yet though I think, looking forward to some close bo5 series



Really? I thought groups B and C had some of the best series of games we have had in a long time


Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Oct 14 2020 20:39. Posts 9634


  On October 14 2020 15:46 captainhook wrote:
I think Flash got lucky in a couple of spots vs Snow.


How? Snow should've won both games, Flash just completely outplayed him and its not that Snow played poorly either, he brought his A game

 Last edit: 14/10/2020 20:40

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 14 2020 20:57. Posts 5070


  On October 14 2020 19:17 blackjacki2 wrote:
Show nested quote +



Really? I thought groups B and C had some of the best series of games we have had in a long time


Group B was exciting I thought, but largely because the players who were expected to advance by most didn't happen to make it, but the games themselves I thought were somewhat meh. It's probably cause I'm a zerg player cause I didn't enjoy any of the games Larva or Action played, but did think all of the games between Light and Best were very good.

Group C I enjoyed the very last game between SnOw and Free, that was a real edge of the seat game, and from my perspective, really hoping for SnOw to pull through. Nothing else was truly memorable to me though. None of the good games in RO16 involved a Zerg and that's probably where my disappointment lies.

In Group D, even though the games weren't close Soma does look like a beast. Hopefully get some close back and forth games between him and SnOw, that series has a lot of promise.

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 14/10/2020 20:57

captainhook   Canada. Oct 18 2020 10:28. Posts 466

Live soon!

ASL 10 Ro8. Flash, Random vs Rush, Terran


captainhook   Canada. Oct 18 2020 11:55. Posts 466

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blackjacki2   United States. Oct 18 2020 12:27. Posts 2581

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Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Oct 18 2020 17:02. Posts 9634


  On October 18 2020 11:27 blackjacki2 wrote:
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 Last edit: 18/10/2020 17:05

blackjacki2   United States. Oct 19 2020 01:09. Posts 2581

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captainhook   Canada. Oct 19 2020 03:16. Posts 466


  On October 19 2020 00:09 blackjacki2 wrote:
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blackjacki2   United States. Oct 19 2020 12:25. Posts 2581


  On October 19 2020 02:16 captainhook wrote:
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captainhook   Canada. Oct 19 2020 14:32. Posts 466


  On October 19 2020 11:25 blackjacki2 wrote:
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captainhook   Canada. Oct 20 2020 11:01. Posts 466

LIVE!

ASL 10 Ro8. Soma (Z) vs Snow (P)



Soma's odds dropped from -140 to -277. Looks like I'm gonna win one! Woohoo!


captainhook   Canada. Oct 20 2020 12:01. Posts 466

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 Last edit: 20/10/2020 12:23

DooMeR   United States. Oct 20 2020 17:13. Posts 8544


  On October 20 2020 11:01 captainhook wrote:
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i dont recall if they've played in ASL before. I would imagine so, but Soma is actually pretty known for his zvT. He has had one of the best zvts in the world for a while now. So all in all very terrifying player. So he def has an amazing chance vs flash because he can take games off of his terran. And flash for sure is going to struggle vs him zvz and pvz.

I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance, by running away from the scene of an accident.Last edit: 20/10/2020 17:14

PoorUser    United States. Oct 20 2020 21:53. Posts 7471

flash is at least 2-0 vs soma in asl, though the games i can remember were fairly competitive

Gambler Emeritus 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 21 2020 00:42. Posts 466

Ok. Let's see how the books price the match up. I hope they overvalue Flash.


ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 21 2020 01:30. Posts 5070

Soma is very likely the best zerg in the world overall at the moment

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

Daut    United States. Oct 21 2020 02:21. Posts 8955

I think Soma should be a favorite. Seems like he would be losing less EV vs terran than he gains vs protoss and zerg, and most of the maps seem a little tilted towards Z.

I'm unsure on how to rank the zergs. ZvZ seems kinda random (i.e. is the best ZvZ 60% in 1 match vs the 5th best ZvZ?), ZvP seems soulkey/zero are the best, and ZvT I do like soma but it's probably close with soulkey.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 21 2020 03:46. Posts 466

Just wondering what you guys think of Soulkey's ZvZ and vs Larva specfically. Soulkey is +120. Value or not?

Larva is -165.


Daut    United States. Oct 21 2020 05:09. Posts 8955

I can't say for certain, never watch much ZvZ outside ASL. I tend to like larva's style of getting a base and making spores and then eventually having more mutas and being able to control the map with protection at home. I always thought action had fantastic ZvZ (possibly even the best?) and larva beat him in ro16, whereas soulkey seems more similar to queen where they have unreal zvt/zvp and are a little weaker zvz.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, DautLast edit: 21/10/2020 05:09

captainhook   Canada. Oct 21 2020 10:37. Posts 466


  On October 21 2020 04:09 Daut wrote:
I can't say for certain, never watch much ZvZ outside ASL. I tend to like larva's style of getting a base and making spores and then eventually having more mutas and being able to control the map with protection at home. I always thought action had fantastic ZvZ (possibly even the best?) and larva beat him in ro16, whereas soulkey seems more similar to queen where they have unreal zvt/zvp and are a little weaker zvz.



It's strange that these two never played that much over a three year sample.

https://sponbbang.com/search/?&se...e_memo=&write_mb_nick=&page=1

38 games don't really show that much. I'm not feeling all too good in my Larva/Zero parlay right now.


DooMeR   United States. Oct 21 2020 18:03. Posts 8544


  On October 21 2020 02:46 captainhook wrote:
Just wondering what you guys think of Soulkey's ZvZ and vs Larva specfically. Soulkey is +120. Value or not?

Larva is -165.



i am horrible when it comes to these numbers. but id say say soulkey is favorite though not by a huge margin. maybe 55% or something. its zvz which can be flippy when people are similar skill imo.

I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance, by running away from the scene of an accident. 

Baalim   Mexico. Oct 21 2020 23:27. Posts 34246


  On October 21 2020 01:21 Daut wrote:
I think Soma should be a favorite. Seems like he would be losing less EV vs terran than he gains vs protoss and zerg, and most of the maps seem a little tilted towards Z.

I'm unsure on how to rank the zergs. ZvZ seems kinda random (i.e. is the best ZvZ 60% in 1 match vs the 5th best ZvZ?), ZvP seems soulkey/zero are the best, and ZvT I do like soma but it's probably close with soulkey.



But theres also EV in the uncertainty, lets say Soma vs (T) Flash is 40% to win, but Soma vs (R) Terran Flash is 30% due to non-ideal BO.

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Oct 22 2020 09:11. Posts 9634

Soma vs Flash is the real final


whammbot   Belarus. Oct 22 2020 09:49. Posts 517

soulkey's zvz is very mediocre. larva's ain't nothing to call home about too but as are all zergs who aren't in the top 1 to 3. larva though has a bit of momentum lately while soulkey is in a huge slump


ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Oct 22 2020 10:21. Posts 5070

I don't think either Larva or Soulkey are really ZvZ standouts. I think Larva is the small favourite in reality, but -165 is too steep to be a +EV bet in my eyes. Nobody has really dominated ZvZ in the fashion Jaedong once did and nobody really stands out above anyone else when you're talking about the top half-a-dozen or so Zergs.

Regarding Soma, he has gone 0-5 vs Bisu in sponbbang games today! I still think he's currently the best Zerg overall though. He seems to have highest winrates ZvZ vs every other top Zerg I've checked stats of, he's consistently the most difficult opponent for the top Terran players along with SoulKey and consistently very strong in ZvP also. Must say though, it was a real shame Bisu threw it hard in the group stages, he still is crushing it online and could've gone far in this ASL given how strong he is vs Zerg, and with so many Zergs remaining.

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

DooMeR   United States. Oct 22 2020 14:23. Posts 8544


  On October 22 2020 09:21 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
I don't think either Larva or Soulkey are really ZvZ standouts. I think Larva is the small favourite in reality, but -165 is too steep to be a +EV bet in my eyes. Nobody has really dominated ZvZ in the fashion Jaedong once did and nobody really stands out above anyone else when you're talking about the top half-a-dozen or so Zergs.

Regarding Soma, he has gone 0-5 vs Bisu in sponbbang games today! I still think he's currently the best Zerg overall though. He seems to have highest winrates ZvZ vs every other top Zerg I've checked stats of, he's consistently the most difficult opponent for the top Terran players along with SoulKey and consistently very strong in ZvP also. Must say though, it was a real shame Bisu threw it hard in the group stages, he still is crushing it online and could've gone far in this ASL given how strong he is vs Zerg, and with so many Zergs remaining.



ye it rly seems bisu has just been underperforming for quite a while. His pvt not being amazing also kind of hurts him. I watch terran streams frequently and it always seems like stork does way better than bisu. Granted stork is known for good pvt but still. Terrans nowadays seem to be doing quite well vs protoss except snow. So he really needs to bring that MU up a bit.

I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance, by running away from the scene of an accident. 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 27 2020 11:10. Posts 466

LIVE NOW!!

Queen vs Best, Ro8, Bo5.

 Last edit: 27/10/2020 11:11

captainhook   Canada. Oct 27 2020 11:19. Posts 466

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blackjacki2   United States. Oct 27 2020 11:49. Posts 2581

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captainhook   Canada. Oct 27 2020 11:52. Posts 466


  On October 27 2020 10:49 blackjacki2 wrote:
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Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Oct 27 2020 23:12. Posts 9634

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DooMeR   United States. Oct 28 2020 00:34. Posts 8544

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I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance, by running away from the scene of an accident. 

PoorUser    United States. Oct 28 2020 02:35. Posts 7471

lol at however betting sites try to set the line on flash vs soma

Gambler Emeritus 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Oct 28 2020 09:53. Posts 9634


  On October 28 2020 01:35 PoorUser wrote:
lol at however betting sites try to set the line on flash vs soma



Any betting sites open to Europeans for BW? Thought Pinnacle would have it but they don't

 Last edit: 28/10/2020 09:54

Daut    United States. Oct 29 2020 07:14. Posts 8955

b07, Flash -182 Soma +135

I disagree with it. These maps are strong for zerg, and also kind of strong against random (free expansions, easy to block ramps, semi island map, 2 player map). But that's a lot of vig too, and obviously Flash can pull some surprises out with P or Z and is a large favorite with T. IDK, I still think it's close to a flip but leaning Soma.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 29 2020 09:33. Posts 466


  On October 29 2020 06:14 Daut wrote:
b07, Flash -182 Soma +135

I disagree with it. These maps are strong for zerg, and also kind of strong against random (free expansions, easy to block ramps, semi island map, 2 player map). But that's a lot of vig too, and obviously Flash can pull some surprises out with P or Z and is a large favorite with T. IDK, I still think it's close to a flip but leaning Soma.



What do you think the exact wins - losses for Soma would be? There's a book that's laying +560 or so for Soma to win 4 - 3, 4 - 2.

If Soma wins this, I think Flash could win at least two games in the series... Dunno.

 Last edit: 29/10/2020 09:33

captainhook   Canada. Oct 29 2020 09:35. Posts 466


  On October 28 2020 08:53 Spitfiree wrote:
Show nested quote +



Any betting sites open to Europeans for BW? Thought Pinnacle would have it but they don't


https://www.pinnacle.com/en/esports/s.../flash-match-vs-soma-match/1199270863


whammbot   Belarus. Oct 29 2020 23:44. Posts 517

it is back to the zerg era boys


Baalim   Mexico. Oct 30 2020 01:34. Posts 34246

when will the Ro4 be played?

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro OnlineLast edit: 30/10/2020 01:34

Daut    United States. Oct 30 2020 02:07. Posts 8955

I think Saturday night for us

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

Daut    United States. Oct 30 2020 06:35. Posts 8955



One of the best series I can remember. Lots of maps used in this ASL.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

blackjacki2   United States. Nov 01 2020 10:38. Posts 2581



Day 1 of Ro4 featuring Random Flash. Let's go!


Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Nov 01 2020 18:34. Posts 9634

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Loco   Canada. Nov 01 2020 21:58. Posts 20963

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fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount 

Daut    United States. Nov 01 2020 22:39. Posts 8955

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NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

Loco   Canada. Nov 02 2020 01:13. Posts 20963

Nah, he didn't cancel.

fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount 

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Nov 02 2020 14:05. Posts 5070


  On November 01 2020 21:39 Daut wrote:
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+ Show Spoiler +

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Nov 02 2020 17:19. Posts 9634

For some reason I cannot post a link of Queen vs Larva without the timer being at the last game even though I've removed all the parameters .... anyway game is up

 Last edit: 02/11/2020 17:20

Daut    United States. Nov 02 2020 23:04. Posts 8955

Midian, is the edge in ZvZ smaller than other matchups? Just pulling numbers out of my ass, but I'd venture a guess that a 2500 Terran is just about 0% to beat a 2750 Protoss. Is that also true for ZvZ? It did seem like in the past Soulkey and Larva were constantly losing important ZvZ in tournaments to guys like Action and failing to win even though they were stronger ZvP and ZvT players, but I can't shake the RPS type feel of the matchup that makes it seem like more of a flip.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

captainhook   Canada. Nov 03 2020 05:36. Posts 466

How good is larva ZvP and ZvT?


Daut    United States. Nov 03 2020 06:31. Posts 8955

I defer to eriador/midian, but my guess for zerg rankings each matchup:

ZvZ: queen, soma, action
ZvT: queen, soulkey, soma, hero, larva.
ZvP: queen, soulkey, hero, soma, larva.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Nov 03 2020 11:28. Posts 5070

I feel like edges in ZvZ are a bit smaller than the other matchups due to the nature of build order advantages which occur even before you get to scout and feel more severe than they are vs Terran or Protoss. However, I created a spreadsheet a couple of days ago with the winrates of the top 6 Zerg players based on stats taken from sponbbang filtered for 2020. I averaged out the winrates of the top 6 ELO rated Zergs against the top 4 ELO rated Terrans, top 4 Protoss players and the other top 6 Zergs. The highest average winrate against the other top 6 Zergs was Queen, which was an average 57.95%, even higher than it was vs the top 4 Protoss players (57.91%) and way higher than any zerg has managed vs the top 4 Terrans. Granted top 4 and top 6 isn't the same and the sample sizes in mirror matchups are a lot smaller, but it's at least some evidence that these pros actually do find edges. 193 is the most and 104 games is the least sample I have for any of the top 6 Zergs in ZvZ, whereas in ZvT 351 is the smallest sample I have and 233 games is the smallest sample I have vs Protoss. Both of those samples are SoulKey btw, it seems he simply plays less than the other guys, at least as far as spon games are concerned.

Using the stats from my spreadsheet I would say the Zerg rankings are as follows:

ZvT: Soulkey > Queen > Soma > Larva > herO > ActiOn
ZvP: Queen > SoulKey > herO > ActiOn > Larva > Soma
ZvZ: Queen > Soma > ActiOn > Larva > SoulKey > herO

Daut, since you're a mathematician and probably have a better grasp of using stats than I do, what do you think is the better method for judging ability between adding all the wins and losses against a set of players and using that winrate to determine a ranking order, or take the winrates against each individual in the sample and averaging the winrates? I used the latter so that if a player had played substantially more games against Flash or Bisu their winrates aren't penalised as badly as they would be if I had just taken overall wins and losses vs the top 4 players. Hope you understand what I mean, just woke up and struggling to make sense!

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

Daut    United States. Nov 03 2020 16:29. Posts 8955

Maybe the best way is to take the weighted average sum of the differences between their winrates against each specific player and the opponent's winrate in that matchup.

i.e., imagine soulkey wins in ZvT vs Flash 30% of the time, but Flash wins 78% of TvZ matches (so the zerg wins 22%). And soulkey played Flash in 30% of the matches you're looking at. You could give soulkey 8% * 30% (8% better than avg and 30% of his weighted better than average total goes to this stat) = 2.4% better than average just for Flash. Do this for every player in your group for every matchup, and I think you'll have a decent ranking for each one.

So just to kind of write a totally made up example out.
Let's say Soulkey plays against Flash, Light, Rush, and Sharp in your standings.

Winrates against zerg:
Flash 76%, Light 69%, Rush 60%, Sharp 55%

Soulkey winrates vs each:
Flash 30% (+6%), Light 40% (+11%), Rush 52% (+12%), Sharp 57% (+12%)

Soulkey frequency of playing each:
Flash 40%, Light 30%, Rush 20%, Sharp 10%

Soulkey +/-: 6%*40% + 11%*30% + 12%*20% + 12% * 10% = 2.4+3.3+2.4+1.2= +9.3%

There's a slight problem in that Flash is such a GOAT, the win %s vs him have less range. Could also do % better, so like 30/24, 40/31, 52/40, 57/45 instead, and then average those in the same way.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, DautLast edit: 03/11/2020 16:55

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Nov 03 2020 16:56. Posts 5070

That makes sense tbf, but I'm a bit lazy to do it haha. I sent you the spreadsheet in discord anyway if you'd like to have a go with the stats in there and compile a ranking using the method you mention?

Edit to make a quick note: I have sOrry as the 4th Terran rather than Sharp, he's currently got a higher ELO rating on sponbbang

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 03/11/2020 17:18

blackjacki2   United States. Nov 04 2020 01:49. Posts 2581



since this never got posted


captainhook   Canada. Nov 07 2020 11:42. Posts 466






+ Show Spoiler +

 Last edit: 07/11/2020 11:42

Baalim   Mexico. Nov 09 2020 02:14. Posts 34246

I found the 3rd place games quite enjoyable.

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro OnlineLast edit: 09/11/2020 02:25

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Nov 10 2020 11:28. Posts 9634

Larva's games are always entertaining


captainhook   Canada. Nov 15 2020 08:51. Posts 466

Small bet on Soma.


captainhook   Canada. Nov 15 2020 10:40. Posts 466

+ Show Spoiler +


captainhook   Canada. Nov 15 2020 10:51. Posts 466

+ Show Spoiler +


captainhook   Canada. Nov 15 2020 11:45. Posts 466

WOW


SpasticInk   Sweden. Nov 15 2020 13:14. Posts 6298

+ Show Spoiler +

 Last edit: 15/11/2020 13:16

SpasticInk   Sweden. Nov 15 2020 13:15. Posts 6298

+ Show Spoiler +

 Last edit: 15/11/2020 13:17

lostaccount   Canada. Nov 15 2020 15:02. Posts 5738

I want to see a 4 player ffa tournament lol

-_-;; 

lostaccount   Canada. Nov 15 2020 15:04. Posts 5738

I haven’t watch it yet but I want queen to win cause I need a queen

-_-;; 

lostaccount   Canada. Nov 15 2020 15:51. Posts 5738

It be nice to see an all random tournament 2

-_-;; 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Nov 15 2020 19:25. Posts 9634

+ Show Spoiler +


Jelle   Belgium. Nov 15 2020 21:21. Posts 3476

haven't watched asl in forever and I really got into it

GroT 

Daut    United States. Nov 16 2020 03:02. Posts 8955

One of the least enjoyable seasons in recent memory, but still not too bad with some fun Flash random mixed in, but most of the games/series were just a little lopsided and the maps favored zerg a bit too much. Can't help but wonder how much different everything would have been if Light made it through. Light is absolutely wrecking people in the ultimate battle event, which is basically him playing a bo9 vs top protoss/terran players until he loses. I think he's won about 10 straight, and only person who came close was Soulkey.

edit:
Light has won 8 in a row:
7-2 hero
5-4 shuttle
7-2 larva
7-2 queen
5-4 best
5-4 soulkey
7-2 mini
6-3 snow

Really impressive stuff.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, DautLast edit: 16/11/2020 03:05

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Nov 16 2020 17:59. Posts 5070

Yeah, this is why Light was such a big favourite to get out of his group, but he fucked it up big time. He even beat all 3 players in his group without dropping a game in race wars the day prior to his ASL group.

Tbh I don't even think the maps were all that zerg favoured, with the exception of Benzene, or at least sponbbang stats do not show them to be Zerg favoured. Plasma, Ringing Bloom and Optimiser are all actually pretty bad for Zerg, statistically speaking. Unclear on Shakuras since sample sizes are very limited and Polypoid is somewhat neutral. I forget if there's any other maps in there, but I don't think this pool has been particularly great for Zerg personally.

I think largely Protoss players aren't really that strong overall at the moment. Bisu is great online, but kinda threw it in the group stages. Best and SnOw are good, but inconsistent and are both kind of let down by their PvZ. They also just simply did not perform as they are capable in the RO8 where they both got smashed 3-0 by Zergs, Best in particular was in a very good spot in a couple of those games.

Terran obviously suffered from FlaSh being random. Light fucked up in the group stages. Rush is strong vs P/Z, but ran into FlaSh. sOrry is performing well online but didn't perform as he can in ASL. Zerg has like 6 really strong and competitive players at this moment in time, I think they just have the greatest number of good players and that it is very little to do with the maps. There's just so much depth with Zerg players atm. Like the 6th best Zerg is a lot better than the 6th best Terran or Protoss imo. I actually do not think Queen is the best player in the world, AT ALL, despite winning 2 ASLs in a row. FlaSh is better if he just plays Terran, and I actually think Light has a higher peak than Queen also. Bisu is there or thereabouts when he performs to his ability. Last and Rain were also right up there too, but it seems they have quit and that also hurts T and P respectively.

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 16/11/2020 18:01

Daut    United States. Nov 16 2020 18:26. Posts 8955

Yea agree don't think Queen is the best in the world. Would also say Flash >>> Light > Queen, and think Rain/Last are also better when active. But don't think anyone else other than those 5 are particularly close.

Zerg definitely has more depth and strength like you said. The reason I thought the maps were good for Z were more so that they were good for ZvP -- I haven't watched much of Plasma, but man does ZvP seem lopsided there, quick lurker to kill the eggs just seemed to instantly kill every protoss player. Ringing Bloom seems like it should be pretty good for PvZ but then I just watched protosses get rekt over and over on it. Benzene super strong for zerg. The others all did seem relatively neutral. And had no opinions on ZvT TvZ.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, DautLast edit: 16/11/2020 18:29

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Nov 16 2020 19:08. Posts 5070

Let's check sponbbang and see how Zerg favoured these maps are.

Filtering the maps to games played in 2020 only.

For 'average winrate' I just added up the win percentage from each map and divided by 7 to get an average winrate to avoid bias in terms of number of games played on each map.

Here is ZvP:
Polypoid - 951W 852L (52.7%)
Eclipse - 623W 523L (54.4%)
Optimizer - 226W 219L (50.8%)
Ringing Bloom - 175W 179L (49.4%)
Benzene - 159W 98L (61.9%)
Shakuras Temple - 133W 104L (56.1%)
Plasma - 10W 24L (29.4%)

Total - 2277W 1999L (53.3%)
Average winrate - 50.7%

Here is TvZ:
Polypoid - 1067W 795L (57.3%)
Eclipse - 583W 499L (53.9%)
Optimizer - 264W 132L (66.7%)
Ringing Bloom - 172W 123L (58.3%)
Benzene - 105W 135L (43.8%)
Shakuras Temple - 92W 59L (60.9%)
Plasma - 29W 12L (70.7%)

Total - 2313W 1755L (56.9%)
Average winrate - 58.8%

Here is PvT, to get a complete picture:
Polypoid - 619W 671L (48%)
Eclipse - 321W 322L (49.9%)
Optimizer - 149W 191L (43.8%)
Ringing Bloom - 164W 107L (60.5%)
Benzene - 94W 56L (62.7%)
Shakuras Temple - 87W 116L (42.9%)
Plasma - 18W 10L (64.3%)

Total - 1452W 1473L (49.6%)
Average winrate - 53.2%

I would call this a Terran favoured map pool really. On these maps T>Z is the most imbalanced matchup pretty much no matter how you slice it. Terran also very competitive vs Protoss, maybe even favoured depending on how you want to look at it. I think you could also make an argument to suggest Zerg is actually WEAKEST on these maps.

Optimizer and Shakuras are pretty hardcore Terran maps. Benzene is a pretty hardcore Zerg map. Plasma and Ringing Bloom are pretty hardcore Protoss maps. The other 2, Polypoid and Eclipse, are somewhat reasonable maps, although ZvT and PvZ are still difficult matchups to play on those maps. This map pool was just shit overall imo. Either that or we really need more innovation from players

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 16/11/2020 19:28

Jelle   Belgium. Nov 16 2020 21:05. Posts 3476

wtf was this really a bad season comparatively? That's it I'm going back to binge watch everything I missed

GroT 

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Nov 16 2020 21:27. Posts 5070

Yeah I don't think it was overall a good season either tbh. Not very many close matchups or memorable games. Plus shit map pool. And a mirror matchup final. Only thing that really set this season apart is that FlaSh tried random

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

Daut    United States. Nov 16 2020 21:58. Posts 8955

Maybe the Ps just shit the bed every time I watched them. Have probably seen like 5 different PvZ on Plasma and Protoss never made it to 15 minutes lol

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Nov 16 2020 22:33. Posts 5070

I mean sample size on sponbbang for games played on Plasma is obviously tiny. When the pros first started playing the map Zerg was getting smashed. Best beat Queen 4:0 there that I saw on Queen's stream, and might have even been worse than that. With my limited Korean skills I could tell that Best felt very confident on that map vs Queen, and that Queen felt like he was fighting uphill. Somehow Best fucked up in the game that mattered though. His build was dogshit, trying to somehow go down every tech tree path at once. He knew Queen was all in, all he needed to do was continue making goons, add reaver and he would hold. Or he could have made more cannons near the eggs than the one he made. Action picked that map on ASL vs someone, maybe that was Best too, brought some proxy hatch build, killed a nexus and still lost lol... It might be that over time Zerg's have faired better there, but I'm still of the belief that it's a pretty big anti Zerg map.

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Nov 17 2020 16:27. Posts 9634


  On November 16 2020 02:02 Daut wrote:
One of the least enjoyable seasons in recent memory, but still not too bad with some fun Flash random mixed in, but most of the games/series were just a little lopsided and the maps favored zerg a bit too much. Can't help but wonder how much different everything would have been if Light made it through. Light is absolutely wrecking people in the ultimate battle event, which is basically him playing a bo9 vs top protoss/terran players until he loses. I think he's won about 10 straight, and only person who came close was Soulkey.

edit:
Light has won 8 in a row:
7-2 hero
5-4 shuttle
7-2 larva
7-2 queen
5-4 best
5-4 soulkey
7-2 mini
6-3 snow

Really impressive stuff.



Are those available somewhere?
Also why are they playing the full 9 games? If someone loses 0-5 its unlikely they will have their A game for the last 4 games

 Last edit: 17/11/2020 16:28

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Nov 17 2020 16:38. Posts 5070


  On November 17 2020 15:27 Spitfiree wrote:
Show nested quote +



Are those available somewhere?
Also why are they playing the full 9 games? If someone loses 0-5 its unlikely they will have their A game for the last 4 games


https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNymqCXr3sxL8dnmO_jScuA/videos

All of the vods available there. Look for anything ended Sc1-xx for the Ultimate Battle 9 game series. Latest one is Sc1-67 Light vs SnOw

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

WhyYouKickMyDog   United States. Dec 09 2020 08:36. Posts 1623


 



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