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UFC FN 119: Brunson vs. Machida

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PuertoRican   United States. Oct 24 2017 01:36. Posts 11143

Date: Saturday, October 28th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.stopstream.me/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Derek Brunson (17-5) vs. Lyoto Machida (22-7) (Middleweight)
Demian Maia (25-7) vs. Colby Covington (12-1) (Welterweight)
Pedro Munhoz (14-2) vs. Rob Font (14-2) (Bantamweight)
Francisco Trinaldo (21-5) vs. Jim Miller (28-10) (Lightweight)
Thiago Santos (15-5) vs. Jack Hermansson (16-3) (Middleweight)
John Lineker (29-8) vs. Marlon Vera (10-3-1) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 2)

Vicente Luque (11-6-1) vs. Niko Price (11-0) (Welterweight)
Antonio Carlos Junior (8-2) vs. Jack Marshman (22-6) (Middleweight)
Hacran Dias (23-5-1) vs. Jared Gordon (13-1) (Lightweight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (17-5) vs. Max Griffin (13-3) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Deiveson Figueiredo (12-0) vs. Jarred Brooks (13-0) (Flyweight)
Christian Colombo (8-2-1) vs. Marcelo Golm (5-0) (Heavyweight)

Other

- On September 19, promotional newcomer Carlos Felipe was flagged for a potential USADA violation stemming from an out-of-competition sample collected July 29. Therefore he was pulled from his UFC debut against Christian Colombo. He was replaced by fellow promotional newcomer Marcelo Golm on September 20.
- On October 6, it was announced that Luan Chagas fractured his foot and pulled out of his welterweight bout against Niko Price. He was replaced by Vicente Luque on October 6.

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Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Oct 24 2017 01:39. Posts 11143



----------

First impression of the match-ups:

• Machida > Brunson
• Covington > Maia
• Munhoz > Font
• Trinaldo > Miller
• Santos > Hermansson
• Lineker > Vera
• Price > Luque
• Junior > Marshman
• Gordon > Dias
• Santos > Griffin
• Figueiredo > Brooks
• Golm > Colombo

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 24/10/2017 05:40

Floofy   Canada. Oct 24 2017 06:08. Posts 8667

Covington is favorite? The heck? I mean, he got subbed by Warlley Alves wait till you face Maia.
Only way i see Convington winning is if he kinda mimic the blueprint Masvidal has set.

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;( 

TianYuan    Korea (South). Oct 24 2017 06:49. Posts 6753

Covington and Masvidal are friends / were room-mates I think? So it's not like him using a Masvidal gameplan would be that unexpected.

Hm.. Off-suite socks.. 

Floofy   Canada. Oct 24 2017 08:12. Posts 8667


  On October 24 2017 05:49 TianYuan wrote:
Covington and Masvidal are friends / were room-mates I think? So it's not like him using a Masvidal gameplan would be that unexpected.



Yea essentially if Covington wants to be cocky and go to the ground with Maia, he's in for a rough night. But if he's smart, i think his wrestling is good enough to keep it standing and he def can win a standup fight.

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;( 

Montrachet   Canada. Oct 24 2017 12:37. Posts 115

Do we know who BJJ scout is? Except the rumors of being Ben Askren.


PuertoRican   United States. Oct 24 2017 17:57. Posts 11143


  On October 24 2017 11:37 Montrachet wrote:
Do we know who BJJ scout is? Except the rumors of being Ben Askren.


BJJ Scout's name is Verbal Kint.

Rekrul is a newb 

Montrachet   Canada. Oct 25 2017 00:46. Posts 115


  On October 24 2017 16:57 PuertoRican wrote:
Show nested quote +


BJJ Scout's name is Verbal Kint.


Just like the fictive character?


alejandicto   . Oct 25 2017 01:12. Posts 755

I made a bet on Machida and Maia since he is the underdog.


PuertoRican   United States. Oct 25 2017 03:34. Posts 11143


  On October 24 2017 23:46 Montrachet wrote:
Show nested quote +



Just like the fictive character?


Rekrul is a newb 

Floofy   Canada. Oct 25 2017 03:59. Posts 8667


  On October 25 2017 00:12 alejandicto wrote:
I made a bet on Machida and Maia since he is the underdog.



I like the maia bet, but i'm not sure about Machida. He just suffered 2 really hard loss, he's now 39, and Brunson is pretty good.

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;( 

PuertoRican   United States. Oct 25 2017 08:17. Posts 11143


  On October 25 2017 02:59 Floofy wrote:
Show nested quote +



I like the maia bet, but i'm not sure about Machida. He just suffered 2 really hard loss, he's now 39, and Brunson is pretty good.

I'm the opposite.

I like Alejandicto's bet on Machida, but don't like his bet on Maia. Both guys are underdogs, so it's not a bad bet, I just think Machida will beat Brunson, and Covington will beat Maia.

Maia is 39-years-old (just like Machida), and he has been fighting professionally for 16 years. His last fight was a title shot that he worked hard to get (7 wins in a row), and he lost it, and he knows he won't ever get another title shot again. Also, people often lose their first fight after a title fight loss -- it happens enough that people have noticed a trend, but it's not a lock.

I think Machida will counter Brunson at some point and get the knockout. I see a small chance for it to go to a decision, but I hope it won't, cuz they're scheduled to fight 5 rounds.

I think Covington will win a boring decision over Maia.

Rekrul is a newb 

alejandicto   . Oct 25 2017 18:27. Posts 755

thanks for the tips guys. I wanna see what happens.

Puertorican (and everyone who bets) I want to ask you how are you doing with the bets, are you winning so far? I am like break even (maybe losing a bit), I want to analyze more the fights before making a bet, I usually go for my instinct and what I remember.

last weekend I won a parlay from mousasi (bad bet at that odds, I thought mousasi was going to play with shlemenko) + karolina. And I lost 30 bucks on Cerrone. Thats my tendency on betting I win some bets and lose others.


PuertoRican   United States. Oct 25 2017 20:34. Posts 11143

I'm on a break from betting since I'm busy with work + school until the end of December.

I still play a lot on DraftKings, but I don't need to research much for DK. The strategy for DK is very different than actually betting on fights.

The best strategy for betting MMA is to only bet 5 or less fights per card. Most people who bet on MMA always bet every fight on every card, which is a losing strategy.

Rekrul is a newb 

whamm!   Albania. Oct 26 2017 01:46. Posts 11625

machida's gonna cash some checks and retire so i bet on brunson. since usada these guys just can't do it anymore
i bet on maia, just because he does well in non-title fights haha


PuertoRican   United States. Oct 26 2017 05:20. Posts 11143


  On October 26 2017 00:46 whamm! wrote:
machida's gonna cash some checks and retire so i bet on brunson. since usada these guys just can't do it anymore
i bet on maia, just because he does well in non-title fights haha


If Machida wanted to retire, he would've done it already. He hasn't fought in nearly 2.5 years.

If anything, Machida returning to MMA after a nearly 2.5 year ban shows how hungry he is to kick someone's ass again.

Rekrul is a newb 

whamm!   Albania. Oct 26 2017 06:18. Posts 11625

i just feel the old guard are still fighting for the paychecks. there's been nobody from his time who's beating anybody
derek brunson is enough to put him into retirement imo


alejandicto   . Oct 26 2017 14:55. Posts 755

Machida said in a interview that the only reason he is coming back is to be a champion, he is the kind of guy who truly believe in himself and that he can be champion again imo.


iakim322   United States. Oct 28 2017 04:57. Posts 1274

Betting on older fighters coming off layoffs isn't often a good thing but I like Machida here. I think the layoff could actually have been beneficial in his circumstance since he got pretty destroyed physically in his last two fights. Good time to have recuperated. You could argue that his last two opponents were two of the top three middleweights and Brunson while good, definitely isn't that. 5 round fight. Just so much time for Brunson to make a striking mistake which he still does here and there. And one opening is all Machida should need

Like Trinaldo as well. Santos vs Hermansson should be fun. Luque and Price too. Maia and Covington is interesting as well. Looks like a sneaky good card. Certainly better than the average fight night Brazilian card


northsails   Bulgaria. Oct 28 2017 18:17. Posts 410

I think Machida matches up very well with Brunson. Still a lot of questions about him with 2 years off and 2 brutal losses back to back. So not sure about betting that fight, maybe live bet after seeing how the 1st round unfolds.

Also I am huge on Maia Can't really see why Colby is the fav here. The guy has to fight off close subs and is often reversed on the ground in most of his fights and is fighting a grappling based style against Maia, who is a wizard. Maybe he can keep it standing and win a boring decision, but still this fight ends on the ground the majority of the time and I think Covington sooner or later is going to make mistake and get strangled or reversed and dominated on the mat.


 
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