Sports Betting Thread - Page 10

NBB, good to have you on board!

my picks for tonight -

CHA +4.5

going against the tide here so I think I owe an explanation. I feel as though the public is overreacting a bit to CHA terrible loss vs the Nets, and the Cavs always get a lot of public money. The Sag ratings say that CHA should be +3.58 and the line is almost a full point higher mainly due to those two factors. Add to that Cle is playing a back to back, on the road and coming off a tough overtime loss where LBJ played 47 minutes. I also like jamison, NBB knows that since I traded for him in our 2+2 league. But he has actually been shooting horribly the past few weeks and I'm a strong believer in the theory is that it takes time for new players to adjust to an offense and gel. Most importantly, I think CHA matches up well against CLE as evidenced by the fact that CHA has actually won their past two games against the Cavs including a win @ Quicken Loans Arena. I usually play the moneyline but I figure that the Cavs will likely be able to eek out a close win but with their tired legs and with CHA being so tough at home, I think it will be a close game so I like CHA to cover.

CHI ML -105

Sag ratings say that CHI should be -4.06 while the actual spread is -1 so the difference is huge. Noah's injury might be worth a point and Salmons being trade is in my opinion a non factor. There isn't anything special about the Bulls away record or the Wolves home record, or with injuries or recent performance to justify such a disparity. I'd rather play the moneyline @ matchbook for a better price than playing -1 at other books.

TOR -2

Sag ratings say that TOR should be -8.5 while the actual spread is -2. Biggest disparity of the night. Toronto is relatively weak on the road and NJ looked pretty good in their win vs CHA. Still, NJ will need to win a couple more before I can ignore such a big disparity.

MEM -6.5

I really regretted not riding my favorite horse the other night when they were big dogs in TOR. MEM has a good offensive team with blowout potential, plays well at home and with Wade out, Miami's only offensive weapons are an inconsistent Beasley and O'Neal. I see good potential for either a big memphis scoring night or clunker from Miami, hopefully both will happen.

4 units each on CHA and MEM and going all out with aggro bankroll management and putting down a whopping 5 units on CHI and TOR.

I like the same picks as Tenbagger, though the numbers I have looked at point at Charlotte, I'm going to lay off that one. The others I agree with.

okay okay, I bought in and jumping in with Tenbagger.

Thanks for providing all the analysis and sharing your picks, lets hope we make some money

toronto is a goodf pick but i refuse to take the pricks after their performance vs memphis cost me big in similar spot

Head up to everyone:

Mehmet Okur is out for tonight's game vs the Warrors and Maggette and Monta Ellis have been projected to start now for tonight's game. Probably the reason for the 1 point swing.

Still like Jazz ML but obviously be mindful of the star players returning.

added

NO -160
SA -146

both for 3 units.

also, covered a portion of my position on the TOR game so I have only 2 units on that game. That line makes a lot more sense now that I realize bosh is out.

tenbagger

what is 1 unit for u if i can ask? if u dont wanna say then PM or msn me!

one hundred

my standard bet size these days is 400.

nice picks tb lets run it, i bought a new samsung LED 55 incher above my computer so i can play SC2/poker while sweating bets ;D

One site reporting the public's hitting Toronto at a 4-1 rate. Other popular public picks were New Orleans, Chicago, Cleveland, San Antonio, and Denver (public taking all of these teams at a 73%-or-better rate). Kind of scary, though, because if you wanna fade the public, you gotta take some pretty crappy teams.

i jumped on the san anton and a small one on raptors at last minute

guess Memphis was a bad pick

On February 19 2010 20:06 sniderstyle wrote: guess Memphis was a bad pick

Have them big tonight. Hope they at least cover ML. sigh

omg bobcats omgomgogmogm raptors

I'm thinking about taking Celtics ML, dumb?

tenbagger rocks, hes so good fuck all the hater (no haters yet, but incase they wanna pop out fuck off)

On February 19 2010 20:23 sniderstyle wrote: I'm thinking about taking Celtics ML, dumb?

Yeah, I was thinking about taking them again on the moneyline, too. If Roy doesn't play I like their chances.

weee ship 3-0 so far with memphis tied. Was leaning toward Toronto and Chicago but Tenbagger solidified them. Good call on Charlotte too, wasn't sure which way to go there.

good picks, went 4/5 today

fucking memphis was horrible. that zone totally owned them in the second half. other than that, was a pretty good night. 4-2 for a pretty decent profit.

I'm feeling a bit of pressure as it seems that a few people are tailing me now. I hesitated a bit about posting that CHA bet since it looked like everyone was taking CLE and there was a good chance that I'd look foolish there but I couldn't hold back on you guys. Turns out that Jamison made my prediction look pretty good.