Sorry for the long read, but hey, if you're gonna hate on me for trying to offer a reasoned opinion, suck a dick:
• Jones > Cormier -
This fight is awesome and at this moment, if I had to BET on either fighter, it would be on Jones at -165, but I think the line looks pretty proper on this. There are two many unknowns in the dynamic. I want to go over some of the things that I think are noteworthy. We all know the general dynamic, Cormier's wrestling and clinch-game vs Jones reach, length, unorthodox range strikes, etc.
One unknown for DC IMO are his ability to take damage. He looked very poor in the Barnett fight the one time he ate a very hard knee. He turned his head and almost started running away. I can't find a GIF of this but it concerns me and I remember it vividly. One thing we can call a good bet is that both fighters will face adversity in this fight, and while I know Jones handles adversity very well, I don't know about DC. At the same time, that was a long time ago and DC trains at AKA where I'm pretty sure he's become more comfortable taking real damage. Still, in his fights with Mir, Nelson, Cummings, and Henderson, he literally took NO damage. This almost hurts his case in this fight because I HIGHLY doubt he is able to rag-doll Jones for 25 minutes and not eat some tasty strikes from distance and on the way in. I do think he'll have his way if it gets to the clinch. He is just too world class there. I don't care what Jones did to an over-rated Texiara, DC is Cain-V level and there is no one else even within a tier of him once limbs are locked, besides Nurmagomedov (but he's a LW).
Second unknown for DC is his cardio in a tough fight, especially over 25 minutes. Jones' cardio is the most under-rated aspect of his game IMO. He has never tired, even in an absolute war with Gus. While I don't THINK DC will tire badly over 25 minutes, there is no reason for me to think he will be able to 'round-win' 4 and 5 in the way that he may be able to do for 1 and 2.
The only real unknown for Jones here is just how good he is at this point. His fight against Gus showed a decline, and that is presumably due to underestimation (by his own admission/excuse). Who knows if this is true, but prior to that fight, he looked unbeatable, and that fight changed my perception. Still, the success Gus had little to do with what Cormier will need to do, as they're strengths couldn't be more different. At the same time, Jones's ability to handle a close fight and a challenge actually raise his chances in a fight like this.
I give the mental edge to Jones, but I don't advise or expect anyone to take my word for it. I just think in the fight game, being cocky to the point of being a dick is always a strength. Cormier, it seems to me, is trying to exude confidence in interviews and trying to do a lot of positive self-reinforcement, but I'm not buying it. I think he has doubts, and I think he is putting way to much pressure on himself. For a guy who's cardio over 25 is an unknown, and who is going to rely on grappling and closing distance - the most energy sucking aspects of the sport - I'm thinking the element of extreme mental excitement and pressure has an adrenaline dump written all over it, and this may very well lose this thing for him.
I don't see Cormier ragdolling a highly trained, prime JBJ for more than 2 rounds. I don't see him knocking Jones out, and I don't see him subbing him. Therefore, his path to victory, IMO, is feigning the wrestling early, closing the distance, dirty boxing and landing hard shots (which Cormier does have heavy hands), with the occasional takedown, for the first two rounds, than putting the wrestling down in full force for the 3rd and 4th, and simply surviving the 5th. This would be my gameplan if I was DC. I think it would be much more executable if he had a better kicking arsenal (he's got the power and dexterity to throw some nice high kicks which he's shown every now and then, but I think something that no-one has done with Jones besides Gus a little bit is some well-placed leg kicks to those twigs). If he's trained hard and added some nifty calf and leg kicks into his arsenal (unlikely), especially since he doesn't need to worry about being taken down, it would go a long way in eeking out some early rounds. If he doesn't fight perfectly, I don't see him winning. This is weird, considering I'd favor him over anyone else in the division even higher than I'd favor Jones over said folks (Gus 2, Rumble, etc.)
• Jury - Cerrone - I think this is a pickem and we may get a new contender here, and I really like the line on Jury. Cerrone can't afford the slow start. I need to re-watch Jury's fights, but I think he has a lot of paths to victory here, they all involve getting some well-time takedowns, which he is definitely capable of getting. I would pick Jury outright, but I've never seen him have to deal with anyone who kicks like Cowboy. Still, I think he catches some kicks, can avoid the subs from on top, despite Cerrone's amazing guard, and can hang in the striking department enough to land some big shots early (which Rican touches on about Cerrone's tendency to always take big shots early). I think Jury is just good and well-rounded enough to beat almost anyone except a Pettis or Khabib on any given night.
• Marquardt > Tavarez - This all depends on where Nate is athletically at this point, because he is an infinitely better MMA fighter than Brad Tavarez. Tavarez is nothing special. Marquardt has beaten far better people and can be a brutal finisher if he smells blood, and Tavarez's chin got exposed in his last fight vs Boetsch. I like the line on Marquardt, and the only trepidation is that he comes out and looks like guy who needs his TRT back. Still, he looked good vs Te Huna post TRT and I think MW is clearly a better fit for him.
• Horiguchi > Gaudinot - Not even close, really wish the line was closer. Before the odds opened, I was bragging in my inner monologue about how I was gonna throw a -350 Horiguchi into a parlay, and here he is at -600+. Fuck it, can't touch it at that rate, but I do like Horiguchi ITD at +100. For a guy who is a very hard hitter and blood-smelling killer, to be a -650 favorite and only +100 to finish ITD doesn't add up for me, even for the Flyweight class.
• Lombard > Burkman - Showcase fight. Burkman is crafty and well-rounded, and going to get starched. I love Hector ITD at -110, because I think he is getting the shit treatment from the UFC for letting Shields survive, and will look to make a statement in a stacked weightclass where even golden-boy Rory is getting fucked out of a title shot.
• Castillo > Felder - Don't shit about the undefeated Felder, but I doubt he can handle a high-level American wrestler who hits as hard as Castillo does. Castillo's chin is wishy-washy and I guess Felder hits hard, but if Fergusson and Barboza didn't finish Danny, I doubt Felder will, and that's his only chance of winning. Disclaimer, again, I haven't watched Felder's fights, so maybe he's a new stud to add to this stacked as fuck division, and the odds are closer than expected so maybe he's got some pep to him, but I'll have to see something pretty eye-popping in his footage against lesser competition to change my mind on this one - most importantly rock solid TDD.
• Garbrandt - Brimage - Dunno
• Jordan > Cannonier - Jordan is shit, but if Cannonier is a 7-0 Heavyweight with split decisions and no picture on Sherdog's fight finder, I doubt he's capable of beating Jordan a majority of the time. The shitty little wrecking ball will probably just make it an ugly, boring fight before tkoing him in the late first / early second round. That's just what he does. He's not good, but he's good enough to beat not UFC level Heavyweights on a consistant basis, and the UFC is just grasping for straws at this point.
• Dunham > Damm - Damm has nothing dangerous to offer against a good grappler in Dunham. That said, Dunham has been a disappointment against top tier lightweights. He's a gatekeeper but clearly the UFC wants to keep him around if this is who they are giving him on a 3-fight losing streak.
• Akhmedov vs. Nilsson (dunno)
• Dufresne > Reneau - Disclaimer - No nothing about Reneau. Dufresne probably shouldve won her debut and most say she got robbed, but something was seriously wrong with her and it was a terrible performance. I was calling her the next new contender for Women's BM and she totally shit the bed. Still, I'm gonna have hope and chalk it up to jitters and short-notice. If you watch Dufresne's first 3 pro-fights, she looks like an absolute killer, and I think she may come out and instantly put herself on the map as someone to watch in 2015 to become a contender. If she shits the bed again in this fight, I'll abandon ship, but for now, I'm gonna try and look smart and stick with my initial feelings on her.
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Netherlands. Dec 24 2014 12:45. Posts 7080
