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[nl100]JKs turned monster draw

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the cleaner   Germany. Mar 10 2012 16:58. Posts 3014

Submitted by : the cleaner

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** Poker Stars
$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, March 10, 08:10:43 ET 2012
Table Botein IV Real Money
Seat 6 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 $102.64 USD - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 8, AF: 3.8, Hands: 2295
Seat 2: Player2 $134.59 USD - VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 0.7, Hands: 81
Seat 4: Player4 $88.04 USD - VPIP: 37, PFR: 10, 3B: 3, AF: 1.8, Hands: 385
Seat 5: Hero $120.50 USD - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 9, AF: 3.1, Hands: 852020
Seat 6: Player6 $89.45 USD - VPIP: 23, PFR: 22, 3B: 6, AF: 6.3, Hands: 283
Player1 posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
Player2 posts big blind [$1.00 USD].

Holecards
Dealt to Hero [JdKd ]
Player4 folds
Hero raises [$3.00 USD]
Player6 folds
Player1 raises [$9.50 USD]
Player2 folds
Hero calls [$7.00 USD]

Flop (Pot : $20.50)

   Tc3dQs
Player1 bets [$13.00 USD]
Hero calls [$13.00 USD]

Turn (Pot : $46.50)

   Tc3dQs6d
Player1 bets [$28.00 USD]

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there are no facts only interpretations 

the cleaner   Germany. Mar 10 2012 10:02. Posts 3014

standard shove, yea?

there are no facts only interpretations 

handbanana21   United States. Mar 10 2012 11:05. Posts 3037

yeap


lebowski   Greece. Mar 10 2012 12:37. Posts 9205

so much equity

new shit has come to light... a-and... shit! man... 

waga   United Kingdom. Mar 10 2012 12:52. Posts 2375

I've got the feeling that he will fold his bluffy hands on the river and not fold if we hit.
So I just call.


kingpowa   France. Mar 10 2012 14:32. Posts 1525


  On March 10 2012 11:52 waga wrote:
I've got the feeling that he will fold his bluffy hands on the river and not fold if we hit.
So I just call.


you shove every river card if he checks ?
what if he bets a brick (he may be doing this with his bluffs) ?

sorry for shitty english. 

waga   United Kingdom. Mar 10 2012 14:45. Posts 2375

Yes and I don't think so.
Imo he will not 3barrel bluff this booard , but it's a good board to 2Barrel
I could be wrong tho

(edit : I probably check or fold a K river)

 Last edit: 10/03/2012 14:46

barbieman   Sweden. Mar 10 2012 15:26. Posts 2132

why is it a good board to double barrel? seems like a bad board to double barrel to me. We have KQ,AQ, JTs-ATs, QJs or oesd pretty much always.

Yes, shove.


waga   United Kingdom. Mar 10 2012 16:10. Posts 2375

If it's not a good board to 2 barrel ,then when he does, he should call all his range.
What's the point to shove when we've got no FE and an easy decision river ?

I mean all the hands he fold to a shove are the hands that will probably c/f river.


the cleaner   Germany. Mar 10 2012 16:15. Posts 3014

waga, i think we have a lot of FE on this board, and it would suck if turn goes ch/ch and we loose to AK or AJ type of hands. Also he could be folding hands like KT or JT/T9 or 99 to our turn shove.

there are no facts only interpretationsLast edit: 10/03/2012 16:17

waga   United Kingdom. Mar 10 2012 16:20. Posts 2375

hands he c/f river imo

my point is :
all the hands he 2barrel with lik AJ AK KJ AT JT 99 JJ etc will probably c/f river. (you represent a lot of strenght when you call 2 streets) and you've got an easy decision if he bet / good FE if he check.
He never fold AA KK AQ KQ obv ...


edit : If he shove river hands like AK AJ AT etc , then yes I prefer a shove obviously , but I'm quite confident he c/f a lot those hands.

 Last edit: 10/03/2012 16:24

barbieman   Sweden. Mar 10 2012 16:22. Posts 2132

We have no idea if he will c/f river with those hands. We have FE, it's just not a good board to double barrel with complete air.


Twisted    Netherlands. Mar 10 2012 17:46. Posts 10422

Don't think he'll bet/fold a lot to be honest. By calling you're never making a mistake here because you get fine odds to draw so it's +EV always to call here. You don't even need to make any money on the river if you hit.

Then again shoving won't be terrible I guess. He could have some hands like AK/AJ/JK/AT that he might bet/fold the turn with so I guess there is some fold equity.


Daut    United States. Mar 10 2012 23:24. Posts 8955


  On March 10 2012 16:46 Twisted wrote:
Don't think he'll bet/fold a lot to be honest. By calling you're never making a mistake here because you get fine odds to draw so it's +EV always to call here. You don't even need to make any money on the river if you hit.

Then again shoving won't be terrible I guess. He could have some hands like AK/AJ/JK/AT that he might bet/fold the turn with so I guess there is some fold equity.



agree. one of those spots where i really dont think it matters a whole lot what you do, both plays seem reasonable/fine. i dont even know what i do more often. probably just shove over guys that 2 barrel a high percentage and call vs those who dont

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, DautLast edit: 10/03/2012 23:31

EvilSky    Czech Republic. Mar 11 2012 09:32. Posts 8915

Yea if you know he is never bluffing there you should obv call but if you think you have some FE (not a lot is needed given our raw equity) you should ship.


the cleaner   Germany. Mar 11 2012 13:05. Posts 3014

thanks guys

there are no facts only interpretations 

YoMeR   United States. Mar 14 2012 15:32. Posts 12435

I'm pretty sure if he only folds like 15% of the time here this is an ez ship.

that said if that 15% only includes his air balls then i might tend to flat more. If he snaps most of his value range then call is probably better since well...this guy ain't folding teh queen

eZ Life. 

phexac   United States. Mar 16 2012 09:00. Posts 2563

Yeah this is definitely a spot where you make the play based on what you think makes you more money from this particular player.

Nitting it up since 2006 

Twisted    Netherlands. Mar 16 2012 13:56. Posts 10422


  On March 16 2012 08:00 phexac wrote:
Yeah this is definitely a spot where you make the play based on what you think makes you more money from this particular player.



LOL


TalentedTom    Canada. Mar 16 2012 16:39. Posts 20070


  On March 16 2012 08:00 phexac wrote:
Yeah this is definitely a spot where you make the play based on what you think makes you more money from this particular player.



brilliant

Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light not our darkness that most frightens us and as we let our own lights shine we unconsciously give other people permision to do the same 

Minsk   United States. Mar 16 2012 18:22. Posts 1558

lol


gazavat   Great Britain. May 05 2012 07:15. Posts 59

Call is the better EV option in most cases, but both are +EV. Here is a detailed CREV/STOXEV analysis why:

CREV/STOXEV analysis

Feel free to point out mistakes or ask questions.

Apply for free coaching. Check my blog for details.Last edit: 06/05/2012 16:18

gazavat   Great Britain. May 05 2012 07:18. Posts 59

double post

Apply for free coaching. Check my blog for details.Last edit: 05/05/2012 07:19

TianYuan    Korea (South). May 05 2012 08:34. Posts 6817

Says its a private video?

Hm.. Off-suite socks.. 

Achoo   Canada. May 05 2012 16:06. Posts 1454


  On March 16 2012 08:00 phexac wrote:
Yeah this is definitely a spot where you make the play based on what you think makes you more money from this particular player.



*kaching*
A definition of poker has been found.

Odds are exactly 50%: it either happens or not 

gazavat   Great Britain. May 05 2012 17:48. Posts 59


  On May 05 2012 07:34 TianYuan wrote:
Says its a private video?



Apologies, Vimeo is very weird. I keep making it public and saving, but it keeps becoming private..Hopefully it stays public now..

Apply for free coaching. Check my blog for details. 

mnj   United States. May 06 2012 03:18. Posts 3848

pretty cool stuff


Minsk   United States. May 06 2012 13:14. Posts 1558

yeah its a neat program, thanks for video,
think it needs a few sets of realistic river assumptions to be meaningful


ShLiM   United Kingdom. May 06 2012 14:13. Posts 940

it is still private for me lol
maybe ur turning it public for certain amount of time?

Seat 5: patatino showed [Qd 2d] and won ($609,730) with a pair of Twos 

gazavat   Great Britain. May 06 2012 16:20. Posts 59


  On May 06 2012 13:13 ShLiM wrote:
it is still private for me lol
maybe ur turning it public for certain amount of time?



There seems to be an issue with Vimeo, e-mailed suppport. In the meantime use the following youtube link and make sure to watch in HD:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYzdTrxSPLw

Apply for free coaching. Check my blog for details. 

gazavat   Great Britain. May 06 2012 16:54. Posts 59


  On May 06 2012 12:14 Minsk wrote:
yeah its a neat program, thanks for video,
think it needs a few sets of realistic river assumptions to be meaningful



You can set up scenarios for different river cards, but that will complicate the analysis and will take much more time to setup. If you use the program on a regular basis, you will know that often you have to make approximations and you do not always need a precise EV number. More often than not having a general trend will be enough to give you an idea how to react in different situations based on variables and conditions. Doing quick, but regular hand reviews with CREV is much better than spending too much time on 1 hand and doing it very infrequently.

I still believe the analysis to be meaningful. Although the river part of the tree might seem very simplistic, in fact, it covers good ground. Let me clarify the river part as I did not cover it in much detail in the video:
The main assumptions are that Hero will never bluff if villain checks and that villain always checks unless he has TP or better. However, when villain checks missed AJ and AK and Hero checks back then villain always wins vs KdJd. This is the equivalent of villain always bluffing with these hands and us folding unless we have the nuts. In the case of villain having KJ miss and river going check+check then it is split pot, which roughly similar to bluffing half the time or less with this hand. Only 9d8d loses when checking river.

Overall, you can see that the general trend is that Hero can only improve his EV if we spend more time and tweak the river scenarios. Closer to reality, villain will not have such high bluffing frequencies on the river and he will lose the hand certain percentage of the time when he checks river as Hero bluffs. Therefore, the turn call scenario will become even more +EV, which will simply reaffirm that calling is the better choice on the turn.



Apply for free coaching. Check my blog for details.Last edit: 06/05/2012 16:57

TheTrees   United States. May 07 2012 07:52. Posts 1592


  On March 10 2012 16:46 Twisted wrote:
Don't think he'll bet/fold a lot to be honest. By calling you're never making a mistake here because you get fine odds to draw so it's +EV always to call here. You don't even need to make any money on the river if you hit.

Then again shoving won't be terrible I guess. He could have some hands like AK/AJ/JK/AT that he might bet/fold the turn with so I guess there is some fold equity.




What's your move if this is a newer villain and you barely have any reads on him?


 



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