UFC 188: Velasquez vs. Werdum - Page 3

I think the biggest factor here is Cain is just way too fast for Werdum. I thought against Hunt, Werdum would be able to maintain distance but he's just way too stationary and slow. Cain will be able to dash in and hit Werdum with a combo before Werdum can even react. I think Werdums only good chance here is timing a nice straight right down the pipe as Cain comes in, as Cain tends to lead with his face wide open.

I've lost too much betting against Werdum and not knowing how Cain is after this string of injuries, I think I'm just going to sit this one out and watch as a fan.

Werdum's most recent fight. It only shows round 1, but that's all you really need to see, as round 2 was similar to round 1 prior to Werdum landing a jumping knee out of nowhere on Mark Hunt.





This video shows the knee.

To be fair not many guys do well if being forced to strike with Hunt.

On June 09 2015 20:25 PuertoRican wrote: $100 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/43601...n-ufc-188-velasquez-vs-werdum-T-free/

$100 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/43656...n-ufc-188-velasquez-vs-werdum-T-free/

On June 11 2015 08:50 northsails wrote: Just watched some of Werdum's recent fights. Against Nogueira and Roy Nelson he was getting stuck and bullied against the cage and had real trouble dealing with forward pressure. Cain is going to absolutely destroy him and that -110 line for TKO/KO is great for a big bet.

Co-sign. Just waiting for this prop to be available on Maker. This was point #4 of my 7-point breakdown of this fight (the cage-fighting / dirty boxing aspect). It's annoying how everyone thinks this fight is close on this forum and others I've seen, yet the line says the opposite. Wish I could get better odds.

I'm so completely confident that besides a fluke, this fight is incredibly easy for Cain, easier than JDS. I'll be completely happy to eat crow if I'm wrong.

I actually like taking both Cain by KO at -110 and Werdum ML. I think thats excellent.

Another bet. I like the under lines on these. I think Marquardt is going to bed early, alvarez melendez are going to war, and I doubt Werdum lasts more than 2 rds. Something will probably bust it ofcourse, but those odds are juicy.

FABRICIO WERDUM v CAIN VELASQUEZ under 2.5 +115

EDDIE ALVAREZ v GILBERT MELENDEZ under 2.5 +185

NATE MARQUARDT v KELVIN GASTELUM under 1.5 +161

Risking: $20 To Win: $299.86

On June 12 2015 02:01 soberstone wrote: Another bet. I like the under lines on these. I think Marquardt is going to bed early, alvarez melendez are going to war, and I doubt Werdum lasts more than 2 rds. Something will probably bust it ofcourse, but those odds are juicy. FABRICIO WERDUM v CAIN VELASQUEZ under 2.5 +115 EDDIE ALVAREZ v GILBERT MELENDEZ under 2.5 +185 NATE MARQUARDT v KELVIN GASTELUM under 1.5 +161 Risking: $20 To Win: $299.86

Gastelum could finish the fight in the first round, but he's moving up to 185 to fight a bigger + stronger guy. Marquardt fights much better at 185 cuz he doesn't have to starve himself. Marquardt's chin is weaker these days, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it go past 1.5 rounds.

I can see a potential finish in the Eddie/Gilbert fight, but this is going the distance most of the time.

For Cain/Fabricio, I like o2.5 rounds and will bet it at some point. I think it will drop a little more on BM.

Also, they're using the big cage for this event, and they're fighting at high altitude, so don't expect a lot of guys to go out there and try to go for an early finish aside from Todhunter.

"Welterweight newcomer Andrew Todhunter has been deemed medically unable to compete in his UFC 188 bout against Albert Tumenov this Saturday in Mexico City.

There will be no replacement bout, and the card will proceed with 11 matches."

http://www.ufc.com/news/Todhunter-Tumenov-Bout-Off-UFC-188-Card

----------

FUCK! This was the lock of the card...

On June 12 2015 04:32 PuertoRican wrote: "Welterweight newcomer Andrew Todhunter has been deemed medically unable to compete in his UFC 188 bout against Albert Tumenov this Saturday in Mexico City. There will be no replacement bout, and the card will proceed with 11 matches." http://www.ufc.com/news/Todhunter-Tumenov-Bout-Off-UFC-188-Card ---------- FUCK! This was the lock of the card...

Yup, had him in my $100 parlay at -415 Tumenov GG.

Does that cancel the entire parlay?

On June 12 2015 11:22 Nazgul wrote: Does that cancel the entire parlay?

No.

If it's a 2-man parlay, it turns into a single bet. A 3-man parlay turns into a 2-man parlay. And so on.

Props available on Maker now.

Took Valesquez by KO/TKO/DQ @ -130 for $54 to win $40

Took Gastellum by KO/TKO/DQ @ +225 for $40 to win $90

On June 12 2015 17:37 soberstone wrote: Props available on Maker now. Took Valesquez by KO/TKO/DQ @ -130 for $54 to win $40 Took Gastellum by KO/TKO/DQ @ +225 for $40 to win $90

Kelvin likes to sub people when he has them hurt. He's got decent power, but not 1-punch KO power.

Still undecided how I'll play Cain/Werdum and the Rosa fight, so I skipped the opening props for those fights.

The odds for Torres by submission is laughable.

On June 12 2015 17:58 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On June 12 2015 17:37 soberstone wrote: Props available on Maker now. Took Valesquez by KO/TKO/DQ @ -130 for $54 to win $40 Took Gastellum by KO/TKO/DQ @ +225 for $40 to win $90 Kelvin likes to sub people when he has them hurt. He's got decent power, but not 1-punch KO power. Still undecided how I'll play Cain/Werdum and the Rosa fight, so I skipped the opening props for those fights. The odds for Torres by submission is laughable.

He definitely does have KO power, dunno what your definition of '1-punch KO power is'



Marquardt is old and even older in fighter years, has been knocked out cold in 2 of his last 4 fights and will be significantly slower than Gastellum and will probably be eating bombs on the chin right from the start.

Added Torres by decision for $30 @ +110. A little worried about a sub (even though Torres has never finished an opponent) but I think this is a pretty good line.

Gastellum inside the distance is at 2.17 compared to his ML of 1.222
and Gastellum by Submission is at 5.00 along with Gastellum by TKO/KO at 3.4.....which confuses me, because are there other ways to win inside the distance than KO/TKO/Submission ?

Why is 2.17 ITD and 3.4+5 for the combined types?

On June 12 2015 18:42 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On June 12 2015 17:58 PuertoRican wrote:   On June 12 2015 17:37 soberstone wrote: Props available on Maker now. Took Valesquez by KO/TKO/DQ @ -130 for $54 to win $40 Took Gastellum by KO/TKO/DQ @ +225 for $40 to win $90 Kelvin likes to sub people when he has them hurt. He's got decent power, but not 1-punch KO power. Still undecided how I'll play Cain/Werdum and the Rosa fight, so I skipped the opening props for those fights. The odds for Torres by submission is laughable. He definitely does have KO power, dunno what your definition of '1-punch KO power is'

1-punch KO power is just that; the ability to knock someone out with one punch.

Regarding Kelvin's punching power, he can obviously TKO someone, but he isn't known as a heavy handed fighter. He uses his speed and technique to light people up, and then go for the finish.

I go off of what I've seen, and I think Kelvin would attempt to submit Nate more than half the time he had him hurt.

gL with your bet.

I have

Werdum ML @ 5.00
Melendez ML @1.6
Gastellum Submission @5.00
Gastellum TKO/KO @ 3.43
Cain TKO/KO @ 1.769

I wanted Cain/Werdum U2.5 before, just thought it was more likely than O2.5, but the more I thought about it the more I'm starting to doubt it. Werdum talks about it being a "who lasts longer fight", which is very important for that.