ASL Season 10 - Page 3

Sad Shuttle went to that group at the last minute.. I think he has been playing well and could push thru to the finals if he makes Ro.8.

Figured sponbbang out.

Cancel the Snow, Soma parlay. I think Hero got this and he's the underdog. Adding that and Soma, Soulkey parlay.

So gonna get Rush - Light parlay, Soma - Soulkey parlay, Hero and gamble on Free. All for plus money.

And what do you guys think of Action vs Larva? The line is close.

Perhaps herO is a betting underdog, because he has never really achieved that much in offline tournaments. He's great ZvP in practice games online, but can he deliver on stage? SnOw has delivered before. So, although the map pool and herO v SnOw head to heads stats favour herO, that might not translate to an advantage in this tournament setting.

Action v Larva looked at in more detail in the post below.

Ok so had a look at a few more stats to try and figure out a favourite between Action and Larva. Here are their respective winrates against the other 4 remaining zergs in ASL (herO, Queen, soma, SoulKey)

Action Overall ZvZ 130:107 (54.9%)
Action v herO 15 : 9 (62.5%)
Action v Queen 13:13 (50%)
Action v soma 7:12 (36.8%)
Action v SoulKey 12:13 (48%)
Combined vs the 4 above 47:47 (50%)

Larva Overall ZvZ 86:84 (50.6%)
Larva v herO 17:21 (44.7%)
Larva v Queen 12:15 (44.4%)
Larva v soma 12:16 (42.9%)
Larva v SoulKey 4:4 (50%)
Combined vs the 4 above 45:56 (44.6%)

The overall stat can be taken with a pinch of salt since obviously it's going to depend largely on the number of games played against top competition and the number of games played against weaker players. However, Action has a better winrate overall for what that's worth, and also when focusing just on games played against the 4 zergs remaining in ASL, we can see that Action has faired better there also.

So I think it would probably be fair to call Action a small favourite. Larva is also well known for underdelivering in offline events, but Action has a lot of hype around him at the moment so that could play a part and get to him also.

Action a small favorite seems right, but it's in the 55-45 or 60-40 range tops.

Any sponbang stats on Flash as random or off race? His P seems pretty solid, his Z seems good but a bit worse.

Not that I'm aware of :/

On October 03 2020 16:02 Daut wrote: Any sponbang stats on Flash as random or off race? His P seems pretty solid, his Z seems good but a bit worse.

We'll see... Free is +450 in some books.

Haha Condit showed everybody.

Wrong thread.

On October 04 2020 02:03 captainhook wrote: Show nested quote + On October 03 2020 16:02 Daut wrote: Any sponbang stats on Flash as random or off race? His P seems pretty solid, his Z seems good but a bit worse. We'll see... Free is +450 in some books.

+450 to get out the group? bad value even at that if so imo

To beat random Flash. I'm gambling.

Could be reasonable in bo1 then! He probably has an ok shot if it's PvP

I feel like everyone is going to expect Flash to just cheese the shit out of them, but he ends up playing the macro game and dominates them

Well Flash prob has the best mechanics of all time so :D
If that translates to his offraces he should still be trying to play straight up

On October 04 2020 18:43 ToT)MidiaN( wrote: Could be reasonable in bo1 then! He probably has an ok shot if it's PvP

It's vs Free tho. So dunno. Maybe.

It will be interesting to see the scouting and openings of opponents vs Flash.

On October 05 2020 20:21 Baalim wrote: It will be interesting to see the scouting and openings of opponents vs Flash.

Safest would prolly be to assume he drew T then adjust from there once scouted.

On October 06 2020 01:06 captainhook wrote: Show nested quote + On October 05 2020 20:21 Baalim wrote: It will be interesting to see the scouting and openings of opponents vs Flash. Safest would prolly be to assume he drew T then adjust from there once scouted.

I dont think so because you have to protect yourself from zergling rush, if you assume T and go greedy fast expo you are dead.

On October 06 2020 06:03 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On October 06 2020 01:06 captainhook wrote:   On October 05 2020 20:21 Baalim wrote: It will be interesting to see the scouting and openings of opponents vs Flash. Safest would prolly be to assume he drew T then adjust from there once scouted. I dont think so because you have to protect yourself from zergling rush, if you assume T and go greedy fast expo you are dead.

Right! Damn... I'm actually more excited to see it now.

LIVE NOW!



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Winner's round is bo3 at ro.16? I don't think I remember ASL had it from the seasons before this.

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