On March 16 2020 20:59 Spitfiree wrote:
Yeah, I believe your opinion on that is quite untrue. It's hard to point anything 'outlandish' since your previous comment is ' its better to panic than take it lightly' so you're trying to find the middle ground I suppose, that's fair.
The thing is, this event is already unprecedented in our modern history post-antibiotics. People give examples of the spanish flu yet they forget that it still managed to kill millions, while mass transport was only a sci-fi belief for decades to come. We're not prepared, I'm actually glad that politicians started panicking, but its already too late now. We're most likely going to be stuck at least for a few months just to slow it down and then if we're lucky there won't be a second wave in the autumn/winter. There's not going to be a vaccine any time soon. Everything points out to this virus going to go through its entire growth cycle
So to make the points:
-almost every public business will be closed for months
-businesses that have them as clients will also be hurt directly out of that
-we'll be stuck in our homes
This is pretty much a dystopian situation right now, im not sure what else you'd consider as 'society collapsing' but anything worse than that is basically our extinction
What we're lucky about is that this isnt some superbug immune to antibiotics
Have to agree and after 1 week of exhausting writing and talking and phoning people and trying to finding plausible arguments that counter the data I found.... I am basically accepting that I try my best, will only convince a small population and brace for impact. In 2 weeks the same people will come back to me for advise and I will forgive and help, I hope they only show my text to their friends and laugh because I am proven wrong. The worst part is the intellectual fatigue with people of high IQ, I have a hard time forgiving them. I talked today with my aunt who is a retired doctor. She had 2 burn outs because she couldn't leave people in need and was always taking everything to heart. Today I talked to her about the numbers, the crisis ahead and all that stuff. She agreed with everything but told me to stay cool and not panic and that we cannot do much anyways. Yet doesn't go to the press, doesn't talk with virus experts, doesn't call people up. I talked to her about exponential growth and how she is not equipped to understand it and that it will be much worse and that she can save lives right now by not only isolating but also convincing others. She is contemplating to come back out of retirement to help with the worst cases of the epidemic when she already has health conditions and is in the highest mortality rate. The manual labor to save people in the hospital is so much less productive in a few weeks than telling 1-2 people that have influence to understand the data and act accordingly. It is sickening how stupid everyone is and the cost to benefit ratio is so outlandish, worst case you will be made fun of. I really feel like I am going crazy with this, it is so saddening to see. The worst part everyone with a decent brain who looked at the data agrees with me, they are just in different modes of acceptance instead of calling people up. I don't understand
On the brighter side of things, you will have learned quite a bit about the world you live in and the people with whom you share this earth, and the meaninglessness of things like IQ, which isn't representative of general intelligence or "wisdom".
The reason we are in this situation, fundamentally, is because people have a blind faith in authorities, and have been robbed of their autonomy, and kept in the dark about the way power operates in this world. Whether it's because they believe in some God or some political party, or their parents or community leaders; people have never been equipped to think for themselves. The societies of mass consumption that we exist in can only survive because of this fact.
The positives of something like this might be to reawaken the need for mutual aid and a general disillusionment with representationalism, but I wouldn't hold my breath. This is just the beginning of a series of crises that have been in the cards for a long time and which a profit-oriented world could not be prepared to handle properly, and it pales in comparison with the impacts that climate change will have. The way you feel right now is the way millions of ecologically-conscious people have been feeling for years: that we are walking towards a cliff as a species and most people don't seem to notice or be able to care, and it's depressing and anxiety-inducing to have to interact with such people and also depressing and anxiety-inducing to resign yourself to the fact that nothing is likely going to change before it's too late.
mostly agree with Loco
Couple more important things people might have learned from this (which ties into the faith in representationalism I mentioned):
- Companies understand that it is completely unnecessary for their business to be in the office
- It is incredible how fast governments and whole industries can make decisions if they have to. They just do so after a lot of avoidable misery has occurred through their own myopic self-interest.
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
Last edit: 17/03/2020 23:23
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Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Mar 18 2020 00:18. Posts 9634
On March 17 2020 18:48 Stroggoz wrote:
I guess this means the end of the eurozone. I don't see it surviving the virus
What makes you say that? It's certainly the biggest challenge after they've had to do with its prior biggest challenge (Brexit) but the EU is responding quite adequately right now, they've reinvested all the unspent funds into the healthcare systems of all EU nations for starters and closed off all border for foreigners. They've also NOT questioned individual states shutting down their borders completely, which I think is a very good thing ( wouldn't have been surprised if bureaucrats tried to argue differently even in times of crisis tbh)
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FiSheYe   Germany. Mar 18 2020 00:22. Posts 214
Basically we don't know what the use of masks it. Certainly some masks are better than others. Also keep in mind the theory that sounds logical to me, if you get sneezed in your mouth (children to this to their parents) the viral load is so much bigger than if you touch a door knob after say 20 hours. Your body has likely the chance to get your immune-system up a lot better and it spreads slower in you. I think it seems irrational not to wear mask when all the countries who are doing "ok" are wearing them and force people to wear them. Just think for a moment
Also keep in mind that your eyes need to be covered, too. Wear something for them.
If you go outside and touch your phone etc. and you come home and wash your hands, don't forget about everything else. If it indeed stays 48-72hours on the phone or metals/plastics, you should make sure that you either keep it in the jacket or clean it first before your hands etc.
We should be crazy careful until we know more. Things are moving so fast, we can see who did well (China / Korea) and we can see who crashes and burns now (Italy, Germany, USA, etc.). Then we can see who has the most damage, least, etc. pp
Just don't be a moron, this is the time to be a smart gambler with risk, not a degen
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FiSheYe   Germany. Mar 18 2020 00:23. Posts 214
Also for all you stock market guys. Talked to two friends who have 50-100 Mio. private capital.
One is the founder of poker strategy, once they learned about the situation they sold ALL stox they had. Let that sink in, those are top percentile IQ people.
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VanDerMeyde   Norway. Mar 18 2020 02:21. Posts 5108
I sold the little I had except health care fonds. They increased every day lately also
:D
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Stroggoz   New Zealand. Mar 18 2020 04:29. Posts 5291
On March 17 2020 18:48 Stroggoz wrote:
I guess this means the end of the eurozone. I don't see it surviving the virus
What makes you say that? It's certainly the biggest challenge after they've had to do with its prior biggest challenge (Brexit) but the EU is responding quite adequately right now, they've reinvested all the unspent funds into the healthcare systems of all EU nations for starters and closed off all border for foreigners. They've also NOT questioned individual states shutting down their borders completely, which I think is a very good thing ( wouldn't have been surprised if bureaucrats tried to argue differently even in times of crisis tbh)
this is a good explanation of what's going on. Perhaps i was a bit hyperbolic in that claim.
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
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vasoline73   United States. Mar 18 2020 06:31. Posts 808
Fisheye the virus is likely going to end up in the .06% fatality range. It's large (6X flu) but I would recommend that you start to relax. At this point governments across the western world are taking it very seriously. The average citizen has no choice but to follow stringent measures. We'll be alright man.
I guess what I'm trying to say is... the governments are panicking for you. Everyone is being forced to comply with panicked measures. We'll be alright man. You can take it easier now that others are stepping in to be responsible. Give it a few months and hang tight. Cheers.
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Baalim   Mexico. Mar 18 2020 07:30. Posts 34246
On March 17 2020 10:43 Liquid`Drone wrote:
meh, it's consistent with a 'masks work in certain scenarios' - message. That is; they diminish the spread if you yourself have the virus, they are essential for medical personnel who are working closely with infected people; but for ordinary, non-infected, non-trained people who might get the virus on their hands through touching surfaces and who then keep touching their face a couple times per minute, it might just mean you have the virus next to your mouth and nose for longer.
So sure, if everybody has one then it helps stop the spread, but if you're a healthy dude commuting to work and people around you aren't wearing them, then your own chances of catching it don't decrease. And
if they are in limited supply it becomes significantly more important that medical personnel have them.
I believe it was mostly a messaging to discourage individuals from hoarding them selfishly, which seems important.
this is shortsighted, sure the masks are more useful in sick and doctors but they overall diminish the odds of contagion, if you diminish the odds of contagion and it has a compounding effect like vaccination, efforts to mass produce them should be done, not lying to the public.
Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online
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Baalim   Mexico. Mar 18 2020 07:31. Posts 34246
On March 17 2020 09:14 Baalim wrote:
The same mask advice, the stupidity and hubris of these people.
"Masks dont work... so save them for the healthcare providers" how does that make any fucking sense.. also every single country who has slowed down the spread wear masks compulsively, the ones who are spiraling out of control don't, only a stupid government would follow Italy's steps instead of Korea's, only a stupid person would follow Italians steps instead of Koreans
Or you know, you can panic, tell everyone to go buy masks, meaning supply wont meet demand, people that don't need them will get them and there will be none left for new cases which will escalate the spreading of the disease.
you focus on supply then, governments should have started lines of production for these many weeks ago.
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Baalim   Mexico. Mar 18 2020 07:34. Posts 34246
On March 18 2020 05:31 vasoline73 wrote:
Fisheye the virus is likely going to end up in the .06% fatality range. It's large (6X flu) but I would recommend that you start to relax. At this point governments across the western world are taking it very seriously. The average citizen has no choice but to follow stringent measures. We'll be alright man.
I guess what I'm trying to say is... the governments are panicking for you. Everyone is being forced to comply with panicked measures. We'll be alright man. You can take it easier now that others are stepping in to be responsible. Give it a few months and hang tight. Cheers.
No, the governments are not panincked at all, they are have been always two steps behind even while watching neighbors collapse.
Macron said closing border with Italy wasn't neccesary now they are going into full lockdown, they aren't aggressivly testing, they aren't setting fever-clinics nor quarintine hospitals like Korea, Western leadership has been asleep at the wheel and is finally reacting but too late.
agreed that they took way too long to take it seriously. also in Japan they are still not taking it seriously enough, they don't provide tests for most people who want them, and lots of people are still going to work and commuting as normal, even socializing. Only yesterday did they announce restrictions to "Spain, including the Madrid region; four areas in Italy, including the northern region of Liguria; the Ticino region of southern Switzerland; and all of Iceland."
They expect people to put themselves under 2 weeks self-quarantine upon arrival, that's just not going to happen for most people realistically, and you can bet your ass most will still use public transportation that is packed with people.
fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount
Last edit: 18/03/2020 08:03
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Stroggoz   New Zealand. Mar 18 2020 08:39. Posts 5291
On March 18 2020 05:31 vasoline73 wrote:
Fisheye the virus is likely going to end up in the .06% fatality range. It's large (6X flu) but I would recommend that you start to relax. At this point governments across the western world are taking it very seriously. The average citizen has no choice but to follow stringent measures. We'll be alright man.
I guess what I'm trying to say is... the governments are panicking for you. Everyone is being forced to comply with panicked measures. We'll be alright man. You can take it easier now that others are stepping in to be responsible. Give it a few months and hang tight. Cheers.
the economic and political fallout will be worse than the virus itself imo, so there is a lot to be worried about. Every government in the world is relfexively looking to exploit this crisis somehow. It also presents an opportunity for leftists, (who will undoubtly become more popular), to push for the environmental policies that are seriously needed. The keynesian stimulus plans around the world are predictably not using this as an opportunity to green the economy, and in fact china is cutting back on environmental regulation to boost the economy
One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings
Last edit: 18/03/2020 08:42
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FiSheYe   Germany. Mar 18 2020 09:58. Posts 214
On March 18 2020 05:31 vasoline73 wrote:
Fisheye the virus is likely going to end up in the .06% fatality range. It's large (6X flu) but I would recommend that you start to relax. At this point governments across the western world are taking it very seriously. The average citizen has no choice but to follow stringent measures. We'll be alright man.
I guess what I'm trying to say is... the governments are panicking for you. Everyone is being forced to comply with panicked measures. We'll be alright man. You can take it easier now that others are stepping in to be responsible. Give it a few months and hang tight. Cheers.
Mate, I think you still didn't look into the data and understand what is happening. There is nobody that looked into it and came out with 6x or 10x flu, trust me on this. You didn't look into it hard enough, I can walk you through it or explain where you might misunderstand the data. For sure you are not living in Wuhan, Korea or Italy. But when it becomes apparent that you were wrong, your town is already fucked.
The next few days are the most critical at this point. I will relax when in a few days people in my city will be forced into their homes, until then every day counts.
Open your eyes and mind and try to see it objectively, rational. What is the risk right now, what is the reward, how long do I need to take these measures?
If in a few days things calm down, you can calm down and I will calm down. Until then you should take it for what it is, the worst crisis you have ever seen that hasn't fully happened yet.
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LemOn[5thF]   Czech Republic. Mar 18 2020 10:15. Posts 15163
On March 17 2020 18:48 Stroggoz wrote:
I guess this means the end of the eurozone. I don't see it surviving the virus
What makes you say that? It's certainly the biggest challenge after they've had to do with its prior biggest challenge (Brexit) but the EU is responding quite adequately right now, they've reinvested all the unspent funds into the healthcare systems of all EU nations for starters and closed off all border for foreigners. They've also NOT questioned individual states shutting down their borders completely, which I think is a very good thing ( wouldn't have been surprised if bureaucrats tried to argue differently even in times of crisis tbh)
this is a good explanation of what's going on. Perhaps i was a bit hyperbolic in that claim.
Oh by eurozone you mean countries that have Euro the currency?
Haven't heard that term used much we just say countries with Euro
There are countries in EU that don't have Euro and never had it like my country and it has obvious advantages in times like this as central bank has more tools to deal with specific situation of the country. And most of our population doesn't want Euro but strongly supports being in the EU
On the other hand shit economics WITH euro force the hands of the strong ones to bail them our like happened with Greece so I'm not sure they would leave it either
93% Sure!
Last edit: 18/03/2020 10:17
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LemOn[5thF]   Czech Republic. Mar 18 2020 10:23. Posts 15163
As to EU it doesn't make sense to leave it for anyone
Strong countries have more power
Weaker countries get subsidies
And everyone benefits from free trade
I think reform is needed and Brussels is getting way too bloated, bureaucratic and getting executive powers it clearly can't handle swiftly end there will hopefully be a push now to deal with this but nobody will be leaving on the continent unless they get some dumb short term populist movements.
UK is a really special case, it was always us and them, you'd say you are "travelling to Europe" etc. In the UK and in England there's a lot of nostalgia for the old Empire
I know a lot of Scottish people want independence and joining the EU and it's probably going to happen in the next couple decades
93% Sure!
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LemOn[5thF]   Czech Republic. Mar 18 2020 16:17. Posts 15163
Just in czech so here goes
2 young women spoke what happened when one of them got it. They live like 5km from my flat in my city
One of them galled her GP, told her she has symptoms, she told her to call emergency services line
-4.5 hours wait time, got through eventually
Told her if she wasn't in direct contact with someone from Italy or someone confirmed, they won't test her
- told her to call GP
- She called her GP, GP told her to come in
- her GP started mocking her for wearing a face mask said that it's useless, took a quick look at her
- told her to take paracethamol and go home, it'a flu, not need for quarantine. She felt relieved and a bit embarrassed for overreacting.
=> met her parents, went to buy food in a supermarket with them just in case
- it got worse she got 38-39 degree fever 6 days straight, unbearable headache and trouble breathing - she says the headache is the worst and has been crying all saturday from the pain
=> She assumed since it's not corona that she has bacterial infection and might need antibiotics
=> Went to emergency in a hospital. By Subway.
=> Doctor there started yelling at her and mocking her for coming in that she has Corona probably and infected people there
=> The emergency doctor changed into protective suit (DIDN'T Have it as default, they don't)
The girl felt guilty for sidelining her for 2 weeks +
=> did tests on her
=> next day called confirmed she has corona
She has a roommate (also in the video)
since she thought it's just a basic flu they went for a walk with a dog together etc. (COMMENT: I know, dumb => We just aren't used to this and this will hopefully change how people approach viruses... I catch something and have to stay home several times per year for one)
=> next day she felt sore throat/lungs a bit => assumed they were outside for a long time night before so she got a cold
2 days later the first girl asked her to go to the emergency (See the subway trip)
=> Then got the same symptoms, kept going worse
Hard to breathe, 38-39 fevers, hard headaches, teeth eyes hurt
Apparently it gets gradually worse, starts as normal sore throat and gets progressively worse every day with more symptoms.
Next day they CALLED THE ROOMMATE (2nd girl) who OBVIOUSLY 100% had it, told her they will not count her as a person with corona until she has official tests and they can GET TO HER IN ABOUT A WEEK to test her
=> She agreed, told them to move her down the list since she knows she has it anyways.
TREATMENT when they called her she's positive
-got told to use paracetamol
=got told to stay home, and to call an ambulance in case of suffocating or possibly dying, no earlier than that
- told them to stay brave
SECONDARY CASES
the roommate was in prolonged contact with her friends but they can't get tested yet because she officially doesn't count as a person with corona even though she 100% has it - you need to be in contact with someone to be tested.
Bottom line
Don't get Corona if you live in a country with universal healthcare.
93% Sure!
Last edit: 18/03/2020 16:37
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Santafairy   Korea (South). Mar 18 2020 16:41. Posts 2224
That was a gritty and fascinating anecdote and window into the reality of the virus in Europe until the last line tuned you into a complete imbecile hack
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen