UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor - Page 2

I still remember how easily Mendes took McGregor down before he got too tired to do anything. I'm really wondering if Alvarez can't just do that all night. As always I'm really intrigued by Conor fighting to see how he will deal with his opponent. I haven't bet on MMA in a while now. What do you guys think of Thompson at -175?

On October 12 2016 13:02 Nazgul wrote: I still remember how easily Mendes took McGregor down before he got too tired to do anything. I'm really wondering if Alvarez can't just do that all night. As always I'm really intrigued by Conor fighting to see how he will deal with his opponent. I haven't bet on MMA in a while now. What do you guys think of Thompson at -175?

It has been a long time since that fight Connors TD defense should be better, his defense vs Nate against the cage appeared flawless.

Pettis folds under pressure, he is not a counterstriker and he relies on his kicks, he needs space and time, he does all the flashy shit to get a response kind of like Anderson Silva with less goofing and more effective on the offense, but rushing Connor doesnt seem like a good idea the same way rushing Silva is bad.

I think Connor Knocks out out in the 1st or 2nd, but I dont think it was Nate's style that tired Conor, I think Conor simply has really bad cardio and that is scary.

On October 09 2016 23:29 Spitfiree wrote: Why Pennington > Tate as a first impression? I dont really feel like Pennington is better than her even on the ground

I completely agree with this pick. I lean Pennington, Tate has so many holes she has just gritted through a lot of close fights against McMann, Holm, even Jessica Eye in the first round and got KO'd by Zingano who I've realized was overrated. Than Nunez pastes her in 1 min (I was on Nunes big for that fight for this same reason). Miesha isn't very good, just gritty and a solid grappler with slightly above average power for WMMA 135.

Pennington on the other hand has improved to the point where she is def a better more active striker, and I'm sure she can keep it standing for the most part, where she'll be outpointing Miesha.

Conor > Alavares

I dont mind the Eddie/Mendez dynamic comparison, I think Eddie's gameplan should be similar in terms of looking for the TD/GnP/Sub, but some key diff:

- Mendes is so compact/stocky/quick and has a good enough overhand right that he was able to play off of that punch and get in on Conor's hips and blast away. I don't think Eddie is as quick to be able to get in at will like Mendes. Ofcourse he can theoretically take Conor down but it won't be as easy. (the biggest key IMO)
- Conor was not 100 percent for the Mendes fight, had a fucked up knee and the most brutal looking weight cut I've ever seen
- Conor is a better grappler/fighter now than he was than, this is just common sense given his career trajectory

- Eddie is a way more technical striker than Mendes, he actually throws in combination and doesn't just rely on power. I don't think he hits quite as hard 1 punch wise as Chad, hard to say, but he's def better on the feet
- If Eddie does get Conor down flat on his back, Eddie will be able to do more damage and/or threaten Conor more from the top, not just lay in guard, but laying in guard is what won Mendes those rounds, Eddie's aggression on the ground will give Conor a chance to get up
- Mendes was on short notice with shit cardio, Eddie will be in great shape as always
- Mentally, Eddie seems like he won't possibly break the way Chad did

All in all, I favor Conor pretty big, I think the first point is the most important in practice because despite Eddie being a better striker than Mendes, he's still most likely at a massive disadvantage trading over time and I'm fairly confident McGregor can keep it standing most of the time, I don't think he will get wrestlefucked to a decision, and I think he can survive and get up off of the ground.

That said, the 2 distinct paths to victory for Eddie:
- Use illusive footwork on the feet to keep the volume low between clinch/wrestling exchanges, outwrestle McGregor enough to take rounds and ultimately a decision
- Survive an early war that drains them both, take over and get a late stoppage or win a close decision due to massive heart and cardio
- (#3 would be submission via a massive ground advantage, but I think Conor is vastly underrated on the ground and this is much less likely than people are probably projecting

On October 12 2016 10:42 northsails wrote: Alvarez will try the tactic he employed against Pettis. Wrestle for his life, but I think Conor reacts better to pressure than Pettis and is harder to be crowded against the fence, actually He will be the one putting the pressure. Eddie will look clueless and get smashed in the 1st , imo.

Exactly my thoughts on ME, It will be a surprise if Alvarez survives the first round, even though people underestimate Alvarez a bit when it comes to responding to pressure imo.

On October 12 2016 13:02 Nazgul wrote: I still remember how easily Mendes took McGregor down before he got too tired to do anything. I'm really wondering if Alvarez can't just do that all night. As always I'm really intrigued by Conor fighting to see how he will deal with his opponent. I haven't bet on MMA in a while now. What do you guys think of Thompson at -175?

Conor had a knee injury going into that fight, and he faced the best wrestler in the division. Eddie isn't an elite wrestler, even though he'll have the wrestling advantage against Conor.

I think Wonderboy will win, but I think his line will get better than -160.

1. Didn't Eddie take Pettis down over and over?
2. Would you say Conor's takedown defense is better than Pettis (keep weight in mind too this isn't p4p)?

On October 12 2016 16:31 Nazgul wrote: 1. Didn't Eddie take Pettis down over and over? 2. Would you say Conor's takedown defense is better than Pettis (keep weight in mind too this isn't p4p)?

First, I don't think Pettis and Conor are similar fighters, so I wouldn't compare how Pettis fought and how Conor might fight against Alvarez.

Second, Alvarez got 3 TDs in R1 against Pettis, then he wasn't able to get any TDs in R2, and then got 3 TDs in R3. Alvarez literally hugged Pettis and kept him against the cage and didn't do much damage, as seen in his punch stats (Alvarez got 3 TDs in R1 and grinded Pettis against the cage and only landed 3 significant strikes). When Alvarez wasn't able to get the TD in R2, he lost the round by Pettis landing more strikes (all three judges gave Pettis this round). R3 was just bad fight IQ by Pettis, as he went for some type of kick (spinning?) and got taken down, and he also just stared at Alvarez when they were on the feet and didn't throw any strikes. Finally, Pettis is known as a small lightweight fighter, in that he is skinny and doesn't weigh a lot on fight-day, while someone like Conor will re-hydrate and be stronger than someone like Pettis and won't get hugged against the cage in R1 and R2 like Pettis did. Pettis moved down to 145 in his last fight cuz of his size, and then he called out Alvarez afterward for a title fight, which tells me Pettis doesn't plan on staying at 145 if he doesn't have to (his cardio was shit after R1 ended and was going to lose a decision to Charles Oliveira if he didn't get the submission).

On October 12 2016 13:09 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On October 12 2016 13:02 Nazgul wrote: I still remember how easily Mendes took McGregor down before he got too tired to do anything. I'm really wondering if Alvarez can't just do that all night. As always I'm really intrigued by Conor fighting to see how he will deal with his opponent. I haven't bet on MMA in a while now. What do you guys think of Thompson at -175? It has been a long time since that fight Connors TD defense should be better, his defense vs Nate against the cage appeared flawless. Pettis folds under pressure, he is not a counterstriker and he relies on his kicks, he needs space and time, he does all the flashy shit to get a response kind of like Anderson Silva with less goofing and more effective on the offense, but rushing Connor doesnt seem like a good idea the same way rushing Silva is bad. I think Connor Knocks out out in the 1st or 2nd, but I dont think it was Nate's style that tired Conor, I think Conor simply has really bad cardio and that is scary.

Alvarez doesn't need the cage to use takedowns. He's got a nasty double and single he can use in the middle of the cage. Pettis actually kinda backs himself up to the fence on purpose to help with his TDD. He's been doing it for awhile and it worked in the Bendo fight for example.

Also Nate is a horrible wrestler. His takedown on Conor was his first in like 7 years and he has like 30% success rate and most of that is against bums. So stuffing Nate doesn't say much.

I agree Conor is a much better counter striker than Pettis and could definitely catch Alvarez coming in. But Pettis is also a ridiculously better grappler than Conor. People seem to think Conor will do as well in the grappling as Pettis did and that just isn't the case. Pettis is an absolutely monster grappler. Dude subbed Melendez, Bendo, and Oliveria.

If Eddie gets Conor down it won't be a stalemate like the Pettis fight. He should have a pretty sizable advantage.

Nunes opens at +220 vs Rousey. Huge value, imo.

On October 12 2016 10:42 northsails wrote: Alvarez will try the tactic he employed against Pettis. Wrestle for his life, but I think Conor reacts better to pressure than Pettis and is harder to be crowded against the fence, actually He will be the one putting the pressure. Eddie will look clueless and get smashed in the 1st , imo. Woodley for sure can surprise and KO Wonderboy early. Thompson carries his hands low and relies on his counterpunching and movement when attacked, but against Ellenberger he got dropped. And Woodley have the power and the speed to put him out. Most likely he will get picked apart and stopped, though.

yes that is the same assesment that I am having about the alvarez and mcgregor fight. alrvarez will wresle and grind conor until he gets tired. eddie believes he can take the irishman's barrage because he also can strike.

you are a brilliant analyst because you and I have the same opinion of woodley. woodley will win. i will bet on it again like the fight vs lawler.

On October 12 2016 20:22 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On October 12 2016 13:09 Baalim wrote:   On October 12 2016 13:02 Nazgul wrote: I still remember how easily Mendes took McGregor down before he got too tired to do anything. I'm really wondering if Alvarez can't just do that all night. As always I'm really intrigued by Conor fighting to see how he will deal with his opponent. I haven't bet on MMA in a while now. What do you guys think of Thompson at -175? It has been a long time since that fight Connors TD defense should be better, his defense vs Nate against the cage appeared flawless. Pettis folds under pressure, he is not a counterstriker and he relies on his kicks, he needs space and time, he does all the flashy shit to get a response kind of like Anderson Silva with less goofing and more effective on the offense, but rushing Connor doesnt seem like a good idea the same way rushing Silva is bad. I think Connor Knocks out out in the 1st or 2nd, but I dont think it was Nate's style that tired Conor, I think Conor simply has really bad cardio and that is scary. Alvarez doesn't need the cage to use takedowns. He's got a nasty double and single he can use in the middle of the cage. Pettis actually kinda backs himself up to the fence on purpose to help with his TDD. He's been doing it for awhile and it worked in the Bendo fight for example. Also Nate is a horrible wrestler. His takedown on Conor was his first in like 7 years and he has like 30% success rate and most of that is against bums. So stuffing Nate doesn't say much. I agree Conor is a much better counter striker than Pettis and could definitely catch Alvarez coming in. But Pettis is also a ridiculously better grappler than Conor. People seem to think Conor will do as well in the grappling as Pettis did and that just isn't the case. Pettis is an absolutely monster grappler. Dude subbed Melendez, Bendo, and Oliveria. If Eddie gets Conor down it won't be a stalemate like the Pettis fight. He should have a pretty sizable advantage.

The thing is takedown attempts against the cage wears down both fighters, takedown attempts in the middle of the ring only wear down the one who attempts it, Conor is usually light on his feet except when the opponent gives him a lot of aciton on his feet, in those cases he sinks the heels and relies on upper body movement, so if Alvarez wants to get a shot at taking him down he is going to have to trade big or get a perfect double timing Connor in but again, Connor wont commit to leads if Eddie doesnt be willing to trade hard punches.

A cautious Alvarez gets picked apart, I think Alvarez needs to get in there and risk getting knocked to win this fight

Eddie's head seems like it's begging to get Knocked out cold, small mouth and Chin, big forehead etc
I really doubt his mouth and chin can absorb one clean shot from Mcgregoat. I say this because I have the same features and whenever I try tapping my jaw lightly with my fist I feel like I just had a mild concussion lol

On October 13 2016 09:42 whamm! wrote: Eddie's head seems like it's begging to get Knocked out cold, small mouth and Chin, big forehead etc I really doubt his mouth and chin can absorb one clean shot from Mcgregoat. I say this because I have the same features and whenever I try tapping my jaw lightly with my fist I feel like I just had a mild concussion lol

LOLOL try it harder and lets see if you faceplant on your keyboard :D

I've never head of a theory of facial structure being more prone to KOs, I mean, I guess a big squared jaw have more mass thus rotating less decreasing impact on the brain but theres probably bigger factors like actually how many Gs your brain has to experience before it shuts off, interesting topic I've never researched it.

I have an average or slightly heavier than avg jaw and Im hitting it moderately hard with my knuckles and I feel absolutely nothing

On October 13 2016 11:52 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On October 13 2016 09:42 whamm! wrote: Eddie's head seems like it's begging to get Knocked out cold, small mouth and Chin, big forehead etc I really doubt his mouth and chin can absorb one clean shot from Mcgregoat. I say this because I have the same features and whenever I try tapping my jaw lightly with my fist I feel like I just had a mild concussion lol LOLOL try it harder and lets see if you faceplant on your keyboard :D I've never head of a theory of facial structure being more prone to KOs, I mean, I guess a big squared jaw have more mass thus rotating less decreasing impact on the brain but theres probably bigger factors like actually how many Gs your brain has to experience before it shuts off, interesting topic I've never researched it. I have an average or slightly heavier than avg jaw and Im hitting it moderately hard with my knuckles and I feel absolutely nothing

can you post a selfie? i am curious. i would like to see what a slightly heavier average jaw looks like.

also what will happen is alvarez will knockout the irishman in the 1st round.

On October 13 2016 09:36 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On October 12 2016 20:22 Stim_Abuser wrote:   On October 12 2016 13:09 Baalim wrote:   On October 12 2016 13:02 Nazgul wrote: I still remember how easily Mendes took McGregor down before he got too tired to do anything. I'm really wondering if Alvarez can't just do that all night. As always I'm really intrigued by Conor fighting to see how he will deal with his opponent. I haven't bet on MMA in a while now. What do you guys think of Thompson at -175? It has been a long time since that fight Connors TD defense should be better, his defense vs Nate against the cage appeared flawless. Pettis folds under pressure, he is not a counterstriker and he relies on his kicks, he needs space and time, he does all the flashy shit to get a response kind of like Anderson Silva with less goofing and more effective on the offense, but rushing Connor doesnt seem like a good idea the same way rushing Silva is bad. I think Connor Knocks out out in the 1st or 2nd, but I dont think it was Nate's style that tired Conor, I think Conor simply has really bad cardio and that is scary. Alvarez doesn't need the cage to use takedowns. He's got a nasty double and single he can use in the middle of the cage. Pettis actually kinda backs himself up to the fence on purpose to help with his TDD. He's been doing it for awhile and it worked in the Bendo fight for example. Also Nate is a horrible wrestler. His takedown on Conor was his first in like 7 years and he has like 30% success rate and most of that is against bums. So stuffing Nate doesn't say much. I agree Conor is a much better counter striker than Pettis and could definitely catch Alvarez coming in. But Pettis is also a ridiculously better grappler than Conor. People seem to think Conor will do as well in the grappling as Pettis did and that just isn't the case. Pettis is an absolutely monster grappler. Dude subbed Melendez, Bendo, and Oliveria. If Eddie gets Conor down it won't be a stalemate like the Pettis fight. He should have a pretty sizable advantage. The thing is takedown attempts against the cage wears down both fighters, takedown attempts in the middle of the ring only wear down the one who attempts it, Conor is usually light on his feet except when the opponent gives him a lot of aciton on his feet, in those cases he sinks the heels and relies on upper body movement, so if Alvarez wants to get a shot at taking him down he is going to have to trade big or get a perfect double timing Connor in but again, Connor wont commit to leads if Eddie doesnt be willing to trade hard punches. A cautious Alvarez gets picked apart, I think Alvarez needs to get in there and risk getting knocked to win this fight

Not sure how you came to that conclusion when everyone Conor has fought has given him action on the feet, which isn't surprising since Mendes is the only non striker he's faced. And it's not surprising Mendes gave him action on the feet considering he'd become a striker at that point who'd only used his wrestling once in the past like 5-6 years which was against Lentz, a fight he looked terrible in.

As a side none of Mendes takedowns in the fight were set up with strikes. He either shot with zero set up and got it or ducked under a Conor punch and got it.

Having just rewatched the Mendes fight I'm even more confident in Eddie winning. Plus the Firas breakdown

Have to rewatch some Eddie fights but I think Mendes' shots are actually more explosive than Eddie's. That and while Nates wrestling is weak as fuck, the recent Conor looked a ton sturdier than that skeleton Conor that fought Mendes which gives credibility to the notion that Conor's knee really was whack that fight. Eddie's striking is more diverse than chad's but really not by a lot. And seeing as how I always thought, as do many, that Conor's optimal weight is '55, I think an impressive Conor showing is coming

Really really want Weidman and Thompson to wipe out Romero and Woodley. And they really should. Nagging feeling to not go so big on Thompson tho. He should easily pick Woodley apart and make it look like it should've been 10:1. Just a weird feeling that Woodley will close that gap one time. Hoping Thompson can roll back with the shot well because as one dimensional as he can get and as much as I dislike him, that explosive Woodley right might be one of the more underrated single weapons in mma

Going to be on Honda pretty good. Already saw so much random Honda hate and how 2:1 is like the biggest gift on Nunes. Sure hope they follow through and pull the line down. Nunes is really good obviously but such a diff striker than the much more mobile and defensive Holm. Going to be a lot easier to grab onto Nunes as opposed to Holm. Only real problem in my eyes is that Honda possibly hasn't wisened up to proper game plans or just in general yet... determined solely because she hasn't dumped her complete garbage ass trainer yet

On October 12 2016 16:31 Nazgul wrote: 1. Didn't Eddie take Pettis down over and over?

Yeah but McGregor s gonna come out swinging and putting the pressure on Alvarez right off the bat like he usually does. Pettis does not fight similarly, plus I dont believe Pettis has a good TDD, he can just really hurt you off his back and on the ground overall

Let's not make Eddie out to be this dominant grappler, which he is not. Mendes has better wrestling than him and actually early in his career before he learned some striking was a lay and pray fighter.

Alvarez did not put a wrestling clinic on Pettis. He was able to take him down a couple times briefly and mostly stalled against the cage, which earned him a close split decision. Pettis might have a better TDD than Conor, but he is easily backed against the cage when pressured, something that is not easy to do against Conor, who mostly puts the pressure himself or stands his ground and fires counters and exits at an angle.

Against Cowboy, Eddie could not hit a takedown to safe his life and got absolutely dismantled on the feet. I am aware that Cerrone intercepting knees were the main reason for that, but his length was also a big issue and I think Mcgregor is going to be the bigger man in this fight.

Alvarez is a brawler/wrestler with good movement, good power and a lot of heart, but he is sometimes very sloppy and gets hurt bad in most of his fights. He is most likely going to be cracked bad by Mcgregor in the 1st round, will he survive it? We'll see.