Daily Fantasy Sports thread - Page 15

ran 2 baseball lineups today:
https://www.fanduel.com/contest/12794395/scoring/lineup/181257891/
https://www.fanduel.com/contest/12800113/scoring/lineup/181007734/

figured out some stuff. wasn't looking at opposing pitcher enough. but basically have to look at all the info. vR vL splits for batters and pitchers, o/u, weather, opposing pitcher strength, fly ball/ground ball/line drive rates, BABIP, ISO, wOBA, and spot in order. a bit more work than NBA, but think I have it down now.


good night for NBA too. ran this: https://www.fanduel.com/contest/12794154/scoring/lineup/181138704/

On May 19 2015 23:07 PuertoRican wrote: My NHL teams for Day 4 of Round 3 of the playoffs: C Ryan Getzlaf C Brad Richards W Alex Killorn W Patrick Maroon W J. Silfverberg D F. Beauchemin D Hampus Lindholm G F. Andersen UTIL Brent Seabrook ---------- C Andrew Cogliano C Derek Stepan W Alex Killorn W Ondrej Palat W J. Silfverberg D Hampus Lindholm D Ryan McDonagh G F. Andersen UTIL Anton Stralman

Well fuck me...

Both of my teams lost in TRIPLE OVERTIME because I had the same goalie on both teams. I racked up a ton of points since many guys on my team got to play 3 extra periods, but I needed my goalie to pull through. Oh well.

On May 20 2015 04:41 Daut wrote: ran 2 baseball lineups today: https://www.fanduel.com/contest/12794395/scoring/lineup/181257891/ https://www.fanduel.com/contest/12800113/scoring/lineup/181007734/ figured out some stuff. wasn't looking at opposing pitcher enough. but basically have to look at all the info. vR vL splits for batters and pitchers, o/u, weather, opposing pitcher strength, fly ball/ground ball/line drive rates, BABIP, ISO, wOBA, and spot in order. a bit more work than NBA, but think I have it down now. good night for NBA too. ran this: https://www.fanduel.com/contest/12794154/scoring/lineup/181138704/

damn, thought NBA was done, hadn't even checked since whenever that last 2-game night was.

super jealous about baseball, going to eventually give it another shot if for no other reason than to clear my deposit bonus in a reasonable timeframe. do you think it's beatable for a similar winrate to basketball?

On May 20 2015 07:17 bigredhoss wrote: Show nested quote + On May 20 2015 04:41 Daut wrote: ran 2 baseball lineups today: https://www.fanduel.com/contest/12794395/scoring/lineup/181257891/ https://www.fanduel.com/contest/12800113/scoring/lineup/181007734/ figured out some stuff. wasn't looking at opposing pitcher enough. but basically have to look at all the info. vR vL splits for batters and pitchers, o/u, weather, opposing pitcher strength, fly ball/ground ball/line drive rates, BABIP, ISO, wOBA, and spot in order. a bit more work than NBA, but think I have it down now. good night for NBA too. ran this: https://www.fanduel.com/contest/12794154/scoring/lineup/181138704/ damn, thought NBA was done, hadn't even checked since whenever that last 2-game night was. super jealous about baseball, going to eventually give it another shot if for no other reason than to clear my deposit bonus in a reasonable timeframe. do you think it's beatable for a similar winrate to basketball?

I'm down ~$1800 in baseball on fanduel, and am not 100% I am a winner so don't be jealous yet. But regardless, I think the possible winrates are much lower. The top guys in baseball seem to cash 50/50s and HU around 57-62%, while I was cashing them >=70% in NBA. Will be happy if I can eke out a >=5% ROI in baseball.

NBA slates are interesting now. They are all 2 day slates with the same exact group of players, and the prices don't adjust much due to being set before the previous game plays, so you can theoretically see a lineup you really like that someone else ran and try to run the same lineup again another night. It won't always work -- for instance, Dwight will come into game 2 less than 100%, but it's always good to have ideas from others.

I'm in the $300k MLB event tonight, since DraftKings sent out a free entry: "Try MLB for $3
If you lose you'll get your $3 back."

I don't know shit about MLB, so most of my team is copied from Daut's recent FD team he posted on the previous page, along with a few other guys who I had to switch since they weren't playing today.


P Wei-Yin Chen
P Tyson Ross
C Russell Martin
1B David Ortiz
2B Neil Walker
3B Josh Donaldson
SS Jhonny Peralta
OF Kole Calhoun
OF C. Granderson
OF Jimmy Paredes

On May 20 2015 16:04 Daut wrote: Show nested quote + On May 20 2015 07:17 bigredhoss wrote:   On May 20 2015 04:41 Daut wrote: ran 2 baseball lineups today: https://www.fanduel.com/contest/12794395/scoring/lineup/181257891/ https://www.fanduel.com/contest/12800113/scoring/lineup/181007734/ figured out some stuff. wasn't looking at opposing pitcher enough. but basically have to look at all the info. vR vL splits for batters and pitchers, o/u, weather, opposing pitcher strength, fly ball/ground ball/line drive rates, BABIP, ISO, wOBA, and spot in order. a bit more work than NBA, but think I have it down now. good night for NBA too. ran this: https://www.fanduel.com/contest/12794154/scoring/lineup/181138704/ damn, thought NBA was done, hadn't even checked since whenever that last 2-game night was. super jealous about baseball, going to eventually give it another shot if for no other reason than to clear my deposit bonus in a reasonable timeframe. do you think it's beatable for a similar winrate to basketball? I'm down ~$1800 in baseball on fanduel, and am not 100% I am a winner so don't be jealous yet. But regardless, I think the possible winrates are much lower. The top guys in baseball seem to cash 50/50s and HU around 57-62%, while I was cashing them >=70% in NBA. Will be happy if I can eke out a >=5% ROI in baseball.

kind of what i suspected =[

do you play MMA DFS? know you're into MMA but never seen you mention it in DFS.

it's too small. not really worth the time. maybe playing HU and 50/50s is ok, but the tournaments are pretty shitty. I'm starting to play a bit of fantasy golf, it's much better than MMA for fantasy.

I'm giving up on MLB. I hit a decent score once, but I'm going to just rule it as blind luck. Ive approached these GPP's with multiple strategies, each day, trying to figure out one that could show promise that may be profitable in the long run.

I know playing for only a little over a month isn't nearly a good enough sample size to know whether your just running badly, or if your strategy is broken - but I think I just need to stop for a bit and maybe learn the game a bit more from a 'fans' perspective?.
All I've done thus far was look @ numbers. I'm pretty confident thats really all is boils down to for the most part, just like anything else.

I didn't really know anything about MLB till I started playing Daily Fantasy and since football season was nowhere near I decided to take a crack at MLB fantasy (knowing basically nothing about it).

That said, I'm really interested to hear some of the theory/game strategy you guys may use to get profits. I'm considering to maybe play some 50/50s until I learn a bit more about it just to see what success I may have there.

I know Daut mentioned about looking at opposing Pitchers, which I have thought about, but can you explain to me why thats important?
The only thing I can think of is that if a good pitcher is going against a not so good pitcher, the not so good pitcher could be throwing alot more in fewer innings, without 'rest?' (if thats actually a thing for pitchers idk) becuase the better pitcher is striking out batters faster, etc?.

Ive also looked @ R v L, RBI, SLG %'s etc, etc.

1 thing I remember that really tilted me lol, was when I think it was Encarnation or something like that, was going against a pitcher who he had batted against like nearly 100 times before, and had roughly 8~ hr's against, and was batting like .700+ got me 0 points that game, and I literally took him in every single line up. Shit like that I have to assume its just unlucky. Idk.

Football, please get here.

https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/6568354?uc=85981906 lets see how this goes.

https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/6577489?uc=86338644

Got em!

On May 23 2015 04:56 Daut wrote: https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/6577489?uc=86338644 Got em!

I took today and tomorrow off from NHL on DK, since this is my first UFC event back to betting in a few months. If I would've played NHL on DK today, I would've gotten owned since the Lightning played like shit.

o sick, nice!

It held! Did well in some other GPPs too, but that was the main one. There was a $300 GPP with $100k to first that I didn't enter because I still think I'm kind of a fish at baseball, and I'm sure my lineup would have won it. Oh well, I'm just glad I am no longer a lifetime loser in MLB.

grats, is that your biggest DFS score so far?

maybe an odd time to bring this up, but any opinions on how long DFS remains relatively profitable? it's clearly big and getting bigger with Disney investing $250million in DK, FD having > $1B valuation, Stars and Yahoo entering the market, etc. but it's also difficult for me to see how 50/50s or H2Hs can stay profitable for long without some major changes. it doesn't seem like that much of a stretch to think that people will figure out how to make lineups that are close enough to optimal that they can't be beaten when factoring in 10% rake. of course that's inevitable in anything like this just like poker, but it feels like it could be a reality in the very near future, at least for NBA 50/50s. i guess GPPs should have a longer lifespan since they can't be 'solved' as easily, maybe there will only be GPPs in the future?

idk just thinking out loud, thoughts?

Yea, biggest DFS score so far. Pretty ironic, play every slate of NBA and crush all season long yet never cash a GPP for 3k. Mash some buttons in a sport I'm unsure if I'm a winner in yet and have a 16k day.

I've asked myself the same question with regards to sustainable profits in DFS. The rake will probably need to be lowered at some point, but for now it makes sense. FD and DK are pumping so much money into growth/advertising that high rake is currently justified. I always wonder when other people will figure out NBA like I have, but I am continuously surprised by how many poor decisions other "good" players make. When you account for recreational players that choose their favorite athletes and pick guys from their home teams, the edge widens. But eventually some of the bad players will quit, more good players will rise up, and either the 50/50 field sizes will need to be raised or the rake will need to be lowered.

GPPs are not a solvable game. I guess it is in theory, but in practice no. Not easy to predict ownership percentages, and optimal strategy shifts wildly based on what they are; the highest EV lineup is very dependent upon what others choose. Simple example I read that stuck with me: Suppose you are playing a game where you have to guess the gender of a randomly chosen child of Antonio Cromartie. He has 12 kids, let's assume 7 are girls and 5 are boys. If you were just playing by yourself, you would guess girl. If you were playing in a 10 man tournament and 7 others chose girl, you would want to choose boy, because now your chance of success exceeds the frequency your choice was picked. So solving GPPs boils down to guessing ownership percentages accurately. But the moment ownership percentages are known (in theory), there is a reaction by players, strategies change, and ownership positions shift. In the simple Cromartie example, an equilibrium exists, but will we ever be able to find one with millions of combinations of possible lineups? And not all players are choosing optimally either, so ownership %s are always at best a guess.

yeah i hope they do lower the rake eventually because i don't really like GPPs (aversion to poker MTTs kind of carried over i guess).

my NBA lineups really sucked shit last night, thanks Harden/Barnes, drawing dead for Sat/Sun. my overall lineup prob wasn't good in retrospect anyway but also some runbad for sure. hopefully Sun/Mon go better.

also finally made a baseball lineup but just entered a random free contest since i have no idea what i'm doing. but my lineup did good scoring 46.25 pts https://www.fanduel.com/contest/12870832/scoring/lineup/182688986/ beginner's luck :s

some crazy scoring last couple nights. i can't tell if i'm a fish for playing Schroder, was there any way to predict he would play 3 minutes?? i guess i made a mistake passing on Dellavedova, it just felt like a weird salary point where i wanted LBJ+TT+Green+Teague+Bazemore, and i had trouble building a lineup around them that a) included Dellavedova b) filled out the salary cap and c) i felt good about, so went with Schroder. still left $500 on the table which is the most i've left since the very beginning when i had no clue what i was doing. still not sure i have a clue some days, but it does seem like the time and effort i put into a lineup any given day makes a noticeable difference. win or lose, the lineups i feel dumb about making afterwards are almost always days where i didn't have much time and just rushed a lineup to get it entered.

anyway none of it ended up mattering today because of Curry going out and all my guys tonight having big games except for Bogut. Used this lineup for all my entries https://www.fanduel.com/contest/12888655/scoring/lineup/183003388/

2nd highest score as far as i can remember, but it was a really high scoring slate across the board. didn't enter anything on DK, and i didn't enter anything for either site on Mon-Tues, gonna lock in the win to end this NBA season.

Nice score Daut.

http://puu.sh/i1ALr/ede596d5d9.jpg



Tonight's MLB lineup's - Going cheap until I start learning more. Any input before game time would be appreciated. GL to those who are in it.

Tonights lineups w/ prices/games
http://puu.sh/i1BcY/65649f273a.png
http://puu.sh/i1BgS/c5b4f18944.png
http://puu.sh/i1Bk4/376316e446.png
http://puu.sh/i1BmG/04c2c00c62.png

Already got rid of the players who aren't playing, will update when I get a chance.

Pfft. Yesterday didnt go well. Best lineup had 144 points. Total Vested - $12 / Returned $7 - Won -$5


Gonna try again today for the early's here are my lineups.

http://puu.sh/i2y1V/a157acd027.jpg
http://puu.sh/i2y3Y/517fd3649c.jpg
http://puu.sh/i2y4v/f81342511f.jpg
http://puu.sh/i2y54/e0f9ad1ff1.jpg


I am clearly terrible @ this. Daut, I noticed you saying you were looking @ alot of variables by choosing pitchers. Although I'm not 'great' at choosing pitchers, I feel confident enough that I can at the very least beat some of the lower buy-in 50/50s. That said, I struggle to even get over 140+points- most of the time I'm sitting around 100-115- pretty consistently. Obviously thats no where near anywhere that I need to be winning anything.

My strategy on picking batters seems to be extremely flawed because I typically only get like 2-3 batters per lineup that do what I expect them to do. The others do nothing. Even pretending that there is no salary cap issues, I still cannot pick batters that do well.

Things I look at//consider when picking hitters:
O/U of game
Pitcher ERA - Other stats (Fastball mph, walks,strikeouts, HRs/9innings) versus Left hand batters/Right hand
I also look @ how (if) the batter has went against said pitcher before and success that was had (AT least x10+ at bats)
Batting Order, for example the COL @ CIN game today (5/27) I thought it would be a good idea to take Cincy batters in all of my lineups due to previous success vs COL starting pitcher. However, the only batter that did well vs COL was the one who had like 11 at bats an w/ a .091 BAA.

Are there other things I should be looking at? In DFS I feel like numbers, and previous history is all we have to go off of, but I'm missing more than I'm hitting. Am I running badly? I dont understand.

I look @ other line ups that do well, and I have no clue on how they pick the players that they pick. I do have to think alot of it has to do with blind luck in these GPPS in order to win them, but I feel like with a decent strategy I should be at least ITM on them.

Im alot more into football, and hopefully making a decent amount of money in that when the time comes, however I feel like without even being a baseball fan that given enough research I should still be able to make money at it. Not the case so far..