UFC 188: Velasquez vs. Werdum - Page 4

Gastellum sometimess doesn't like to finish people, he just doesnt have that intent. But I don't think that will be the case here.

Marquardt is a very savvy submission grappler who hasn't lost by submission in over 12 years (since his Pancrase days).

I highly doubt Kelvin submits him.

I understand what you are saying about him going for the submission once he has his opponent hurt, I just don't see the Marquardt fight going that way. I see him either shutting his lights out completely or just tuning him up for 3 rounds. I just like the odds, not saying it happens more than half the time.

Much like the Melendez v Alvarez fight, which I see going the distance most of the time, but I can easily see either finding a finish 20 percent of the time a piece (in a fight where both are getting older and will probably just decide to throw down since Alvarez has very good TDD and wants to brawl) which is all it takes to make it a sound bet.

We shall see.

Why people are betting under 2.5 and KOs? You guys are aware that Werdum hast lost times and only 1 by KO right?

Yes Cains way to victory is bully him against the cage, where its hard to finish somebody and if he takes down Werdum he will be extremely careful and wont get wild with GnP, I really dont like that even bet on under 2.5 rounds at all

On June 13 2015 00:11 Baalim wrote: Why people are betting under 2.5 and KOs? You guys are aware that Werdum hast lost times and only 1 by KO right? Yes Cains way to victory is bully him against the cage, where its hard to finish somebody and if he takes down Werdum he will be extremely careful and wont get wild with GnP, I really dont like that even bet on under 2.5 rounds at all

Every Cain path I see to victory has Cain pounding out a tired and deflated Werdum with those right curly punches from the top in a corner, or curly punches, or elbows on the ground, or a knee against the cage. Point being the deflated exausted Werdum...Cain never slows down and all it takes is a loss of focus, Cain gets a small edge and Werdum is down a slippery slope to getting knocked out. 5 rounds of 5 minutes each its a long time, he can't last long after falling behind as Cain never slows down. If Cain wins and he doesn't knock him out, I would be shocked. Plus he looks like hes into the feeling of wanting to hurt Werdum.

On June 12 2015 19:58 PuertoRican wrote:

Cain Velasquez (242) vs. Fabricio Werdum (236)
Eddie Alvarez (156) vs. Gilbert Melendez (156)
Kelvin Gastelum (185) vs. Nate Marquardt (184)
Yair Rodriguez (145) vs. Charles Rosa (145)
Angela Hill (115) vs. Tecia Torres (114)
Chico Camus (126) vs. Henry Cejudo (125)
Drew Dober (155) vs. Efrain Escudero (156)
Alejandro Perez (136) vs. Patrick Williams (136)
Johnny Case (155) vs. Francisco Trevino (154)
Augusto Montano (170) vs. Cathal Pendred (170)
Gabriel Benitez (145) vs. Clay Collard (146)

Cejudo made 125 which I love but he looked so fuckin pissed about doin it, was kinda funny

And also I have to make my obligatory 'look at the size of his dome comment'. Just incredible dome-body ratio.

My bets thus far:

Cathal Pendred +135 $30 for $40.50
Pendred/Montano o1.5 -130 $13 for $10
Collard/Benitez u2.5 +135 $10 for $13.50
Alvarez KO/TKO/DQ +750 $5 for $37.50
Marquardt submission +1200 $2 for $24
Hill KO/TKO/DQ +900 $2 for $18
Hill decision +400 $10 for $40
Werdum submission +900 $3 for $27
Escudero submission +750 $3 for $22.50
Williams decision +310 $5 for $15.50
Drew Dober -145 $21.75 for $15

On June 13 2015 01:39 PuertoRican wrote: My bets thus far: Cathal Pendred +135 $30 for $40.50 Pendred/Montano o1.5 -130 $13 for $10 Collard/Benitez u2.5 +135 $10 for $13.50 Alvarez KO/TKO/DQ +750 $5 for $37.50 Marquardt submission +1200 $2 for $24 Hill KO/TKO/DQ +900 $2 for $18 Hill decision +400 $10 for $40 Werdum submission +900 $3 for $27 Escudero submission +750 $3 for $22.50 Williams decision +310 $5 for $15.50 Drew Dober -145 $21.75 for $15

I like your Alvarez KO and Williams decision bets. Those were two more I'm considering adding.

Considering Williams should be able to wrestle-fuck the TUF Mexican winner if he even knows how to wrestle and should not really be able to finish him, I don't see how decision at +310 is anything worse than solid.

If you're bored, there's an MMA event on right now on AXS TV. There's a few UFC and Bellator veterans on the card: http://www.sherdog.com/events/CES-MMA-29-ONeil-vs-Steele-45863

If you have Comcast, you'll most likely have AXS TV. There's 5 fights left on the card.

Final bets going into the card:

Straight Bets:
Cain/Verdum u 2.5 (+115) - $60.00 to win $69.00
Pendred > Montano - $20.00 to win $27.00

Props:
Cain by KO/TKO/DQ (-135) - $54.00 to win $40.00
Gastelum by KO/TKO/DQ (+225) - $40.00 to win $90.00
Torres by Decision (+110) - $30.00 to win $33.00
Alvarez by KO/TKO/DQ (+749) - $15.00 to win $112.35
Williams by Decision (+310) - $15.00 to win $46.50

Parlays:
Cain (-480) + Gastelum (-430) + Rosa (-225) + Case (-360) + Montano(-165) - $30 to win $102.44
Gastelum (-430) + Rosa (-225) - $100 to win $78.04
Verdum/Cain u 2.5 (+115) + Gil/Eddie u 2.5 (+185) + Kelvin/Marquardt u 1.5 (+161) - $20 to win $299.86

My final bets:

10 $ Cain by KO/TKO -147
10 $ Cain/Werdum u2.5 +100
10 $ Cain + Melendez -108
3 $ Yair Rodriguez +160

I decided not betting on Pendred only because the fight is on Mexico.

hey puertorican/baal how's cain's spanish? for me he sounds like a natural speaker while werdum has a very noticeable brazilian accent when he's speaking spanish. But Werdum says he speaks spanish better than Cain. I have the feeling he's just trolling.

-edit also lol @ alejandicto haha this is awful man i hate ufc brazil because of that, decision fights 98% of the time favor the brazilian

On June 13 2015 14:48 Raidern wrote: hey puertorican/baal how's cain's spanish? for me he sounds like a natural speaker while werdum has a very noticeable brazilian accent when he's speaking spanish. But Werdum says he speaks spanish better than Cain. I have the feeling he's just trolling. -edit also lol @ alejandicto haha this is awful man i hate ufc brazil because of that, decision fights 98% of the time favor the brazilian

Werdum has the better Spanish. I can hear his Brazilian accent, but it helps him pronounce certain words more clearly. Cain says short sentences and usually says uhh or pauses to think what he is going to say when someone asks him a question. Werdum speaks more freely, especially when he does Spanish commentary for various UFC events; he doesn't have to worry about switching from Portuguese to English to Spanish during that time.





Skip to 27:15 of the video. I thought it was funny when Rogan turned to the translator after he asked Cain a question. The translator looked so eager to fulfill his role... xD

Anyone think the Cejudo line is a bit off? Doesn't feel right to justify > 10:1 odds on a still unrefined fighter even if he's clearly athletically superior. Not really too sure what to make of Chico either though since I've seen him fight twice and the first time, I thought he needed to be cut asap while the 2nd time, last time, his striking actually looked pretty crisp even though it was against slow Brad Pickett. Guess it's going to be a fight where the odds shoulda been a bit closer but Cejudo still controls heavily at most times.

Always have thought Eddie was chronically overrated. Was pretty nice watching the Cerrone fight and seeing him exposed to a degree. On the train of thought that Gil is going to look a bit crappier from every fight here on out though so should be a fun one. Hope I'm wrong about that since I like Gil though.

Cain by TKO odds dropping fast.

On June 13 2015 20:27 iakim322 wrote: Anyone think the Cejudo line is a bit off? Doesn't feel right to justify > 10:1 odds on a still unrefined fighter even if he's clearly athletically superior. Not really too sure what to make of Chico either though since I've seen him fight twice and the first time, I thought he needed to be cut asap while the 2nd time, last time, his striking actually looked pretty crisp even though it was against slow Brad Pickett. Guess it's going to be a fight where the odds shoulda been a bit closer but Cejudo still controls heavily at most times.

Dunno if Cejudo's line is off, but Camus won't win the fight.

If you think Cejudo's line is off, I'd recommend betting Camus +8.5 points @ +163 on 5dimes. It means that Camus would only need 1 judge to give him 1 round, and the bet wins. For example, you will win if the judges score cards look like this: 30-27, 30-27, 29-28 for Cejudo.

Does it start now? UFC app says it starts in 30 min

On June 13 2015 22:32 gebbstet wrote: Does it start now? UFC app says it starts in 30 min

Starts in 25 minutes (23:59 LP.net) because the first fight was cancelled yesterday. (Tumenov vs. Todhunter)

Camus has no outs that I can see.... when I first saw the odds my gut was to bet him if he got to +700 but now that he has I've sorta realized that I think the -1200 is probably closer to the truth considering the matchup and fact that it's a flyweight fight and Cejudo looked great physically at weigh-ins.

Additionally, if you are looking to bet him, wait until right before the fight as now the bookies will just be competing for the late money to hedge ALL of the money that has come in on Cejudo's side in an insanely 1-sided way.