UFC FN 119: Brunson vs. Machida

Date: Saturday, October 28th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.stopstream.me/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Derek Brunson (17-5) vs. Lyoto Machida (22-7) (Middleweight)
Demian Maia (25-7) vs. Colby Covington (12-1) (Welterweight)
Pedro Munhoz (14-2) vs. Rob Font (14-2) (Bantamweight)
Francisco Trinaldo (21-5) vs. Jim Miller (28-10) (Lightweight)
Thiago Santos (15-5) vs. Jack Hermansson (16-3) (Middleweight)
John Lineker (29-8) vs. Marlon Vera (10-3-1) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 2)

Vicente Luque (11-6-1) vs. Niko Price (11-0) (Welterweight)
Antonio Carlos Junior (8-2) vs. Jack Marshman (22-6) (Middleweight)
Hacran Dias (23-5-1) vs. Jared Gordon (13-1) (Lightweight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (17-5) vs. Max Griffin (13-3) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Deiveson Figueiredo (12-0) vs. Jarred Brooks (13-0) (Flyweight)
Christian Colombo (8-2-1) vs. Marcelo Golm (5-0) (Heavyweight)

Other

- On September 19, promotional newcomer Carlos Felipe was flagged for a potential USADA violation stemming from an out-of-competition sample collected July 29. Therefore he was pulled from his UFC debut against Christian Colombo. He was replaced by fellow promotional newcomer Marcelo Golm on September 20.
- On October 6, it was announced that Luan Chagas fractured his foot and pulled out of his welterweight bout against Niko Price. He was replaced by Vicente Luque on October 6.

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First impression of the match-ups:

• Machida > Brunson
• Covington > Maia
• Munhoz > Font
• Trinaldo > Miller
• Santos > Hermansson
• Lineker > Vera
• Price > Luque
• Junior > Marshman
• Gordon > Dias
• Santos > Griffin
• Figueiredo > Brooks
• Golm > Colombo

Covington is favorite? The heck? I mean, he got subbed by Warlley Alves wait till you face Maia.
Only way i see Convington winning is if he kinda mimic the blueprint Masvidal has set.

Covington and Masvidal are friends / were room-mates I think? So it's not like him using a Masvidal gameplan would be that unexpected.

On October 24 2017 05:49 TianYuan wrote: Covington and Masvidal are friends / were room-mates I think? So it's not like him using a Masvidal gameplan would be that unexpected.

Yea essentially if Covington wants to be cocky and go to the ground with Maia, he's in for a rough night. But if he's smart, i think his wrestling is good enough to keep it standing and he def can win a standup fight.

Do we know who BJJ scout is? Except the rumors of being Ben Askren.

On October 24 2017 11:37 Montrachet wrote: Do we know who BJJ scout is? Except the rumors of being Ben Askren.

BJJ Scout's name is Verbal Kint.

On October 24 2017 16:57 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On October 24 2017 11:37 Montrachet wrote: Do we know who BJJ scout is? Except the rumors of being Ben Askren. BJJ Scout's name is Verbal Kint.

Just like the fictive character?

I made a bet on Machida and Maia since he is the underdog.

On October 24 2017 23:46 Montrachet wrote: Show nested quote + On October 24 2017 16:57 PuertoRican wrote:   On October 24 2017 11:37 Montrachet wrote: Do we know who BJJ scout is? Except the rumors of being Ben Askren. BJJ Scout's name is Verbal Kint. Just like the fictive character?

On October 25 2017 00:12 alejandicto wrote: I made a bet on Machida and Maia since he is the underdog.

I like the maia bet, but i'm not sure about Machida. He just suffered 2 really hard loss, he's now 39, and Brunson is pretty good.

On October 25 2017 02:59 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On October 25 2017 00:12 alejandicto wrote: I made a bet on Machida and Maia since he is the underdog. I like the maia bet, but i'm not sure about Machida. He just suffered 2 really hard loss, he's now 39, and Brunson is pretty good.

I'm the opposite.

I like Alejandicto's bet on Machida, but don't like his bet on Maia. Both guys are underdogs, so it's not a bad bet, I just think Machida will beat Brunson, and Covington will beat Maia.

Maia is 39-years-old (just like Machida), and he has been fighting professionally for 16 years. His last fight was a title shot that he worked hard to get (7 wins in a row), and he lost it, and he knows he won't ever get another title shot again. Also, people often lose their first fight after a title fight loss -- it happens enough that people have noticed a trend, but it's not a lock.

I think Machida will counter Brunson at some point and get the knockout. I see a small chance for it to go to a decision, but I hope it won't, cuz they're scheduled to fight 5 rounds.

I think Covington will win a boring decision over Maia.

thanks for the tips guys. I wanna see what happens.

Puertorican (and everyone who bets) I want to ask you how are you doing with the bets, are you winning so far? I am like break even (maybe losing a bit), I want to analyze more the fights before making a bet, I usually go for my instinct and what I remember.

last weekend I won a parlay from mousasi (bad bet at that odds, I thought mousasi was going to play with shlemenko) + karolina. And I lost 30 bucks on Cerrone. Thats my tendency on betting I win some bets and lose others.

I'm on a break from betting since I'm busy with work + school until the end of December.

I still play a lot on DraftKings, but I don't need to research much for DK. The strategy for DK is very different than actually betting on fights.

The best strategy for betting MMA is to only bet 5 or less fights per card. Most people who bet on MMA always bet every fight on every card, which is a losing strategy.

machida's gonna cash some checks and retire so i bet on brunson. since usada these guys just can't do it anymore
i bet on maia, just because he does well in non-title fights haha

On October 26 2017 00:46 whamm! wrote: machida's gonna cash some checks and retire so i bet on brunson. since usada these guys just can't do it anymore i bet on maia, just because he does well in non-title fights haha

If Machida wanted to retire, he would've done it already. He hasn't fought in nearly 2.5 years.

If anything, Machida returning to MMA after a nearly 2.5 year ban shows how hungry he is to kick someone's ass again.

i just feel the old guard are still fighting for the paychecks. there's been nobody from his time who's beating anybody
derek brunson is enough to put him into retirement imo

Machida said in a interview that the only reason he is coming back is to be a champion, he is the kind of guy who truly believe in himself and that he can be champion again imo.

Betting on older fighters coming off layoffs isn't often a good thing but I like Machida here. I think the layoff could actually have been beneficial in his circumstance since he got pretty destroyed physically in his last two fights. Good time to have recuperated. You could argue that his last two opponents were two of the top three middleweights and Brunson while good, definitely isn't that. 5 round fight. Just so much time for Brunson to make a striking mistake which he still does here and there. And one opening is all Machida should need

Like Trinaldo as well. Santos vs Hermansson should be fun. Luque and Price too. Maia and Covington is interesting as well. Looks like a sneaky good card. Certainly better than the average fight night Brazilian card

I think Machida matches up very well with Brunson. Still a lot of questions about him with 2 years off and 2 brutal losses back to back. So not sure about betting that fight, maybe live bet after seeing how the 1st round unfolds.

Also I am huge on Maia Can't really see why Colby is the fav here. The guy has to fight off close subs and is often reversed on the ground in most of his fights and is fighting a grappling based style against Maia, who is a wizard. Maybe he can keep it standing and win a boring decision, but still this fight ends on the ground the majority of the time and I think Covington sooner or later is going to make mistake and get strangled or reversed and dominated on the mat.

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My final picks:

• Machida > Brunson
• Covington > Maia
• Munhoz > Font
• Trinaldo > Miller
• Hermansson > Santos
• Lineker > Vera
• Price > Luque
• Junior > Marshman
• Gordon > Dias
• Zaleski-Santos > Griffin
• Figueiredo > Brooks
• Colombo > Golm

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Alright, it's 4:02pm and the event just started. I just added my DK teams to the top of this post.

I have to do a lot of homework today, so I won't be on LP to talk about the fights. Good luck everyone~

link?

I might be biased but i just cant see maia losing this... i hope im right

On October 28 2017 23:14 alejandicto wrote: link?

http://www.720pstream.me/brunson-vs-machida-stream

thanks

Cant wait for Dias to hobble to the finish line to win a robbery :D

Sick guillotine by Munhoz.

I'll be around for the last 2 fights, but I want them both to be low scoring so I can have a chance at making some money back that I lost for going heavy on Price.

wow i was wrong on that fight

Time to retire, Maia.

Lol covington interview

Would probably be the best for him and its also well deserved at 39

Machida walk out song was game of thrones theme? Or I am wrong?

ohh boy

Ouch...

Maia and Machida, both 39-years-old, and both NEED to retire.

Fml

I was sad to see Maia lose hard like this.

I think i didn't expect Covington to have such a good fight IQ. He had really good discipline. Never gave Maia any chance to get it to the ground.