UFC 194: Aldo vs. McGregor

Date: Saturday, December 12th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 1:00 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 2:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 4:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (PPV)

Jose Aldo (25-1) vs. Conor McGregor (18-2) (Featherweight Championship)
Chris Weidman (13-0) vs. Luke Rockhold (14-2) (Middleweight Championship )
Ronaldo Souza (22-3) vs. Yoel Romero (10-1) (Middleweight)
Demian Maia (21-6) vs. Gunnar Nelson (14-1-1) (Welterweight)
Max Holloway (14-3) vs. Jeremy Stephens (24-11) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Urijah Faber (32-8) vs. Frankie Saenz (11-2) (Bantamweight)
Tecia Torres (6-0) vs. Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger (6-1) (Women's Strawweight)
Warlley Alves (9-0) vs. Colby Covington (8-0) (Welterweight)
Leonardo Santos (14-3-1) vs. Kevin Lee (11-1) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Joe Proctor (11-3) vs. Magomed Mustafaev (12-1) (Lightweight)
John Makdessi (13-4) vs. Yancy Medeiros (11-3) (Lightweight)
Court McGee (16-4) vs. Marcio Alexandre Jr. (11-2) (Welterweight)

Other

- This event marks the first time the UFC has ever scheduled three events in consecutive days, with all of them taking place in Las Vegas. Instead of the MGM Grand Garden Arena, the other two events will be held at The Chelsea at The Cosmopolitan.
- The event is expected to be headlined by a UFC Featherweight Championship unification bout between current champion Jose Aldo and interim champion Conor McGregor. The bout was originally expected to take place at UFC 189. However, Aldo pulled out of the bout due to a rib injury and the event was instead headlined by an interim title bout between McGregor and Chad Mendes.
- The co-main event is expected to feature a UFC Middleweight Championship bout between undefeated champion Chris Weidman and former Strikeforce Middleweight champion Luke Rockhold.
- A middleweight bout between Ronaldo Souza and Yoel Romero was originally booked for UFC 184 and later UFC on Fox: Machida vs. Rockhold. However, the bout was cancelled both times due to Souza being struck with pneumonia and Romero pulling out due to a ligament and meniscus tear in his knee, respectively. The fight was later rescheduled for this event.
- Michelle Waterson was expected to face Tecia Torres at the event. However, Waterson pulled out of the bout on November 24 citing an injury. She was replaced by promotional newcomer Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Aldo > McGregor
• Rockhold > Weidman
• Jacare vs. Romero (dunno yet, but I expect this to be a stinker/boring fight, unless Romero lands a punch that stuns or finishes Jacare. I expect them to circle and fight on the outside, with both guys attempting a take down in round 1, then both giving up on TD's when they see it's too hard to get them.)
• Maia vs. Nelson (dunno yet. Nelson wins on the feet, and he has the better cardio. Not sure how their BJJ in MMA matches up.)
• Holloway > Stephens
• Faber > Saenz
• Torres vs. Lybarger (dunno yet. Torres can't finish a sandwich, and she won't out-wrestle and hold Lybarger down like she has been doing to low level chicks. Torres used to be super active with her stand-up, but I dunno what happened; her coaches probably noticed she eats a ton of punches in all of her fights and wanted to implement some wrestling before she loses. Lybarger is more dangerous (but Torres knows how to win on the cards), but I'm not sure how in-shape she is, and this is a 17-day short notice fight for her.)
• Alves vs. Covington (dunno)
• Lee > Santos
• Mustafaev > Proctor
• Makdessi > Medeiros
• McGee > Alexandre

So which UFC event is on a Friday?

On December 04 2015 05:33 jvilla777 wrote: So which UFC event is on a Friday?

TUF 21 Finale:

Frankie Edgar vs. Chad Mendes
Edson Barboza vs. Tony Ferguson
Joe Lauzon vs. Evan Dunham
Ryan LaFlare vs. Mike Pierce
Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Jason Knight
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Konstantin Erokhin
Joby Sanchez vs. Geane Herrera

The entire list of fighters won't be released until Wednesday, which is 2 days before the actual event. It's standard with TUF Finales.

Thanks for the thread PuertoRican!

I have a bet on Jose Aldo at +155. I expected the line to move up but it is going down. If it moves up again I will lay some more money on him, otherwise I will probably hedge. Such an exiting match up. Can see it go in so many different ways.
Without a doubt this looks like the best card in history.

I might be stuck in an airport during this fight, realllllllly dont' want to get accidentally spoiled.

Thanks for making this thread, as always.

I'm thinkin Conor, Chris and Yoel!! Gogo

Will be at fights. Stoked as shit. Thanks for making the threads mate.

McGregor > Aldo - Size, strength, chin, power, confidence, aggression, functional movement, highly technical but unorthodox style > speed, resume, highly technical but orthodox style. There are a million factors here and I'm sure everyone will have their own take. The narrative that Aldo got old and McGregor is still over-rated will be in full force after Aldo gets his lights put out. Anything could happen but I'm fairly confident the young Lion is gonna take over that kingdom.

Weidman > Rockhold - I don't need to even explain this pick. Weidman is so good everywhere. Rockhold has paths to victory because he is also really good everywhere and may have the cardio edge. I just don't really see where Rockhold is better that should matter. Great fucking fight.

Romero v Jacare - Pickem. Couple athletic as hell juice-heads that are insanely powerful. I'm interested to see if Jacare can get and hold a dominant position on Romero because if he can, that's a wrap, his Jitz is too insane. I doubt it tho, so I see the fight like Rican, except maybe less boring because I a KO or some back and forth madness on the feet would not be shocking either.

Nelson > Maia - Tough to pick. Maia likes to fight in insane bursts because of his cardio issues and because it suits his skill-set so well. So it really comes down, IMO, to the moments when Maia decides to explode with 1 or 2 punches into his vicious chain wrestling, can Nelson shut that aspect of Maia's game down? If so, he wins, and I do think he will. If not, he's still live because he has amazing BJJ as well and could have some sort of comeback victory, but his chances greatly diminish if he ever ends up on bottom. Also, Nelson's patient Karate style is probably a good standup style to have vs a fighter like Maia.

Holloway > Stephens - Via technical pick-a-part murder. 3rd round finish cuz Stephens is tough as hit but Holloway wants that paper.

Faber > Saenz - Snooze

Torres > Lybarger - Very clear, boring, and easy to score decision incoming. Lybarger sucks and Torres is good relative to the top talent at women's BW. Torres speed, movement and kicks will be way too much if she fights even half-smart.

Alves > Covington - Initially I had picked Covington and even had him in some parlays. Then I rewatched the tape and completely shifted my views. Covington can feasibly grind out a really boring decision. But more likely, he gets starched. At the top-20 level at 170, being a 1-dimensional wrestler shouldn't be enough, and I don't think it will be for Covington. Maybe he's improved since hes a touted ATT prospect.

Lee > Santos - Lee a beast.

Mustafaev > Proctor - Mustafaev a beast.

Makdessi v Medeiros - Not sure, Medeiros defense is soooo bad but he has a major reach and aggression advantage here and hes tough as shit.

McGee v Alexandre - Pickem. Vintage McGee wins via IQ, cardio/output.

Bets:

+ Show Spoiler +

On December 04 2015 13:17 northsails wrote: Thanks for the thread PuertoRican!

After analyzing and reviewing Aldo and McGregor fights I have completely lost faith in my Aldo bet and will probably hedge with the recent line movement. I can get a freeroll at current odds for McGregor and will do so.

Aldo needs to use his wrestling and be able to take Conor down frequently and keep him there or he is pretty much screwed. I think if he decides to stand with McGregor he is getting destroyed a lot of the time. The size of Conor is also going to be a problem as he has never faced such a big fighter so far in his career. Also his worse performances came against striking based fighters like Hominick and Korean Zombie, where against Hominick he was picked apart in boxing range a lot. Still he has a lot of ways to win this fight so I am not counting him out. At pickem odds however I will chose Mcgregor .

On December 06 2015 00:41 northsails wrote: After analyzing and reviewing Aldo and McGregor fights I have completely lost faith in my Aldo bet and will probably hedge with the recent line movement. I can get a freeroll at current odds for McGregor and will do so. Aldo needs to use his wrestling and be able to take Conor down frequently and keep him there or he is pretty much screwed. I think if he decides to stand with McGregor he is getting destroyed a lot of the time. The size of Conor is also going to be a problem as he has never faced such a big fighter so far in his career. Also his worse performances came against striking based fighters like Hominick and Korean Zombie, where against Hominick he was picked apart in boxing range a lot. Still he has a lot of ways to win this fight so I am not counting him out. At pickem odds however I will chose Mcgregor .

Definelty man. I think Conor should be closer to a -200 favorite.

Also his worse performances came against striking based fighters like Hominick and Korean Zombie,

My memory of Aldo vs Hominick (which was years ago now), was that Aldo destroyed him for 4 rounds then gassed hard in the 5th? Should I rewatch that? It's been a while.
Vs KZ he broke his foot in round 1 or 2 iirc...? Not really an indication of much I think except that wrestling Aldo can beat KZ.

Not really trying to say I think Aldo is going to win btw, I legitimately feel completely clueless about how the fight will even look.

On December 06 2015 02:40 TianYuan wrote: Show nested quote + Also his worse performances came against striking based fighters like Hominick and Korean Zombie, My memory of Aldo vs Hominick (which was years ago now), was that Aldo destroyed him for 4 rounds then gassed hard in the 5th? Should I rewatch that? It's been a while. Vs KZ he broke his foot in round 1 or 2 iirc...? Not really an indication of much I think except that wrestling Aldo can beat KZ. Not really trying to say I think Aldo is going to win btw, I legitimately feel completely clueless about how the fight will even look.

Everyone knew Aldo was sick going into that fight. The reason why that fight was memorable is cuz Hominick was on top of Aldo in the 5th round and people overreacted, as if Aldo was close to being finished. The take down Hominick landed in R5 was due to Aldo landed an uppercut and hurting Hominick, then both guys were so close that Hominick grabbed Aldo and took him down, using momentum and poor footing by Aldo. Anyway, Aldo clearly won that fight. (4.5 year-old fight) (The judges scores were 50-43, 48-46, 49-46.)

The fight against Korean Zombie wasn't close, it was Aldo being a counter striker and then KZ's shoulder popped out of the socket. (2.5+ year-old fight)

Aldo vs. Lamas was Lamas not wanting to fully engage and get clipped. Lamas fought from the outside the entire time and it was basically a sparring match that Lamas wasn't going to win because he isn't a volume striker, and he would get clipped if he tried to box against Aldo.

Anyway, in the end, using these 3 fights as a reason why Aldo will lose is kinda bad. Aldo landed more strikes and 5 take downs against Homnick and wasn't going to lose; Aldo wasn't losing his fight against KZ prior to the injury, he had almost double the significant strikes landed, and landed 5 take downs against KZ; and Lamas was fighting not to lose, thus Aldo just had to do his usual thing, which he did by landing more strikes and getting 2 take downs on a wrestler.

But the point is that these were competitive fights vs Mark Hominick and the Korean Zombie. No disrespect to those fighters but now we have an older Aldo and a completely different level fighter. Aldo's fight vs Mendes was insanely impressive (prolly Aldo's best UFC performance) but also worrisome if you are an Aldo fan. He was dropped twice by a guy who hits half as hard as McGregor and it was a very close fight. Edgar is just a perfect stylistic opponent for Aldo, not really impressed by that one relative to how good I already know Aldo is.

These aren't reason's in it of of themselves to bet on McGregor, but if you come out of the fight and say to yourself "Aldo got old and worse, that's the reason he lost" - than you should have seen that as a realistic possibility well before the fight occurred.

For the record, I'm not saying "you" at anyone in specific, more the general public, because I know that if Aldo gets crushed, that is going to be the narrative - "he got old and McGregor got him at the right time". And I think that's really dumb since its such a predictable outcome.

Don't get me wrong, Aldo could come in, frustrate McGregor, implement insane defense, and pick him apart. And if so Aldo is just too good and mad props to him. I don't see it going that way.

McGregor
Rockhold
Romero
Holloway
Nelson

My point in bringing this two fight is that Aldo is not looking as impressive when he is facing a striker. Yes he was ill and had a bad weight cut coming into the Hominick fight, but that doesn't change the fact that at times he had to resort to his wrestling and take him down because Hominick was doing very well in exchanges. He dominated and won both those fights but it was not the Aldo we see when he is fighting a wrestler.

He is looking like an absolute destroyer when fighting wrestlers and the reason for that I believe is that they match up very well for him. He has insane takedown defence and great intercepting knees and punches (his uppercut) and he is huge for the weight class and very athletic. When facing a wrestler he looks unstoppable as if his opponent stays on the outside he is going to destroy him with kicks and if he shoots for takedowns he is going to meet him with knees or uppercuts. On top of that he always has the size advantage and usually is alot bigger that his opponents. Now he is coming in against an opponent who is not going to shoot for takedowns and is alot bigger than him with I believe a superior striking. He is in trouble.

Weidman will have a pretty sick record if he wins here...

[QUOTE]On December 06 2015 11:33 northsails wrote:
My point in bringing this two fight is that Aldo is not looking as impressive when he is facing a striker. Yes he was ill and had a bad weight cut coming into the Hominick fight, but that doesn't change the fact that at times he had to resort to his wrestling and take him down because Hominick was doing very well in exchanges. He dominated and won both those fights but it was not the Aldo we see when he is fighting a wrestler.

He is looking like an absolute destroyer when fighting wrestlers and the reason for that I believe is that they match up very well for him. He has insane takedown defence and great intercepting knees and punches (his uppercut) and he is huge for the weight class and very athletic. When facing a wrestler he looks unstoppable as if his opponent stays on the outside he is going to destroy him with kicks and if he shoots for takedowns he is going to meet him with knees or uppercuts. On top of that he always has the size advantage and usually is alot bigger that his opponents. Now he is coming in against an opponent who is not going to shoot for takedowns and is alot bigger than him with I believe a superior striking. He is in trouble. [/QUOTE

Well put IMO

I think Rockhold is at least 50% to beat Weidman, I think he has a slight edge 60/40 but Weidman's championship status makes it back to 50/50.

I have no fucking clue or idea about Aldo vs McGregor. I mean Aldo is from the favela's, I don't think hes going to cave but he might just lose on straight up skills alone.

I think Romero > Jacare, I think its just his time. I think he has more to gain/lose and will want it more.

Maia > Gunnar Nelson ~ I'm not sure about this one, but Maia is a beast now. Gunnar Nelson is good, but I doubt he has an edge grappling...I think Maia has the right type of energy to beat him, the type that puts on pressure and expounds a consistent output, but doesn't leave enough openings for Gunnar Nelsons calmness and strategic nature to be able to find much.

Haven't stayed up till 7am just to watch fights in a long time, but this is going to be insane.

Firas Zahabi 40 min video on Aldo v McGregor

Wow not a single pro picked McGregor? EDIT: OK 1. And I have no idea who he is.

On December 08 2015 02:45 TianYuan wrote: Wow not a single pro picked McGregor? EDIT: OK 1. And I have no idea who he is.

Its very clear that there is a certain 'political correctness' for both the media and the pros. They don't want to be the guy to pick against the legend, and worse, they don't want to be the guy to pick for the 'douchebag'.

I bet my bank account at least a few of those dudes are leaning McGregor.

On December 08 2015 05:08 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On December 08 2015 02:45 TianYuan wrote: Wow not a single pro picked McGregor? EDIT: OK 1. And I have no idea who he is. Its very clear that there is a certain 'political correctness' for both the media and the pros. They don't want to be the guy to pick against the legend, and worse, they don't want to be the guy to pick for the 'douchebag'. I bet my bank account at least a few of those dudes are leaning McGregor.

I think that video has some interviews that are from ufc 189 or something. look at what Mir said.

Now look at this one which seems more recent:


This one is much more 50/50. Also keep in mind Brazilians will almost all say Aldo....

I actaully have no idea who's going to win main & co main, but I am leaning towards Rockhold over Weidman..........which pains me to say

Can't wait for this weekend starting thursday!!!

Aldo
Weidman
Jacare
Maia
Halloway

I think Aldo will mix it up and dominate on the ground, possibly subbing Conor. Conors TDD and ground game looked really mediocre against Mendes.

Weidman will pressure Rockhold, taking away his only real good offense standing which are his kicks, be in his face, box him up. push him against the cage, take him down and beat him up there too. Rockhold has a good chance if Weidman gasses, if not though I think he gets beat handily.

Jacare should be the better striker. Romero hits like a tank but he's pretty wild and sloppy and has an average chin. I think Jacare cracks him and tko's or subs him in 2.

Maia will be able to get Gunnar down and win the first two rounds and takes it 29-28

Holloway will light Stephens up standing.

On December 08 2015 05:08 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On December 08 2015 02:45 TianYuan wrote: Wow not a single pro picked McGregor? EDIT: OK 1. And I have no idea who he is. Its very clear that there is a certain 'political correctness' for both the media and the pros. They don't want to be the guy to pick against the legend, and worse, they don't want to be the guy to pick for the 'douchebag'. I bet my bank account at least a few of those dudes are leaning McGregor.

Plus 1/3 of them = Brazilian so some bias

I think it was also filmed, at least some of them, before McGregor vs Mendes, since Mir mentions he would have liked to see McG Mendes or McG Edgar first.

On December 08 2015 05:23 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On December 08 2015 05:08 soberstone wrote:   On December 08 2015 02:45 TianYuan wrote: Wow not a single pro picked McGregor? EDIT: OK 1. And I have no idea who he is. Its very clear that there is a certain 'political correctness' for both the media and the pros. They don't want to be the guy to pick against the legend, and worse, they don't want to be the guy to pick for the 'douchebag'. I bet my bank account at least a few of those dudes are leaning McGregor. I think that video has some interviews that are from ufc 189 or something. look at what Mir said. Now look at this one which seems more recent: This one is much more 50/50. Also keep in mind Brazilians will almost all say Aldo....

Feels still overwhelmingly in favour of Aldo or wishy washy answers? I mean even someone like Gus who did pick McGregor basically said he was picking him because he's a fellow European.

There are some very interesting aspects to this fight that I haven't seen discussed much in other places.


-I think it was pretty obvious Conor had a knee injury going into the Mendes fight. His lateral movement was non existent and didn't look like himself. That fight was 5 months ago and he never had surgery, is his knee really healed for this fight?

-I read an interesting breakdown of the fight by Patrick Wyman over at bleacherreport. One of the things he noted was that Conor isn't as wedded to outside leg dominance as most southpaw fighters. Basically, when a southpaw fighter faces an orthodox fighter, winning the battle of outside leg dominance often leads to an advantageous position. Robbie Lawler is an absolute master at this and he uses it to both stop takedowns and to land big strikes with a positional edge. Now Conor has his own tricks by not using lead leg dominance, but I think this also makes him more vulnerable to Aldo's chopping leg kicks.

-Conor's pace and output will give Aldo fits. Not just because Aldo is comfortable fighting at a slower pace, and not just because Aldo has shown more cardio issues, but if CM pushes forward, throws more strikes, he can win rounds. I think this fight probably goes to a decision more often than most others do, winning those close rounds with more volume is really important.

-I think a common sentiment is that nobody really knows how good CM is yet. He was injured vs Mendes and his striking has never been challenged. I would argue we don't really have any idea how good Aldo is; he seems to coast in every fight and is obsessed with conserving energy and finding the path of least resistance to victory.


All in all, I think Aldo needs to be favored. He is literally better at everything except for punching faces (and taking face punches), has multiple paths to victory, is an absolute defensive wizard while CM has holes in his defense, and I'm not convinced CM fully recovered from the knee injury without surgery. Still, not confident in that opinion and am more excited for this fight than I have ever been for another.


Weidman > Rockhold. LR gets hit a lot, CW has solid fundamentals and should capitalize repeatedly on LR mistakes.

Romero > Jacare. Think he probably melts him at some point, and no shot Jacare gets this to the ground other than a knockdown. People love to reference Yoel being taken down by Derek Brunson, but the guy literally didn't train his wrestling (since his actual wrestling days) for any fight until Tavares and has not been taken down since.

Maia > Gunnar. GN is just too passive, think he loses 2 rounds. Better fighter though and should win, just don't believe he has the heart to be a fighter.

I know this isn't the right thread but since all you MMA enthusiasts will be checking it http://www.mmafighting.com/2015/12/8/...ps-after-loss-i-m-staying-with-edmond

I would definitely recommend a bet on Holm at +135.

@daut

Good points mate.

Agree 100 % about the injury. No-one seems to acknowledge that the McGregor that squashed the 2-week Mendes was the worst version of McGregor we have seen in the UFC health-wise, and its not close. He didn't look like himself at all, he was pale and could only come forward, backward effectively. Luckily for him, Mendes broke mentally early on in that fight. I think McGregor will fight very similarly to how he did vs Holloway in gameplan (using forward pressure, cagecutting and his boxing to setup his exotic kicks, not vice-versa) and I don't think Aldo can take half the shot Holloway can these days (that is completely subjective of-course, I can't prove that, but we'll see what happens Saturday).

Patrick Wyman gives really good technical breakdowns but I've noticed with his picks he tends to over-think individual technical aspects and undervalue overall fight dynamic, intangibles, and fighter trajectory. If I want technical analysis, Slack is God and much more on the money with picking out the relevant technical dynamics.

I say that about Wyman's point because I don't believe this fight is going to have to do with the southpaw / lead-leg position battle dynamic nearly as much as timing, power, durability, and mental readiness. The nuanced technical aspects come into play over 5-rounds in a layered battle - like in Rory vs Robbie - but I doubt it plays a tangible role in this fight but it is a very interesting point he brings up

@nazgul

I wouldn't tie up money in a Holm/Rousey bet right now simply because a date hasn't been announced and fights get pushed back and cancelled way too much. Totally with you in sentiment though, the fact that Rousey is a favorite speaks to the stubbornness of the public and I am certainly more convinced after reading that that she's learned nothing about how truly out-classed she was that night and how she is not special beyond what she has done for the sport and how great of an athlete and grappler she is. The hype got to her so hard that even the events that transpired didn't blast her back into reality via humility. She learned nothing and is not shedding her yes-men.

On December 07 2015 11:57 Nazgul wrote: Haven't stayed up till 7am just to watch fights in a long time, but this is going to be insane.

+1

is there a way to watch premium quality in the eu on a stream

One thing that might be interesting is the IV ban coming into effect. Usually all 4 of the title fighters are huge for their weight class. Especially Conor and Rockhold. Apparently Weidman was like 193 pounds 2 weeks ago and is currently 189 as of 2 days ago. Wonder if this will help him a lot, or being the smaller man will hurt him here. The one weakness in his game people have pointed out though has been his cardio, and this should help it.

On December 08 2015 15:40 Nazgul wrote: I know this isn't the right thread but since all you MMA enthusiasts will be checking it http://www.mmafighting.com/2015/12/8/...ps-after-loss-i-m-staying-with-edmond I would definitely recommend a bet on Holm at +135.

"I guess it's all going to be determined by what happens in the rematch," Rousey told ESPN Magazine. "Everything is going to be determined by that. Either I'll win and keep going or I won't and I'll be done with everything."

Now she knows what it feels like to be Miesha Tate.

Final picks Aldo > McGregor and Weidman > Rockhold. I saw what made Weidman so special in that interview. And saw something about the Aldo/McGregor fight.

The more I think about their skillsets and the more technical analysis I read, the more I'm confident in Weidman. Rockhold has to rely on a mistake. What's he gonna do, back Weidman off with his pillow-fists? He's got a nice check hook I guess. Kick moving backwards? That seems like a recipe for disaster.

Weidman coming in light and healthy while the odds move the opposite direction is just indicative of dog-chasing and/or people being enamored with Rockhold's highlights or chalking up everything Weidman has done to luck (which is really stupid, I say that unapologetic-ally)

I really don't understand what Rockhold's path to victory is besides somehow winding up in top position for a prolonged period of time. That's hard when the other guy is a much better wrestler and probably won't even be shooting sloppy takedowns.

I actually think Weidman is going to get himself a stoppage in rounds 3-4.

My opinion on strategy:

Rockhold's best strategy is probably to lure Weidman in with an active jab while moving laterally and backwards, clinch with over-unders once they get near the fence, and work a trip to initiate a scramble.

Weidman's best strategy is to be patient, legkick, and let his hands go on Rockhold when they are in tight. He should only clinch/wrestle once they are sweaty and Rockhold is damaged.

Can't actually believe Ronda isn't at least even considering training elsewhere. At least on like a half camp or something like that basis. Or maybe she did but anyways.

A little random and this isn't to do with his training acumen (or lack thereof) or anything but anyone else notice that Edmond is a little bit...uhh creepy? Unsure what the right word is. Not just an in hindsight thing after the fact that everyone has shit on him now. Noticed earlier...like the 2nd Tate fight and Carmouche fight...when Ronda is getting patted down before entering the ring and hugging her camp, Edmond was always awkwardly trying to lean in for a closer cheek kiss or something. Really don't know how to describe it except that it just isn't normal.

Thought once the 'if it isn't broke, don't fix it' thing was out the window, Ronda would wise up. Well, so did a lot of people. Kinda sucks. I actually really want to root for Ronda to make a successful comeback after seeing the ridiculous backlash but well, basically training yourself against Holly + Winklejohn + Greg Jackson after you got your block knocked off in every part of the first fight doesn't seem like the greatest path to that

I feel strongest about Weidman > Rockhold even though I think Rockhold is his biggest threat...past and near future (including Jacare and Romero). A lot seems to be made out of his little stumble vs Vitor in the last fight before turning it around. My read on that was that Weidman knew he was facing a lessor Vitor and rushed into a clumsy charge. Think Luke's length and athleticism will give some problems on the feet in R1 and possibly into R2 but don't see Rockhold stopping the eventual takedown and it seems like Chris's physical strength on the ground is going to be enough. Weidman is so constantly criminally underrated. I hope this is his real coming out party. x 4. Since he's supposed to have had it several times now.

I like Gunnar but I'm also I think like 1-101 in predicting Maia fights. Actually really interested to see how that first minute of that fight plays out.

Random note on the week and card: A lot was made out of Conor being the new guy of the last couple years and the future to break MMA more into the mainstream. Maybe I'm in a different bubble but I feel like there's no actual buzz outside of the MMA world and I've heard absolutely nothing from friends that are casuals...who all were talkin up Ronda's fight at around this point in the week. The UFC did a great job putting together an awesome card that actually held up against injuries more or less...but now they need the actual fights to be barnburners.

- Just finally watched an embedded. LR looks a good bit bigger than he has before. Always ripped but looks like some added size.

I agree with everyone, Weidman can keep forward pressure vs Rockhold because his hand are much better, neutralizing his kicks and Luke's check hook works against fighters rushing in and Weidman always does the opposite he moves in very little steps so I think he will control the octagon as he pleases, but I honestly have no clue what happens when they clinch and that will be very important.

I have no clue what will happen with Jose Aldo and Connor, Aldos gas tank is VERY worrisome, Connor pressures a lot and if this goes the distance Aldo will have nothing past the 3rd round, however Connor is very vulnerable to leg kicks and Aldo has the best kicks in the division or maybe MMA but he throws less and less leg kicks every fight, so Im not convinced he will go for them as much as he should on this fight

@iakim

Totally agree.

Mainstream buzz isn't what I wish it was to this point.

But hey, why would people care about the best card of all time when they could talk about a Feminist Icon who beat up petrified women in the infant stages of WMMA and than got exposed.

I was always hoping Rousey would get exposed but that's partially cause I thought people would care more about real top level fighters. What a stupid expectation of casual fans by me.

That said, whatever floats peoples boat and grows the sport is a good thing, I just hope ESPN decides to give this card due coverage, they control mainstream sports fans.

On December 09 2015 04:54 Baalim wrote: I agree with everyone, Weidman can keep forward pressure vs Rockhold because his hand are much better, neutralizing his kicks and Luke's check hook works against fighters rushing in and Weidman always does the opposite he moves in very little steps so I think he will control the octagon as he pleases, but I honestly have no clue what happens when they clinch and that will be very important. I have no clue what will happen with Jose Aldo and Connor, Aldos gas tank is VERY worrisome, Connor pressures a lot and if this goes the distance Aldo will have nothing past the 3rd round, however Connor is very vulnerable to leg kicks and Aldo has the best kicks in the division or maybe MMA but he throws less and less leg kicks every fight, so Im not convinced he will go for them as much as he should on this fight

Keep in mind Aldo fights wrestlers the vast majority of the time, so leg kicks become more vulnerable. Also he broke his foot in the first round of the KZ fight. But he threw a lot in the lamas, Florian, and Hominick fight.

Aldo > McGregor
Rockhold > Weidman
Yoel > Jacare

You heard it here first

Oh and Edgar > Mendes

^ I think some of us already have those same picks, but it's all good.

On December 09 2015 07:33 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2015 04:54 Baalim wrote: I agree with everyone, Weidman can keep forward pressure vs Rockhold because his hand are much better, neutralizing his kicks and Luke's check hook works against fighters rushing in and Weidman always does the opposite he moves in very little steps so I think he will control the octagon as he pleases, but I honestly have no clue what happens when they clinch and that will be very important. I have no clue what will happen with Jose Aldo and Connor, Aldos gas tank is VERY worrisome, Connor pressures a lot and if this goes the distance Aldo will have nothing past the 3rd round, however Connor is very vulnerable to leg kicks and Aldo has the best kicks in the division or maybe MMA but he throws less and less leg kicks every fight, so Im not convinced he will go for them as much as he should on this fight Keep in mind Aldo fights wrestlers the vast majority of the time, so leg kicks become more vulnerable. Also he broke his foot in the first round of the KZ fight. But he threw a lot in the lamas, Florian, and Hominick fight.

yeah but even taking that into consideration I think he is kicking way less, but i am obviously not sure if it has been planned and he will leg kick connor to death... but also I wouldnt be shocked if he kicked way less than he should

Never seen a prefight presser with Luke so I dunno if he's normally like this before a fight, but he seemed super nervous. Stumbling over his worsts, fidgeting, and his voice getting really high pitched at times.

Conor was actually pretty respectful, even gave Aldo a nod at the end of their staredown, and didn't wear a suit but one of the ugliest shirts ever. Think he's just super focused right now.

Aldo seemed uninterested as always.

Weidman seemed super relaxed.

^ Luke, Conor, and Jose are dealing with their normal weight cut, while Weidman was 193 lbs the other day and has been working on lowering his weight for this fight so he won't have to deal with having to cut a lot of weight like he usually does. IVs were banned on October 1st, so Weidman thought ahead.

I don't think the lack of IV will hurt Rockhold. Conor cuts a lot of weight for his fights, as does Jose, but Conor cuts more, obv.

Anyway, Luke's reaction is standard for him during fight-week.

Mendes looked bored as fuck on that panel.

On December 09 2015 07:38 JonnyCosMo wrote: Aldo > McGregor Rockhold > Weidman Yoel > Jacare You heard it here first

I'm starting to lean Yoel myself, but I'll put one out there since you seem confident and I know you're a poker baller.

If Weidman and McGregor win, you Venmo/Paypal me 500.

If Rockhold and Aldo win, I Venmo/Paypal you 600.

If they split, we call it a wash.

Odds are close to pickem on both fights so I feel like this is fair.

Sup widit? Public call-out.... ooooOOOOoooooHHHH

rockhold, mcgregor, yoel, nelson, edgar. holloway

rockhold is one of those uncanny guys who fight way better than than people give them credit for. if he loses it will only be by a brutal KO

mcgregor is giant for the division, aldo with no brazilian supplements will be exposed, he will get KO'ed

yoel bigger and stronger

nelson same with rockhold

holloway wins by decision

edgar is fighting a midget version of himself

$100 free roll: http://mobile.kountermove.com/join/48...asy-mma-aldo-vs-mcgregor-1212-T-free/

On December 10 2015 00:40 whamm! wrote: rockhold, mcgregor, yoel, nelson, edgar. holloway rockhold is one of those uncanny guys who fight way better than than people give them credit for. if he loses it will only be by a brutal KO mcgregor is giant for the division, aldo with no brazilian supplements will be exposed, he will get KO'ed yoel bigger and stronger nelson same with rockhold holloway wins by decision edgar is fighting a midget version of himself

I don't think the size difference is as much as you say, but i havent seen them next to each other that i can remember so i could be wrong

On December 09 2015 23:41 PuertoRican wrote: ^ Luke, Conor, and Jose are dealing with their normal weight cut, while Weidman was 193 lbs the other day and has been working on lowering his weight for this fight so he won't have to deal with having to cut a lot of weight like he usually does. IVs were banned on October 1st, so Weidman thought ahead. I don't think the lack of IV will hurt Rockhold. Conor cuts a lot of weight for his fights, as does Jose, but Conor cuts more, obv. Anyway, Luke's reaction is standard for him during fight-week. Mendes looked bored as fuck on that panel.

It's not even that luke seemed drained or irritated or tired, he seemed nervous and anxious as fuck. Someone on Sherdog pointed out he was reading a book on the plane on embedded about dealing with anxiety and depression etc.

I am also excited about this card. Specifically, the Aldo v McGregor fight. CM and coach John Kavanaugh are on to some good shit. Good enough shit to beat Aldo? I don't know. I will sit back and enjoy.

Recently i've mostly been following sober's picks a bit blindly

but there's some of his picks i have serious doubt about.

Weidman -165

RockHold has never lost to anyone except to a flash KO by super TRT vitor.
He even dominated Machida harder than Conor dominated Siver... its saying something imo.


The way i see the fight going is.... weidman will press forward, and most likely look like hes winning the striking, not doing any real damage. RockHold will back away and keep his cool, eat a few shots and play it safe. At some point he will probably attempt kicks, which will either inflict damage or get himself taken down. If he is taken down, it won't be an huge deal. He will take some damage, but it won't be like Weidman vs Vitor. Essentially, during this period, Rockhold will be safe, and might catch WeidMan with something big if WeidMan makes a mistake.

Eventually, as fight will go on, Weidman will slow down and get more tired. At this point, RockHold will get really dangerous, and probably decimate Weidman whatever way he wants. I actually think 5 round fights gives advantage to RockHold.


But the odds got much worse than before. i was really happy about RockHold +150, but now i might consider passing the fight since sober actually thinks Weidman -160 is +EV and i know hes a much better sport better than me. Rockhold +115 isn't that crazy anymore.


Nelson +125

I agree with you, if Nelson gets on bottom, hes in trouble. And i think he will get on bottom, because at welterweight pretty much nobody can stop maia from takin you down. Your only hope against maia is to survive early rounds and then beat him once hes tired as hell, a bit like Rory did. I think Nelson won't be able to do it.

Imo, Maia is like a gate keeper to the top 5, while Gunnar probably isn't even top 10 yet. I think the odds are the way they are because they think Nelson's BJJ will somehow negate Maia's grappling, and Nelson has the edge standing.




One thing i find very interesting is, as a general, the guys who pick RockHold actually respect the guys who pick Weidman, and vice versa. I think most people agree both are really good, and both have a real shot at winning this.

On the other hand, Conor vs ALdo's odds are much closer, but it seems like Conor fans are like "LOL EZ MONEY CONORS NEVER LOSING THIS", while aldo fans are the exact opposite. On that fight, most people are either white or black, while ppl are much more grey for the co-main event.

On December 10 2015 04:50 Floofy wrote: Recently i've mostly been following sober's picks a bit blindly but there's some of his picks i have serious doubt about. Weidman -165 RockHold has never lost to anyone except to a flash KO by super TRT vitor. He even dominated Machida harder than Conor dominated Siver... its saying something imo. The way i see the fight going is.... weidman will press forward, and most likely look like hes winning the striking, not doing any real damage. RockHold will back away and keep his cool, eat a few shots and play it safe. At some point he will probably attempt kicks, which will either inflict damage or get himself taken down. If he is taken down, it won't be an huge deal. He will take some damage, but it won't be like Weidman vs Vitor. Essentially, during this period, Rockhold will be safe, and might catch WeidMan with something big if WeidMan makes a mistake. Eventually, as fight will go on, Weidman will slow down and get more tired. At this point, RockHold will get really dangerous, and probably decimate Weidman whatever way he wants. I actually think 5 round fights gives advantage to RockHold. But the odds got much worse than before. i was really happy about RockHold +150, but now i might consider passing the fight since sober actually thinks Weidman -160 is +EV and i know hes a much better sport better than me. Rockhold +115 isn't that crazy anymore. Nelson +125 I agree with you, if Nelson gets on bottom, hes in trouble. And i think he will get on bottom, because at welterweight pretty much nobody can stop maia from takin you down. Your only hope against maia is to survive early rounds and then beat him once hes tired as hell, a bit like Rory did. I think Nelson won't be able to do it. Imo, Maia is like a gate keeper to the top 5, while Gunnar probably isn't even top 10 yet. I think the odds are the way they are because they think Nelson's BJJ will somehow negate Maia's grappling, and Nelson has the edge standing. One thing i find very interesting is, as a general, the guys who pick RockHold actually respect the guys who pick Weidman, and vice versa. I think most people agree both are really good, and both have a real shot at winning this. On the other hand, Conor vs ALdo's odds are much closer, but it seems like Conor fans are like "LOL EZ MONEY CONORS NEVER LOSING THIS", while aldo fans are the exact opposite. On that fight, most people are either white or black, while ppl are much more grey for the co-main event.

2 things re: weidman vs rockhold. Weidman has NEVER lost. Rockhold has Also, I don't look at the Machida fight and say "rockhold dominated this", i look at it as "rockhold made a bunch of mistakes early, looked very hittable, landed a huge shot that fucked machida up and then he finished him on the ground". Rockhold is a pretty phenomenal grappler, has huge power in a variety of shots, but he is an antiquated striker. he doesnt throw combinations, he looks for one shot at a time, and i dont think his defense is good. meanwhile weidman is just a standard boxer with basic strikes, but he is effective, and has good head movement and defense. I just think he is better than Rockhold at almost everything, and even though Rockhold is super dangerous at everything, I think Weidman is good enough to outclass him in every area, avoid the traps and danger and win.

This fight is super similar to Mendes vs Edgar. I think Edgar is just the better fighter and is facing the better athlete who is a bit more dangerous, and my head just tells me that the better fighter is gonna win. The one difference between these fights is that Mendes has more 1 punch KO power than Rockhold and Edgar is more hittable with defensive lapses than Weidman. So my gut tells me that at some point during the fight Mendes might just waste him. But I get less of a feeling of that in this fight. Completely understand why people bet on Rockhold as a dog, the guy is fucking great at everything, I just think he has some holes, Weidman doesnt, and the stuff Rockhold is absolutely best at (finishing on the ground with a sub) he won't be able to take advantage of due to a wrestling disadvantage.

@floofy Why do you seem to think Rockhold hits harder than Weidman? He doesn't... He has 3 t(ko)s in his entire career while Weidman has 5 in 3 less fights against much better strikers.

Sure Rockhold hurts plenty of guys then subs them, but outside of Machida he's never hurt a decent fighter with a decent chin. Only strike he has that I consider powerful is his body kick, and his high kick that he's only ever landed once, on bisping, who was pretty bad at that point, nearly blind in one eye and had blood pouring into the other from a headbutt.

Not to mention Weidmans chin seems to be granite and he just is a tough mother fucker. Meanwhile Rockhold has been tko'd twice and dropped a few times by Jacare also.

Re the machida fights. I feel they fought two different guys.

Weidman fought the standard super defensive Machida who basically tried to not engage for 3 rounds. Rockhold fought a Machida that was told he lost that fight because he was too passive, so he came in ultra aggressive out of his comfort zone and basically tripped over Rockholds leg super clumsy and Rockhold transitioned into a great position and from there was able to land a huge elbow.

I feel if Machida came in super aggressive against Weidman he would of been finished early too. I also feel that if Machida fought defensively against Luke he could of made it a good fight. He was clearly getting better of the exchanges, and if not for the trip I doubt Rockhold gets him down. He's only ever had 1 takedown in his entire career prior to that fight. He is not good at using takedowns offensively.

On December 09 2015 23:41 PuertoRican wrote: ^ Luke, Conor, and Jose are dealing with their normal weight cut, while Weidman was 193 lbs the other day and has been working on lowering his weight for this fight so he won't have to deal with having to cut a lot of weight like he usually does. IVs were banned on October 1st, so Weidman thought ahead. I don't think the lack of IV will hurt Rockhold. Conor cuts a lot of weight for his fights, as does Jose, but Conor cuts more, obv. Anyway, Luke's reaction is standard for him during fight-week. Mendes looked bored as fuck on that panel.

Don't know if this is accurate but...

fight in weight mighty mouse 140 tj dillashaw 148 jose aldo 161 conor mcgregor 168 rafael dos anjos 174 robbie lawler 190 chris weidman 208 daniel cormier 218

http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f2/c...showpost.php?p=108914321&postcount=29

On December 10 2015 15:15 TianYuan wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2015 23:41 PuertoRican wrote: ^ Luke, Conor, and Jose are dealing with their normal weight cut, while Weidman was 193 lbs the other day and has been working on lowering his weight for this fight so he won't have to deal with having to cut a lot of weight like he usually does. IVs were banned on October 1st, so Weidman thought ahead. I don't think the lack of IV will hurt Rockhold. Conor cuts a lot of weight for his fights, as does Jose, but Conor cuts more, obv. Anyway, Luke's reaction is standard for him during fight-week. Mendes looked bored as fuck on that panel. Don't know if this is accurate but...   fight in weight mighty mouse 140 tj dillashaw 148 jose aldo 161 conor mcgregor 168 rafael dos anjos 174 robbie lawler 190 chris weidman 208 daniel cormier 218 http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f2/c...showpost.php?p=108914321&postcount=29

Yeah, Weidman usually cuts a lot of weight for his fights, but he went on some diet or something awhile back, so he's been extra light for this camp, which means he doesn't have to cut much weight. Conor is doing his normal weight cut afaik.

How much does Conor walk around with when not in fight camp approximately ?

On December 10 2015 18:55 cariadon wrote: How much does Conor walk around with when not in fight camp approximately ?

He once said around 170. You can look it back up, it was in the video with the major of Las Vegas or whoever where both him and Aldo got some kind of key to the city during their media tour for when the last fight was supposed to happen.

Mostly I'm lurking here nowadays and I would like to thank PuertoRican for keeping up with these UFC threads and lots of other people for giving their insights in these fights. Kind of funny though that I find quite a few differences on opinions as far as the Aldo vs. McGregor fight goes. There are quite a few places where they think Aldo is favorite while the general consensus here seems to be that McGregor is a rightful favorite. Personally, I'm far from an expert (although I do try to learn from analysis I come across all over) but I think it's a really tough fight to call because I think it will all about whether Aldo can attack the leg of McGregor without getting punished too heavily. At the same time, the McGregor camp has to expect this and should have some kind of counter to it. I think it's also interesting to look at if Aldo will use his takedowns more than he usually does in this fight. That might be something to worry about for McGregor since Mendes (he is a good wrestler of course) was able to take him down so easily and could have won the last fight with possibly a little bit more preparation and fighting a bit smarter as well. Once this fight goes down to the ground early, I think it could become very bad for McGregor really quick.

Just got to MGM and watched some open workouts but left cuz it was too crowded near where the fighters were.

Notes:

Weidman's legs are so fucking skinny for his frame, looked kinda crazy IRL. I can't believe how clean and crisp and fast shit looks IRL, even just hitting pads. Like any other pro sport, the actual athleticism and movements just look more phenomenal in person. I guess that's obvious but I dunno, it really struck me.

Also, kinda funny cuz there is a big Rodeo event here apparently so you've got a huge contingent of Brazilians, Irishmen, and Southerners.

fukkk missed a bet on aldo at +145 so sad ;(

now it's down to even on bovada and i don't wanna punt anymore.

On December 10 2015 17:39 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On December 10 2015 15:15 TianYuan wrote:   On December 09 2015 23:41 PuertoRican wrote: ^ Luke, Conor, and Jose are dealing with their normal weight cut, while Weidman was 193 lbs the other day and has been working on lowering his weight for this fight so he won't have to deal with having to cut a lot of weight like he usually does. IVs were banned on October 1st, so Weidman thought ahead. I don't think the lack of IV will hurt Rockhold. Conor cuts a lot of weight for his fights, as does Jose, but Conor cuts more, obv. Anyway, Luke's reaction is standard for him during fight-week. Mendes looked bored as fuck on that panel. Don't know if this is accurate but...   fight in weight mighty mouse 140 tj dillashaw 148 jose aldo 161 conor mcgregor 168 rafael dos anjos 174 robbie lawler 190 chris weidman 208 daniel cormier 218 http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f2/c...showpost.php?p=108914321&postcount=29 Yeah, Weidman usually cuts a lot of weight for his fights, but he went on some diet or something awhile back, so he's been extra light for this camp, which means he doesn't have to cut much weight. Conor is doing his normal weight cut afaik.

Yeah I know, I meant for Aldo. His cut seems pretty small now too.

is aldo in excellent shape? if so i fear for connor's skinny legs.

On December 11 2015 08:08 PuertoRican wrote:

the ufc should get this guy to call fights instead of rogan.

i mean i like rogan, but i feel we could get a lot more insight from people who actually have experience fighting in the ufc.

edit: just realized the fight is 2 days away.

has sonnen ever correctly made a prediction? lol
just trollin with whatever random thoughts come to his retarded mind in order to get a bit of attention

whats the deal with conor being all over Ido Portal? Setting up a scapegoat in case he loses?

On December 11 2015 17:48 CamilaPunt wrote: whats the deal with conor being all over Ido Portal? Setting up a scapegoat in case he loses?

what I find funny about the whole thing is that Conor is working so hard on movement and trying to be unpredictable with bizarre flowing constant motion, while Aldo has the same setups for all of his strikes and uses the fact that his movements are all similar to be unpredictable (i.e. can't detect an incoming leg kick cause he doesn't telegraph)

And if Aldo is able to get them leg kicks going Conors movement is gonna go right down the shitter.

Wonder how Conor will look today. He's looked worse and worse for the weigh ins. And with no IV this time.

lol aldo mocking conors silly karate pose.

wow conor looked sooooooooo bad

On December 11 2015 23:37 Floofy wrote: wow conor looked sooooooooo bad

He always does.

On December 11 2015 23:50 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On December 11 2015 23:37 Floofy wrote: wow conor looked sooooooooo bad He always does.

I know but its worst than usual. I usually never notice when someone looks bad. this time, i thought he seemed like a terminal patient.

On December 11 2015 23:54 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On December 11 2015 23:50 Stim_Abuser wrote:   On December 11 2015 23:37 Floofy wrote: wow conor looked sooooooooo bad He always does. I know but its worst than usual. I usually never notice when someone looks bad. this time, i thought he seemed like a terminal patient.

here's pictures from his past weigh ins

damn conor does need to move up to lightweight, I can't imagine it being healthy to keep doing these insane weight cuts then get your head clobbered since he doesn't really avoid shots too well. I hope he does move up soon.

Odds are shifting. Aldo now a slight favorite or even on most sites.

On December 12 2015 00:20 Stim_Abuser wrote: Odds are shifting. Aldo now a slight favorite or even on most sites.

lmao!

Can't wait to get home and watch the weigh-in.

On December 11 2015 08:50 lucky331 wrote: Show nested quote + On December 11 2015 08:08 PuertoRican wrote: the ufc should get this guy to call fights instead of rogan.

He's been doing commentary for wsof and he hasn't been very good

Conor will knock him the fuck out no problem. No roids aldroid

i just rewatched ufc 189 weight in and i disagree with u guys, i think he looked way worse today.

fuck my life i suck at betting
i waited for aldo s coef to go higher since it was 2.5 @ b365 but they re down to even now fuck me

On December 12 2015 01:22 Spitfiree wrote: fuck my life i suck at betting i waited for aldo s coef to go higher since it was 2.5 @ b365 but they re down to even now fuck me

I think conor will even go like +120 tomorow.

Weight in comparison picture between UFC 189 and UFC 194: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CV-7XlhUsAEZKPR.png

On December 10 2015 06:31 Daut wrote: Show nested quote + On December 10 2015 04:50 Floofy wrote: Recently i've mostly been following sober's picks a bit blindly but there's some of his picks i have serious doubt about. Weidman -165 RockHold has never lost to anyone except to a flash KO by super TRT vitor. He even dominated Machida harder than Conor dominated Siver... its saying something imo. The way i see the fight going is.... weidman will press forward, and most likely look like hes winning the striking, not doing any real damage. RockHold will back away and keep his cool, eat a few shots and play it safe. At some point he will probably attempt kicks, which will either inflict damage or get himself taken down. If he is taken down, it won't be an huge deal. He will take some damage, but it won't be like Weidman vs Vitor. Essentially, during this period, Rockhold will be safe, and might catch WeidMan with something big if WeidMan makes a mistake. Eventually, as fight will go on, Weidman will slow down and get more tired. At this point, RockHold will get really dangerous, and probably decimate Weidman whatever way he wants. I actually think 5 round fights gives advantage to RockHold. But the odds got much worse than before. i was really happy about RockHold +150, but now i might consider passing the fight since sober actually thinks Weidman -160 is +EV and i know hes a much better sport better than me. Rockhold +115 isn't that crazy anymore. Nelson +125 I agree with you, if Nelson gets on bottom, hes in trouble. And i think he will get on bottom, because at welterweight pretty much nobody can stop maia from takin you down. Your only hope against maia is to survive early rounds and then beat him once hes tired as hell, a bit like Rory did. I think Nelson won't be able to do it. Imo, Maia is like a gate keeper to the top 5, while Gunnar probably isn't even top 10 yet. I think the odds are the way they are because they think Nelson's BJJ will somehow negate Maia's grappling, and Nelson has the edge standing. One thing i find very interesting is, as a general, the guys who pick RockHold actually respect the guys who pick Weidman, and vice versa. I think most people agree both are really good, and both have a real shot at winning this. On the other hand, Conor vs ALdo's odds are much closer, but it seems like Conor fans are like "LOL EZ MONEY CONORS NEVER LOSING THIS", while aldo fans are the exact opposite. On that fight, most people are either white or black, while ppl are much more grey for the co-main event. 2 things re: weidman vs rockhold. Weidman has NEVER lost. Rockhold has Also, I don't look at the Machida fight and say "rockhold dominated this", i look at it as "rockhold made a bunch of mistakes early, looked very hittable, landed a huge shot that fucked machida up and then he finished him on the ground". Rockhold is a pretty phenomenal grappler, has huge power in a variety of shots, but he is an antiquated striker. he doesnt throw combinations, he looks for one shot at a time, and i dont think his defense is good. meanwhile weidman is just a standard boxer with basic strikes, but he is effective, and has good head movement and defense. I just think he is better than Rockhold at almost everything, and even though Rockhold is super dangerous at everything, I think Weidman is good enough to outclass him in every area, avoid the traps and danger and win. This fight is super similar to Mendes vs Edgar. I think Edgar is just the better fighter and is facing the better athlete who is a bit more dangerous, and my head just tells me that the better fighter is gonna win. The one difference between these fights is that Mendes has more 1 punch KO power than Rockhold and Edgar is more hittable with defensive lapses than Weidman. So my gut tells me that at some point during the fight Mendes might just waste him. But I get less of a feeling of that in this fight. Completely understand why people bet on Rockhold as a dog, the guy is fucking great at everything, I just think he has some holes, Weidman doesnt, and the stuff Rockhold is absolutely best at (finishing on the ground with a sub) he won't be able to take advantage of due to a wrestling disadvantage.

HOPE YOUR RIGHT, myself thinks Rockhold will win

Aldo is now the favourite on bet365.

He looks really good during weigh in also.

I dont understand why people care so much about weigh in. I mean, trying to figure out what will happen based on weigh in looks silly to me. I like seeing what happens there thou

Going to make Mancrush bets
McGregor > Aldo
Nelson > Maia
Rockhold > Weidman



And hopefully the yoga teacher from gta 5 isn't complete bullshit

On December 11 2015 11:09 MiPwnYa wrote: has sonnen ever correctly made a prediction? lol just trollin with whatever random thoughts come to his retarded mind in order to get a bit of attention

kinda feel the same way with rogan. he calls the fights and gives his insights, which are good. but he doesn't have the experience fighting in the ufc making what he says kinda... *can't find a word*... 'fake' maybe...?

he's good at hyping fights though.

surprised to see the odds are shifting to aldo's favor. are the sharks getting in?

Final pre-fight bets:

Straight:
McGregor > Aldo SU -115 $460.00
McGregor > Aldo SU -175 $437.50
McGregor/Aldo u 2.5 Rds O/U 100 $500.00
Weidman > Rockhold SU -135 $1,687.50
Weidman > Rockhold SU -130 $520.00
Weidman > Rockhold SU -165 $412.50
Romero > Souza SU 125 $50.00
Romero wins ITD SU 317 $50.00
Nelson > Maia SU 125 $125.00
Torres > Laibarger SU -265 $530.00
Alexandro Jr. > McGee SU 155 $75.00

Props:
Faber / Saenz Goes 3 Round Distance PROP -140 $140.00
Alves > Covington (SCORECARDS = NO ACTION) PROP -175 $350.00
Covington wins in Rd 3 PROP 1,650 $25.00

Parlays:
Weidman (-165) + McGregor (-175) PL 140 $150.00
Mustafaev (-285) + Holloway (-385) PL -143 $500.00
Covington (-125) + Lee (-450) + Mustafaev (-285) + Holloway (-385) + Faber (-550) PL 342 $250.00
McGregor (-195) + Weidman (-175) + Covington (-125) + Makdessi (-170) + Lee (-450) + Mustafaev (-285) + Holloway (-385) + Faber (-550) + Nelson (115) PL 3,492 $78.80
Not Aldo by Unanimous Decision (-720) + Rockhold/Weidman Starts Rd 2 (-399) + Not Maia Inside the Distance (-428) PL -140 $150.00

geezas your so sure about Conor/Weidman

On December 12 2015 18:29 soberstone wrote: Final pre-fight bets: Straight: McGregor > Aldo SU -115 $460.00 McGregor > Aldo SU -175 $437.50 McGregor/Aldo u 2.5 Rds O/U 100 $500.00 Weidman > Rockhold SU -135 $1,687.50 Weidman > Rockhold SU -130 $520.00 Weidman > Rockhold SU -165 $412.50 Romero > Souza SU 125 $50.00 Romero wins ITD SU 317 $50.00 Nelson > Maia SU 125 $125.00 Torres > Laibarger SU -265 $530.00 Alexandro Jr. > McGee SU 155 $75.00 Props: Faber / Saenz Goes 3 Round Distance PROP -140 $140.00 Alves > Covington (SCORECARDS = NO ACTION) PROP -175 $350.00 Covington wins in Rd 3 PROP 1,650 $25.00 Parlays: Weidman (-165) + McGregor (-175) PL 140 $150.00 Mustafaev (-285) + Holloway (-385) PL -143 $500.00 Covington (-125) + Lee (-450) + Mustafaev (-285) + Holloway (-385) + Faber (-550) PL 342 $250.00 McGregor (-195) + Weidman (-175) + Covington (-125) + Makdessi (-170) + Lee (-450) + Mustafaev (-285) + Holloway (-385) + Faber (-550) + Nelson (115) PL 3,492 $78.80 Not Aldo by Unanimous Decision (-720) + Rockhold/Weidman Starts Rd 2 (-399) + Not Maia Inside the Distance (-428) PL -140 $150.00

question...

wouldn't it make some sense to hedge some of your big parlays that you posted earlier in the thread by replacing Conor with Aldo & Weidman with Rockhold?

fwiw, i copy catted some of your bets posted earlier

On December 12 2015 14:13 Raidern wrote: I dont understand why people care so much about weigh in. I mean, trying to figure out what will happen based on weigh in looks silly to me. I like seeing what happens there thou

Simple, because you can see what type of shape a fighter is in. Like how Ronda looked much chubbier vs Holm. You can see if a guy looks worse than usual, if they've had a rough cut, or if they had a great cut like Aldo has seemed to.

On December 12 2015 14:13 Raidern wrote: I dont understand why people care so much about weigh in. I mean, trying to figure out what will happen based on weigh in looks silly to me. I like seeing what happens there thou

Its especially meaningfull if someone miss weight. Statistic says people who miss weight have much lower win rate. There's also a lot of signs which can help u guess outcomes of fights at weight in (missing weight is most important).

I'm back, bitches!

My bets for this card:

+ Show Spoiler +

whats the deal with everyone betting McGregor, you guys getting good odds or what? I got Jose at -120 and placed a larger than normal bet on that. You guys think thats a bad idea?

Im not betting on mcgregor, im undecided lol

Jose +150, Rockhold +158, Holloway -315 easy life.

ROFL

WOW.......................

Makdessi got robbed! It was clear 2-1 at least for Makdessi, via rounds 2 and 3... Round 1 could've went either way...

What a killer...

Magomed Mustafaev with them body kicks and knees!

Russian baller~

puerto do you have any other stream link that doesn't need registration and doesn't have the AIDS?

On December 13 2015 01:00 whamm! wrote: puerto do you have any other stream link that doesn't need registration and doesn't have the AIDS?

most streams have kind of AIDS but they are harmless its just spammy publicity you just close, those sites dont allow pop-up blocker but it doesnt take longer than 1 minute to close and there is no way they can infect you or anything

Maybe spend more time training than sending out salty tweets

i ve never seen a fighter do a victory lap before

Kevin Lee with the poor striking defense. Getting TKO`ed by Leonardo Santos is laughable, but props to the 35-year-old Brazilian!

On December 13 2015 01:16 Spitfiree wrote: i ve never seen a fighter do a victory lap before

Didn't Aldo do something similar after the first Chad fight?

no idea that was too long ago

a bit of an offtopic: during the Aldo vs McGregor new promo there was some song some of which lyrics were " there s nowhere you can hide behind the eyes " anyone knows which the song is ?

On December 13 2015 01:00 whamm! wrote: puerto do you have any other stream link that doesn't need registration and doesn't have the AIDS?

I'm watching the fights on TV until the PPV starts.

You can find streams at:

http://www.realstreamunited.com/
http://firstrowus1.eu/
http://www.stopstream.tv/
http://zunox.hk/

Easy money on Warrley Alves!

On December 13 2015 01:00 whamm! wrote: puerto do you have any other stream link that doesn't need registration and doesn't have the AIDS?

I'm using this one, works well for me. U might need add block tho

http://livesoccerrg.net/watch/stream1.html

I really don't mind the AiDS that pop up, and the time bomb things. Just one that works even without registration (not willing to give em more than my eyeballs for the ad money lol) Thanks Baal and Puerto

On December 13 2015 01:48 whamm! wrote: I really don't mind the AiDS that pop up, and the time bomb things. Just one that works even without registration (not willing to give em more than my eyeballs for the ad money lol) Thanks Baal and Puerto

I've never seen nor used a website that asked you to register. Popular sites like Vipbox and Firstrow tell you on their website that they offer free links/streams, and that you should never register or pay for any of the streams on their website.

I used ad-block and No Script. They're essential for FireFox users.

yea i can't understand why someone wouldn't have add block. takes like 1 minute to setup.

On December 13 2015 01:57 Floofy wrote: yea i can't understand why someone wouldn't have add block. takes like 1 minute to setup.

Just get the right one : ad block plus. Still kinda get ads but easier.

didn't really think of installing adblock until today haha. ty

many of these sites detect AD-block and wont allow you to use them with it on fwiw


and yeah fuck those sites that want to register, dont go there

what the fuck how do you get a knee to the head and then 10 elbows in a row and not fall like a sack of potatos

not bad not bad

God kevin Lee is garbage what the fuck

Faber looked like shit.

He'd get raped by Dillashaw and Cruz. He just wants the big paydays.

Fucking Kevin Lee all my parlays died
And we have same name fml

faber got lucky that knee connected hard, i had a feeling his opponent would start ripping his legs off ala aldo if he wasn't wobbled by that knee

I didn't expect Holloway vs. Stephens to be a stinker...

dubs in treble ~_~

On December 13 2015 03:37 flounder44 wrote: dubs in treble ~_~

Yeah...

My first NBA bet all season, and the GSW not only can't cover the spread, they lose their first game of the season. Glad it was small, but still sucks.

On December 13 2015 03:49 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On December 13 2015 03:37 flounder44 wrote: dubs in treble ~_~ Yeah... My first NBA bet all season, and the GSW not only can't cover the spread, they lose their first game of the season. Glad it was small, but still sucks.

Same here... parlay dead :D
Go maia!