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UFC 207: Nunes vs Rousey

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PuertoRican   United States. Dec 19 2016 08:13. Posts 10452

Date: Friday, December 30th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 01:30 LP.net / 4:30pm PST / 7:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 2:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 4:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (PPV)

Amanda Nunes (13-4) vs. Ronda Rousey (12-1) (Women's Bantamweight Championship)
Dominick Cruz (22-1) vs. Cody Garbrandt (10-0) (Bantamweight Championship)
T.J. Dillashaw (13-3) vs. John Lineker (29-7) (Bantamweight)
Dong Hyun Kim (21-3-1) vs. Tarec Saffiedine (16-5) (Welterweight)
Louis Smolka (11-2) vs. Ray Borg (9-2) (Flyweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Johny Hendricks (17-5) vs. Neil Magny (18-5) (Welterweight)
Antonio Carlos Junior (6-2) vs. Marvin Vettori (11-2) (Middleweight)
Mike Pyle (27-12-1) vs. Alex Garcia (13-3) (Welterweight)
Brandon Thatch (11-4) vs. Niko Price (8-0) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Tim Means (26-7-1) vs. Alex Oliveira (15-4-1) (Welterweight)

Other

- Johny Hendricks stated that he will retire from MMA if he loses to Neil Magny. (It's not a knock on Magny, more so that Hendricks' career is basically done and he knows if he can't win this fight, he should quit -- he is 1-3 in his last 4 fights, and that one win was him taking Matt Brown down 9 times and winning by decision and not doing much damage at all).
- Matt Brown was expected to face former Strikeforce Welterweight Champion Tarec Saffiedine at the event. However, Brown was pulled from the fight on November 11 in favor of a match-up with former UFC Lightweight Championship challenger Donald Cerrone three weeks earlier at UFC 206. Brown was replaced by Dong Hyun Kim on November 16.
- Maryna Moroz was very briefly linked to a fight with Jessica Andrade at the event. On December 7 Moroz was replaced by Invicta FC Strawweight Champion Angela Hill. Hill was then ruled out of fighting at UFC 207 because of a rule in the UFC's anti-doping policy with USADA. Subsequently, promotion officials have not determined whether or not they would attempt to find a replacement to face Andrade, or reschedule her for another event.
- Sabah Homasi was linked to a fight with Brandon Thatch at the event. However, Homasi pulled out due to injury and was replaced by promotional newcomer Niko Price on December 12.
- A potential heavyweight title eliminator bout between former UFC Heavyweight Champions Fabrício Werdum and Cain Velasquez was expected to take place on the card. The pairing met previously in June 2015 at UFC 188, with then interim champion Werdum unifying the title, as he won the fight via submission in the third round. However the Nevada State Athletic Commission, after analyzing physical examinations and interviews, deemed Velasquez unfit to compete and pulled him from the event on December 24. The bout was eventually scrapped.

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Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 29/12/2016 00:28

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 19 2016 08:15. Posts 10452

First impression of the match-ups:

• Nunes vs. Rousey (dunno)
• Cruz vs. Garbrandt (dunno)
• Werdum vs. Velasquez (dunno)
• Dillashaw > Lineker
• Magny > Hendricks
• Kim > Saffiedine
• Garcia > Pyle
• Smolka > Borg
• Oliveira > Means
• Vettori > Junior
• Thatch vs. Price (dunno)

Rekrul is a newb 

gebbstet   Sweden. Dec 19 2016 08:23. Posts 390

So many even fights, last time I checked there was not a single underdog with more then +200 odds


PuertoRican   United States. Dec 19 2016 08:40. Posts 10452





Rekrul is a newb 

Baalim   Mexico. Dec 19 2016 09:12. Posts 31195

The fact that Holm dismantled Rousey is making people forget that the female division is crap and Rousey would trample anyone who isnt Holly or Cyborg, nothing has changed, Amanda is no exception.

Ronda will find the clinch and submit her, I dont think this fight goes past the 2nd round.

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

alejandicto   . Dec 19 2016 13:07. Posts 633

I am going big on Ronda, Cruz, Velasquez and TJ. I like a lot the odds on those.

People are saying that Ronda will lose because how she was affected about her loss and she will fight with emotions. But Ronda always fight with emotions, she is maybe the only one that is truly mad with her opponents before (and after) a fight, like with Miesha and Correia.

About Cruz and TJ, those two are on another level in the division.

I think Velasquez will KO Werdum, the only reason Werdum won the first fight was because they fought in Mexico.

 Last edit: 19/12/2016 15:03

alejandicto   . Dec 19 2016 13:10. Posts 633

Current odds:



Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Dec 19 2016 16:09. Posts 7699

UFC s doing everything they can to put Ronda at the top for as long as possible, its up to her now. Holme s gonna get the title in the new woman division


Minsk   Belarus. Dec 19 2016 21:06. Posts 1479

Rousey > Nunes

A coward dies a thousand deaths. A soldier dies but once. 

soberstone   United States. Dec 19 2016 22:27. Posts 2641

The only thing I'm sure of with rousey vs Nunez is an early finish. I see no reason to bet anything other than "fight does not start round 3". How can anyone know how bad rousey really is. There are so many unknowns and this is the type of fight that can look completely differently if you run it back 10 times just depending on who lands first, etc.

Cruz over Cody with a Cody early finish prop for a hedge seems standard, def feel great about the price on Cruz, garbrandt has shown me nothing to think he deserves to be a modest underdog - 2 impressive kos, 1 over mitzugaki, proves almost nothing. Watch his fight vs the Mexican guy from tuf - still plenty of holes in his striking. Cruz is going to most likely play games with him unless he gets caught early or Cody happens to be insanely good.

Also big on Cain - the Mexico fight was all about werdum fighting the best fight of his career and being used to Mexico. He's gonna get murked this time.

I personally think the Tj vs linekar fight could be close, but still no reason to go against Tj who is obviously a much better fighter, just sorta tough to be that confident against linekars chin and power in a 3 round fight


soberstone   United States. Dec 19 2016 22:30. Posts 2641

I also like means and Borg. Want to pick magny over Hendricks but without getting any underdog value it just seems crazy.


traxamillion   United States. Dec 20 2016 01:57. Posts 10239

is it just me or do they make nunes look as bad as possible in that headline poster pick in the OP


PuertoRican   United States. Dec 20 2016 03:19. Posts 10452


  On December 20 2016 00:57 traxamillion wrote:
is it just me or do they make nunes look as bad as possible in that headline poster pick in the OP


That's the first thing I said to myself.

I mean, she isn't a beautiful woman or anything, but she has never looked as bad as they make her look in that poster.

When Nunes actually tries to look feminine, she is actually decent looking. Although, since she's the "man" in her relationship, it's rare she actually tries to look feminine.

Rekrul is a newb 

Baalim   Mexico. Dec 20 2016 04:59. Posts 31195


  On December 19 2016 21:27 soberstone wrote:
The only thing I'm sure of with rousey vs Nunez is an early finish. I see no reason to bet anything other than "fight does not start round 3".



I disagree, Nunes sure is a powerful striker but I dont think she is going to make the mistake other women did in the past and trying to KO Ronda early on, she will try to circle and keep moving and Ronda is quite durable and had a big time to recover from that KO.

So I think it all depends in Nunes submission defense and I have no idea how good she is, she lost to GnP before but Ronda doesnt do much damage from top position so I think you are too certain of an aspect of Nunes we dont really know much about.

It wouldnt surprise me that mucht if this went to the 3rd round with an exhausted Nunes drawing dead if her defense is good.


Also Cain looked great in his last fight and Werdum didnt, and its easy to attribute Cains loss to Mexicos height but it wasnt just that he gassed early, he really got dismantled by Werdum in all aspects, I am not confident in Cain beating Werdum

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

alejandicto   . Dec 20 2016 05:51. Posts 633


  On December 20 2016 02:19 PuertoRican wrote:
Show nested quote +


That's the first thing I said to myself.

I mean, she isn't a beautiful woman or anything, but she has never looked as bad as they make her look in that poster.

When Nunes actually tries to look feminine, she is actually decent looking. Although, since she's the "man" in her relationship, it's rare she actually tries to look feminine.


They are trying to make ronda look as good as possible.

 Last edit: 20/12/2016 05:53

soberstone   United States. Dec 21 2016 02:08. Posts 2641


  On December 20 2016 03:59 Baalim wrote:
Show nested quote +



I disagree, Nunes sure is a powerful striker but I dont think she is going to make the mistake other women did in the past and trying to KO Ronda early on, she will try to circle and keep moving and Ronda is quite durable and had a big time to recover from that KO.

So I think it all depends in Nunes submission defense and I have no idea how good she is, she lost to GnP before but Ronda doesnt do much damage from top position so I think you are too certain of an aspect of Nunes we dont really know much about.

It wouldnt surprise me that mucht if this went to the 3rd round with an exhausted Nunes drawing dead if her defense is good.


Also Cain looked great in his last fight and Werdum didnt, and its easy to attribute Cains loss to Mexicos height but it wasnt just that he gassed early, he really got dismantled by Werdum in all aspects, I am not confident in Cain beating Werdum


Fair arguments, I just disagree.

I think there's little chance Nunes will try circling and picking Ronda apart the way Holm did for more than a minute or two, she'll gas out trying to do that, her footwork isnt good enough and Ronda comes so aggressively, she'll engage before long. Than its two offensive dyanamos going full steam, one with horrible striking defense whos fucked on the feet but still 1 punch KO threat vs a powerhouse striker with a horrible gas tank who's fucked on the bottom if gets taken down.

I could see it going longer only if Ronda tries to completely change who she is, which with the emotion of the fight I doubt is even possible, and with her lack of actual technique I doubt would be beneficial. She probably knows that too. I agree Nunes will try and stay on the outside, but she won't be able to - but she can def still win.

As for Cain v Werdum, Cain was winning for 4 minutes, I suggest a re-watch. He just didn't have anything behind his shots after a couple minutes and Werdum got more and more dangerous as the fight went on. The trajectory and fight as a whole should look completely different IMO, if this Werdum can still even eat those early shots. It took all of Cains energy to bully him for those minutes he was winning, I think it will be like a knife through butter this time.

Cain is still probably the best HW on earth. I can't give more credence to 1 fight where the air clearly affected most people over his more recent fight + the rest of his career where he's never slowed down for a moment.



 Last edit: 21/12/2016 03:10

soberstone   United States. Dec 21 2016 03:27. Posts 2641

Actually don't think I'm on Magny here. Hendricks didn't look as bad as I'd remembered vs Gastelum (looked shook from the Wonderboy Ko still in rd 1, then kinda came out of it) and Magney has always been so hittable.

Might be on Hendricks, we'll see @ weigh-ins.


PuertoRican   United States. Dec 22 2016 00:14. Posts 10452



Brett Okamoto writes:


Amazing, considering the fact it's currently difficult for Velasquez to stand upright any longer than 10 minutes due to pain in his lower body.

Velasquez, 34, is experiencing pain in his right leg, due to pressure on his sciatic nerve caused by bone spurs. Earlier this year, pain in his left leg forced him out of a scheduled title fight at UFC 196.

"It's an achy pain that goes down your leg and it gets to a point where if you're standing for 10 minutes, you have to sit down," Velasquez told ESPN.com. "If you're going out for a while, a half-hour, you know it's going to be pretty painful. You have to sit down and take the compression off your back.

The option of pulling out of yet another fight (something Velasquez has been forced to do multiple times) was discussed, but ultimately he and his team found a different solution: Cannabidiol (CBD).

"It's the only thing that allows me to still train, and I'm not taking a harmful pain killer into my body that I'll later become addicted to," Velasquez said.

CBD is not a banned substance under the UFC's anti-doping program during out-of-competition testing. Velasquez plans to discontinue use at least one week prior to the fight, in order to stay in compliance with the program. He also plans on receiving a cortisone shot to help with any pain.

The in-competition window is six hours prior to weigh-ins through six hours after the fight.

"As far as preparation, I've done everything," Velasquez said. "I've sparred, wrestled. I'm not missing workouts at all. I've done my conditioning -- everything. I feel great going into this.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 22/12/2016 01:07

Montrachet   Canada. Dec 22 2016 02:13. Posts 91

I don't think that mentality of more is more will ever go away in MMA. Training 7/7 is just bad for you and AKA fighters are showing it with their pullout %. They need to change something in the way of doing things.


northsails   Bulgaria. Dec 22 2016 10:28. Posts 407

Too many question marks on Nunes - Rousey for me. At first I thought there is big value on Amanda opener, but now I am not so sure and odds also have become a lot closer. She can for sure crack Ronda early and finish her, but also can get armbarred and also gas out and lose the fight pretty easy. U1.5 is obv good to play but the current price that I am seeing at -220 is pretty shit, imo.

Anybody that bets at Cain Velasquez on this odds for me is insane. There is big emphasis on the altitude for the 1st fight, but lets be realistic - Werdum was doing very well even in the first round. He is superior in the clinch and wizard of his back so that negates Cain's strongest feats - his wrestling/gnp and his dirty boxing/pressure against the fence. Add to that the information about Velasquez injuries, I think there is pretty clear value on Werdum in this fight.

Cruz will school Garbrandt - I like his line here a lot.

TJ and Lineker should be really fun fight. Usually TJ should take this by being more technical and superior in most facets of the game, but he can easily be lured into brawling and also Lineker excels in this, so he is very live dog in this fight. Odds should be closer, imo.


 
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