Poker: Skill or Luck?

I have been pondering this question lately, I am not on any particular side of the fence. Personally, in my poker career I have finished about even, maybe $400ish offset over the past 3 years.

Can you spread your opinion on the matter? Also, give an estimate of how much you've won overall if your a winning player, and how much you've lost if vice versa. Please be honest or don't even reply to this thread.

Shane

LUCK

posting this on a poker forum will only give you one answer.

and you know what that is.

luck ez

most of us are independantly wealthy, I don't know about others but I deposit ~20k monthly from my life savings into pokerstars to keep my roll alive

Yes, I do.

If everyone here would honestly say how much they've won or lost overall in their poker career in the game we can settle the question. I have a feeling it may be possible that many people lie about their success in the game.

obviously luck

I started playing at $25/$50 games with a $200k bankroll about a year ago, I have about $100 left and am currently slumming at the 1c/2c games

luck

luck duh lol so obv

I've flipped for my roll 4 times to get to it's current state, so luck I guess.

I always knew im a lucky person. I think im one of the few people that are up from poker. Im up around 40$ over 3 years.

On June 20 2007 15:02 TalentedTom wrote: most of us are independantly wealthy, I don't know about others but I deposit ~20k monthly from my life savings into pokerstars to keep my roll alive

lol, true

EASILY LUCK.

I deposit 100k every month to fill my roll. And I only play 100nl.

Well, I know an element of skill and luck is in the game. I am noticing a hint of sarcasm from some players and I understand their sarcasm. I've been sucked into the poker world myself. I've read the books, I've spent thousands of hours of my life playing poker and studying it, I've hit the highs, I've seen the lows, and in the end I came out probably negative $1000 to $0, which is about the price of the rake.

We know that there is a huge element of luck, and we know there is a small element of skill. We run this algorithm in our head that tells us since there is a small element of skill that it means over the long run that small element will mean those with more skill will come out on top. But could it be this is the part of poker that has tricked us into gambling? Most of us would never even think about playing a slot machine, or the lottery strategically. Yet, this game of poker seems to be a strategy game to us?

Could it be that the skill factor is so low, and that the luck factor is so potent that it actually offsets the skill factor in the long run as well as the short run? Somehow? Someway?

Shane

LUCK FACTOR IS POTENT LOL

I hate how the same players keep winning the money, they must be using a cheat code. Maybe they were given a special cheat bonus code when creating an account, I'll look deeper into this and report back

no one here is going to answer such a retarded question honestly.

LOL TalentedTom

lol

"We know that there is a huge element of luck, and we know there is a small element of skill"

If you still think that after playing the game for 3 years you should really quit playing, you definitly didn't catch the concept.

all luck

just like chess

Well I've heard a lot of sarcasm throughout this discussion, but no one honestly shared their results of poker. Save TalentedTom, who said he loses tens of thousands, but after his follow-up post one can easily assume he was being sarcastic.

I also understand the owners of LiquidPoker rely on their community to make ad revenue from the industry.

wow. This is either the greatest leveling i've ever witnessed, or the worst thinly veiled beat about how this guy can't beat micro stakes after 3 years....

I think the winrate statistic in poker tracker does a pretty good job of illustrating the answer to this question. I mean, if you take a sample of 50,000 hands its quite clear: poker is all luck and no one has any edge

also, LUCK OBVIOUSLY.

On June 20 2007 16:03 BigRed0000 wrote: wow. This is either the greatest leveling i've ever witnessed, or the worst thinly veiled beat about how this guy can't beat micro stakes after 3 years....

He was not provided the secret bonus cheat code like the rest of us.

On June 20 2007 16:02 stryfedll wrote: Well I've heard a lot of sarcasm throughout this discussion, but no one honestly shared their results of poker. Save TalentedTom, who said he loses tens of thousands, but after his follow-up post one can easily assume he was being sarcastic. I also understand the owners of LiquidPoker rely on their community to make ad revenue from the industry.

go to the blogs section of this site. there you will find players bragging endlessly about how their luck held up over 10,000,000 hands

LOL are you guys serious? everyone knows that poker is 100% luck and that the only long time winner on pokerstars is rekrul becouse he got a cheat code. just ask hallingoll.

On June 20 2007 16:02 stryfedll wrote: Well I've heard a lot of sarcasm throughout this discussion, but no one honestly shared their results of poker. Save TalentedTom, who said he loses tens of thousands, but after his follow-up post one can easily assume he was being sarcastic. I also understand the owners of LiquidPoker rely on their community to make ad revenue from the industry.

Im pretty sure you are joking but I regularily make 20k+/month and I have made over 100k in about a year of playing poker. And I am by FAR not the biggest winner. I remember northface making a post about him winning 200k~ in a month.


get real sir

OP

PM Rekrul for PokerStars_card_hack.exe and become a big winner today!

On June 20 2007 16:11 hansen jr. wrote: LOL are you guys serious? everyone knows that poker is 100% luck and that the only long time winner on pokerstars is rekrul becouse he got a cheat code. just ask hallingoll.

i was planning to quit school for poker but after i found this thread that poker is mostly luck, im back to studying my ass off to get my degree in 4 years.

poker is all luck and in the long run we all go broke

stryfedll we are being sarcastic because if poker were all luck this forum would be ridiculous. every conservation(or forum discussion) we have would be ridiculous and basically all we would be doing here all day is making asses out of ourselves.

you basically asked: are you all making asses out of yourselves all day long?

the good thing is that by answering that question we can determine whether poker is all luck...

:S

On June 20 2007 16:17 Pokerhaasje wrote: stryfedll we are being sarcastic because if poker were all luck this forum would be ridiculous. every conservation(or forum discussion) we have would be ridiculous and basically all we would be doing here all day is making asses out of ourselves. you basically asked: are you all making asses out of yourselves all day long? the good thing is that by answering that question we can determine whether poker is all luck... :S

monster poker all in for metagame purposes

Well, it could be the few players on this forum that maintain a cult following, and that maintain blogs, who have some odd urge to share with the world how much they are winning, have manipulated their PokerTracker results(which is fairly easy to do) in order to ensure that the members of this community keep depositing, via the banner ads on this website to create ad revenue...

...or it could be they are just making thousands of dollars.

I personally lean either way.

It would seem their may be some conspiracy of those who maintain poker communities or even televised events like the WSOP have some stake in "convincing" the populous and maintaining the image of poker as a game of skill.

If this conspiracy is true then card room entrepreneurs have created the ultimate strategy in advertising via referral campaigns on the internet.

I have a secret Roulette strategy that makes me a long-term winner. I will sell it for $50.

Also stryfedll you should read the advanced flipament strategy in the Other Poker Games forum, it will help your games. Chances are youre losing because you arent shouting the right stuff at the screen.

POKER IS ONE BIG CONSPIRACY

INFORM THE PRESS!

If you think about it, everyone gets dealt the same cards, so why do some people win and others lose? Where does any edge come from? The answer lies in hitting more flush draws then other players, if you use the cheat code you hit flush draws 72% of the time.

On June 20 2007 16:19 stryfedll wrote: Well, it could be the few players on this forum that maintain a cult following, and that maintain blogs, who have some odd urge to share with the world how much they are winning, have manipulated their PokerTracker results(which is fairly easy to do) in order to ensure that the members of this community keep depositing, via the banner ads on this website to create ad revenue... ...or it could be they are just making thousands of dollars. I personally lean either way. It would seem their may be some conspiracy of those who maintain poker communities or even televised events like the WSOP have some stake in "convincing" the populous and maintaining the image of poker as a game of skill. If this conspiracy is true then card room entrepreneurs have created the ultimate strategy in advertising via referral campaigns on the internet.

damn i think u uncover the secret

i am a bot designed by the leader rekrul so that all the fishes would keep coming to pokerstars

after reading this thread i'm going to pay PoorUser for roulette lessons and take that up as a career

If you are making profit playing poker, by all means continue. I created this thread really investigate how many of you are... So far, only those who are most invested in the LP community and maintain blogs and a cult following here are those who have spoken out so passionately about poker as a game of skill, via sarcasm, and other indirect forms of ridiculing the notion that it may perhaps not be wise to keep depositing your hard earned money into the fantasy of becoming a "poker pro."

On June 20 2007 15:37 TalentedTom wrote: I hate how the same players keep winning the money, they must be using a cheat code. Maybe they were given a special cheat bonus code when creating an account, I'll look deeper into this and report back

asdfhhrrccgffdh SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

On June 20 2007 16:19 stryfedll wrote: Well, it could be the few players on this forum that maintain a cult following, and that maintain blogs, who have some odd urge to share with the world how much they are winning, have manipulated their PokerTracker results(which is fairly easy to do) in order to ensure that the members of this community keep depositing, via the banner ads on this website to create ad revenue... ...or it could be they are just making thousands of dollars. I personally lean either way. It would seem their may be some conspiracy of those who maintain poker communities or even televised events like the WSOP have some stake in "convincing" the populous and maintaining the image of poker as a game of skill. If this conspiracy is true then card room entrepreneurs have created the ultimate strategy in advertising via referral campaigns on the internet.

You should really read what you post before you post it. Anyways I will explain for you why you are recieving so much sarcasm.

Here at the wonderful liquidpoker.net community we have a policy about stupid people. The policy is that if we talk stupid back to them, they will hopefully think we are stupid and leave us the fuck alone .

You suck at life. GG.

im making thousands with my pokerbots on 10nl... u should try it

at those lvls no one will even notice

This needs to be in the LP hall of fame, along with the threads from chobopoker and shit. This is truely entertaining.

But in case the OP is still serious, I my self have made $50 (Free LP pokerstars bonus <3 lp) into $1.5K in 30k Cash hands.

stryfedll you should learn something about probability before asking questions that were answered by math long time ago.

Put your roll on black to double your profits!

On June 20 2007 16:34 stryfedll wrote: If you are making profit playing poker, by all means continue. I created this thread really investigate how many of you are... So far, only those who are most invested in the LP community and maintain blogs and a cult following here are those who have spoken out so passionately about poker as a game of skill, via sarcasm, and other indirect forms of ridiculing the notion that it may perhaps not be wise to keep depositing your hard earned money into the fantasy of becoming a "poker pro."

I can confirm that I am slipping $20's into Saki's pockets to keep him posting in defence of skill.

ok ill do a serious answer....

im up about 30K over massive playing(i paid HUGEEEEEE ammounts in rake). The edge of good players at low limits is clearly very high and im certain any1 decent wins in the long run (which doesnt have to be so long....)

at higher limits(im talking about rly high limits) when the skill level is very close, if the rake was high its quite possible people would break even or loose money (if HOSS TBF played TLK HU at 2/4$(worst rake) i think its quite possible they would both loose in the long run).

anyways people have calculated the edge of rly good players is around 3% (every 100$ they put, they get 3$ back) in fixed limit.

You and I are given two hole cards, and a board is automatically dealt out, and whoever has the best 5-card hand is declared the winner. We repeat this a million times. Probability says that we'll be essentially even, right?

However, for each poker hand, we make at least one decision.

Now, for each of these decisions, you poll 1,000 math PHD's, and 1,000 professional poker players for your action.

The basic theory is that these 2,000 professionals could come up with a decision that would give you a positive edge against:

someone who has never played poker before + the rake

See?

Btw, I've lost my house, my dog, and my left nut to poker.

casper

is it you

On June 20 2007 16:49 wobbly_au wrote: This needs to be in the LP hall of fame.

On June 20 2007 16:15 byrnesam wrote: Show nested quote + On June 20 2007 16:11 hansen jr. wrote: LOL are you guys serious? everyone knows that poker is 100% luck and that the only long time winner on pokerstars is rekrul becouse he got a cheat code. just ask hallingoll.

LOOOOOOOOOOOL

this whole thread is love

On June 20 2007 17:10 KingKory wrote: Btw, I've lost my house, my dog, and my left nut to poker.

WHAT!? you said leftie was mine...

haha you all suck


it's neither luck nor skill. it's genetics.

all luck, specially live poker
Look at this lucky hi stake player

Submitted by : Forrest Gump

PokerStars Game #10527224920: Hold'em No Limit ($25/$50) - 2007/06/20 - 07:38:11 (ET)
Table 'Sophia' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 6: ADZ124 ($10643 in chips)
Seat 8: H@££INGGOL ($4271 in chips)
Seat 9: _d250749h_ ($5000 in chips)
H@££INGGOL: posts small blind $25
_d250749h_: posts big blind $50

Holecards
ADZ124: folds
H@££INGGOL: raises $150 to $200
_d250749h_: raises $300 to $500
H@££INGGOL: calls $300

Flop (Pot : $1,000.00)

   
H@££INGGOL: checks
_d250749h_: bets $1000
H@££INGGOL: calls $1000

Turn (Pot : $3,000.00)

   
H@££INGGOL: checks
_d250749h_: bets $3500 and is all-in
kuldipc joins the table at seat #5
H@££INGGOL said, "i dont belive you....."
_d250749h_ said, "wills hwo"
_d250749h_ said, "will show"
H@££INGGOL said, "only have a 2"
H@££INGGOL said, "wug?"
_d250749h_ said, "will show"
H@££INGGOL: calls $2771 and is all-in

River (Pot : $8,542.00)

   

Showdown
H@££INGGOL: shows (a pair of Deuces)
_d250749h_: mucks hand
ADZ124 said, "OMG"
H@££INGGOL collected $8541 from pot
ADZ124 said, "LOL"
kuldipc said, "brilliant call"

Summary
Total pot $8542 | Rake $1
Board  
Seat 6: ADZ124 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: H@££INGGOL (small blind) showed and won ($8541) with a pair of Deuces
Seat 9: _d250749h_ (big blind) mucked

Poker killed my father... and raped my mother!


Some people have better luck than others



Scientific Proof

i just read the whole thread .. GOLD

short term luck

long term skill

gg

On June 20 2007 19:25 Critterer wrote: short term luck long term skill gg

Don't tap teh aquariumz........

Jesus, as much as I suck at poker, I can admit that it's 80% skill. So to answer your question, it's predominantly skill.

On June 20 2007 20:47 eekmice wrote: Jesus, as much as I suck at poker, I can admit that it's 80% skill. So to answer your question, it's predominantly skill.

lol at 80%. The % chances depending on the sample size. 1 hand is like 95% luck, 100 million hands is 99.9% skill.

On June 20 2007 15:24 stryfedll wrote: [...] I've spent thousands of hours of my life playing poker and studying it [...] and in the end I came out probably negative $1000 to $0 [...]

1000hrs is 3hrs/day for a year.
I dont like to be cruel but this is like ... wow. You sir are a slow learner.

--- Nuked ---

Well, either way its settled. Poker is fun. There are many variations of style that a player will adapt to over his experiences playing. There is something about the feeling of excitement when you really do make the right call. When you catch your opponent bluffing, or when you know you have the better hand and push all your chips in. In those moments you may feel completely confident that you knew exactly what you were doing the entire time, and that the game is one of skill. Yet, there are other moments when the completely opposite happens. These experiences create a conflict, and the true question is if a poker player can actually learn from his mistakes in order to become a better poker player. Or does he just change his style? Neither increasing nor decreasing his overall ability to win, just adjusting one variable in his play that makes him better at defeating the present opponent, but by changing it another form of opponent becomes stronger against him.

So maybe two skills in poker would be the ability to identify and choose your opponents, which you would have to recognize your strengths and weakness. Maybe another would be the ability to rapidly adapt to your opponents style.

I don't know if this question could ever truly be settled, but I think it is settled that on this forum overwhelming people support the idea it is one of skill.

Shane

luck obv

If poker were all luck, sammy farha would never loose :D

On June 20 2007 20:55 bigbb33 wrote: Show nested quote + On June 20 2007 20:47 eekmice wrote: Jesus, as much as I suck at poker, I can admit that it's 80% skill. So to answer your question, it's predominantly skill. lol at 80%. The % chances depending on the sample size. 1 hand is like 95% luck, 100 million hands is 99.9% skill.

what the fuck u talking about, a single hand is like, 0.003% skill (assuming full ring vs decent players). its a total crap shoot, ull be folding most of the time.

aka normally(exception is complete trash ppl), when you play 100 hands, being a good player will have an impact on your win rate of around 3%, not much more.

if there was truly 5% skill in every hands we would have some sick win rates lol

On June 20 2007 21:46 stryfedll wrote: So maybe two skills in poker would be the ability to identify and choose your opponents, which you would have to recognize your strengths and weakness. Maybe another would be the ability to rapidly adapt to your opponents style.

You played hole year and you got to that just now? That is pretty obvious otherwise poker would not require skill just knowledge.

skluck.

On June 20 2007 17:45 Nazgul wrote: casper is it you

LOL i was thinking the same thing

two of my aunts are coming to visit in a few weeks, and boy am I looking forward to them asking me that question

there's nothing I enjoy more in life than explaining complicated things to complete and total morons

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
omg lol talentedtom made my day

On June 20 2007 15:02 TalentedTom wrote: most of us are independantly wealthy, I don't know about others but I deposit ~20k monthly from my life savings into pokerstars to keep my roll alive

didnt even bother reading the rest of the thread.

stryfedll...........................

Think about another game that you can somewhat compare to poker. Like backgammon. Both people roll the same two dice yet some players are clearly better than their opponents. Do you think thats because they got "hot hands in a dice game!!!" every match they play, or because they simply know the correct decisions to make given the situation they are put in given the roll of the dice? Now is there a huge difference between rolling dice and making a move in backgammon and getting dealt cards and making a move with what you're dealt?

Perhaps you don't understand one of the main concepts of poker: minimize your losses and maximize your winnings. The good players do just that to a higher degree than the bad players who seem to maximize their losses and minimize their winnings - those players usually lack an understanding of the game and take the easy route by blaming it on bad luck. Most likely they are putting themselves in -EV situations making -EV plays.

Maybe you need to start asking for advice on this forum, or another or whatever. A book isnt going to tell you what you did wrong or right, all they do is BRIEFLY go over the core concepts. Hopefully a hand will come up that someone will give you their two cents on how you played and flip the switch in your brain that you unconsciously refuse to turn on.

i love talentedtom

make it rain

And Im officially on the TalentedTom bandwagon after this thread btw.

nudity

On June 21 2007 02:20 pinbaLL wrote: nudity

LOLZ

-

balrrrrr

The only thing for certain in poker is that we'll all go broke in the long run and be forced to rob banks to pay off our debts. This of course will send our pastor fathers on a mission to others personal liberties and freedom to use one's discretionary income as they please in the name of his failed parenting.