ASL Season 10 - Page 2

Is not apologizing a thing here?

I'm mostly joking, but there s plenty of people that would rather feed their egos than apologize even indirectly, anyways don't want to derail the thread further.

I can't wait to see Flash will do playing random.... this time they cant fuck him with maps but wonder if the RNG factor will play to his side.

^ Yup. I'm thinking of betting against him in some match ups.

Got Rush to win later.

Where do u bet at?

Pinnacle

Live now!

lets go jaedong he was my favourite but not hes just average

my money is on snow now

Live soon. Got Action and Sharp parlay. Lezzgoo!!

Ro16 groups/schedule

Predictions:
A - Queen + Rush
B - Light + Action
C - SnOw + herO (Unless FlaSh gets Terran a couple of times - in which case SnOw + FlaSh)
D - soma + SoulKey

If this comes true it would suck quite a bit since there'd only be 1 Protoss remaining, but I think Best advancing is fairly unlikely and free advancing very unlikely. I could see one of Mini or Shuttle advancing but think majority of the time it's soma + SoulKey in Group D

I found the group selection stage pretty strange. I don't understand why Light picked Best when there were potentially weaker players to choose from early on or why Best picked Larva. Group B seems pretty tough.

Looking at the players in the groups zergs look really good, but looking at the maps, not so much, particularly tvz.

Polypoid tvz 962 - 729, 56.9%

Eclipse tvz 503 - 443, 53.2%

Optimizer tvz 228 - 116, 66.3%

Ringing Bloom tvz 110 - 80, 57.9%

Benzene tvz 90 - 122, 42.5%

Shakuras temple tvz 23 - 11, 67.6%

Plasma tvz 18 - 11, 62.1%

So one zerg favored map, one map within 45-55 range, and 5 pretty clearly terran favored ones. (Fair that shakuras and plasma have smaller sample sizes though.)

Pvz looks quite different, with most maps being slightly z favored - Ringing Bloom and Plasma being the only two exceptions. Plasma small sample size, but 16-7 is enough where it's big anyway.

Pvt is between 45-55% either way for every map other than Benzene, where terran is 61-39.

I still favor zero (queen) to make it from his group because he's a lot better than leta and jyj, but it's hard to picture light losing to action or larva. Agreed that group B looks really tough.

Sponbbang ranking from july - october:
1: Flash
2: Light
3: Bisu
4: Action
5: Best
6: Mini
7: Soulkey
8: I think Free
9: Zero (Queen)
10: Sorry
11: Soma
12: Rush
13: Larva
14: Sharp
15: Hero

So going with:
Queen Rush (imo most straight forward group)
Light +Action (but this group is super tough. Best and Larva are both very good)
Flash+Snow (Bad group for Flash, his z is weaker than p+t, and his pvp is weaker than his pvz and pvt. I still think he's gonna pull through though. If he was in a group facing terrans+zergs, I'd be very confident in him. At the same time, random zerg vs protoss is a really good matchup, so even though picked zvp he'd be in big trouble, I think he's only an underdog if he randoms pvp or zvz.)
And group D it's basically just.. not shuttle.
(shuttle has been a total punching bag for top zergs lately. Some select stats: 11 - 58 vs Action, 10 - 18 vs Soulkey, 10 - 46 vs Zero, 6 - 24 vs Soma, 16-56 vs Larva, 23 - 75 vs hero.. )

Agreed the maps seem to be T>Z, but regarding Queen here are his 2020 sponbbang stats vs the 3 terrans in his group:

vs ??? (Leta) 14:0 (100%)
vs ??? (JyJ) 26:11 (70.3%)
vs ??? (Rush) 57:43 (57%)

Gotta think it would be a big upset if he didn't make it out all things considered. He has looked pretty weak vs T on his Stream from what I've seen in the last week though! Really hope he makes it.

In terms of Light vs the two zergs in his group:
vs ??? (Larva) 87:56 (60.8%)
vs ??? (Action) 64:42 (60.4%)

Also surprisingly to me, Light's winrates vs P (60.3%) and T (72.1%) are better than they are vs zerg (60.2%) in 2020 sponbbang games, though this may be due to the fact that he's played WAY more games vs Z than P or T, and the bulk of those games vs Z are against the best zergs in the world; SoulKey, Queen, Soma, Action, Larva. Only SoulKey has a winning record in ZvT vs Light, and only 52% at that.

Got some time to kill so while we're at it, here's every head to head matchup stats from sponbbang filtered to just games played in 2020:

Group A
Queen v Leta 14:0 (100%)
Queen v JyJ 26:11 (70.3%)
Queen v Rush 57:43 (57%)
Rush v Leta no games on record
Rush v JyJ 10:10 (50%)
JyJ v Leta no games on record

JyJ v Rush a bit of a toss up, so it's very conceivable that Queen makes it out first and then it's a tossup between JyJ and Rush for the last spot. Rush of course has a better chance of beating Queen, though. Leta has fuck all games on record in general, just 189, compared to Rush who has over 2k for instance. He has to be the biggest outsider in this group... It's a fucking miracle he got this far in all honesty!

Group B
Light v Action 64:42 (60.4%)
Light v Best 29:26 (52.7%)
Light v Larva 87:56 (60.8%)
Action v Best 45:40 (52.9%)
Action v Larva 4:4 (50%)
Best v Larva 38:47 (44.7%)

Very close group... Light is the favourite, and then on paper Larva vs Action is a tossup and Best is a small underdog to all 3 players in the group. Could be any combination of 2 players really, especially if Best were to beat Light and put him in loser's match if they play first, that would really make the group exciting. Light and FlaSh are the only Terrans with a winning record vs Best in the sample I'm looking at and both are only small favourites, Best is really a savage in PvT.

Group C
FlaSh v free 4:0 (100%)
FlaSh v herO 34:10 (77.3%)
FlaSh v SnOw 25:14 (64.1%)
free v herO 14:54 (20.6%)
free v SnOw 6:6 (50%)
hero v SnOw 72:49 (59.5%)

Unsure if these stats are purely FlaSh playing Terran or not, I assume they are though so are obviously not terribly representative. If FlaSh were Terran I would pick him first and herO second based on these stats. herO is a total beast ZvP, and is underrated in general so I believe he is a favourite in a head to head with SnOw. The only toss with a positive winrate vs herO on sponbbang is Bisu, SnOw has the 2nd best winrate and herO is still winning almost 60% there! Free is basically drawing dead in this group, but has some ability to ruin SnOw's day.

Group D
Mini v Shuttle 8:4 (66.7%)
Mini v soma 55:57 (49.1%)
Mini v SoulKey 16:32 (33.3%)
Shuttle v soma 6:24 (20%)
Shuttle v SoulKey 10:18 (35.7%)
soma v SoulKey 8:4 (66.7%)

As drone said, Shuttle is drawing very thin here. He is clearly practicing hard at the moment though - There's 23 games on his sponbbang alone just for 1st October. So maybe he can spring what would certainly be considered a surprise. The other 3 players are all capable of getting out of the group, but I think Mini is the least likely of the three.

On October 01 2020 10:17 Liquid`Drone wrote: Looking at the players in the groups zergs look really good, but looking at the maps, not so much, particularly tvz. Polypoid tvz 962 - 729, 56.9% Eclipse tvz 503 - 443, 53.2% Optimizer tvz 228 - 116, 66.3% Ringing Bloom tvz 110 - 80, 57.9% Benzene tvz 90 - 122, 42.5% Shakuras temple tvz 23 - 11, 67.6% Plasma tvz 18 - 11, 62.1% So one zerg favored map, one map within 45-55 range, and 5 pretty clearly terran favored ones. (Fair that shakuras and temple have smaller sample sizes though.) Pvz looks quite different, with most maps being slightly z favored - Ringing Bloom and Plasma being the only two exceptions. Plasma small sample size, but 16-7 is enough where it's big anyway. Pvt is between 45-55% either way for every map other than Benzene, where terran is 61-39. I still favor zero (queen) to make it from his group because he's a lot better than leta and jyj, but it's hard to picture light losing to action or larva. Agreed that group B looks really tough. Sponbbang ranking from july - october: 1: Flash 2: Light 3: Bisu 4: Action 5: Best 6: Mini 7: Soulkey 8: I think Free 9: Zero (Queen) 10: Sorry 11: Soma 12: Rush 13: Larva 14: Sharp 15: Hero So going with: Queen Rush (imo most straight forward group) Light +Action (but this group is super tough. Best and Larva are both very good) Flash+Snow (Bad group for Flash, his z is weaker than p+t, and his pvp is weaker than his pvz and pvt. I still think he's gonna pull through though. If he was in a group facing terrans+zergs, I'd be very confident in him. At the same time, random zerg vs protoss is a really good matchup, so even though picked zvp he'd be in big trouble, I think he's only an underdog if he randoms pvp or zvz.) And group D it's basically just.. not shuttle. (shuttle has been a total punching bag for top zergs lately. Some select stats: 11 - 58 vs Action, 10 - 18 vs Soulkey, 10 - 46 vs Zero, 6 - 24 vs Soma, 16-56 vs Larva, 23 - 75 vs hero.. )

#8 is SnOw btw.
Free is now #15 though, pushing herO back to #16

On October 01 2020 00:02 ToT)MidiaN( wrote: Predictions: A - Queen + Rush B - Light + Action C - SnOw + herO (Unless FlaSh gets Terran a couple of times - in which case SnOw + FlaSh) D - soma + SoulKey If this comes true it would suck quite a bit since there'd only be 1 Protoss remaining, but I think Best advancing is fairly unlikely and free advancing very unlikely. I could see one of Mini or Shuttle advancing but think majority of the time it's soma + SoulKey in Group D

Mostly agree. I think Shuttle could have a slight chance of going thru tho.

As for my bets, got Rush and Light parlay, Snow and Soma parlay, betting small on Free playing random Flash.

Figured sponbbang out.

Cancel the Snow, Soma parlay. I think Hero got this and he's the underdog. Adding that and Soma, Soulkey parlay.

So gonna get Rush - Light parlay, Soma - Soulkey parlay, Hero and gamble on Free. All for plus money.

On October 01 2020 10:17 Liquid`Drone wrote: Looking at the players in the groups zergs look really good, but looking at the maps, not so much, particularly tvz. Polypoid tvz 962 - 729, 56.9% Eclipse tvz 503 - 443, 53.2% Optimizer tvz 228 - 116, 66.3% Ringing Bloom tvz 110 - 80, 57.9% Benzene tvz 90 - 122, 42.5% Shakuras temple tvz 23 - 11, 67.6% Plasma tvz 18 - 11, 62.1% So one zerg favored map, one map within 45-55 range, and 5 pretty clearly terran favored ones. (Fair that shakuras and temple have smaller sample sizes though.) Pvz looks quite different, with most maps being slightly z favored - Ringing Bloom and Plasma being the only two exceptions. Plasma small sample size, but 16-7 is enough where it's big anyway. Pvt is between 45-55% either way for every map other than Benzene, where terran is 61-39.

Where did you get those stats?

The stats can be found on sponbbang.com

On October 02 2020 09:09 captainhook wrote: Show nested quote + On October 01 2020 00:02 ToT)MidiaN( wrote: Predictions: A - Queen + Rush B - Light + Action C - SnOw + herO (Unless FlaSh gets Terran a couple of times - in which case SnOw + FlaSh) D - soma + SoulKey If this comes true it would suck quite a bit since there'd only be 1 Protoss remaining, but I think Best advancing is fairly unlikely and free advancing very unlikely. I could see one of Mini or Shuttle advancing but think majority of the time it's soma + SoulKey in Group D Mostly agree. I think Shuttle could have a slight chance of going thru tho. As for my bets, got Rush and Light parlay, Snow and Soma parlay, betting small on Free playing random Flash.

I think 3 players are almost certainly not gonna make it out, check the full stats write up I did a few posts above. Those players being Leta, free and Shuttle lol. Of course at this level in a bo1 anyone has SOME chance but looking at stats it would be very surprising if any of those 3 made it out. Wouldn't be a giant surprise if any of the other 13 players made it through though imo.