The Coronavirus thread - Page 14

Mortensen, come back. We are bored as fuck while stuck in our homes from these lockdowns. Don't let these sheeple get you down. You don't want people thinking you'll only engage with other like-minded individuals in the echo chambers of conspiracy blogs and forums, do you?

Not much of a conspiracy video. Of course the official counts are not 100% accurate. That's impossible to do. I'm not sure what his point is though? If you see a thousand corpses being hauled off does it really matter if a couple were actually killed by pneumonia? I also completely agree with him about preventing people from hiking and doing other activities outdoors in the middle of nowhere. We've been on shelter-in-place here in the Bay Area for over a month and I'm still free to travel wherever and go on a walk whenever I want, it would suck if you can't do that where you are. What country are you in that they passed laws about mandatory vaccines?

Care to give your own thoughts or TL;DR versions of what you are posting? I don't want to sit through an entire 40+ minute video of a guy contradicting himself every other minute.

You asked him to come back, he comes back, ' cAn YoU giVe mE TLDR'

I love how conspiracy videos always have this 1 guy who's figured everything out. We're not just talking maybe a couple of facts that took him years to research, but basically he's got the knowledgebase of an entire team of people, all by himself, and in only a few months time.

LOL from coronanvirus is fake, to Bill Gates wants to sterilize the world to Fluoride makes people dumb.

Mortensen has always had fringe ideas but he has gone full Rhaegar here

wow you guys are actually retarded this whole thing is like platos cave goodbye and stop watching news/hollywood you are obviously under mind control.

^That guy definitely does not sound like a conspiracy theorist. In fact some of what he says is stuff I have said myself and I definitely would not consider myself a conspiracy theorist. For example he says:

One situation was a very early experience during the pandemic. We have a cruise ship, Diamond Princess, where we had an outbreak of SARS-COV-2. So we had an infection rate close to 20% and among those who were infected as of now 1% has died. 1% is a figure that pertains to a population of mostly elderly people. The mean age of passengers and crew was 58 years old and the median was close to 65.

Here's a post of mine from TL from over a month ago.

The most compelling piece of data about this pandemic is the cruise ship that suffered an outbreak of the virus. In any other country we don't really know how many active cases there are. We only know the cases that they tested for. There could be many more that were never sick enough to go to the hospital or they did go to the hospital and it was presumed to be a flu or pneumonia so it wasn't tested for. However on the cruise ship all of the patients were monitored so we have a good idea of the total cases and the fatalities from those cases. So far I'm seeing it reported as 706 cases with 6 deaths. Less than 1%. I've never been on a cruise but my guess is the population would skew toward the elderly so it could be even better.

Someone pointed out to me that cruise ships also probably have fewer of the very elderly or elderly + comorbidities. Also it's completely disingenuous to try to calculate a mortality rate from the cruise ship and then extrapolate it to the general population. There are enough resources to treat 20% of a single cruise ship. There are not enough resources to treat 20% of the entire country. Anyone should be able to understand that the mortality rate will skyrocket if you have a collapse of the healthcare system. Right now healthcare workers are coming to New York from all over the country to risk their lives to save others (or more likely: to risk their lives to make $10,000/week for a few months)

The attempt at explaining why Italy was so hard hit was a good one, but now explain why Spain, Iran, New York are also so hard hit.

I think he makes a lot of good points. I personally think a lot of the lockdowns/shelter in place orders are too strict and should be loosened a bit. There should definitely be a lot more emphasis of the suffering/death that can come from wrecking the economy than there currently is.

Let the people who are too weak die this is natural. The solution is not global fascism we can't continue in this unsustainable way anyway the problem is that people are afraid to die.

Kind of an easy opinion to have as a 31 year old facing a disease that kills 0.2% of your demographic

+1. People say that until they get sick.

On April 11 2020 12:06 blackjacki2 wrote: I think he makes a lot of good points. I personally think a lot of the lockdowns/shelter in place orders are too strict and should be loosened a bit. There should definitely be a lot more emphasis of the suffering/death that can come from wrecking the economy than there currently is.

In a perfect society, the lockdown measures would be less strict indeed so that the herd immunity and scaling would go in a curve that is sustainable to each nation's healthcare system. We obviously don't live in a perfect society. Instead what would happen if the lockdown goes away is:
1) Get tons of people infected, who wont be able to work anyway - this has a potential insane snowballing effect since we still don't know enough about corona
2) Still go under a financial crisis, except with many more deaths


I still don't understand why don't countries follow South Korea's approach of huge amount of testing. It seems that if patients are taken care of at the very beginning the death rate is insignificant.

I think it was wise and way too late, but isolation / flatteningthecurve was clearly GTO. Now that it seems more likely the virus is not as deadly as we thought, we should lower the some of the measures but in a smart manner. There is something I posted yesterday on discord in 3 channels and never got an answer. Maybe someone here is willing to argue.

Repost: lets use yesterdays data for spain or italy based on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/: we have spain with 153.222 tested / 15447 deaths = cfr 10% and italy with 143.626 with 18279 deaths = cfr 12,7%. Obviously both are likely around 1% cfr or so because real infections are 10-50x as high. But almost nobody is talking about the 85,610 open cases in spain and 96,877 in Italy .... there is some "lag" between people dying within 2-3 weeks and recovery being 2-8 weeks but if you look at the world data of closed cases it is usually around 101,502 (21%) deaths and 371,999 (79%) recovered. So all those open cases in Spain and Italy or anywhere else in the world will drastically increase CFR over time on top.
I posted it, because more and more people argue that the real cfr will be somewhere around 0.3-0.4%
which needs a lot of "positive" things to happen and positive thinking that is hard to backup in the data.

What does CFR stand for?


Also I've been tracking down death rate to closed cases including the lagging behind of recovery but don't really know what to think of the data, it's been at 21% for a while now so it means that recovery cases are catching up. The thing about real infections being x10-50 is just simple speculation at this time, we really do not know at all. We hope it is because the bigger the discrepancy the less fatal the virus is. 0.3%-0.4% seems just pure wishful thinking with the data we have ... 1 to 1.5% is much more reasonable.

China being pure pieces of shit is being a real issue here, cause we could've already had a good case study based on the situation there, except the good old american saying 'the only good communist is a dead one' seems to be true. I know the world's production is there, but I really hope the US and EU fucking destroy them with sanctions after this shit is done. Unfortunately, greed is good and that won't happen in a meaningful way

On April 11 2020 12:26 Mortensen8 wrote: Let the people who are too weak die this is natural. The solution is not global fascism we can't continue in this unsustainable way anyway the problem is that people are afraid to die.

The combination of 'let the people who are too weak die' and following up with saying that the solution is not global fascism in the next sentence is really incredible.

Also CFR is Case Fatality Rate - so the amount of dead compared to the amount of confirmed cases. A lot of people have cited these figures as an indicator of the % of people who die from being infected with covid, but with current testing numbers it's really not valid because the ratio of infected to confirmed cases is also an unknown factor.