UFC 188: Velasquez vs. Werdum - Page 2

On June 09 2015 00:53 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On June 08 2015 23:52 soberstone wrote:   On June 08 2015 19:58 PuertoRican wrote: Mexico City is at elevation, so keep that in mind when betting. The guy who is most likely to gas is Todhunter, as he's fighting on short notice, dropping to 170 for the first time, and never goes over 1.5 rounds in his fights. My only bet thus far is 3 units on Cathal Pendred +135. What do you see in Pendred v Montano that's making you throw down? I'm not saying it's a bad bet, I just don't see it, wondering your rationale, ty Pendred is the better grappler imo, and doesn't gas as hard as Montano. Granted, they're fighting at high elevation, so it will probably be a shit-fest with a possible finish in round 3. I also didn't like Montano's debut (it was in Mexico City). His offense and cardio against the smallest guy in the weightclass was pretty sad. I think Pendred will do what he does and find himself on Montano's back at some point. Montano won't have the size and strength advantage like he had against his opponent in his UFC debut. I'm surprised the UFC matched Montano up with Pendred, since it will most likely be the worst fight on the card.

Yup, his TDD does look terrible, I hear you there, I may end up hedging the parlay I have Montano in with some kind of Pendred ITD bet as I could see him taking him down early and subbing him but if it goes past a round I still see Pendred losing when his arms and legs start moving like they are in molasses.

On June 09 2015 00:53 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On June 09 2015 00:19 Minsk wrote: I like the line on Werdum and actually think Werdum is a higher level fighter than Velasquez overall. Combine that with Velasquez injury. I'm sure Werdum will have something up his sleeve to counter the specific style of Velasquez. It's not the easiest style to counter, but all the factors combined, I don't think that Velsaquez ego will be able to roll over Werdum. Werdum is very sneaky and tricky, and has a lot of styles, and is very good strategically, has continuity, his body is okay. I think overall, hes the best heavyweight in the world. Doesn't mean that he will be able to find a style that counters Cain, but everything together, I have no idea why hes a 5:1 underdog. 7 easy points about this fight and the way I believe will play out from start to finish and what to look for. This is all under the premise that Cain is Cain, not injury-riddled washed up Cain (which would be surprising) 1. To start, Cain easily dictates where this fight goes via wrestling/pressure-style/footwork/volume/strength/athleticism - that is unarguable. If Verdum decides to pull guard at any point, it will be on Cain's terms. 2. Cain will absolutely not let Werdum strike at kicking range (even though he could win there too) for more than the first 30 seconds, he will pressure him like he always does. 3. If Cain chooses to bang in the pocket in the center (which he likely will for a minute or so after the initial feel-out period because that's just his style) - he has far better boxing/brawling inside kicking range, hits way harder, has a better chin. 4. If Cain doesn't rock and finish Werdum in that exchange, he will likely press Werdum against the cage and dirty box the shit out of him, advantage incontestably for Cain Valasquez 5. If Cain mixes in takedown's, he will obviously be well aware of Werdum's full guard, will probably never end up in it, and the only submission threat is a triangle (armbars won't work on a guy like Cain unless he walks right into it, Werdum could never stay on top of Cain long enough to apply a sub if he got a miracle sweep, he didn't even sub Browne or Hunt from top position early in fights, which is insanely unlikely) - and Cain won't make the single most obvious mistake ever, which is not keeping his posture if in full guard. 6. Werdum will never be able to take Cain down besides a hail mary trip (he's good at trips) and Cain would quickly scramble away as he's squirmy and athletic as shit as a wrestler 7. At this point, if Werdum isn't finished already (unlikely IMO), Cain's cardio and the fact that they are sweaty as hell eliminates all hail mary subs for Werdum and it will either be a 5 round beatdown or finish in between the 2nd half of the 2nd-round through the 5th. Sorry man but the above quoted statement is just blasphemy in my opinion - not to argue that Cain is too big of a favorite, I can't hate on anyone trying to fade Werdum as a big dog vs an inactive fighter. But that Werdum is a better overall fighter or that this should be some sort of pickem is absurd. If you see a rationale, different path that this fight might take (besides just unpredictable insane shit like a Flying Armbar) please lay it out for me, I'm all for the some healthy debate with some solid logic involved so we can discuss the validity of our premises and see where we differ.

Sorry I worder it poorly, I didn't mean that this was a pick'em fight. I meant that Werdum has aquired enough experience to be almost formless and deal with a lot of world class fighters in a different way each time, in a very similar way to Mousasi, while Cain is the best at his style, but he still only has one style. I consider that to be a higher level of skill in Werdum. I'm not sure that he will be able to create a counter to Cain, but I wouldn't underestimate him. Don't underestimate the first man to beat Fedor, hes very very very good, and this is a Cain that has had an injury and lost continuity, also giving Werdum more time to prepare for him.
I'm not saying that he should be favored here, I do feel the odds are very very generous, but I think Werdum is a higher level overall fighter vs a random field, to clarify, it was poor wording by me.

Also a point is that Velasquez gets a lot of his edge by his relaxation, which causes more tense fighters like JDS and especially Lesnar to tire out a much faster rates, but Werdum isn't that type of fighter. He isn't going to leak energy like that over time, hes only a little more tense than Velasquez, and its probably closer to balance.

On June 09 2015 01:16 Minsk wrote: Show nested quote + On June 09 2015 00:53 soberstone wrote:   On June 09 2015 00:19 Minsk wrote: I like the line on Werdum and actually think Werdum is a higher level fighter than Velasquez overall. Combine that with Velasquez injury. I'm sure Werdum will have something up his sleeve to counter the specific style of Velasquez. It's not the easiest style to counter, but all the factors combined, I don't think that Velsaquez ego will be able to roll over Werdum. Werdum is very sneaky and tricky, and has a lot of styles, and is very good strategically, has continuity, his body is okay. I think overall, hes the best heavyweight in the world. Doesn't mean that he will be able to find a style that counters Cain, but everything together, I have no idea why hes a 5:1 underdog. 7 easy points about this fight and the way I believe will play out from start to finish and what to look for. This is all under the premise that Cain is Cain, not injury-riddled washed up Cain (which would be surprising) 1. To start, Cain easily dictates where this fight goes via wrestling/pressure-style/footwork/volume/strength/athleticism - that is unarguable. If Verdum decides to pull guard at any point, it will be on Cain's terms. 2. Cain will absolutely not let Werdum strike at kicking range (even though he could win there too) for more than the first 30 seconds, he will pressure him like he always does. 3. If Cain chooses to bang in the pocket in the center (which he likely will for a minute or so after the initial feel-out period because that's just his style) - he has far better boxing/brawling inside kicking range, hits way harder, has a better chin. 4. If Cain doesn't rock and finish Werdum in that exchange, he will likely press Werdum against the cage and dirty box the shit out of him, advantage incontestably for Cain Valasquez 5. If Cain mixes in takedown's, he will obviously be well aware of Werdum's full guard, will probably never end up in it, and the only submission threat is a triangle (armbars won't work on a guy like Cain unless he walks right into it, Werdum could never stay on top of Cain long enough to apply a sub if he got a miracle sweep, he didn't even sub Browne or Hunt from top position early in fights, which is insanely unlikely) - and Cain won't make the single most obvious mistake ever, which is not keeping his posture if in full guard. 6. Werdum will never be able to take Cain down besides a hail mary trip (he's good at trips) and Cain would quickly scramble away as he's squirmy and athletic as shit as a wrestler 7. At this point, if Werdum isn't finished already (unlikely IMO), Cain's cardio and the fact that they are sweaty as hell eliminates all hail mary subs for Werdum and it will either be a 5 round beatdown or finish in between the 2nd half of the 2nd-round through the 5th. Sorry man but the above quoted statement is just blasphemy in my opinion - not to argue that Cain is too big of a favorite, I can't hate on anyone trying to fade Werdum as a big dog vs an inactive fighter. But that Werdum is a better overall fighter or that this should be some sort of pickem is absurd. If you see a rationale, different path that this fight might take (besides just unpredictable insane shit like a Flying Armbar) please lay it out for me, I'm all for the some healthy debate with some solid logic involved so we can discuss the validity of our premises and see where we differ. Sorry I worder it poorly, I didn't mean that this was a pick'em fight. I meant that Werdum has aquired enough experience to be almost formless and deal with a lot of world class fighters in a different way each time, in a very similar way to Mousasi, while Cain is the best at his style, but he still only has one style. I consider that to be a higher level of skill in Werdum. I'm not sure that he will be able to create a counter to Cain, but I wouldn't underestimate him. Don't underestimate the first man to beat Fedor, hes very very very good, and this is a Cain that has had an injury and lost continuity, also giving Werdum more time to prepare for him. I'm not saying that he should be favored here, I do feel the odds are very very generous, but I think Werdum is a higher level overall fighter vs a random field, to clarify, it was poor wording by me. Also a point is that Velasquez gets a lot of his edge by his relaxation, which causes more tense fighters like JDS and especially Lesnar to tire out a much faster rates, but Werdum isn't that type of fighter. He isn't going to leak energy like that over time, hes only a little more tense than Velasquez, and its probably closer to balance.

This is a fair point but that's one of the reason's Cain isn't going to keep this at kickboxing range. Werdum does have above average cardio but it's never been tested at altitude against a fighter that's mauling him.

When Werdum fought Browne, in a fight he was +200 in just two fights ago, I bet him, so I respect his game and improvement, but if you re-watch that fight, Browne drops Werdum once and than is absolutely gassed after the first round (severe rib bruise or broken rib depending who you listen to) and Werdum got to just stand there vs a fighter that literally couldn't fight. It's pathetic to watch Browne in rd 2-5, he is completely gassed and Werdum can't even drop him which was more of a testament to Browne's durability, but also a lack of punching power by Werdum.

Then, he knocks out a fat-ass 2-weeks notice Mark Hunt with a slow-motion flying knee that Hunt just dove into (nice trick by Werdum, but not high level stuff from Hunt, lol). So his cardio in that fight was only really tested because it was at altitude and Hunt dropped him (everyone seems to) but he got on top and than the fight ended in the early 2nd.

Same thing vs Big Country. Fat-ass who gassed after 1 round. Werdum looked great and could relax as much as he wanted.

When has his cardio and ability to endure pressure been tested to where we can believe it's even close to Cain, who's cardio is right along Mighty Mouse in the p4p cardio dominance conversation?

I just don't see this fight going Werdum's way outside of a banana peel slip by Cain.

There's nothing in Werdum's wins that give me any reason to think he can win even a marginal percent of the time. The trend has been that heavy weight underdogs are the way to go and I could certainly be wrong but I don't think that applies when the dog's chances aren't boosted by a high-likelyhood of KO (in other words, the proverbial punches chance for Werdum is significantly lower than almost any heavyweight fight I can imagine)

never been tested at altitude against a fighter that's mauling him.

He fought Mark Hunt in Mexico City and he was being mauled early on.

Actually its Cain who has never fought in Mexico


Also about tense and relaxed fighters I cant think of a HW more relaxed than Werdum he actually looks sloppy because of it, not like its the only thing about cardio though

Just heard Pendred interviewed.... been in Mexico for 6 weeks training. I'm gonna hedge my bet and stay away from that fight.

STRAIGHT WAGER RISKING TO WIN
Remove
MU CATHAL PENDRED (CATHAL PENDRED vrs AUGUSTO MONTANO) +135 $20.00 $27.00

Hedged him su with the parlay I laid with Montano on.

On June 09 2015 02:46 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + never been tested at altitude against a fighter that's mauling him. He fought Mark Hunt in Mexico City and he was being mauled early on. Actually its Cain who has never fought in Mexico Also about tense and relaxed fighters I cant think of a HW more relaxed than Werdum he actually looks sloppy because of it, not like its the only thing about cardio though

maul
môl/Submit
verb
1.
(of an animal) wound (a person or animal) by scratching and tearing.
"the herdsmen were mauled by lions"

I'm using the adjective maul to describe the wrestling/punching in close style which is the opposite of Mark Hunt did in that fight or ever would do. Not being a smart-ass, just wanted to clarify what I mean when I imagine Cain mauling Werdum.

This is Werdum from 2 days ago. The caption to the picture says: "I arrived weighing 114kg, and now I'm 108kg." 114 kg is 251 pounds; 108 kg is 238 pounds.

It is hard to pick against Cain in this fight, but Werdum is a live dog. This is heavyweight so one shot can change the fight pretty fast and on top of that his bjj is the best in the division and especially in the guard . Add to this the fact that Cain has been out for close to 2 years and this odds are not looking so hot.
I like the u 2.5 line cause If Cain dominates the fight I don't see Werdum lasting very long and if he is going to catch Velasquez with something it will be early.

On June 09 2015 00:53 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On June 08 2015 23:52 soberstone wrote:   On June 08 2015 19:58 PuertoRican wrote: Mexico City is at elevation, so keep that in mind when betting. The guy who is most likely to gas is Todhunter, as he's fighting on short notice, dropping to 170 for the first time, and never goes over 1.5 rounds in his fights. My only bet thus far is 3 units on Cathal Pendred +135. What do you see in Pendred v Montano that's making you throw down? I'm not saying it's a bad bet, I just don't see it, wondering your rationale, ty Pendred is the better grappler imo, and doesn't gas as hard as Montano. Granted, they're fighting at high elevation, so it will probably be a shit-fest with a possible finish in round 3. I also didn't like Montano's debut (it was in Mexico City). His offense and cardio against the smallest guy in the weightclass was pretty sad. I think Pendred will do what he does and find himself on Montano's back at some point. Montano won't have the size and strength advantage like he had against his opponent in his UFC debut. I'm surprised the UFC matched Montano up with Pendred, since it will most likely be the worst fight on the card.

Yup just like I remember, Montaño is awful, bad TDD, bad striking and terrible cardio. Pendred is bad but IMO dodger is way worst.

On June 09 2015 03:47 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On June 09 2015 02:46 Baalim wrote:   never been tested at altitude against a fighter that's mauling him. He fought Mark Hunt in Mexico City and he was being mauled early on. Actually its Cain who has never fought in Mexico Also about tense and relaxed fighters I cant think of a HW more relaxed than Werdum he actually looks sloppy because of it, not like its the only thing about cardio though maul môl/Submit verb 1. (of an animal) wound (a person or animal) by scratching and tearing. "the herdsmen were mauled by lions" I'm using the adjective maul to describe the wrestling/punching in close style which is the opposite of Mark Hunt did in that fight or ever would do. Not being a smart-ass, just wanted to clarify what I mean when I imagine Cain mauling Werdum.

I see, well I think that Werdum and Cain have the best 2 cardios of the HW division, so the 2k altitude would be a HUGE factor for any HW fight except this one, I watched the Hunt vs Werdum fight live ring side and Mark Hunt was breathing heavy just by walking to the octagon lol

$100 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/43601...n-ufc-188-velasquez-vs-werdum-T-free/

----------

If it was a charisma contest, Werdum via first round KO. Guy is just so damn cool and down to earth. Shame I don't see this fight as that close or intriguing as most though.

I've seen him in person at Cobrinha's (I did 30 lessons there on a $100 group-on and just stopped via lazy) and didn't really get a chance to say whats up to him but you could tell he was just on the level with all of his guys from his gym in Venice that he brought over to train with Cobrinha, all his the White belts for God Sake, and had super jovial relationships with all of his guys and was really nice to everybody.

Cain on the other hand is just super quiet and introspective. I don't think he's dumb or has a shitty personality like most people in the MMA media just joke about regularly at this point. I just think he's a genuinely nice quiet man who doesn't want to be anything other than a fighter in the public eye - I can respect that.

We have people like Jon Jones in the sport and yet the fans and MMA media get down on fighters like Weidman or Cain who are injury-prone and quiet but seemingly extremely good guys just because they don't cut promo's in interviews or take on a 2nd personality for better public consumption.

I say fuck that, if that's who you are and you're the baddest man on the planet, that's enough.

/end soapbox rant

I think Cain actually has more charisma than Werdum. In a deep subtle way.
People certainly show him more respect.

It's like I think the odds are great on Werdum, but from an animal perspective Cain is more of a man than Werdum...and just that single fact might be the most important fact that wont let Werdum win. Thats why everyone is saying Cain is going to win and favored, and it definitely worries me. To where I won't put any more money on Werdum.

Actually I might put more money on Werdum. Thinking about the Alvarez fight now. That fight is very interesting.

Does Alvarez have any edges against Melendez?
It might be like the Faber vs Edgar fight where its really hard for the slightly inferior fighter to win if he has no edge areas...?

better hands

Just watched some of Werdum's recent fights. Against Nogueira and Roy Nelson he was getting stuck and bullied against the cage and had real trouble dealing with forward pressure.

Cain is going to absolutely destroy him and that -110 line for TKO/KO is great for a big bet.

On June 10 2015 13:15 northsails wrote: better hands

Yeah, I think thats a vacuum analytic though. If you look at it in a vacuum, you're like he has better hands, but I don't think his hands give him any edge against Gilbert Melendez, I already thought/accounted that.

I think this card is going to be very dissapointing, not that its good either, and Melendez vs Alvarez wont really be able to save it.

Anyone else think its outrageously stupid for Werdum to be training an entire month+ in a place with no cage? Feels like one of Cains primary strategies will be to stuff him up against the fence. And it's not like just dropping guard against the fence is a great idea or even that easy. A wrestler can pin you up against that thing and make pulling guard incredibly hard.

Also I hope he's got some big strong wrestlers there that they haven't shown us, or thats a really poor training camp.