Sports Betting Thread - Page 8

On February 17 2010 18:04 RaiNKhAN wrote: tenbagger dont u mean +4.5 and +120 for the PHO/chicago games

yes, my bad that is correct

timberwolves/wizards game was sooo close to under dam

rofl rockets up by 33, awesome pick tenbagger

On February 17 2010 20:29 RaiNKhAN wrote: timberwolves/wizards game was sooo close to under dam

yeah goddamn mike miller 5 for 5 from 3 and a career high from blatche and we were still close to getting the under.

good start to the night, just need the phoenix dallas game to pan out. btw khan, you tail my picks tonight?

i didnt tail the dallas under b/c i have to pay vig if i do

but yea everything else I did

I did as well

i hate the raptors

go phoenix

damnit, oh well still up even if my last bet loses too

damn, 3-2 for the night for a small profit.

went 2-2 with your picks tonight, didnt do the uDAL/PHO tho, overall went 3-4 tonight made tiny profit b/c of houston ownage ;D

always feels so good to win a moneyline bet of +200 or higher

what were your other bets tonight khan?

2-1 again, can't complain. Solid lean with WVU, but didn't pull the trigger. It's hard to lose when much better teams are only 6 point favorites vs the Clippers. Tomorrow will be exciting with Cavs v Nuggets and Lakers v Celtics especially if there are more moves tomorrow. Hopefully Jamison and Natedogg are playing tomorrow. The college bball slate has a great game in Cuse at GTown. I'll post some thoughts later.

took oklahoma/colorado under 146.5 , under missouri/texas 153, UNLV (my city sucks) -4 vs Utah U, went 1-2 in college

tenbagger mind posting your analysis behind the minnesota/wizards game? my friend is curious

I made a rough database of every game score for the year and I use those numbers as a base for my over/under picks and then I try and incorporate other variables.

I'm not completely sure if this is correct and I would love to do a regression to see if my hunch is correct. Basically my theory is that the past 10 games are a good cutoff. Shorter than that and the sample size is too small. Longer than that and I believe it incorporates data that is not as relevant since the skill of teams will adjust over the course of the season. I don't ignore data from 11 games ago or from the start of the season altogether, I just weight them less since I believe they are not as good an indicator. I know 10 is an arbitrary number but you have to draw the line somewhere. Also, I feel as though my memory of games that I've watched fades away almost completely after 10 games so it's nice to have some game observations fresh in your mind to go with the data.

If you take the game totals of all wash/min games over the past 10 days, the average over/under line would be 199.4. I know this doesn't incorporate strength of schedule and my newb model is not strong enough yet to incorporate variables as simple as this, let alone more complex variables. But I take it with a grain of salt and I look at each game in the log to get a mental picture of the strength of competition. I also look at the past 3 games for an even shorter term trend and the over/under there is even lower at 192.5. Min had averaged 91 points per game and Wash had averaged 89 points per game over the past 3 games so both teams have been struggling to put up points.

I also noticed that a big factor pushing up Minny's game over/under lines were some obscene scores put up by their opposition. But a further examination of those outliers included a triple OT 114-120 game vs houston. Memphis and NY, both high scoring teams both had 130+ point games, something that Washington is completely incapable of achieving. If you look at Washington's logs, the one outlier was a double OT game vs Chicago.

So the conclusion I came to was that these teams were both really struggling offensively over the past 3 games @ around 90 points per game, both teams point totals were trending downward over the past 10 games and the recent game totals were skewed in part by freak occurences in the form of triple and double overtime games. Add to that the fact that Wash had just traded butler and needed to incorporate newcomers into their offense and I thought the odds were good for the under@ 204.

that's a great explanation and I like the model you use it seems both practical and mathematically sound. my buddy was the one who was curious, and u know ill blindly follow your picks till u lose like 10 in a row LOL

im eagerly awaiting tomorrow's lineup so i can bet the max button

the nba games tomorrow don't look easy to pick. There is a lot of dissention on the boards in the Den/Cle game regard to the spread -6 and the o/u of 206. The better posters seem to like Cle and under tho. I am uncertain.

In college, I like St. Mary's -7.5 at San Diego. St. Mary's is a much better team with San Diego playing poorly recently. i really want to take Wisconsin +1 at Minnesota. They don't play much on the road and Minnesota is not good at home either. Wisconsin may be getting Jon Leuer back as well.

yeah I got

St.Marys ML and -7.5
Syracuse +2
La Salle +15
Portland U -10.5
Stanford +4