Sports Betting Thread - Page 12

Haha. I had 4 unitsvon utah and they were down by 25. Epic comeback

that was like the most insane comeback ive ever seen

yeah sick Utah I had 1 unit on them
3 units memphis ML (ty Tenbagger)
1/2 unit okalahoma over
1 unit arizona state
4 units sweden prop be tto win their division
3 units russia prop bet to win their division
1/2 unit marquette

On February 21 2010 13:17 Jamie217 wrote: What a great night of hockey coming up.. I took Finland in a pickem over sweden (3U) L Finland/Sweden U 5.5 (3U) W Russia -155 (2U) W NBA Boston/Denver U 198 (4U) L Kinda late on the NCAA so all I have is Arizona St -2 (2U) W

I also took Utah last minute and went to bed expecting to lose ahahah whatta crazy comeback

5U profit for the night

tonight's bets

IND/DAL u210

All the numbers that I have looked at point to a much lower line. I know Granger coming back healthy for the Pacers improves their offense, as evidenced by the 125 output in Indy's last game. However, Granger and the Indy offense in general are hit or miss. In the past 10 games they have had 73 and 81 point games along with 125 and 130 point games.

For Dallas, the point totals, especially on defense have changed dramatically after the acquisitions of Butler and Haywood. Take the last 10 games, the first 6 pre trade and the last 4 post trade. The first 6 had Dallas giving up over 100 in all 6 games for an average points allowed of 113.3. The last 4 games with Butler and Haywood, Dallas has yet to give up over 100 with an average per game of 93. Dallas has taken a more defensive approach and slowed down the tempo a bit, and the numbers clearly show that change in philosophy. 5 units

WASH ML +120

I think the Wizards are really underrated right now. In the past 4 games since the big trade, they have wins over MIN and DEN, a 2 point loss @ CHA and 5 point loss @ TOR where they were in the lead for a good part of the 4th quarter. The sag ratings say the spread should be .55 and considering the recent play from WASH, I'd say the fair line is closer to PK. Everyone is picking the bulls tonight, it's the highest consensus right now on covers but I'm gonna go against conventional wisdom here. 4 units

UTAH ML -185

Only gonna bet 1 unit on this game. I don't think it's a great line but I don't see anything else that I really like tonight and the bet is small enough so that I don't feel too bad about being undisciplined and playing superstitions.

I have 4 units Utah ML
3 Units Davidson ML

didnt really liek the games today

1 unit Swiss vs Belarus ML tomorrow

Hmm I kinda like Chicago. I may lay off the game tonight in yet another underwhelming card of games. I do like Uconn 2.5 vs WVU tonight. The public is pounding the hell outta WVU. This is game is similar to the traps where the public sees a ranked team as a small favorite at an unranked team and loves it. Uconn is playing very well recently, with 2 big road wins and they have put up some good home wins as well earlier in the season. WVU is playing pretty well, but is not a good road team at all.

Uconn +2.5

Edit: Turns out they are playing at the XL center tonight, where they are NOT so good. I don't think this will make a huge difference, but for me, it may become a no play.

NY-Milwaukee over 105 1st half. Seems like no Granger in the Ind-Dallas game (total is dropping, was at 210, now it's 207 or less), Clippers on the moneyline might be worth a shot with Baron Davis back in the lineup.

im stayuing away from o/u i suck balls haha

ACDAWG - yeah im staying away from that one and the Chicago one for reasons u mentioned

On February 22 2010 13:37 acdawg712 wrote: Hmm I kinda like Chicago. I may lay off the game tonight in yet another underwhelming card of games. I do like Uconn 2.5 vs WVU tonight. The public is pounding the hell outta WVU. This is game is similar to the traps where the public sees a ranked team as a small favorite at an unranked team and loves it. Uconn is playing very well recently, with 2 big road wins and they have put up some good home wins as well earlier in the season. WVU is playing pretty well, but is not a good road team at all. Uconn +2.5 Edit: Turns out they are playing at the XL center tonight, where they are NOT so good. I don't think this will make a huge difference, but for me, it may become a no play.

I think the Huskies might win this one but they are usually quite bad in the 1st half. I'm taking a small piece of West Virginia -1 or -1 1/2 in the 1st half.

big day for me lol

bobcats cover the over by half a point LOL

good day yesterday for me as well. I'm really happy about yesterday's bets because I feel all my reads were spot on. I got a bit lucky with Granger out but Josh Howard got injured early in the WASH game, and the Wizards still outplayed the Bulls so I'd say the luck factor evens out.

My bets for today:

SAC ML -125

I have the fair line at -3.5 for the Kings while the line is actually at -2.5 so that should be a point of profit. I considered taking the spread but the moneyline is actually a better value for this bet. With home court worth 3 points, the line has been set to reflect that DET is a slightly better team since they have a better record but Sag ratings say otherwise. A deeper look shows Detroit is 26th so far in terms of strength of schedule while Sac is 2nd so despite the fact that DET has a better record, SAC is actually the stronger team. 4 units

GS ML -105

Similar line of thinking with the game above. Fair line is -2.5 so there is a point and a half of profit here. Sixers seem to be consistently overvalued imo. Big market team with marquee names, but poorly coached and their strength of schedule being 29 out of 30 makes their weak 21-34 record worse than it actually is. GS has 6th hardest strength of schedule so far so the difference between the 21-34 record of philly and the 16-39 record of GS is actually fairly minimal. 4 units

MEM

+5
+186

Instead of betting 4 units on the spread, I'm gonna split it and put 2 on the spread and ML. Everyone is betting the Lakers and I think that is pushing the line up to the point where the MEM line is a good value. I've had some good luck recently with my against the consensus picks and I hope it continues tonight.

I have Sactown -2.5 vs Detroit I feel both teams are relatively equal and with Sacramento's home record better and Detroit's road record worse than their overall records (standard), and with Sacramento's recent win in Detroit, they are the pick. 3u

Illinois +3 at Michigan. Illinois is 0-9 ATS at Michigan. 18-2 home team has covered the spread int he series. Who cares. Illinois is the better team, with losses at great teams in Purdue and Ohio st, have lowered the line more than it should. Michigan is woefully inconsistent, having lost to Penn State and Northwestern at home. I watch the Big 10 the most, as I go to Michigan, so I have a decent amount of knowledge, but the Big 10 is hard to cap, so beware of this one. 2u

Syracuse -8.5 vs Providence. The spread is a bit big, but Providence is terrible overall and no better at home, losing by DD to a lot teams in the Big East, not just the top teams. Syracuse is a very good team, blowing out many a team this year. They are much too talented for the Friars to handle. 3u

While it is true that sacramento has an even better record at home than a typical home court advantage would suggest AND detroit is weaker on the road, keep in mind that the sample size is of 25ish games is really small. There have been studies done that try to see if certain home courts have a greater advantage than others and the evidence for NBA games suggests that home court advantage is a relatively stable variable and that certain teams that perform better than expected in one year rarely carry that advantage over to subsequent years. However, it has been established that NCAA basketball has a greater home court advantage than NBA and in baseball, Coors Field has shown to be the one stadium that consistently rates a higher home advantage over the rest of the league.

As a general rule of thumb, home court should be worth a little over 3 points against the spread meaning if two identical teams were playing, the home team should be -3 and the road team should be +3. In terms of winning percentage, if two teams of identical strenght were to play, the home team can be expected to win a little bit under 60% of the time. I also discount certain historical stats. For example, prior to last night, Atlanta had not won in Utah since 1993. However, the fact that Karl Malone beat Dominque Wilkins 15 years ago has absolutely zero effect on the game today.

I mean I'm not disagreeing with at all, in fact I like Sacramento as well. I just wanted to mention those things regarding home court advantage.

Czech Republic/Latvia (U 6.5) -135 2 units
Miami Heat (-7) 3 units
Golden State Warriors -101 4 units
Memphis Grizzlies (+5) 2 units
Sacramento Kings -135 4 units
New Mexico -320 5 units


and I already lost Switzerland vs Belarus for the game because it went into overtime :/

LETS DO THIS

is hoyt corkins a fish khan?

man, I should have waited until closer to tipoff to place the bets on mem and GS. Should have known the consensus on those picks were the opposite team and the lines would move.

kobe ugh

nice calls on the NCAA games acdawg. gonna have to start tailing your NCAA picks. Sadly, looks like we might as well grade the sacramento game a loss. Things looked so good at the start and kobe started the downfall.