I'm mostly joking, but there s plenty of people that would rather feed their egos than apologize even indirectly, anyways don't want to derail the thread further.
I can't wait to see Flash will do playing random.... this time they cant fuck him with maps but wonder if the RNG factor will play to his side.
WhyYouKickMyDog   United States. Sep 28 2020 00:47. Posts 1623
Ro16 groups/schedule
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 01 2020 01:02. Posts 5070
Predictions:
A - Queen + Rush
B - Light + Action
C - SnOw + herO (Unless FlaSh gets Terran a couple of times - in which case SnOw + FlaSh)
D - soma + SoulKey
If this comes true it would suck quite a bit since there'd only be 1 Protoss remaining, but I think Best advancing is fairly unlikely and free advancing very unlikely. I could see one of Mini or Shuttle advancing but think majority of the time it's soma + SoulKey in Group D
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
Last edit: 01/10/2020 01:02
1
nixxxbg   Bulgaria. Oct 01 2020 05:48. Posts 436
I found the group selection stage pretty strange. I don't understand why Light picked Best when there were potentially weaker players to choose from early on or why Best picked Larva. Group B seems pretty tough.
1
Liquid`Drone   Norway. Oct 01 2020 11:17. Posts 3093
Looking at the players in the groups zergs look really good, but looking at the maps, not so much, particularly tvz.
Polypoid tvz 962 - 729, 56.9%
Eclipse tvz 503 - 443, 53.2%
Optimizer tvz 228 - 116, 66.3%
Ringing Bloom tvz 110 - 80, 57.9%
Benzene tvz 90 - 122, 42.5%
Shakuras temple tvz 23 - 11, 67.6%
Plasma tvz 18 - 11, 62.1%
So one zerg favored map, one map within 45-55 range, and 5 pretty clearly terran favored ones. (Fair that shakuras and plasma have smaller sample sizes though.)
Pvz looks quite different, with most maps being slightly z favored - Ringing Bloom and Plasma being the only two exceptions. Plasma small sample size, but 16-7 is enough where it's big anyway.
Pvt is between 45-55% either way for every map other than Benzene, where terran is 61-39.
I still favor zero (queen) to make it from his group because he's a lot better than leta and jyj, but it's hard to picture light losing to action or larva. Agreed that group B looks really tough.
Sponbbang ranking from july - october:
1: Flash
2: Light
3: Bisu
4: Action
5: Best
6: Mini
7: Soulkey
8: I think Free
9: Zero (Queen)
10: Sorry
11: Soma
12: Rush
13: Larva
14: Sharp
15: Hero
So going with:
Queen Rush (imo most straight forward group)
Light +Action (but this group is super tough. Best and Larva are both very good)
Flash+Snow (Bad group for Flash, his z is weaker than p+t, and his pvp is weaker than his pvz and pvt. I still think he's gonna pull through though. If he was in a group facing terrans+zergs, I'd be very confident in him. At the same time, random zerg vs protoss is a really good matchup, so even though picked zvp he'd be in big trouble, I think he's only an underdog if he randoms pvp or zvz.)
And group D it's basically just.. not shuttle.
(shuttle has been a total punching bag for top zergs lately. Some select stats: 11 - 58 vs Action, 10 - 18 vs Soulkey, 10 - 46 vs Zero, 6 - 24 vs Soma, 16-56 vs Larva, 23 - 75 vs hero.. )
lol POKER
Last edit: 02/10/2020 19:08
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 01 2020 17:19. Posts 5070
Agreed the maps seem to be T>Z, but regarding Queen here are his 2020 sponbbang stats vs the 3 terrans in his group:
vs ??? (Leta) 14:0 (100%)
vs ??? (JyJ) 26:11 (70.3%)
vs ??? (Rush) 57:43 (57%)
Gotta think it would be a big upset if he didn't make it out all things considered. He has looked pretty weak vs T on his Stream from what I've seen in the last week though! Really hope he makes it.
In terms of Light vs the two zergs in his group:
vs ??? (Larva) 87:56 (60.8%)
vs ??? (Action) 64:42 (60.4%)
Also surprisingly to me, Light's winrates vs P (60.3%) and T (72.1%) are better than they are vs zerg (60.2%) in 2020 sponbbang games, though this may be due to the fact that he's played WAY more games vs Z than P or T, and the bulk of those games vs Z are against the best zergs in the world; SoulKey, Queen, Soma, Action, Larva. Only SoulKey has a winning record in ZvT vs Light, and only 52% at that.
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 01 2020 18:14. Posts 5070
Got some time to kill so while we're at it, here's every head to head matchup stats from sponbbang filtered to just games played in 2020:
Group A
Queen v Leta 14:0 (100%)
Queen v JyJ 26:11 (70.3%)
Queen v Rush 57:43 (57%)
Rush v Leta no games on record
Rush v JyJ 10:10 (50%)
JyJ v Leta no games on record
JyJ v Rush a bit of a toss up, so it's very conceivable that Queen makes it out first and then it's a tossup between JyJ and Rush for the last spot. Rush of course has a better chance of beating Queen, though. Leta has fuck all games on record in general, just 189, compared to Rush who has over 2k for instance. He has to be the biggest outsider in this group... It's a fucking miracle he got this far in all honesty!
Group B
Light v Action 64:42 (60.4%)
Light v Best 29:26 (52.7%)
Light v Larva 87:56 (60.8%)
Action v Best 45:40 (52.9%)
Action v Larva 4:4 (50%)
Best v Larva 38:47 (44.7%)
Very close group... Light is the favourite, and then on paper Larva vs Action is a tossup and Best is a small underdog to all 3 players in the group. Could be any combination of 2 players really, especially if Best were to beat Light and put him in loser's match if they play first, that would really make the group exciting. Light and FlaSh are the only Terrans with a winning record vs Best in the sample I'm looking at and both are only small favourites, Best is really a savage in PvT.
Group C
FlaSh v free 4:0 (100%)
FlaSh v herO 34:10 (77.3%)
FlaSh v SnOw 25:14 (64.1%)
free v herO 14:54 (20.6%)
free v SnOw 6:6 (50%)
hero v SnOw 72:49 (59.5%)
Unsure if these stats are purely FlaSh playing Terran or not, I assume they are though so are obviously not terribly representative. If FlaSh were Terran I would pick him first and herO second based on these stats. herO is a total beast ZvP, and is underrated in general so I believe he is a favourite in a head to head with SnOw. The only toss with a positive winrate vs herO on sponbbang is Bisu, SnOw has the 2nd best winrate and herO is still winning almost 60% there! Free is basically drawing dead in this group, but has some ability to ruin SnOw's day.
Group D
Mini v Shuttle 8:4 (66.7%)
Mini v soma 55:57 (49.1%)
Mini v SoulKey 16:32 (33.3%)
Shuttle v soma 6:24 (20%)
Shuttle v SoulKey 10:18 (35.7%)
soma v SoulKey 8:4 (66.7%)
As drone said, Shuttle is drawing very thin here. He is clearly practicing hard at the moment though - There's 23 games on his sponbbang alone just for 1st October. So maybe he can spring what would certainly be considered a surprise. The other 3 players are all capable of getting out of the group, but I think Mini is the least likely of the three.
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
Last edit: 01/10/2020 18:15
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 01 2020 22:37. Posts 5070
On October 01 2020 10:17 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Looking at the players in the groups zergs look really good, but looking at the maps, not so much, particularly tvz.
Polypoid tvz 962 - 729, 56.9%
Eclipse tvz 503 - 443, 53.2%
Optimizer tvz 228 - 116, 66.3%
Ringing Bloom tvz 110 - 80, 57.9%
Benzene tvz 90 - 122, 42.5%
Shakuras temple tvz 23 - 11, 67.6%
Plasma tvz 18 - 11, 62.1%
So one zerg favored map, one map within 45-55 range, and 5 pretty clearly terran favored ones. (Fair that shakuras and temple have smaller sample sizes though.)
Pvz looks quite different, with most maps being slightly z favored - Ringing Bloom and Plasma being the only two exceptions. Plasma small sample size, but 16-7 is enough where it's big anyway.
Pvt is between 45-55% either way for every map other than Benzene, where terran is 61-39.
I still favor zero (queen) to make it from his group because he's a lot better than leta and jyj, but it's hard to picture light losing to action or larva. Agreed that group B looks really tough.
Sponbbang ranking from july - october:
1: Flash
2: Light
3: Bisu
4: Action
5: Best
6: Mini
7: Soulkey
8: I think Free
9: Zero (Queen)
10: Sorry
11: Soma
12: Rush
13: Larva
14: Sharp
15: Hero
So going with:
Queen Rush (imo most straight forward group)
Light +Action (but this group is super tough. Best and Larva are both very good)
Flash+Snow (Bad group for Flash, his z is weaker than p+t, and his pvp is weaker than his pvz and pvt. I still think he's gonna pull through though. If he was in a group facing terrans+zergs, I'd be very confident in him. At the same time, random zerg vs protoss is a really good matchup, so even though picked zvp he'd be in big trouble, I think he's only an underdog if he randoms pvp or zvz.)
And group D it's basically just.. not shuttle.
(shuttle has been a total punching bag for top zergs lately. Some select stats: 11 - 58 vs Action, 10 - 18 vs Soulkey, 10 - 46 vs Zero, 6 - 24 vs Soma, 16-56 vs Larva, 23 - 75 vs hero.. )
#8 is SnOw btw.
Free is now #15 though, pushing herO back to #16
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
Last edit: 01/10/2020 22:39
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 02 2020 10:09. Posts 466
On October 01 2020 00:02 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
Predictions:
A - Queen + Rush
B - Light + Action
C - SnOw + herO (Unless FlaSh gets Terran a couple of times - in which case SnOw + FlaSh)
D - soma + SoulKey
If this comes true it would suck quite a bit since there'd only be 1 Protoss remaining, but I think Best advancing is fairly unlikely and free advancing very unlikely. I could see one of Mini or Shuttle advancing but think majority of the time it's soma + SoulKey in Group D
Mostly agree. I think Shuttle could have a slight chance of going thru tho.
As for my bets, got Rush and Light parlay, Snow and Soma parlay, betting small on Free playing random Flash.
Figured sponbbang out.
Cancel the Snow, Soma parlay. I think Hero got this and he's the underdog. Adding that and Soma, Soulkey parlay.
So gonna get Rush - Light parlay, Soma - Soulkey parlay, Hero and gamble on Free. All for plus money.
Last edit: 03/10/2020 06:18
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 02 2020 10:17. Posts 466
On October 01 2020 10:17 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Looking at the players in the groups zergs look really good, but looking at the maps, not so much, particularly tvz.
Polypoid tvz 962 - 729, 56.9%
Eclipse tvz 503 - 443, 53.2%
Optimizer tvz 228 - 116, 66.3%
Ringing Bloom tvz 110 - 80, 57.9%
Benzene tvz 90 - 122, 42.5%
Shakuras temple tvz 23 - 11, 67.6%
Plasma tvz 18 - 11, 62.1%
So one zerg favored map, one map within 45-55 range, and 5 pretty clearly terran favored ones. (Fair that shakuras and temple have smaller sample sizes though.)
Pvz looks quite different, with most maps being slightly z favored - Ringing Bloom and Plasma being the only two exceptions. Plasma small sample size, but 16-7 is enough where it's big anyway.
Pvt is between 45-55% either way for every map other than Benzene, where terran is 61-39.
Where did you get those stats?
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 02 2020 12:46. Posts 5070
The stats can be found on sponbbang.com
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 02 2020 12:56. Posts 5070
On October 01 2020 00:02 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
Predictions:
A - Queen + Rush
B - Light + Action
C - SnOw + herO (Unless FlaSh gets Terran a couple of times - in which case SnOw + FlaSh)
D - soma + SoulKey
If this comes true it would suck quite a bit since there'd only be 1 Protoss remaining, but I think Best advancing is fairly unlikely and free advancing very unlikely. I could see one of Mini or Shuttle advancing but think majority of the time it's soma + SoulKey in Group D
Mostly agree. I think Shuttle could have a slight chance of going thru tho.
As for my bets, got Rush and Light parlay, Snow and Soma parlay, betting small on Free playing random Flash.
I think 3 players are almost certainly not gonna make it out, check the full stats write up I did a few posts above. Those players being Leta, free and Shuttle lol. Of course at this level in a bo1 anyone has SOME chance but looking at stats it would be very surprising if any of those 3 made it out. Wouldn't be a giant surprise if any of the other 13 players made it through though imo.
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 02 2020 15:51. Posts 466
Sad Shuttle went to that group at the last minute.. I think he has been playing well and could push thru to the finals if he makes Ro.8.
Last edit: 02/10/2020 15:54
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 03 2020 05:16. Posts 466
Figured sponbbang out.
Cancel the Snow, Soma parlay. I think Hero got this and he's the underdog. Adding that and Soma, Soulkey parlay.
So gonna get Rush - Light parlay, Soma - Soulkey parlay, Hero and gamble on Free. All for plus money.
And what do you guys think of Action vs Larva? The line is close.
Last edit: 03/10/2020 06:22
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ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 03 2020 12:04. Posts 5070
Perhaps herO is a betting underdog, because he has never really achieved that much in offline tournaments. He's great ZvP in practice games online, but can he deliver on stage? SnOw has delivered before. So, although the map pool and herO v SnOw head to heads stats favour herO, that might not translate to an advantage in this tournament setting.
Action v Larva looked at in more detail in the post below.
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
Last edit: 03/10/2020 12:20
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 03 2020 12:19. Posts 5070
Ok so had a look at a few more stats to try and figure out a favourite between Action and Larva. Here are their respective winrates against the other 4 remaining zergs in ASL (herO, Queen, soma, SoulKey)
Action Overall ZvZ 130:107 (54.9%)
Action v herO 15 : 9 (62.5%)
Action v Queen 13:13 (50%)
Action v soma 7:12 (36.8%)
Action v SoulKey 12:13 (48%)
Combined vs the 4 above 47:47 (50%)
Larva Overall ZvZ 86:84 (50.6%)
Larva v herO 17:21 (44.7%)
Larva v Queen 12:15 (44.4%)
Larva v soma 12:16 (42.9%)
Larva v SoulKey 4:4 (50%)
Combined vs the 4 above 45:56 (44.6%)
The overall stat can be taken with a pinch of salt since obviously it's going to depend largely on the number of games played against top competition and the number of games played against weaker players. However, Action has a better winrate overall for what that's worth, and also when focusing just on games played against the 4 zergs remaining in ASL, we can see that Action has faired better there also.
So I think it would probably be fair to call Action a small favourite. Larva is also well known for underdelivering in offline events, but Action has a lot of hype around him at the moment so that could play a part and get to him also.
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
Last edit: 03/10/2020 12:26
1
Liquid`Drone   Norway. Oct 03 2020 13:20. Posts 3093
Action a small favorite seems right, but it's in the 55-45 or 60-40 range tops.
lol POKER
4
Daut   United States. Oct 03 2020 17:02. Posts 8955
Any sponbang stats on Flash as random or off race? His P seems pretty solid, his Z seems good but a bit worse.
NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 03 2020 22:30. Posts 5070
Not that I'm aware of :/
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 04 2020 03:03. Posts 466
On October 03 2020 16:02 Daut wrote:
Any sponbang stats on Flash as random or off race? His P seems pretty solid, his Z seems good but a bit worse.
We'll see... Free is +450 in some books.
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 04 2020 03:31. Posts 466
Haha Condit showed everybody.
Wrong thread.
Last edit: 04/10/2020 03:32
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ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 04 2020 18:55. Posts 5070
I don't think that series shows JyJ as a good TvZ player... He won TvZ on the most imbalanced map (T > Z, despite what Artosis said) and then lost on Eclipse when he was in a great spot on multiple occasions and Queen didn't play out of his skin or anything. If anything his TvZ was quite disappointing imo
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
Last edit: 06/10/2020 13:29
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 06 2020 13:42. Posts 466
I don't think that series shows JyJ as a good TvZ player... He won TvZ on the most imbalanced map (T > Z, despite what Artosis said) and then lost on Eclipse when he was in a great spot on multiple occasions and Queen didn't play out of his skin or anything. If anything his TvZ was quite disappointing imo
I don't think that series shows JyJ as a good TvZ player... He won TvZ on the most imbalanced map (T > Z, despite what Artosis said) and then lost on Eclipse when he was in a great spot on multiple occasions and Queen didn't play out of his skin or anything. If anything his TvZ was quite disappointing imo
I'd say Soma is a solid favorite - although it does depend on the map. If they play shakuras temple and optimizer then Soma's skill advantage is equalized by the map disadvantage.
head to head in sponbang, Soma is 8:6 against JyJ, and Soma has a good zvt record overall (second best sponbang zvt record out of all zergs with 165-140). Whereas JyJ is a tvt specialist (67% win rate tvt, 35% tvp, 50% tvz. That places him as the 9th best tvz player according to sponbang. )
lol POKER
Last edit: 06/10/2020 14:16
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 06 2020 14:46. Posts 5070
I don't think that series shows JyJ as a good TvZ player... He won TvZ on the most imbalanced map (T > Z, despite what Artosis said) and then lost on Eclipse when he was in a great spot on multiple occasions and Queen didn't play out of his skin or anything. If anything his TvZ was quite disappointing imo
I'd say Soma is a solid favorite - although it does depend on the map. If they play shakuras temple and optimizer then Soma's skill advantage is equalized by the map disadvantage.
head to head in sponbang, Soma is 8:6 against JyJ, and Soma has a good zvt record overall (second best sponbang zvt record out of all zergs with 165-140). Whereas JyJ is a tvt specialist (67% win rate tvt, 35% tvp, 50% tvz. That places him as the 9th best tvz player according to sponbang. )
I don't think that series shows JyJ as a good TvZ player... He won TvZ on the most imbalanced map (T > Z, despite what Artosis said) and then lost on Eclipse when he was in a great spot on multiple occasions and Queen didn't play out of his skin or anything. If anything his TvZ was quite disappointing imo
I'd say Soma is a solid favorite - although it does depend on the map. If they play shakuras temple and optimizer then Soma's skill advantage is equalized by the map disadvantage.
head to head in sponbang, Soma is 8:6 against JyJ, and Soma has a good zvt record overall (second best sponbang zvt record out of all zergs with 165-140). Whereas JyJ is a tvt specialist (67% win rate tvt, 35% tvp, 50% tvz. That places him as the 9th best tvz player according to sponbang. )
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 06 2020 15:21. Posts 466
So it's Light vs Best and Larva and Action for the Bo1 of Group B. Who you guys got? It's Light and Action for me. I have a small bet on Action.
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 06 2020 15:32. Posts 5070
I feel it's the closest group, any of them have a decent shot of getting out the group. Light has to be the biggest favourite though, he has a positive winrate in sponbbang stats against the other 3 players in the group and he just got an all kill in the KCM racewars held today beating Best, Stork, YSC, Larva, SoulKey and Action... So he beat all 3 players in his group in that race wars. I'd say second favourite is indeed Action. I think Best is a little weaker vs Zerg overall so he is least likely, but still wouldn't be incredibly surprised if he made it.
In terms of the BO1s Light vs Best is actually close, but Light is the small favourite. Unsure what map it is though, I guess it's Sakura's Temple same as first games today? Unsure what difference that makes yet as there's very few recorded stats on that map on sponbbang.
Action vs Larva is also really close, would make Action a small favourite 55% at most.
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
Last edit: 06/10/2020 15:38
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 06 2020 16:20. Posts 466
Light is almost -192 and Best is +137 in the betting market. The lines are pretty juiced but Light overvalued?
Last edit: 06/10/2020 16:20
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 06 2020 16:45. Posts 5070
Those are odds for the head to head I assume? So Light has to win more than 65.8% for that bet to be +EV and Best needs to win just over 42% for the bet on him to be +EV. Think betting on Light would be a bad bet... Sponbbang stats for Best vs Light are 29:26 (52.7%) in Light's favour so it's actually a really close match on paper. The unknown factors for me are: the map, there's not many stats out there and I'm not familiar enough with PvT to discern an advantage just from looking at the map, and how well they perform offline and their current shape. Light is definitely looking strong after today's Race Wars performance, but not enough imo to justify -192. To me personally the line on Best seems about right all things considered, Light's line not enough value imo.
Personally I would avoid betting on that match though, I don't think there's a great deal of edge in to be had. If I knew enough to say that the map is a good Protoss map then I would bet on Best, if at all.
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
Last edit: 06/10/2020 16:48
1
Liquid`Drone   Norway. Oct 06 2020 17:42. Posts 3093
yea I'd say Light is a pretty solid favorite to make it through (only a slight favorite vs best, but with this map pool, he will be very hard to deal with for zergs).
In terms of them making it out I'd say something like light 70% action 55% Larva 40% best 35%, no more than a 5% adjustment to any of them anyway.
lol POKER
1
Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Oct 06 2020 21:41. Posts 9634
TvT is such a snoozefest
1
whammbot   Belarus. Oct 07 2020 03:12. Posts 517
They lost me at TvT
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 07 2020 05:29. Posts 466
On October 06 2020 15:45 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
Those are odds for the head to head I assume? So Light has to win more than 65.8% for that bet to be +EV and Best needs to win just over 42% for the bet on him to be +EV. Think betting on Light would be a bad bet... Sponbbang stats for Best vs Light are 29:26 (52.7%) in Light's favour so it's actually a really close match on paper. The unknown factors for me are: the map, there's not many stats out there and I'm not familiar enough with PvT to discern an advantage just from looking at the map, and how well they perform offline and their current shape. Light is definitely looking strong after today's Race Wars performance, but not enough imo to justify -192. To me personally the line on Best seems about right all things considered, Light's line not enough value imo.
Personally I would avoid betting on that match though, I don't think there's a great deal of edge in to be had. If I knew enough to say that the map is a good Protoss map then I would bet on Best, if at all.
Yup, the bo1 between the two. And the map is on Sakura's Temple which kinda favors T I think? Not sure.. But yeah, I'm tempted to put some money on Best, but he isn't playing all that well in this tourney tho.
Anyway, let's see how soft these lines are.
Last edit: 07/10/2020 05:31
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 08 2020 10:52. Posts 466
LIVE NOW!!!
Ok.. I'm thinking these lines could actually be soft. Light doesn't have a good winrate in the ASL. Just saw the stats at the screen.
Last edit: 08/10/2020 11:19
1
Liquid`Drone   Norway. Oct 08 2020 11:18. Posts 3093
most exciting group!
well also flash's.
lol POKER
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 08 2020 11:31. Posts 466
On October 08 2020 10:18 Liquid`Drone wrote:
most exciting group!
Ok.. So which has the higher probability of picking a winner, sponnbang stats or pure ASL stats?
Last edit: 08/10/2020 12:11
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 08 2020 12:15. Posts 5070
Prob don't wanna go by just one or the other, but a combination. Though bear in mind those ASL stats go back a long time so arent necessarily representative of their current level. For instance Shuttle won the first ASL but he's one of the biggest underdogs going into the RO16. So if its one or the other I'd take sponbbang stats, with the only downside on those being that some players are much better online than they are offline, or vice versa
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 08 2020 12:44. Posts 466
On October 08 2020 11:15 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
Prob don't wanna go by just one or the other, but a combination. Though bear in mind those ASL stats go back a long time so arent necessarily representative of their current level. For instance Shuttle won the first ASL but he's one of the biggest underdogs going into the RO16. So if its one or the other I'd take sponbbang stats, with the only downside on those being that some players are much better online than they are offline, or vice versa
It was a hard group to predict overall tbf. First group went more as expected, group B was always gonna be close to call. Still surprised to see Light not make it, especially losing a BO3 vs a zerg on that map pool.
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
Last edit: 08/10/2020 16:23
1
Liquid`Drone   Norway. Oct 09 2020 15:16. Posts 3093
yeah, I'm surprised he lost 0-2 vs Larva, and I'm a bit surprised best beat Action. Best and light going 2-2 over 4 games isn't surprising, but best winning his pvz and light losing his tvz wasn't expected. Still, it was indeed a very close group. The Flash group is almost equally unpredictable simply because of Flash's random (Free getting top 2 is very unlikely even then tho), but usually, groups are less even skill wise than what the case was here.
lol POKER
Last edit: 09/10/2020 18:34
4
Daut   United States. Oct 09 2020 16:20. Posts 8955
Some fun matches that group, esp the Best vs Light bo1 game. Unfortunate Action couldn't play better, he seemed a bit off against Best, and I thought he would be a small favorite ZvZ against Larva too. And sucks Light's marine blocked his scvs game 2 vs Larva
Really strange by Light to allow the gas steal in both games vs Best. Thoughts? Seems like he could have stopped both of them. And then the early push, I get it, Best is a macro god and he didn't want to give him freedom to get up to 10+ gates, but whenever I see Light playing his best TvP, I tend to see him get 3 bases, 2/1+ upgrades and then make a huge clos to 200/200 push that overwhelms the protoss and just continues to steamroll before protoss can resupply troops. Was weird to see him rush out an early push game 2 and just lose the game almost immediately.
Oh well, I'm ok with it as a protoss player, nice to see some PvX series, but I'd have preferred Larva/Light make it through cause they both have a chance to make a run in the knockout stage and I don't really see Best being capable if there are many zergs through.
Now LFG Random Flash
NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut
Last edit: 09/10/2020 16:22
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Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Oct 09 2020 17:00. Posts 9634
Drone ........
1
Liquid`Drone   Norway. Oct 09 2020 18:34. Posts 3093
whoops sorry :'(
lol POKER
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 10 2020 11:57. Posts 466
What's everybody's lean for Hero vs Snow? Hero is 72 - 49 vs Snow over a 1.5ish year sample:
Yet the books have him at +113 or so, depending where you look. Soft line or do the books see something I don't?
Oh and the match is going to be on Sakura's Temple. 13 - 9 for Z. That's a very small sample tho.
Last edit: 10/10/2020 12:30
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Liquid`Drone   Norway. Oct 10 2020 20:15. Posts 3093
Light beat Zero 7-2 today.
I think the bookies are pretty bad at setting odds and go based on reputation or 'overall skill level' rather than matchup/map specific odds. Snow has a slightly bigger name, but I would be inclined to agree that Hero is the favorite. Again, not by a lot, bo1s between players at this level are almost always highly volatile.
lol POKER
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 10 2020 23:43. Posts 466
Where did they play?
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 11 2020 03:39. Posts 466
Gotta sleep now and wake up early for this!
ASL 10 Ro16 DAY 3!
Artosis Thoughts on Random Flash
Last edit: 11/10/2020 04:56
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WhyYouKickMyDog   United States. Oct 11 2020 09:11. Posts 1623
On October 10 2020 22:43 captainhook wrote:
Where did they play?
Lots of awesome games.
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 11 2020 11:05. Posts 466
Thanks Dog.
RANDOM FLASH LIVE NOW!!!
ASL 10 Ro16 DAY 3!
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captainhook   Canada. Oct 11 2020 11:23. Posts 466
I just don't know how free didn't win that 3rd game and why he massed zealots there? thats like losing a tournament from a 95% to 5% chip lead due to losing too many chips to NSD
1
blackjacki2   United States. Oct 12 2020 02:33. Posts 2581
dunno why everyone seems to think PvP would be one of Flash's hardest matchups of the group. I would assume it would be his strongest since it often comes down to whoever micros 2 similar sized armies better and Flash has the best micro in the world.
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 12 2020 03:04. Posts 466
dunno why everyone seems to think PvP would be one of Flash's hardest matchups of the group. I would assume it would be his strongest since it often comes down to whoever micros 2 similar sized armies better and Flash has the best micro in the world.
Daut   United States. Oct 14 2020 04:20. Posts 8955
That Soulkey vs Mini base trading game was fucking awesome.
NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut
1
CrownRoyal   United States. Oct 14 2020 14:22. Posts 11385
It mega tilts me that none of the protoss players make dark archons.
just by morphing one and having it they cannot do the muta templar snipe maneuver. Not to mention there is basically no way that it doesn't redeem some form of value by guaranteeing a godly storm on a single group of hydras at the very minimum.
WHAT IS THIS
1
CrownRoyal   United States. Oct 14 2020 14:23. Posts 11385
also the quality of games this season has been spectacular.
WHAT IS THIS
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 14 2020 16:11. Posts 5070
I personally haven't been blown away by the games at all, been the odd decent one here and there but lots of one sided games on the whole. The best is still yet to come yet though I think, looking forward to some close bo5 series
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 14 2020 16:46. Posts 466
On October 14 2020 15:11 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
I personally haven't been blown away by the games at all, been the odd decent one here and there but lots of one sided games on the whole. The best is still yet to come yet though I think, looking forward to some close bo5 series
It's..
Flash vs Rush
Soma vs Snow
Larva vs Soulkey
Zero vs Best
.. I think Soma vs Snow and Larva vs Soulkey could be close. Leaning Soma and Larva.
I'd like to drop some action on Rush too. I think Flash got lucky in a couple of spots vs Snow.
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blackjacki2   United States. Oct 14 2020 20:17. Posts 2581
On October 14 2020 15:11 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
I personally haven't been blown away by the games at all, been the odd decent one here and there but lots of one sided games on the whole. The best is still yet to come yet though I think, looking forward to some close bo5 series
Really? I thought groups B and C had some of the best series of games we have had in a long time
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Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Oct 14 2020 20:39. Posts 9634
On October 14 2020 15:46 captainhook wrote:
I think Flash got lucky in a couple of spots vs Snow.
How? Snow should've won both games, Flash just completely outplayed him and its not that Snow played poorly either, he brought his A game
Last edit: 14/10/2020 20:40
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ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 14 2020 20:57. Posts 5070
On October 14 2020 15:11 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
I personally haven't been blown away by the games at all, been the odd decent one here and there but lots of one sided games on the whole. The best is still yet to come yet though I think, looking forward to some close bo5 series
Really? I thought groups B and C had some of the best series of games we have had in a long time
Group B was exciting I thought, but largely because the players who were expected to advance by most didn't happen to make it, but the games themselves I thought were somewhat meh. It's probably cause I'm a zerg player cause I didn't enjoy any of the games Larva or Action played, but did think all of the games between Light and Best were very good.
Group C I enjoyed the very last game between SnOw and Free, that was a real edge of the seat game, and from my perspective, really hoping for SnOw to pull through. Nothing else was truly memorable to me though. None of the good games in RO16 involved a Zerg and that's probably where my disappointment lies.
In Group D, even though the games weren't close Soma does look like a beast. Hopefully get some close back and forth games between him and SnOw, that series has a lot of promise.
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
Last edit: 14/10/2020 20:57
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captainhook   Canada. Oct 18 2020 10:28. Posts 466
Live soon!
ASL 10 Ro8. Flash, Random vs Rush, Terran
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 18 2020 11:55. Posts 466
going early pool seems like the most logical thing to do as Flash in his first zerg game unless there is some meta behind the scene thing we don't know about
think soma wins vs snow and then beats flash though
Last edit: 18/10/2020 17:05
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blackjacki2   United States. Oct 19 2020 01:09. Posts 2581
flash managed to kill more scvs with his reavers than any protoss we've seen in several seasons. He seems smarter with his targeting by targeting scvs closer to his reaver so scarab are less likely to dud instead of going for the money shots. Also impressed that he kept making reavers for the whole game. The reaver never stops being worth its cost, most people just stop making them because they are too micro intensive and they would rather focus on optimal macro.
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captainhook   Canada. Oct 19 2020 03:16. Posts 466
flash managed to kill more scvs with his reavers than any protoss we've seen in several seasons. He seems smarter with his targeting by targeting scvs closer to his reaver so scarab are less likely to dud instead of going for the money shots. Also impressed that he kept making reavers for the whole game. The reaver never stops being worth its cost, most people just stop making them because they are too micro intensive and they would rather focus on optimal macro.
He was spewy with the drops. The risk he took were arguably not worth it from a "his cost vs damage done on opponent" perspective, but from a psychological standpoint on Rush part and the pressure done on him were enough to make him play worse than he usually does.
It was a master class from Flash.
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blackjacki2   United States. Oct 19 2020 12:25. Posts 2581
flash managed to kill more scvs with his reavers than any protoss we've seen in several seasons. He seems smarter with his targeting by targeting scvs closer to his reaver so scarab are less likely to dud instead of going for the money shots. Also impressed that he kept making reavers for the whole game. The reaver never stops being worth its cost, most people just stop making them because they are too micro intensive and they would rather focus on optimal macro.
He was spewy with the drops. The risk he took were arguably not worth it from a "his cost vs damage done on opponent" perspective, but from a psychological standpoint on Rush part and the pressure done on him were enough to make him play worse than he usually does.
pretty spewy with some of his attacks as well with not the best engagements, micro, and army compositions. Most other pro Protoss's would have finished that game much more cleanly after the the failed 2 base push. If Flash pulls this off it's going to be through tactics and not technical finesse.
It's also possible that the cost/benefit perspective of drops is not viewed correctly in the first place. I think people tend to underrate lost mining time when there are worker transfers and only look at # of SCVs killed. Transferring all your workers to the other base to run away from a reaver probably loses hundreds of minerals in lost mining time. Artosis had a line, "If Flash does it then it's correct."
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captainhook   Canada. Oct 19 2020 14:32. Posts 466
flash managed to kill more scvs with his reavers than any protoss we've seen in several seasons. He seems smarter with his targeting by targeting scvs closer to his reaver so scarab are less likely to dud instead of going for the money shots. Also impressed that he kept making reavers for the whole game. The reaver never stops being worth its cost, most people just stop making them because they are too micro intensive and they would rather focus on optimal macro.
He was spewy with the drops. The risk he took were arguably not worth it from a "his cost vs damage done on opponent" perspective, but from a psychological standpoint on Rush part and the pressure done on him were enough to make him play worse than he usually does.
pretty spewy with some of his attacks as well with not the best engagements, micro, and army compositions. Most other pro Protoss's would have finished that game much more cleanly after the the failed 2 base push. If Flash pulls this off it's going to be through tactics and not technical finesse.
It's also possible that the cost/benefit perspective of drops is not viewed correctly in the first place. I think people tend to underrate lost mining time when there are worker transfers and only look at # of SCVs killed. Transferring all your workers to the other base to run away from a reaver probably loses hundreds of minerals in lost mining time. Artosis had a line, "If Flash does it then it's correct."
Soma is pretty good. Didn't know that. He could be the guy to beat Flash.
Did Soma ever play vs Flash in past ASLs?
i dont recall if they've played in ASL before. I would imagine so, but Soma is actually pretty known for his zvT. He has had one of the best zvts in the world for a while now. So all in all very terrifying player. So he def has an amazing chance vs flash because he can take games off of his terran. And flash for sure is going to struggle vs him zvz and pvz.
I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance, by running away from the scene of an accident.
Last edit: 20/10/2020 17:14
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PoorUser   United States. Oct 20 2020 21:53. Posts 7471
flash is at least 2-0 vs soma in asl, though the games i can remember were fairly competitive
Gambler Emeritus
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 21 2020 00:42. Posts 466
Ok. Let's see how the books price the match up. I hope they overvalue Flash.
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 21 2020 01:30. Posts 5070
Soma is very likely the best zerg in the world overall at the moment
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
4
Daut   United States. Oct 21 2020 02:21. Posts 8955
I think Soma should be a favorite. Seems like he would be losing less EV vs terran than he gains vs protoss and zerg, and most of the maps seem a little tilted towards Z.
I'm unsure on how to rank the zergs. ZvZ seems kinda random (i.e. is the best ZvZ 60% in 1 match vs the 5th best ZvZ?), ZvP seems soulkey/zero are the best, and ZvT I do like soma but it's probably close with soulkey.
NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 21 2020 03:46. Posts 466
Just wondering what you guys think of Soulkey's ZvZ and vs Larva specfically. Soulkey is +120. Value or not?
Larva is -165.
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Daut   United States. Oct 21 2020 05:09. Posts 8955
I can't say for certain, never watch much ZvZ outside ASL. I tend to like larva's style of getting a base and making spores and then eventually having more mutas and being able to control the map with protection at home. I always thought action had fantastic ZvZ (possibly even the best?) and larva beat him in ro16, whereas soulkey seems more similar to queen where they have unreal zvt/zvp and are a little weaker zvz.
NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut
Last edit: 21/10/2020 05:09
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captainhook   Canada. Oct 21 2020 10:37. Posts 466
On October 21 2020 04:09 Daut wrote:
I can't say for certain, never watch much ZvZ outside ASL. I tend to like larva's style of getting a base and making spores and then eventually having more mutas and being able to control the map with protection at home. I always thought action had fantastic ZvZ (possibly even the best?) and larva beat him in ro16, whereas soulkey seems more similar to queen where they have unreal zvt/zvp and are a little weaker zvz.
It's strange that these two never played that much over a three year sample.
38 games don't really show that much. I'm not feeling all too good in my Larva/Zero parlay right now.
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DooMeR   United States. Oct 21 2020 18:03. Posts 8544
On October 21 2020 02:46 captainhook wrote:
Just wondering what you guys think of Soulkey's ZvZ and vs Larva specfically. Soulkey is +120. Value or not?
Larva is -165.
i am horrible when it comes to these numbers. but id say say soulkey is favorite though not by a huge margin. maybe 55% or something. its zvz which can be flippy when people are similar skill imo.
I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance, by running away from the scene of an accident.
4
Baalim   Mexico. Oct 21 2020 23:27. Posts 34246
On October 21 2020 01:21 Daut wrote:
I think Soma should be a favorite. Seems like he would be losing less EV vs terran than he gains vs protoss and zerg, and most of the maps seem a little tilted towards Z.
I'm unsure on how to rank the zergs. ZvZ seems kinda random (i.e. is the best ZvZ 60% in 1 match vs the 5th best ZvZ?), ZvP seems soulkey/zero are the best, and ZvT I do like soma but it's probably close with soulkey.
But theres also EV in the uncertainty, lets say Soma vs (T) Flash is 40% to win, but Soma vs (R) Terran Flash is 30% due to non-ideal BO.
Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online
1
Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Oct 22 2020 09:11. Posts 9634
Soma vs Flash is the real final
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whammbot   Belarus. Oct 22 2020 09:49. Posts 517
soulkey's zvz is very mediocre. larva's ain't nothing to call home about too but as are all zergs who aren't in the top 1 to 3. larva though has a bit of momentum lately while soulkey is in a huge slump
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ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 22 2020 10:21. Posts 5070
I don't think either Larva or Soulkey are really ZvZ standouts. I think Larva is the small favourite in reality, but -165 is too steep to be a +EV bet in my eyes. Nobody has really dominated ZvZ in the fashion Jaedong once did and nobody really stands out above anyone else when you're talking about the top half-a-dozen or so Zergs.
Regarding Soma, he has gone 0-5 vs Bisu in sponbbang games today! I still think he's currently the best Zerg overall though. He seems to have highest winrates ZvZ vs every other top Zerg I've checked stats of, he's consistently the most difficult opponent for the top Terran players along with SoulKey and consistently very strong in ZvP also. Must say though, it was a real shame Bisu threw it hard in the group stages, he still is crushing it online and could've gone far in this ASL given how strong he is vs Zerg, and with so many Zergs remaining.
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
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DooMeR   United States. Oct 22 2020 14:23. Posts 8544
On October 22 2020 09:21 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
I don't think either Larva or Soulkey are really ZvZ standouts. I think Larva is the small favourite in reality, but -165 is too steep to be a +EV bet in my eyes. Nobody has really dominated ZvZ in the fashion Jaedong once did and nobody really stands out above anyone else when you're talking about the top half-a-dozen or so Zergs.
Regarding Soma, he has gone 0-5 vs Bisu in sponbbang games today! I still think he's currently the best Zerg overall though. He seems to have highest winrates ZvZ vs every other top Zerg I've checked stats of, he's consistently the most difficult opponent for the top Terran players along with SoulKey and consistently very strong in ZvP also. Must say though, it was a real shame Bisu threw it hard in the group stages, he still is crushing it online and could've gone far in this ASL given how strong he is vs Zerg, and with so many Zergs remaining.
ye it rly seems bisu has just been underperforming for quite a while. His pvt not being amazing also kind of hurts him. I watch terran streams frequently and it always seems like stork does way better than bisu. Granted stork is known for good pvt but still. Terrans nowadays seem to be doing quite well vs protoss except snow. So he really needs to bring that MU up a bit.
I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance, by running away from the scene of an accident.
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 27 2020 11:10. Posts 466
LIVE NOW!!
Queen vs Best, Ro8, Bo5.
Last edit: 27/10/2020 11:11
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captainhook   Canada. Oct 27 2020 11:19. Posts 466
i feel like flash is likely going to be about 40% vs soma. and 50/50 vs a larva final and 40% vs queen.
its definitely possible that flash could take it which is what im rooting for.
I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance, by running away from the scene of an accident.
4
PoorUser   United States. Oct 28 2020 02:35. Posts 7471
lol at however betting sites try to set the line on flash vs soma
Gambler Emeritus
1
Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Oct 28 2020 09:53. Posts 9634
On October 28 2020 01:35 PoorUser wrote:
lol at however betting sites try to set the line on flash vs soma
Any betting sites open to Europeans for BW? Thought Pinnacle would have it but they don't
Last edit: 28/10/2020 09:54
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Daut   United States. Oct 29 2020 07:14. Posts 8955
b07, Flash -182 Soma +135
I disagree with it. These maps are strong for zerg, and also kind of strong against random (free expansions, easy to block ramps, semi island map, 2 player map). But that's a lot of vig too, and obviously Flash can pull some surprises out with P or Z and is a large favorite with T. IDK, I still think it's close to a flip but leaning Soma.
NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut
1
captainhook   Canada. Oct 29 2020 09:33. Posts 466
On October 29 2020 06:14 Daut wrote:
b07, Flash -182 Soma +135
I disagree with it. These maps are strong for zerg, and also kind of strong against random (free expansions, easy to block ramps, semi island map, 2 player map). But that's a lot of vig too, and obviously Flash can pull some surprises out with P or Z and is a large favorite with T. IDK, I still think it's close to a flip but leaning Soma.
What do you think the exact wins - losses for Soma would be? There's a book that's laying +560 or so for Soma to win 4 - 3, 4 - 2.
If Soma wins this, I think Flash could win at least two games in the series... Dunno.
Last edit: 29/10/2020 09:33
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captainhook   Canada. Oct 29 2020 09:35. Posts 466
Question for the zerg players: does the Benzene triple hatch build Flash did hold against an 11 pool? It actually seemed like he would get the sunken up quicker than expected, but obv loses immediately to 9 or earlier pool.
Agree though, underwhelming series overall. I had volume off, but wasn't sure Flash canceled his nexus before Soma lings took it down on Ringing Bloom. The game with drops was awesome, really nicely done dmatrix on the dropships and attack both 3rd and main. Seems like Soma was expecting a slow tank push on his natural and thought he would have ultra/crack/swarm in time to stop it, but wasn't expecting Flash's idea. Just love watching Flash play TvZ so much, he's so much more active than Light, at the cost of some efficiency, but it's more fun.
NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut
Question for the zerg players: does the Benzene triple hatch build Flash did hold against an 11 pool? It actually seemed like he would get the sunken up quicker than expected, but obv loses immediately to 9 or earlier pool.
Agree though, underwhelming series overall. I had volume off, but wasn't sure Flash canceled his nexus before Soma lings took it down on Ringing Bloom. The game with drops was awesome, really nicely done dmatrix on the dropships and attack both 3rd and main. Seems like Soma was expecting a slow tank push on his natural and thought he would have ultra/crack/swarm in time to stop it, but wasn't expecting Flash's idea. Just love watching Flash play TvZ so much, he's so much more active than Light, at the cost of some efficiency, but it's more fun.
I've never done any build like Flash did so I'm not sure how the timings pan out, but I imagine especially on a map like Benzene with super large rush distances it would be fine vs 11 or 12 pool. He was probably edging his bets, figuring an advantage vs 12 hatch expansion or 11/12 pool builds which are somewhat common vs random and just praying no 9 pool.
Not a surprising result between Queen and Larva today. Queen is the best in the world at ZvZ, and the rock-paper-scissors elements were in Queen's favour today. Soma is 2nd best ZvZ in the world at the moment imo so the final will probably be closer than todays games unless one player gets a significant break in fortune in rock-paper-scissors
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
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Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Nov 02 2020 17:19. Posts 9634
For some reason I cannot post a link of Queen vs Larva without the timer being at the last game even though I've removed all the parameters .... anyway game is up
Last edit: 02/11/2020 17:20
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Daut   United States. Nov 02 2020 23:04. Posts 8955
Midian, is the edge in ZvZ smaller than other matchups? Just pulling numbers out of my ass, but I'd venture a guess that a 2500 Terran is just about 0% to beat a 2750 Protoss. Is that also true for ZvZ? It did seem like in the past Soulkey and Larva were constantly losing important ZvZ in tournaments to guys like Action and failing to win even though they were stronger ZvP and ZvT players, but I can't shake the RPS type feel of the matchup that makes it seem like more of a flip.
NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut
1
captainhook   Canada. Nov 03 2020 05:36. Posts 466
How good is larva ZvP and ZvT?
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Daut   United States. Nov 03 2020 06:31. Posts 8955
I defer to eriador/midian, but my guess for zerg rankings each matchup:
NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Nov 03 2020 11:28. Posts 5070
I feel like edges in ZvZ are a bit smaller than the other matchups due to the nature of build order advantages which occur even before you get to scout and feel more severe than they are vs Terran or Protoss. However, I created a spreadsheet a couple of days ago with the winrates of the top 6 Zerg players based on stats taken from sponbbang filtered for 2020. I averaged out the winrates of the top 6 ELO rated Zergs against the top 4 ELO rated Terrans, top 4 Protoss players and the other top 6 Zergs. The highest average winrate against the other top 6 Zergs was Queen, which was an average 57.95%, even higher than it was vs the top 4 Protoss players (57.91%) and way higher than any zerg has managed vs the top 4 Terrans. Granted top 4 and top 6 isn't the same and the sample sizes in mirror matchups are a lot smaller, but it's at least some evidence that these pros actually do find edges. 193 is the most and 104 games is the least sample I have for any of the top 6 Zergs in ZvZ, whereas in ZvT 351 is the smallest sample I have and 233 games is the smallest sample I have vs Protoss. Both of those samples are SoulKey btw, it seems he simply plays less than the other guys, at least as far as spon games are concerned.
Using the stats from my spreadsheet I would say the Zerg rankings are as follows:
Daut, since you're a mathematician and probably have a better grasp of using stats than I do, what do you think is the better method for judging ability between adding all the wins and losses against a set of players and using that winrate to determine a ranking order, or take the winrates against each individual in the sample and averaging the winrates? I used the latter so that if a player had played substantially more games against Flash or Bisu their winrates aren't penalised as badly as they would be if I had just taken overall wins and losses vs the top 4 players. Hope you understand what I mean, just woke up and struggling to make sense!
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
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Daut   United States. Nov 03 2020 16:29. Posts 8955
Maybe the best way is to take the weighted average sum of the differences between their winrates against each specific player and the opponent's winrate in that matchup.
i.e., imagine soulkey wins in ZvT vs Flash 30% of the time, but Flash wins 78% of TvZ matches (so the zerg wins 22%). And soulkey played Flash in 30% of the matches you're looking at. You could give soulkey 8% * 30% (8% better than avg and 30% of his weighted better than average total goes to this stat) = 2.4% better than average just for Flash. Do this for every player in your group for every matchup, and I think you'll have a decent ranking for each one.
So just to kind of write a totally made up example out.
Let's say Soulkey plays against Flash, Light, Rush, and Sharp in your standings.
There's a slight problem in that Flash is such a GOAT, the win %s vs him have less range. Could also do % better, so like 30/24, 40/31, 52/40, 57/45 instead, and then average those in the same way.
NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut
Last edit: 03/11/2020 16:55
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Nov 03 2020 16:56. Posts 5070
That makes sense tbf, but I'm a bit lazy to do it haha. I sent you the spreadsheet in discord anyway if you'd like to have a go with the stats in there and compile a ranking using the method you mention?
Edit to make a quick note: I have sOrry as the 4th Terran rather than Sharp, he's currently got a higher ELO rating on sponbbang
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
Last edit: 03/11/2020 17:18
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blackjacki2   United States. Nov 04 2020 01:49. Posts 2581
since this never got posted
1
captainhook   Canada. Nov 07 2020 11:42. Posts 466
Ok, finally understood how to write spoilers. Fun series, too bad some games ended that quick. Also would have been an epic ending if Queens strategy in Game 6 would have worked
Last edit: 15/11/2020 13:17
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lostaccount   Canada. Nov 15 2020 15:02. Posts 5738
I want to see a 4 player ffa tournament lol
-_-;;
1
lostaccount   Canada. Nov 15 2020 15:04. Posts 5738
I haven’t watch it yet but I want queen to win cause I need a queen
-_-;;
1
lostaccount   Canada. Nov 15 2020 15:51. Posts 5738
It be nice to see an all random tournament 2
-_-;;
1
Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Nov 15 2020 19:25. Posts 9634
Jelle   Belgium. Nov 15 2020 21:21. Posts 3476
haven't watched asl in forever and I really got into it
GroT
4
Daut   United States. Nov 16 2020 03:02. Posts 8955
One of the least enjoyable seasons in recent memory, but still not too bad with some fun Flash random mixed in, but most of the games/series were just a little lopsided and the maps favored zerg a bit too much. Can't help but wonder how much different everything would have been if Light made it through. Light is absolutely wrecking people in the ultimate battle event, which is basically him playing a bo9 vs top protoss/terran players until he loses. I think he's won about 10 straight, and only person who came close was Soulkey.
edit:
Light has won 8 in a row:
7-2 hero
5-4 shuttle
7-2 larva
7-2 queen
5-4 best
5-4 soulkey
7-2 mini
6-3 snow
Really impressive stuff.
NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut
Last edit: 16/11/2020 03:05
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Nov 16 2020 17:59. Posts 5070
Yeah, this is why Light was such a big favourite to get out of his group, but he fucked it up big time. He even beat all 3 players in his group without dropping a game in race wars the day prior to his ASL group.
Tbh I don't even think the maps were all that zerg favoured, with the exception of Benzene, or at least sponbbang stats do not show them to be Zerg favoured. Plasma, Ringing Bloom and Optimiser are all actually pretty bad for Zerg, statistically speaking. Unclear on Shakuras since sample sizes are very limited and Polypoid is somewhat neutral. I forget if there's any other maps in there, but I don't think this pool has been particularly great for Zerg personally.
I think largely Protoss players aren't really that strong overall at the moment. Bisu is great online, but kinda threw it in the group stages. Best and SnOw are good, but inconsistent and are both kind of let down by their PvZ. They also just simply did not perform as they are capable in the RO8 where they both got smashed 3-0 by Zergs, Best in particular was in a very good spot in a couple of those games.
Terran obviously suffered from FlaSh being random. Light fucked up in the group stages. Rush is strong vs P/Z, but ran into FlaSh. sOrry is performing well online but didn't perform as he can in ASL. Zerg has like 6 really strong and competitive players at this moment in time, I think they just have the greatest number of good players and that it is very little to do with the maps. There's just so much depth with Zerg players atm. Like the 6th best Zerg is a lot better than the 6th best Terran or Protoss imo. I actually do not think Queen is the best player in the world, AT ALL, despite winning 2 ASLs in a row. FlaSh is better if he just plays Terran, and I actually think Light has a higher peak than Queen also. Bisu is there or thereabouts when he performs to his ability. Last and Rain were also right up there too, but it seems they have quit and that also hurts T and P respectively.
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
Last edit: 16/11/2020 18:01
4
Daut   United States. Nov 16 2020 18:26. Posts 8955
Yea agree don't think Queen is the best in the world. Would also say Flash >>> Light > Queen, and think Rain/Last are also better when active. But don't think anyone else other than those 5 are particularly close.
Zerg definitely has more depth and strength like you said. The reason I thought the maps were good for Z were more so that they were good for ZvP -- I haven't watched much of Plasma, but man does ZvP seem lopsided there, quick lurker to kill the eggs just seemed to instantly kill every protoss player. Ringing Bloom seems like it should be pretty good for PvZ but then I just watched protosses get rekt over and over on it. Benzene super strong for zerg. The others all did seem relatively neutral. And had no opinions on ZvT TvZ.
NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut
Last edit: 16/11/2020 18:29
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Nov 16 2020 19:08. Posts 5070
Let's check sponbbang and see how Zerg favoured these maps are.
Filtering the maps to games played in 2020 only.
For 'average winrate' I just added up the win percentage from each map and divided by 7 to get an average winrate to avoid bias in terms of number of games played on each map.
Total - 2313W 1755L (56.9%)
Average winrate - 58.8%
Here is PvT, to get a complete picture:
Polypoid - 619W 671L (48%)
Eclipse - 321W 322L (49.9%)
Optimizer - 149W 191L (43.8%)
Ringing Bloom - 164W 107L (60.5%)
Benzene - 94W 56L (62.7%)
Shakuras Temple - 87W 116L (42.9%)
Plasma - 18W 10L (64.3%)
Total - 1452W 1473L (49.6%)
Average winrate - 53.2%
I would call this a Terran favoured map pool really. On these maps T>Z is the most imbalanced matchup pretty much no matter how you slice it. Terran also very competitive vs Protoss, maybe even favoured depending on how you want to look at it. I think you could also make an argument to suggest Zerg is actually WEAKEST on these maps.
Optimizer and Shakuras are pretty hardcore Terran maps. Benzene is a pretty hardcore Zerg map. Plasma and Ringing Bloom are pretty hardcore Protoss maps. The other 2, Polypoid and Eclipse, are somewhat reasonable maps, although ZvT and PvZ are still difficult matchups to play on those maps. This map pool was just shit overall imo. Either that or we really need more innovation from players
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
Last edit: 16/11/2020 19:28
1
Jelle   Belgium. Nov 16 2020 21:05. Posts 3476
wtf was this really a bad season comparatively? That's it I'm going back to binge watch everything I missed
GroT
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Nov 16 2020 21:27. Posts 5070
Yeah I don't think it was overall a good season either tbh. Not very many close matchups or memorable games. Plus shit map pool. And a mirror matchup final. Only thing that really set this season apart is that FlaSh tried random
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
4
Daut   United States. Nov 16 2020 21:58. Posts 8955
Maybe the Ps just shit the bed every time I watched them. Have probably seen like 5 different PvZ on Plasma and Protoss never made it to 15 minutes lol
NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Nov 16 2020 22:33. Posts 5070
I mean sample size on sponbbang for games played on Plasma is obviously tiny. When the pros first started playing the map Zerg was getting smashed. Best beat Queen 4:0 there that I saw on Queen's stream, and might have even been worse than that. With my limited Korean skills I could tell that Best felt very confident on that map vs Queen, and that Queen felt like he was fighting uphill. Somehow Best fucked up in the game that mattered though. His build was dogshit, trying to somehow go down every tech tree path at once. He knew Queen was all in, all he needed to do was continue making goons, add reaver and he would hold. Or he could have made more cannons near the eggs than the one he made. Action picked that map on ASL vs someone, maybe that was Best too, brought some proxy hatch build, killed a nexus and still lost lol... It might be that over time Zerg's have faired better there, but I'm still of the belief that it's a pretty big anti Zerg map.
One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope
1
Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Nov 17 2020 16:27. Posts 9634
On November 16 2020 02:02 Daut wrote:
One of the least enjoyable seasons in recent memory, but still not too bad with some fun Flash random mixed in, but most of the games/series were just a little lopsided and the maps favored zerg a bit too much. Can't help but wonder how much different everything would have been if Light made it through. Light is absolutely wrecking people in the ultimate battle event, which is basically him playing a bo9 vs top protoss/terran players until he loses. I think he's won about 10 straight, and only person who came close was Soulkey.
edit:
Light has won 8 in a row:
7-2 hero
5-4 shuttle
7-2 larva
7-2 queen
5-4 best
5-4 soulkey
7-2 mini
6-3 snow
Really impressive stuff.
Are those available somewhere?
Also why are they playing the full 9 games? If someone loses 0-5 its unlikely they will have their A game for the last 4 games
Last edit: 17/11/2020 16:28
1
ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Nov 17 2020 16:38. Posts 5070
On November 16 2020 02:02 Daut wrote:
One of the least enjoyable seasons in recent memory, but still not too bad with some fun Flash random mixed in, but most of the games/series were just a little lopsided and the maps favored zerg a bit too much. Can't help but wonder how much different everything would have been if Light made it through. Light is absolutely wrecking people in the ultimate battle event, which is basically him playing a bo9 vs top protoss/terran players until he loses. I think he's won about 10 straight, and only person who came close was Soulkey.
edit:
Light has won 8 in a row:
7-2 hero
5-4 shuttle
7-2 larva
7-2 queen
5-4 best
5-4 soulkey
7-2 mini
6-3 snow
Really impressive stuff.
Are those available somewhere?
Also why are they playing the full 9 games? If someone loses 0-5 its unlikely they will have their A game for the last 4 games