So im running 44 buy-ins below equity, and i dont even feel ive been that unlucky there, but i usually get coolered at least twice as much as sucked out on, i can honestly say that if i ran neutral i probably should be 120 buy-ins over what i have now at 1knl, all my plans on investing in small businesses and buying an STI are all gone now, lol some people wont even ever get it like Fayth just doesnt believe me (an all the other HSNL regs) that nanonoko just runs like the sun, and he is probably top 1% in the bell curve of luck and only the few of us who are down on the other side of the curve will understand it.
On the bright side im really close to be named Online Pro, im just waiting the final call if i also lose this by some reason its gong to be really hard to take.
On December 03 2010 21:10 Stygg wrote:
sooner or later, pretty much everyone will run worse than they perhaps thought was possible. thats a cliche nowadays, but only cause it's true.
even though I have *definitely* gone through this, I have no good advice to give you.. just stay sane. hope you've been banking along the way.. gl
This is actuall not true, the distribution of lucks a bell graph, most people are in the middle with average luck, some are nanonokos on the top 1% of blessed ones and others in the 1% cursed ones.
not everybody will run the same, while repetition makes this bell curve more acute theres still going to be that top 1% and bottom 1% and the difference between those 2 is overwhelming.
On December 03 2010 21:25 Stygg wrote:
lol how is that refuting what i said?
well not really but "everybody will run worse than they thought they could run" is a meaningless satement, nanonoko probalby thinks that loosing AK vs JJ is impossible, so if he loses it he made your statement true but it means absolutely nothing.
it means something
even if your bell curve thingy is true, even someone in the middle of it will eventually possibly run worse than they thought they could.
my statement means just that; it's possible to run worse than what I think most people think, no more no less.
On December 03 2010 21:22 byrnesam wrote:
Raszi and Baal both in Team Pokerstars
for a minute i wished there was a "like this" button life facebook for this post hahahaha
dcsscd hijo de pinos
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Carthac United States. Dec 03 2010 22:49. Posts 1343
Baal don't you think Nano would be beyond the realm of lucky if the way he performed was due to him coming out on the positive side of variance every time?
BTW, congratulations if you make online pro. That would be so awesome to have 2 online pros from LP. Well, 2 that I know of at least
On December 03 2010 21:49 Carthac wrote:
Baal don't you think Nano would be beyond the realm of lucky if the way he performed was due to him coming out on the positive side of variance every time?
BTW, congratulations if you make online pro. That would be so awesome to have 2 online pros from LP. Well, 2 that I know of at least
who is the other online pro? Raszi, Khan and Elky are TEAM pro.
Well nano obv doesnt win every single hand he is just the luckiest player ive seen.
Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online
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DooMeR United States. Dec 03 2010 23:03. Posts 8546
i beat nanonoko one time when i got TT AI PF bvb and he had JJ. true story
confirmed run good the rest of the times though
I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance, by running away from the scene of an accident.
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PanoRaMa United States. Dec 03 2010 23:17. Posts 1655
I never played much with nano at 6m, maybe under a thousand hands or so. I can only remember me winning one hand off of him and I don't even think it was for stacks. He's won many off of me though and I am quite certain this isn't just a case of selective memory. I talk to lots of respected Stars ms/hsnl players too and they all corroborate the same sentiments about nano. I def. agree with him being on the statistical outlier for just overall run good luck in the form of pf ai ev, cooler situations, spots where you 2 outer yourself, etc. etc. it's simply amazing to think how much different poker would be in your eyes if you had this sort of sun run, but that's just me dreaming
Grats on the online pro thing. Do you feel like a lot of it was because you're prob the best player in Mexico (i.e. more of a region-based thing)? Or do you have tourney scores/stars exec connections as well?
http://panorama.liquidpoker.net
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Maynard! United States. Dec 03 2010 23:17. Posts 4453
Ya I remember you were a complete anti EV graph poster.... You finally ran bad once in your poker career eh? A good # of pros we see on PTR who appear to be good are likely just top 0.1% luck boxes. It HAS to happen to someone.
On December 03 2010 22:17 PanoRaMa wrote:
I never played much with nano at 6m, maybe under a thousand hands or so. I can only remember me winning one hand off of him and I don't even think it was for stacks. He's won many off of me though and I am quite certain this isn't just a case of selective memory. I talk to lots of respected Stars ms/hsnl players too and they all corroborate the same sentiments about nano. I def. agree with him being on the statistical outlier for just overall run good luck in the form of pf ai ev, cooler situations, spots where you 2 outer yourself, etc. etc. it's simply amazing to think how much different poker would be in your eyes if you had this sort of sun run, but that's just me dreaming
Grats on the online pro thing. Do you feel like a lot of it was because you're prob the best player in Mexico (i.e. more of a region-based thing)? Or do you have tourney scores/stars exec connections as well?
yes its probably due to regional appeal, maybe being admin of the latin american site or because i race cars, but mostly due to being mexican i guess, much better players arent sponsored so there is no other conclusion.
On December 03 2010 22:17 Maynard! wrote:
Ya I remember you were a complete anti EV graph poster.... You finally ran bad once in your poker career eh? A good # of pros we see on PTR who appear to be good are likely just top 0.1% luck boxes. It HAS to happen to someone.
are you crazy? all my poker career has been a struggle against luck except for a rush in 600nl where i won at 7ptbb/100 for over 100k hands, im guessing since i posted screen shots of that you believe i am lucky or something, but here the screen shot i took is from 400k hands, so its not like "you finally ran bad" lol what the fuck.
However i am have a "no whinning" philosophy and i am very ashamed of myself for blogging this, i would delete it but ill let it stay just a reminder of my weakness.
Its also due to the online pro thing if i dont get it it would be morally devastating it would feel like im drowning on quicksand, somebody throws a rope and right when im about to grab it they troll me and pull it away.
On December 03 2010 22:17 Maynard! wrote:
Ya I remember you were a complete anti EV graph poster.... You finally ran bad once in your poker career eh? A good # of pros we see on PTR who appear to be good are likely just top 0.1% luck boxes. It HAS to happen to someone.
are you crazy? all my poker career has been a struggle against luck except for a rush in 600nl where i won at 7ptbb/100 for over 100k hands, im guessing since i posted screen shots of that you believe i am lucky or something, but here the screen shot i took is from 400k hands, so its not like "you finally ran bad" lol what the fuck.
However i am have a "no whinning" philosophy and i am very ashamed of myself for blogging this, i would delete it but ill let it stay just a reminder of my weakness.
Its also due to the online pro thing if i dont get it it would be morally devastating it would feel like im drowning on quicksand, somebody throws a rope and right when im about to grab it they troll me and pull it away.
Maybe I'm confusing you with someone else but as far as I remember you ranted and raved about how EV is completely meaningless.
Now I really am a busto. Thanks FTP.
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Carthac United States. Dec 04 2010 00:09. Posts 1343
On December 03 2010 21:49 Carthac wrote:
Baal don't you think Nano would be beyond the realm of lucky if the way he performed was due to him coming out on the positive side of variance every time?
BTW, congratulations if you make online pro. That would be so awesome to have 2 online pros from LP. Well, 2 that I know of at least
who is the other online pro? Raszi, Khan and Elky are TEAM pro.
Well nano obv doesnt win every single hand he is just the luckiest player ive seen.
I dont think khan is sponsored anymore, and elky doesnt come on very much
Havent read anything other than the the OP but - Your screen shot looks similar to what would represent my graph in the last 5 months which is: running 36 BI's below EV(of course not accounting for a plethora of coolers too). I've put practically no volume in as of late due to lack of motivation. All the power to people who can still come out on top and rise above this. It's always difficult not to want to let people know about this(if some remember how i used to do it), so i can sympathize with baal on this post.
On December 03 2010 22:17 Maynard! wrote:
Ya I remember you were a complete anti EV graph poster.... You finally ran bad once in your poker career eh? A good # of pros we see on PTR who appear to be good are likely just top 0.1% luck boxes. It HAS to happen to someone.
are you crazy? all my poker career has been a struggle against luck except for a rush in 600nl where i won at 7ptbb/100 for over 100k hands, im guessing since i posted screen shots of that you believe i am lucky or something, but here the screen shot i took is from 400k hands, so its not like "you finally ran bad" lol what the fuck.
However i am have a "no whinning" philosophy and i am very ashamed of myself for blogging this, i would delete it but ill let it stay just a reminder of my weakness.
Its also due to the online pro thing if i dont get it it would be morally devastating it would feel like im drowning on quicksand, somebody throws a rope and right when im about to grab it they troll me and pull it away.
Maybe I'm confusing you with someone else but as far as I remember you ranted and raved about how EV is completely meaningless.
i dont think i ever said that, you are probably confusing me lol how would i reach high stakes thinking like that, unless i meant it in the pure realistic form where EV isnt in your cashier.
EV is not meaningless in poker - but EV that hem shows is a meaningless stat because there is so much more luck in poker than it can show, that it's almost guaranteed to be way off.
On December 03 2010 22:17 Maynard! wrote:
Ya I remember you were a complete anti EV graph poster.... You finally ran bad once in your poker career eh? A good # of pros we see on PTR who appear to be good are likely just top 0.1% luck boxes. It HAS to happen to someone.
are you crazy? all my poker career has been a struggle against luck except for a rush in 600nl where i won at 7ptbb/100 for over 100k hands, im guessing since i posted screen shots of that you believe i am lucky or something, but here the screen shot i took is from 400k hands, so its not like "you finally ran bad" lol what the fuck.
However i am have a "no whinning" philosophy and i am very ashamed of myself for blogging this, i would delete it but ill let it stay just a reminder of my weakness.
Its also due to the online pro thing if i dont get it it would be morally devastating it would feel like im drowning on quicksand, somebody throws a rope and right when im about to grab it they troll me and pull it away.
Maybe I'm confusing you with someone else but as far as I remember you ranted and raved about how EV is completely meaningless.
i dont think i ever said that, you are probably confusing me lol how would i reach high stakes thinking like that, unless i meant it in the pure realistic form where EV isnt in your cashier.
are you talking about what Tom (I think) said about how EV graphs are meaningless b/c they don't really show if you're getting unlucky vs just playing bad b/c being coolered has a whole other effect than being sucked out on in these graphs?
I have to agree with HeRoS)eNGagE. Being down nearly 44 buy-ins on a 383k hand sample is unlucky, but it's not difficult to find far worse examples (a pretty spectacular one from a single PLO session: http://i261.photobucket.com/albums/ii77/iggymcfly/recordbreaker.jpg ).
It's not worth to invest energy in dwelling on your luck (unless something constructive comes out of it or it's the only way to make you feel better). And I'm not saying that, because I'm annoyed by whining or I feel like criticizing you, but because I believe everyone is REALLY better off when they start thinking that way.
On December 03 2010 21:10 Stygg wrote:
sooner or later, pretty much everyone will run worse than they perhaps thought was possible. thats a cliche nowadays, but only cause it's true.
Right, but look on the bright side - 'everyone will run better than they thought was possible' is an equally true statement. :D (assuming a person is objective when it comes to their visualization of luck)
Poland. Dec 04 2010 13:04. Posts 1982
