The Coronavirus thread - Page 19

On March 13 2020 06:17 Baalim wrote: Iran is digging mass graves so big they can be seen from fucking space...

all we have to do now is to be careful and maintain good hygiene, boost our immune system to avoid this fucking Covid Virus. Hope It will disappear very soon.

On May 27 2020 04:56 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On May 26 2020 16:45 Spitfiree wrote:   On May 26 2020 02:24 Baalim wrote: You are confusing personal immunity to a virus with a the "heard immunity strategy" these aren't related at all, personal immunity to SARS-COV-2 is extremely likely, that doesn't make infecting everyone a good strat. I'm not suggesting we go all out and go for herd immunity, I'm simply assuming that if the immunity doesn't last long enough until the entire cycle is done, then the cycle will never be done and the virus will keep spreading infinitely until a vaccine is done The article i read about other immunity tests about human coronaviruses 3/4 gained immunity of at least 2 years (when they attempted re-infection), and 1/4 got reinfected but the virus was virtually asymptomatic and wasn't remotely as powerful as the 1st infection.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamh...o-covid-19-infection-may-fade-quickly

And this is why you can't make assumptions on COVID-19 based on other coronaviruses. Its a small excerpt but it's quite concerning. Good news is they did find a somewhat working treatment though for around 20% of the patients with dexamethasone

Also I'm sure you all already seen this, but asymptomatic people also experience lung damage.

Edit: Important to note that even though the antibodies disappear, the organism should still be responding faster and better if it gets infected again

damn if no one else will I'll just give myself some props for calling everything

worldwide deaths is at 1 million, not 100 million. Even the highest rank doomsday priests aren't that worried anymore

vanguard international ETF is already at an all time high. Now is a better time to sell I'd say especially if you're holding USA stocks which seem to be pretty detached from reality. The USA did suffer real damage and the stock market seems to have already forgotten about it.

Just literally giving away potential billions here with my expert meta-analysis of previous disasters you're welcome guys don't even mention it :D

On October 11 2020 11:54 Jelle wrote: damn if no one else will I'll just give myself some props for calling everything worldwide deaths is at 1 million, not 100 million. Even the highest rank doomsday priests aren't that worried anymore vanguard international ETF is already at an all time high. Now is a better time to sell I'd say especially if you're holding USA stocks which seem to be pretty detached from reality. The USA did suffer real damage and the stock market seems to have already forgotten about it. Just literally giving away potential billions here with my expert meta-analysis of previous disasters you're welcome guys don't even mention it :D

This pandemic has allowed me to get some amazing deals in Las Vegas during the past 4+ months.

I'm going to miss the cheap airfare when things go back to normal.

Hello, A new member !

good 4 u PuertiRican

Covid could be both real and a hoax.

On October 12 2020 10:19 captainhook wrote: Covid could be both real and a hoax.

I think Covid is real, but overblown.

As for USA, there were many deaths during the past 7 months that were ruled as Covid-related, even though many of those people didn't die due to Covid-related complications.

That whole thing about hospitals using various methods in order to get more money by using ventilators and saying someone has Covid when they don't really have it, is pretty sickening as well. This helped spike the amount of infected people.

Hopefully we get back to normal in early 2021.

On October 13 2020 00:23 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On October 12 2020 10:19 captainhook wrote: Covid could be both real and a hoax. I think Covid is real, but overblown. As for USA, there were many deaths during the past 7 months that were ruled as Covid-related, even though many of those people didn't die due to Covid-related complications. That whole thing about hospitals using various methods in order to get more money by using ventilators and saying someone has Covid when they don't really have it, is pretty sickening as well. This helped spike the amount of infected people. Hopefully we get back to normal in early 2021.

What a stupid take, just read the excess deaths for each month ffs.


"Only 1M have died" yeah after the biggest mitigation effort for a disease in fucking history, nearly 4 billion people were on simultenous lockdown at one point so we stopped the logarithmic growth, how this isn't obvious to poker players who deal with statistics graphs and that kind of info often is beyond me.

lol maybe everybody around you just seems stupid when you randomly hallucinate what they said

I can see the 'uh oh hospitals lie about covid diagnosis to get money' narrative is not only popular in shitholes in Eastern Europe but also the US.

The thing is, we are not prepared for pandemics and I don't think we ever will be. We're lucky is not an extremely deadly virus. That being said the logarithmic increase is continuing even after all the efforts everywhere around the world to prevent it and with China not reporting real data (considering they are around 1/6th of the Worlds population you could see how that matters)

Not all deaths should be treated equally. Here's a couple things I've heard that people should keep in mind: 1) The average age that people die of COVID is older than the average age that people die. 2) 40% of the deaths from COVID (here in the US) came from people living in nursing homes.

Regarding nursing homes - If you look up life expectancy of people that live in nursing homes, it's somewhere in the range of 2 years. 30%~ of the people that move to a nursing home die within the first 6 months. While it's certainly tragic that COVID has created a holocaust among this demographic, you have to realize that most of these people would be dead within 5 years regardless. In fact there should be fewer people dying in this demographic over the next few years because all of the people that were supposed to die next year or 2 years from now will have already been killed by COVID. I imagine that 10 years from now most of the people that COVID killed would have died regardless so the "excess death" will even out to nothing more than a rounding error. Only 3% of the deaths are of people aged <45 and the large majority are of people 70+. Unfortunately we can't live forever. Everyone needs to do their best to socially distance and wear masks, but the lockdowns of entire economies has been a stupid policy which is why the WHO just came out against it.

I agree, complete lockdowns are absolutely terrible policies. Making masks an absolute requirement in any space with a centralization of people e.g. public transport, stores, institutions, parks (for some reason those are not enforced in outdoor places as if the virus only spreads indoors) etc. should be sufficient - with massive financial sanctions to shitters that don't follow the restrictions. In a combination with sanitization measures for all of these places the curve's increase should be stopped by quite a bit.

There's evidence to suggest that transmission of the virus while outdoors is quite unlikely. I go on a lot of hikes and almost everyone is wearing masks for no reason. Thinking you're going to catch COVID from walking past someone outdoors for 1 second makes about as much sense as believing you're going to suffocate because all the oxygen molecules move away from your nose. If you can't socially distance while outdoors then certainly you should wear a mask but personally I wouldn't visit a park that was so crowded I couldn't stay away from other people.

On October 13 2020 23:31 blackjacki2 wrote: Not all deaths should be treated equally. Here's a couple things I've heard that people should keep in mind: 1) The average age that people die of COVID is older than the average age that people die. 2) 40% of the deaths from COVID (here in the US) came from people living in nursing homes. Regarding nursing homes - If you look up life expectancy of people that live in nursing homes, it's somewhere in the range of 2 years. 30%~ of the people that move to a nursing home die within the first 6 months. While it's certainly tragic that COVID has created a holocaust among this demographic, you have to realize that most of these people would be dead within 5 years regardless. In fact there should be fewer people dying in this demographic over the next few years because all of the people that were supposed to die next year or 2 years from now will have already been killed by COVID. I imagine that 10 years from now most of the people that COVID killed would have died regardless so the "excess death" will even out to nothing more than a rounding error. Only 3% of the deaths are of people aged <45 and the large majority are of people 70+. Unfortunately we can't live forever. Everyone needs to do their best to socially distance and wear masks, but the lockdowns of entire economies has been a stupid policy which is why the WHO just came out against it.

Ahh another player who doesn't understand probability and with a bonus "fuck old people" argument as bonus, great.


Lockdowns aren't neccesary if a country reacts properly like Taiwan, Sinapore, Korea, Japan did, if you fuck up and underreact then you need lockdowns if they can be shortish like in China, if double fuck up and can't even manage to lockdown then you require country-wide 6 month long lockdowns or you will be bulldozing millions of grandparents rotting corpses of the streets dumped in mass graves.

Its just another example of the state being incompetent and inefficient while dealing with any sort of problem, something anybody with half a brain should know by now.

On October 15 2020 01:21 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On October 13 2020 23:31 blackjacki2 wrote: Not all deaths should be treated equally. Here's a couple things I've heard that people should keep in mind: 1) The average age that people die of COVID is older than the average age that people die. 2) 40% of the deaths from COVID (here in the US) came from people living in nursing homes. Regarding nursing homes - If you look up life expectancy of people that live in nursing homes, it's somewhere in the range of 2 years. 30%~ of the people that move to a nursing home die within the first 6 months. While it's certainly tragic that COVID has created a holocaust among this demographic, you have to realize that most of these people would be dead within 5 years regardless. In fact there should be fewer people dying in this demographic over the next few years because all of the people that were supposed to die next year or 2 years from now will have already been killed by COVID. I imagine that 10 years from now most of the people that COVID killed would have died regardless so the "excess death" will even out to nothing more than a rounding error. Only 3% of the deaths are of people aged <45 and the large majority are of people 70+. Unfortunately we can't live forever. Everyone needs to do their best to socially distance and wear masks, but the lockdowns of entire economies has been a stupid policy which is why the WHO just came out against it. Ahh another player who doesn't understand probability and with a bonus "fuck old people" argument as bonus, great. Lockdowns aren't neccesary if a country reacts properly like Taiwan, Sinapore, Korea, Japan did, if you fuck up and underreact then you need lockdowns if they can be shortish like in China, if double fuck up and can't even manage to lockdown then you require country-wide 6 month long lockdowns or you will be bulldozing millions of grandparents rotting corpses of the streets dumped in mass graves. Its just another example of the state being incompetent and inefficient while dealing with any sort of problem, something anybody with half a brain should know by now.

What part of my post doesn't mesh with your understanding of probability?

The idea that any country would need to lockdown for 6 months is ludicrous. A 1 month lockdown, 2 at the most, should sufficiently bring down cases. As the WHO said, lockdowns should be used for reorganization and regrouping and essentially as a last resort. They should not be used as a primary method of containment and after 2 months of lockdown the active cases would be sufficiently low enough that to continue them further is just trying to contain the virus which is better done with masks and social distancing.

lol baal, I live in Japan and naming us as an argument against blackjack2 made me lol irl. It's the go-to example to support blackjack2's claims and refute yours. What about Japan's reaction to covid impressed you specifically?

also where did blackjack2 say that governments are competent and efficient at dealing with problems? Or were you just randomly throwing that out there?

I'm also curious what egregious probability error blackjack2 specifically made?


Finally, on the "fuck old people argument", is that a matter principle for you or do you draw the line somewhere? e.g. imagine some ridiculous extreme like OLDVID-99 which only kills people that are 99 years old and on average will live for a few more days. blackjack2 makes the "fuck old people" argument (your wording not his). Do you still dismiss it, or do you start to consider it?

On October 15 2020 03:00 blackjacki2 wrote: What part of my post doesn't mesh with your understanding of probability? The idea that any country would need to lockdown for 6 months is ludicrous. A 1 month lockdown, 2 at the most, should sufficiently bring down cases. As the WHO said, lockdowns should be used for reorganization and regrouping and essentially as a last resort. They should not be used as a primary method of containment and after 2 months of lockdown the active cases would be sufficiently low enough that to continue them further is just trying to contain the virus which is better done with masks and social distancing.

The fact that you mentioned that the avg age of COVID death is higher than the avg lifespan, as if I wen't on a senior killing rampage and if my average is 79yo then what I"m doing is somehow ok or less bad, you are either not quite grasping how meaningless that stats is or you have awful views on the value of the lives of elders.

I agree 6 month country-wide lockdown is crazy and its the result of underreacting in many instances of this pandemic, late closing borders, little testing, low and late usage of masks, no contact tracing, no localized lockdowns, soft lockdowns etc, the ironic part is that you bitch about these long lockdowns yet minimize the impact of using a mask, yes the "returns" of wearing a mask diminishes the lest risky your sorrounding is, but there is little to no downside to using it, why does that even bother you?.

On October 15 2020 05:41 Jelle wrote: lol baal, I live in Japan and naming us as an argument against blackjack2 made me lol irl. It's the go-to example to support blackjack2's claims and refute yours. What about Japan's reaction to covid impressed you specifically? also where did blackjack2 say that governments are competent and efficient at dealing with problems? Or were you just randomly throwing that out there? I'm also curious what egregious probability error blackjack2 specifically made? Finally, on the "fuck old people argument", is that a matter principle for you or do you draw the line somewhere? e.g. imagine some ridiculous extreme like OLDVID-99 which only kills people that are 99 years old and on average will live for a few more days. blackjack2 makes the "fuck old people" argument (your wording not his). Do you still dismiss it, or do you start to consider it?

Nothing impressive about Japan's response, Korea and Taiwan are what I'd consider the blueprints for a good response, Japans success was due to natural cultural social distancing, early widespread use of mask and closing borders, no country in the west did that, hence the results. Also this isnt due to your governments working better, its mostly due to the fact that the east of Asia has suffered many pandemic-scares (ergo the common use of face masks).

Are you asking me at what age does a life start to lose value? you realize this is an unanswerable trolley dilemma question right? My dad is in his late 60s and has some immune system problems and COVID would certanly kill him, so no, I dont think his life is less valuable and I don't want to spouse arguments that lead to a response that would cost the lives of millions of people like my dad.