The Coronavirus thread - Page 15

Jeah, the 21/79% is consistent for weeks now. Of course there is lag but it should mean that over time the number should drop a lot to 18/82 then 15/85 etc. but it didn't so far. I hear nobody talking about it. But the majority of cases is still open. If that ratio is stable for a while or doesn't drop extremely we have some problems.
Also keep in mind that some countries have many tests being done and they are nowhere near 1-1,5% yet. So we all assume that the deaths are counted correctly and that eventually the recovered will be 95% or so and deaths go down to 5% and then add some asymptomatic on top and we get to 0.3% (16,7x real infections globally then). But the more people are infected, the less it works that way anymore.
What am I missing because nobody argues that part and it is the most scary thing for the past weeks to me

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/202...e-coronavirus-treatment/#.XpMbVFMzaw4

Fujifilm's stock price went up 30% after they claim to have some success with their flu drug

[QUOTE]On April 12 2020 09:20 FiSheYe wrote:
Jeah, the 21/79% is consistent for weeks now. Of course there is lag but it should mean that over time the number should drop a lot to 18/82 then 15/85 etc. but it didn't so far. I hear nobody talking about it.

I was thinking the same thing however its an exponential growth with the death occurring around 5 times faster than the 'officia' recovery in most of the cases, thus I'd say keeping it stable across many weeks while still having an exponential growth is good

I mentioned the lag above as well Spitfiree but how can the death rate remain stable with exponential growth ? I mean I see your point in some ways but why is it stable at 21%? That seems like a weird coincidence that we have a lot more people dying quickly (increasing the numbers) but because more people come in, in general and recovered ones is smaller (because the numbers get bigger and recovered from 8 weeks ago is a smaller part of the overall numbers...). I mean it should still drop at some point, almost 2 Million people should do something to the numbers, compared to 1 Mio or 500k before.
Weirdly enough if you click on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and then on the graph of recovered/deaths it shows you that the numbers changed a lot past few weeks. I do remember it to be stable but maybe I am wrong? It seems like the deaths are increasing which would make sense with your explanation. Then eventually over time it should drop again once there is some form of slowing. That could be an explanation, I hope that is what we will see.
Good point tho, jump in with your thoughts if you want, nobody talked about that prior so I am intrigued

Graph seems about right 19-21% past 16-17ish days

The way I see it would work something like this in practice:

Week 1 - 100 infected - 2 dead 0/2
Week 2 - 110 more infected - 3dead 0/4
Week 3 - 115 more infected - 4 dead 0/5
Week 4 - 120 more infected - 5 dead 0/8
Week 5 - 130 more infected - 98 recovered 6 dead 98/20 - 4.9% (28days needed for recovery officially I think)
Week 6 - 150 more infected - 107 recovered 8 dead - 205/28 - 7.3%
Week 7 - whatever infected - 111 recovered 10 dead - 316/38 - 8.3%


so the CFR will grow with exponential growth until It reaches a cap on top, not sure if it will correlate with the disease spread too. We haveto take into account that the cases in China are probably at least 10x higher with x10 higher deaths too


P.S. obviously my numbers are pretty random with no specific growth factor and based on them deaths should possibly be a bit less, either way the % will grow

Thank you for your work, that seems to be a possible explanation. So you assume based on the data discussed, that cfr will be a lot lower more towards a ballpark of say 2% added in the end ? I am just trying to play both sides of this problematic evaluation. Those that say 5-10% cfr and those that assume now 0.3% to find where both could be right and wrong. To me 0.3% seems implausible with the discussed recovery/deaths / open cases total in combination with the real infected/deaths and the unknown infections/unknown deaths / underreported for XYZ reasons.

As mentioned prior we started a discord (which is sometimes very active, sometimes very inactive). Feel free to join and elaborate a bit further
https://discord.gg/DdstkPe

Appreciated !

On April 12 2020 03:16 Liquid`Drone wrote: Show nested quote + On April 11 2020 12:26 Mortensen8 wrote: Let the people who are too weak die this is natural. The solution is not global fascism we can't continue in this unsustainable way anyway the problem is that people are afraid to die. The combination of 'let the people who are too weak die' and following up with saying that the solution is not global fascism in the next sentence is really incredible.

LOL I thought the same thing, the irony went past through his head though.


Mortensen shut the fuck up, maybe you are cool with your parents dying, the rest of us are not.

I think it's a little bit crazy that we are just carrying on with these lockdowns with absolutely no plan for an end-game. My hospital has been basically dead for weeks. My girlfriend and I have been doing fuck all. Her entire floor has closed down because we have so few admitted patients so her shifts have been getting cancelled. She has been getting paid to sit at home and watch Netflix. They still have me coming in but the Emergency room where I work has been vacant. Someone also set up a gofundme to buy food from local restaurants to send to the ERs and ICUs in the Bay Area. Every single shift we get about 40 individualized meals delivered to us. So I've been mostly sitting around at work, eating free food, and getting paid. I always think that if a conspiracy theorist came in they would lose their shit when they saw the entire staff of the emergency room sitting around, joking, talking about all the food in the break room, etc.

The reality is that many hospitals are ghost towns across the entire country outside of the hot spots like in NY, NJ, Chicago, Detroit, New Orleans, etc. So many healthcare workers across the country are out of work right now because as it turns out they are only needed in the few areas I mentioned above. Are we just kicking the can down the road and doing nothing so we don't become like New York? Then what? Wait for a vaccine which could take years?

On April 17 2020 06:31 blackjacki2 wrote: I think it's a little bit crazy that we are just carrying on with these lockdowns with absolutely no plan for an end-game. My hospital has been basically dead for weeks. My girlfriend and I have been doing fuck all. Her entire floor has closed down because we have so few admitted patients so her shifts have been getting cancelled. She has been getting paid to sit at home and watch Netflix. They still have me coming in but the Emergency room where I work has been vacant. Someone also set up a gofundme to buy food from local restaurants to send to the ERs and ICUs in the Bay Area. Every single shift we get about 40 individualized meals delivered to us. So I've been mostly sitting around at work, eating free food, and getting paid. I always think that if a conspiracy theorist came in they would lose their shit when they saw the entire staff of the emergency room sitting around, joking, talking about all the food in the break room, etc. The reality is that many hospitals are ghost towns across the entire country outside of the hot spots like in NY, NJ, Chicago, Detroit, New Orleans, etc. So many healthcare workers across the country are out of work right now because as it turns out they are only needed in the few areas I mentioned above. Are we just kicking the can down the road and doing nothing so we don't become like New York? Then what? Wait for a vaccine which could take years?

I'm going to sound like a broken record but thats what happens when you get a humongous centralized federal government,, slow inefficient blanket policy

Thank you for sharing @Blackjacki2
I sent you a pm, let me know

On April 11 2020 12:26 Mortensen8 wrote: Let the people who are too weak die this is natural. The solution is not global fascism we can't continue in this unsustainable way anyway the problem is that people are afraid to die.

Thats the most stupid thing I`ve ever read.

On April 17 2020 06:31 blackjacki2 wrote: I think it's a little bit crazy that we are just carrying on with these lockdowns with absolutely no plan for an end-game. My hospital has been basically dead for weeks. My girlfriend and I have been doing fuck all. Her entire floor has closed down because we have so few admitted patients so her shifts have been getting cancelled. She has been getting paid to sit at home and watch Netflix. They still have me coming in but the Emergency room where I work has been vacant. Someone also set up a gofundme to buy food from local restaurants to send to the ERs and ICUs in the Bay Area. Every single shift we get about 40 individualized meals delivered to us. So I've been mostly sitting around at work, eating free food, and getting paid. I always think that if a conspiracy theorist came in they would lose their shit when they saw the entire staff of the emergency room sitting around, joking, talking about all the food in the break room, etc. The reality is that many hospitals are ghost towns across the entire country outside of the hot spots like in NY, NJ, Chicago, Detroit, New Orleans, etc. So many healthcare workers across the country are out of work right now because as it turns out they are only needed in the few areas I mentioned above. Are we just kicking the can down the road and doing nothing so we don't become like New York? Then what? Wait for a vaccine which could take years?

I live in Sunnyvale.

What hospital do you work at?

On April 17 2020 19:18 mdb wrote: Show nested quote + On April 11 2020 12:26 Mortensen8 wrote: Let the people who are too weak die this is natural. The solution is not global fascism we can't continue in this unsustainable way anyway the problem is that people are afraid to die. Thats the most stupid thing I`ve ever read.

Ironically, Baal is outraged at these kinds of statements yet he advocates for the same thing in the end, he just uses obfuscating language like "the government is too big, its inefficient" which means: "let the for-profit corporations and Our Mighty Capitalist Overlords run society as much as possible please".

This hides the same social darwinistic ideology, where those who are the most useful to generate profits are the "strongest" and create the structures and the rules that further rewards them, while those who are the least useful to the generation of private profits live short lives filled with toil and suffering and might be left to die in their own puke and excrements on the streets or in for-profit prisons or factory farms. I much prefer Mortensen's candidness, and at least his views are not nearly as popular. When a worldview nearly as stupid and inhumane is at least 10 times more popular, it's effectively much worse.

A right to housing, food, clean water and air, any sort of dignified life -- nope, let's not pursue that. Capital is all that matters -- all needs to be privatized. Don't worry though, without the state in the way, the ultrarich will be philanthropic and eradicate poverty! Also everyone knows billionaires love disabled people who are useless to capital, so they'll definitely have a lot of charities running for those people and not let them die.

How come there are conspiracy theorists but not conspiracy experimentalists

Relax lel poor wording on my part I mean we can't continue like this with overpopulation all these diseases are caused by overpopulation, pollution, poor nutrition and poor sanitation. My solution, not that it fucking matters is 1 child policy (until we get to sustainable numbers), return to living off the land and living in cooperation with nature with permaculture. Paganism is permaculture. We get to keep certain useful technology but not fucking cars and stupid shit I no more concrete jungle bs. I pretty much only think the internet as useful right now. Abrahamics, atheists, capitalists are what are causing this mess also fuck germ theory of disesase terrain theory is the truth not that anyone will even entertain the idea (it makes a lot of money).
Unfortunately we are stuck with this virus abrahamist germ theory philosophy of life and will have to go through the apocalypse before any change happens.

Yes, the 1 child policy in China definitely had effect and its not like there is like 100millions more males now meaning they are importing women from proxy states and increasing the crime rate for horrendous things like child and women trafficking, forcing them into sex workers and etc.


Yes, cars and vehicles are totally useless, Its not like 90% of the food you eat is being imported by those same fucking vehicles.

You're so driven by fear that your mind is completely fogged

What if 90% of the food you eat was not being imported by those same fucking vehicles? Or at least not to the degree they are being transported now?

That goes for all of production and distribution.

lol blackjacki2 that's hilarious

Actually scratch everything I say because I change my mind constantly lol even the abrahamics I am probably just blinded by my literal interpretation of old testament it is not meant to be read like that, carry on...

I just finished watching the "Nevada reopening plan" on YouTube.

Nevada is essentially going to wait 3 weeks or so (probably) before they launch Phase 1 of the reopening plan. Once the plan launches, all bars will remain closed during Phase 1.

"Large venues (dining, movies, sporting, places of worship, gyms) can operate under strict physical distancing protocols." = UNDER REVIEW IN NEVADA = the rich people in charge of these businesses need to provide a recommendation on how to handle these places = UFC Apex is small and intimate enough to host events, but we won't likely see a UFC at it's regular venue of T-Mobile Arena until after all three phases are lifted.

To be clear, he didn't say when Phase 1 would start, and how long Phase 1 would last. He just said that they will keep going through each phase as long as the amount of COVID-19 cases continues to decrease. If it begins to increase during any of the phases, then they'll need to slow things down again.