I think China handled some of the measures well, but if it really originated from China then they are partly at fault that it could spread so wide and that the world wasn't informed correctly when scientist understood what was going on. Also the doctor finding out about it and trying to warn the world... just seems like a nice coincidence that he died at 31 years of age after being silenced before. There are worse conspiracies out there.
As mentioned to Baal via PM, my thread was taken down, I understand why it would seem good to have only one but I disagree in this case. Coronavirus issues and drama will stay with us for the next months and I want to have as many information and discussions as possible to be informed and prepared. Not only for me but mainly for people that are at a higher risk group or ppl that are not informed and spread it like wildfire. I actually posted it 3 separate times on reddit and 1 time on teamliquid and it was taken down for sensationalism (even tho I was just asking for numbers and projections). When there are scam postings or useless postings admins take their good while to act but when we are talking about a pandemic and peope think its a milder version of the flu.... Hey lets close these discussions, this is a poker / starcraft / reddit forum. Seems like totally misunderstanding what we are dealing with and why spreading MORE information is important (and not to over-dramatize, can save lives). Think about it for a second please
Last edit: 14/03/2020 13:19
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 14 2020 13:09. Posts 15163
Theres like 5 people here
we don't need two fucking threads chief :D
China was doing china
Trying to protect PR and sweep it under the rug - they couldn't have known it will be this severe I guess
And then they were way more effective in curbing the actual outbreak when they did admit it
Because dictatorships are better prepared for this
Concerning thing is shortages of respirators and face covers in general
In Prague police is around all the closed shops (just food , electronics and essentials are open ) to give info etc. but none have respirators
There's no chance for general public to get them
Where china would lock you up if you left the house without one
Keep in mind we are in the beginnings. How long will police men stand outside and work for the government until they realize, they are basically the front line meat shield. If it is true and some severe cases that don't die can have 30-40% loss of lung capacities (like with pneumonia), then there is gonna be a lot more worry for those that are not old and think they are invulnerable to it.
The behavior of people in Germany is crazy, when you go down the street the restaurants are still full. People standing 10 cm from each other talking about what a weird time it is and that their boss told them they should stay home for a bit. I am not the panicky type but I literally feel like in a movie right before the storm starts. In Italy some doctors have to choose between saving a 50 year old with 2 children or a grandma in her 80's. And of course the older lady has to die, because they cannot save enough lives as the system is failing over there. I think so far Italy has like a 7% fatality rate when infected and we unaware of how many people actually have it due to the lack of testing and infrastructure. If someone is dying TODAY, they were likely infected 2-3 weeks ago and could have spread it to many people (2-3 on average). The issue is not that 3, 4, 5, 10% of people infected die, the problem is if the measures are not taken early, exponential growth means that the world population is gonna get infected QUICKLY and too many people at the same time, so hospitals cannot help the severe cases and then more people die. There are EASY ways to fix the spread but governments are taking too much time to act out of fear of panics and financial downturns.
Global growth rate is currently estimated to be 1.31 today. Bare in mind that from what I have seen at a growth rate of 1.15 (not gonna stay there but lets assume), it will reach 100 Million people in a matter of weeks
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 14 2020 13:46. Posts 15163
Well Czech republic closed borders
and closed all shops but utilities and food etc. pubs casinos...
Santafairy Korea (South). Mar 14 2020 18:30. Posts 2226
in fisheye's defense it's much better to have felt like you overreacted if it causes a better result, than to underreact and carry on as normal and exacerbate the problem
It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen
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bigredhoss Cook Islands. Mar 14 2020 19:03. Posts 8648
On March 14 2020 12:30 FiSheYe wrote:
I am not the panicky type but I literally feel like in a movie right before the storm starts.
please don't get offended by this but you totally are a panicky type lol
Not sure if this is in reaction to his posts here or due to previous interactions you've had with him, but his analysis seems pretty legitimate to me and his concerns are definitely valid. Of course a lot can change when you tweak a variable in an exponential equation, but the scenario he's afraid of certainly seems to be on the table based on all the data.
On March 14 2020 17:30 Santafairy wrote:
in fisheye's defense it's much better to have felt like you overreacted if it causes a better result, than to underreact and carry on as normal and exacerbate the problem
Well appreciated but it is clearly logically smarter to be overreacting, when it saves lives, than under-react when you possibly can be part of the issue and spread it by being too arrogant about the situation. I think the latter is true for a lot of global leaders and most of the population. It is a mixture of information asymmetry and Cognitive dissonance.
Where people are super high on 5g world order vaccine stuff and believe that there are micro chips in the milk and so forth but when there is a killer virus knocking on your door, that you cannot see and is highly infectious, then they relax and call it a flu.
Don't see the benefit of not taking this serious, as you might have a lot of self-hatred if it turns sour and the other way around worse case you look like a fool, which I am more than willing to be at this point and death toll.
Keep in mind this is the beginning of it (10weeks) and there are almost twice as many people dead as during 9/11. Without riots, food shortages, global financial meltdowns and country wide quarantines. Just ask yourself what made Wuhan so special and why does China take such harsh measures? To protect their citizens? It is a dictatorship, they did it because it was necessary and Wuhan could be anywhere if not taken serious. You think the USA say it is a global emergency because they want to (TRUMP? after he said multiple times it is not that bad?) Why are all the conspiracy people thinking now the governments are overplaying it? What is their benefit? To give us vaccines in 2 years? No, to save lives because it is worse than we are being told, that is why. The risk reward of not taking this serious seems beyond me, at least become filthy rich by understanding what is happening in the markets then. Otherwise you are just missing your health and wealth opportunities right now
On March 14 2020 12:30 FiSheYe wrote:
I am not the panicky type but I literally feel like in a movie right before the storm starts.
please don't get offended by this but you totally are a panicky type lol
Not sure if this is in reaction to his posts here or due to previous interactions you've had with him, but his analysis seems pretty legitimate to me and his concerns are definitely valid. Of course a lot can change when you tweak a variable in an exponential equation, but the scenario he's afraid of certainly seems to be on the table based on all the data.
Agreed. Also he doesn't know me, I am the non drama type that usually is very relaxed and in the last 35 years I only talked about the financial crisis once (2008). I don't ring the bells unless it is time to. Doesn't mean I am right but there are clearly scenarios where this can go VERY, VERY wrong. And people spreading it and not staying home and talking about the flu or that everyone gets it anyways are part of the problem and kill others by increasing the growth rate. The worst part is they will not even understand it and then blame others later on for all the misinformation and that they weren't warned properly. That stuff makes me angry, especially when all they need to do is listen and think. If you are very stupid then ok, but if you are just ignorant to the numbers and experts then we have a problem here
Btw. 1 week ago I told people to stay cool and that the flu kills many more people each year and that SARS and MERS weren't that dangerous and the media is just blowing it out of proportion... Until a friend who is super rational told me to be careful and stay safe and that things will get really ugly, who is doing all the research and pretty much a free thinker. I looked closer into it and saw who is alarming the population. People like Nassim Taleb (Black Swan, Anti-fragility) and very rational investor types that are usually calling Bullshit on these things. THEY are the ones in full panic mode, the ones that are staying cool is your average Joe who wants to go to his bar and have a few beers. That is the worrying part, the majority is still in business as usual mode because we are a few weeks behind China and Italy/Iran. When you realize it you might already have spread it to your parents and grand parents. I hope they are understanding when you tell them it is just a flu and they have severe symptoms.
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 14 2020 20:24. Posts 15163
On March 14 2020 17:30 Santafairy wrote:
in fisheye's defense it's much better to have felt like you overreacted if it causes a better result, than to underreact and carry on as normal and exacerbate the problem
Well appreciated but it is clearly logically smarter to be overreacting, when it saves lives, than under-react when you possibly can be part of the issue and spread it by being too arrogant about the situation. I think the latter is true for a lot of global leaders and most of the population. It is a mixture of information asymmetry and Cognitive dissonance.
Where people are super high on 5g world order vaccine stuff and believe that there are micro chips in the milk and so forth but when there is a killer virus knocking on your door, that you cannot see and is highly infectious, then they relax and call it a flu.
Don't see the benefit of not taking this serious, as you might have a lot of self-hatred if it turns sour and the other way around worse case you look like a fool, which I am more than willing to be at this point and death toll.
Keep in mind this is the beginning of it (10weeks) and there are almost twice as many people dead as during 9/11. Without riots, food shortages, global financial meltdowns and country wide quarantines. Just ask yourself what made Wuhan so special and why does China take such harsh measures? To protect their citizens? It is a dictatorship, they did it because it was necessary and Wuhan could be anywhere if not taken serious. You think the USA say it is a global emergency because they want to (TRUMP? after he said multiple times it is not that bad?) Why are all the conspiracy people thinking now the governments are overplaying it? What is their benefit? To give us vaccines in 2 years? No, to save lives because it is worse than we are being told, that is why. The risk reward of not taking this serious seems beyond me, at least become filthy rich by understanding what is happening in the markets then. Otherwise you are just missing your health and wealth opportunities right now
One thing is that stress weakens immune systems and actually adds to spreading of the disease right?
You need to strike some sort of balance as a politician
Where you use legislation and enforce things that combat the spread ASAP
Change people's habits
While avoiding panic
People are irresponsible and meet in pubs? They closed them at 8pm
They just got drunk earlier? Closed all pubs and restaurants altogether
But now those people went to shopping malls...
Government closed all of them but food too
I think it was actually all pre-planned and they did this stuff in waves
5000k people events banned => 100 people => 30 people
Same with borders
same with phasing out pubs etc. every other day they tighten restrictions instead of drastic one off change, to avoid panic and at least somewhat manage stress levels
Respirators need to be used
But countries have respirator shortages
And need them for hospital
Are you going to say people have to wear respirators? No, because you cause panic
In fact my country BANNED sale of respirators to general public for that reason
My country just banned everything in the same day. If you're capable of working from home you should and your employer can't do shit about it.
Malls closed
Restaurants closed
Every public place apart from supermarkets, drug stores, banks and gas stations is closed
Police is controlling supermarkets entry points
Small to mid businesses will really suffer. I can't imagine the aftermath of this virus but it will be tough
Some bitch with a cafe in the city center of a small town left her coffee opened cause she's the wife of the mayor apparently, hope they'll both get wrecked now.
Let's see if it holds the exponential growth... Started with 4 cases 4 days ago, 41 cases today with an elderly couple dead (wife died first, the husband died next day that's a real feelsbadman )
Last edit: 14/03/2020 20:39
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Mar 14 2020 20:42. Posts 15163
I mean big issue is that the announcements make people flock to supermarkets when they make these big steps
My country's gradual steps (a few days apart only tho) probably helped
But you basically force people to mass trying to get food... and they still do every time restrictions get tightened.
Wuhan had mandatory face masks and temperature checks if you wanted to get anywhere, but it's going to be hard to enforce in western countries
Where even quarantined northern italy with all it's issues has well stocked shops apparently
Just 1 person can go from a household, you fill a form why you are outside
and there is mandatory distance for people
Yeah taking this lightly is definitely worse than overreacting I agree with that for sure. I'm sure that's what the who and politicians are doing sending out messages like that. And you make a lot of good points btw, but I think you're being very creative at finding all the negatives and not considering any positives
I think for society a lot of good can come from this
- we might suddenly be wiling to spend more resources preparing for a stronger viral outbreak in the future
- maybe companies will find out that working remote can really work. That would be a huge boon to society imo
- people's hygiene may improve
- it might be a chance for AI tech to shine as it really is useful in a research setting like looking for a vaccine
- Same with VR as it can enable remote work or having large gatherings without the risks.
- a lot of airfare is just people in suits going to another country to basically watch the company video. By the numbers it's "terrible for the economy" when we do less ritualistic stuff like that but in the long run I think we're better off just doing stuff that makes some sense
- maybe some people will actually take the opportunity to study inside while they can't get plastered in a bar
- There are also a lot of countries where nothing significant is going wrong. You keep seeing the same graph online with like 6-7 countries listed, all of which were early victims so they had less data to be prepared.
the main reason why I think media and politicians are overblowing (not underrepping as you think) is because that's what happened with literally every disaster before this. Sensationalism is a real thing in the media and it's hard for me to take them all that seriously when they say that the world is about to end every single time we face any real adversity. Just google for newspaper headlines of previous disasters (whether they were viruses or something else) and you find a ton of really funny stuff.
In the who video you linked, a lot fo the stuff the who statistician says is actually really reasonable. He uses a lot of words like "could" and "in the worst case" and "if we don't act". There are also a lot of positive elements to his message, like how dramatic the improvements are when you take some simple countermeasures. But then some newspaper is gonna take that and make the headlines "EXPONENTIAL GRAPH = 100 MILLION DEATHS" and I feel many people don't look past that
I can get on board with the human drama of this (even one person dying is always a drama) but especially when you start talking about finance, please don't throw your wonderful stocks away because the tv is saying 24/7 that the world is on fire. They always say that society is about to collapse every time and so far they have been correct 0% of the time. I definitely think this is a good time to buy equities although I wouldn't be too aggressive either because you might get even better discounts later. Society is not going to break down and great businesses are not going to collapse. You might have to wait for years but stocks will reach all time highs like always. I'm not a big fan of bitcoin but if you believe in it you shouldn't change your mind because of coronavirus.
On March 14 2020 20:11 Jelle wrote:
Yeah taking this lightly is definitely worse than overreacting I agree with that for sure. I'm sure that's what the who and politicians are doing sending out messages like that. And you make a lot of good points btw, but I think you're being very creative at finding all the negatives and not considering any positives
I think for society a lot of good can come from this
- we might suddenly be wiling to spend more resources preparing for a stronger viral outbreak in the future
- maybe companies will find out that working remote can really work. That would be a huge boon to society imo
- people's hygiene may improve
- it might be a chance for AI tech to shine as it really is useful in a research setting like looking for a vaccine
- Same with VR as it can enable remote work or having large gatherings without the risks.
- a lot of airfare is just people in suits going to another country to basically watch the company video. By the numbers it's "terrible for the economy" when we do less ritualistic stuff like that but in the long run I think we're better off just doing stuff that makes some sense
- maybe some people will actually take the opportunity to study inside while they can't get plastered in a bar
- There are also a lot of countries where nothing significant is going wrong. You keep seeing the same graph online with like 6-7 countries listed, all of which were early victims so they had less data to be prepared.
the main reason why I think media and politicians are overblowing (not underrepping as you think) is because that's what happened with literally every disaster before this. Sensationalism is a real thing in the media and it's hard for me to take them all that seriously when they say that the world is about to end every single time we face any real adversity. Just google for newspaper headlines of previous disasters (whether they were viruses or something else) and you find a ton of really funny stuff.
In the who video you linked, a lot fo the stuff the who statistician says is actually really reasonable. He uses a lot of words like "could" and "in the worst case" and "if we don't act". There are also a lot of positive elements to his message, like how dramatic the improvements are when you take some simple countermeasures. But then some newspaper is gonna take that and make the headlines "EXPONENTIAL GRAPH = 100 MILLION DEATHS" and I feel many people don't look past that
I can get on board with the human drama of this (even one person dying is always a drama) but especially when you start talking about finance, please don't throw your wonderful stocks away because the tv is saying 24/7 that the world is on fire. They always say that society is about to collapse every time and so far they have been correct 0% of the time. I definitely think this is a good time to buy equities although I wouldn't be too aggressive either because you might get even better discounts later. Society is not going to break down and great businesses are not going to collapse. You might have to wait for years but stocks will reach all time highs like always. I'm not a big fan of bitcoin but if you believe in it you shouldn't change your mind because of coronavirus.
Jelle thank you for trying to have a good conversation here, my only purpose is the pursuit of truth (whatever it might be) and to alarm and help others to see through this mess. As I said one week ago I wasn't in panic mode. The video I linked is just some math guy that did calculations, has nothing to do with WHO, they are just some advertisement as far as I understand (also the WHO seems unable to communicate that way, just listen to their guys, they seem rather moronic). I don't mind your list of things that could improve afterwards but that was never the point. I am sure if all humans die nature will prosper like never before, but that doesn't mean I am positive if it would happen. I mainly post here to get good counter arguments for why this is not the worst crisis of my life-time and wherever I post and whoever I talk to, I get more worried not less. I am a very positive person and I am sure I will cope with the fact that millions can possibly die and I already forgive my friends for not listening now and in case I have to be there for them and give them condolences for their loved ones in a few months... But right now I just feel an immense burden and opportunity to speak out and tell my loved ones to be afraid and take precautions and not take it lightly. In some cases I have to have the same argument a couple times until it sinks in and there is still a good chance I am wrong about this all, but man it looks bad. Really bad and when you look deeply into the numbers this has all the signs of BIG TROUBLE written all over it. Keep in mind the Spanish Flu took 2-3 years to get those huge death numbers and we are in week 10 of the ongoing of the outbreak. If it would be a movie, this would be after the first song when they introduce actors and the first "sign" of doomsday appears. It hasn't even begun
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hiems United States. Mar 14 2020 22:10. Posts 2979
On March 14 2020 01:09 hiems wrote:
Anyome know general time line of how long it takes from being symptomatic -->> death for an average patient who does end up dying?
It probably varies widely since the hospitalizatio and ICU required times are very long
(talking mainly about USA)
I have been assuming that the number of cases in the US is much higher than reported because of the lack of availability for testing and the difficulty in being approved for the test. However, what I dont understand is that the number of reported DEATHS from coronavirus are still in proportion to the number of cases and still very low.
For example according to this stat, confirmed cases = 2,499. I don't think it's a stretch to think actual cases are much higher than that (say~20,000), but number of reported deaths =55 is very much in line with the cases number.
I don't think you can really sneak "deaths" behind people. I.e I don't think there are cases where X person fails to receive coronavirus test, DIES, and therefore is not classified as a coronavirus death because he/she has not been diagnosed via testing.
The only reasonable explanation is what then? Is this being caused by the lag time between catching the virus//being symptomatic to being sick enough to die? What else can it be? Am I just wrong to think that the actual number of cases is much higher than 2500? I really don't get it. Any ideas?
I beat Loco!!! [img]https://i.imgur.com/wkwWj2d.png[/img]
