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UFC 187: Johnson vs. Cormier |
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PuertoRican   United States. May 17 2015 03:32. Posts 13023 | | |
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PuertoRican   United States. May 17 2015 03:38. Posts 13023 | | |
First impression of the match-ups:
• Johnson vs. Cormier (dunno)
• Weidman > Belfort
• Cerrone > Makdessi
• Browne > Arlovski
• Benavidez > Moraga
• Dodson > Makovsky
• DHK > Burkman
• Hall > Natal
• Namajunas > Ansaroff
• Covington > Pyle
• Makhachev vs. Kuntz (dunno)
• Scoggins > Sampo |
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jvilla777   Australia. May 17 2015 04:21. Posts 1348 | | |
On this card, I don't see why the favourites will not win, with the exception of DC vs Rumble. IMO Rumble is the favourite not DC.
I don't know anything about Makhachev vs Kuntz and Scoggins vs Sampo.
This card is looking good. |
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longple: ur missing the point! this is an attempt to get away from the bumhuntmentality! | |
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Minsk   United States. May 17 2015 06:02. Posts 1558 | | |
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Daut   United States. May 17 2015 06:17. Posts 8955 | | |
think cormier should be a much larger favorite than -135. |
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NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut | |
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PuertoRican   United States. May 17 2015 06:32. Posts 13023 | | |
| On May 17 2015 03:21 jvilla777 wrote:
On this card, I don't see why the favourites will not win, with the exception of DC vs Rumble. IMO Rumble is the favourite not DC.
I don't know anything about Makhachev vs Kuntz and Scoggins vs Sampo.
This card is looking good. |
The juice is so high for 80% or more of the fights, so I'll probably bet on Burkman at +190 or better and wait for live betting, or maybe just not bet this card.
This card is stacked from top to bottom, so I don't mind just watching the fights and not betting it. |
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Nazgul   Netherlands. May 17 2015 09:19. Posts 7080 | | |
Cormier Johnson -127 381.0 300
Cerrone Makdessi -305 305 100
Dodson Makovsky -400 400.0 100
What a card. |
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You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo | Last edit: 17/05/2015 09:19 |
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gebbstet   Sweden. May 17 2015 13:27. Posts 391 | | |
A part of me really wants belfort to KO weidman just to shut all the trtwhiners up. |
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Floofy   Canada. May 17 2015 16:22. Posts 8708 | | |
If AJ vs Cormier happened 7 months ago, Cormier would be like a -400 favorite or even more.
But Cormier losing to Jones grealty reduced the hyper around him, while AJ CRUSHING the guy who almost beats Jones greatly increased the hype around him.
The real question is, how easily can Cormier take down AJ. If he can do it easily, he should be a much heavier favorite. If he can't do it, he most likely won't stand a chance. |
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james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;( | |
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Spitfiree   Bulgaria. May 17 2015 16:36. Posts 9634 | | |
Feel like only bet worht putting on those 2 are AJ by KO/TKO or DC by decision |
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| Last edit: 17/05/2015 16:36 |
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Floofy   Canada. May 17 2015 17:57. Posts 8708 | | |
| On May 17 2015 15:36 Spitfiree wrote:
Feel like only bet worht putting on those 2 are AJ by KO/TKO or DC by decision |
I'm not sure i agree with you.
all of AJ's losses were because he got finished. He never lost a decision. DC has a decent finishing rate too, and its 5 rounds. Not sure i like DC by decision at +180.
And then, AJ inside distance is +153, while AJ ML is +120. The difference is pretty Slim. I think its possible AJ wins by decision. Cormier was never finished before. |
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james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;( | |
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Daut   United States. May 17 2015 19:40. Posts 8955 | | |
Agree with floofy.
Think the moment DC gets AJ down one time the fight is over. He has never won a fight where he has been taken down. Vitor did not even take him down and won the fight by submission anyway. AJ has to either finish him or stay off the ground for 5 rounds. Good luck keeping DC off you for that long. |
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NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut | Last edit: 17/05/2015 19:42 |
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PuertoRican   United States. May 17 2015 20:13. Posts 13023 | | |
| On May 17 2015 18:40 Daut wrote:
Agree with floofy.
Think the moment DC gets AJ down one time the fight is over. He has never won a fight where he has been taken down. Vitor did not even take him down and won the fight by submission anyway. AJ has to either finish him or stay off the ground for 5 rounds. Good luck keeping DC off you for that long. |
Whether AJ wins or not, it isn't fair to keep bringing up his weight and/or cardio issues from 3+ years ago.
AJ went from KO`ing Charlie Brenneman at welterweight, to fighting Vitor at "middleweight" in his next fight. I say "middleweight" because AJ came in 11 pounds overweight and weighed in at 197 pounds. Vitor had it in the rules that he would only fight AJ if he didn't weigh more than 205 pounds the next day, and so AJ fought at 204 pounds. AJ only being able to rehydrate 7 pounds showed in his fight, as he threw everything he had into a combo or two, then gassed out in the first round, which lead to an easy RnC by Vitor.
Once AJ moved up to light heavyweight in August 2012, his cardio began to improve. I noticed a big change in his cardio when he moved up to heavyweight in March 2013 and fought Andrei Arlovski, and won via 3-round decision. After the Arlovski fight, he fought once more before being signed back to the UFC, and you saw his improved cardio at light heavyweight when he beat Phil Davis by unanimous decision.
TLDR: Yes, DC can make this fight hell for AJ, but bringing up AJ's past fights when he had cardio issues isn't fair, especially if you're trying to honestly cap this fight and put down a bet on either guy.
p.s. Yes, I notice you were referencing being taken down, but AJ was only in that position due to his own mistakes, not because Vitor used some slick move to get him to the mat. Poor cardio led to a quick loss to Vitor. |
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Rekrul is a newb | Last edit: 17/05/2015 20:17 |
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Daut   United States. May 17 2015 20:29. Posts 8955 | | |
The point wasn't that he gassed out and was taken down by guys he shouldn't have. The point was, the moment the fight hit the floor it was over; he looked like a white belt and got submitted instantly. Sure he has probably improved on the ground, and is much better at preventing the fight from going to the ground as it gets into deeper rounds, but DC ragdolled Josh Barnett for 5 rounds, I think he can get AJ down and make him look like a white belt again. |
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NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut | |
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soberstone   United States. May 17 2015 21:10. Posts 2662 | | |
So much betting value on the favorites on this card, I'm stoked I'm going to be making big bets and I get to watch my favorite fighter squash a Brazillian Juice-Head.
DC > Johnson - Plenty of value on DC at near pickem odds. Anthony Johnson can KO anyone in the world. This is a firm possibility. But 50 percent? Nah. And the minute DC is able to make Johnson expend some real energy dealing with fighting off takedowns and getting up, the odds shift WAYYYYY in DC's favor. I can't believe DC's stock has apparently gone down from the Jon Jones fight. I don't think anyone is appreciating how well he did vs Jones. He absolutely surpassed my expectations. This is a fantastic fight, but I don't think its as close as the betting public sees it.
Weidman > Vitor - Kinda similar to the main event, except that instead of a prime Anthony Johnson, we have what I suspect will be horrible incarnation of Belfort. I think Weidman would run through the best Vitor we've ever seen, so I'm fully confident he will finish the version of Vitor that we will see.
Cerrone > Makdessi - Makdessi is one of the few dogs on this card that I would actually consider betting at +330, but I'm just gonna stay away from this one and root for Cerrone. Obviously Cerrone is the better fighter but the odds are wide and you never know when that inconsistent, worse version of Cerrone might show up. Maybe that's completely past him but I'm not sold yet, and Makdessi's previous opponent - Shane Campbell - who he steamrolled was like a much worse version of Cerrone, so...
Browne > Arlovski - This could be that heavy-weight parlay killer but I just don't see how Arlovski is gonna deal with the athleticism and mobility of Brown. Odds are pretty wide but I'll still include Browne in a parlay or two. I think this could easily go the distance too with both fighters having times where they are tentative and give opponents a lot respect. Both guys did so early with Schaub, but atleast Browne eventually knocked his block off.
Dodson >>>>>> Makovski - -385 is SUCH a good price for Dodson. TERRIBLE matchup for Makovsky. He may land an early takedown or two (I doubt it) - but that's the extent of his offense in this fight. Dodson will probably finish him.
DHK > Burkman - I like Burkman at +220. This fight is close.
Hall > Natal - Another favorite I like at -290. Hall underwhelmes but still, what is Natal gonna do him? Obviously submission is his only path to victory, but I don't see him taking down Hall at all. Hall even out-wrestled Gastellum at times. The only question is whether Hall does it impressively or not.
Thug Rose > Ansaroff - I don't know shit about Ansaroff, but will watch tape to determine if there is value on Rose. Obviously UFC is gonna match-make with the intention of her winning, so my only question is if it's a straight mismatch or a legit test for Thug Rose.
Covington > Pyle - Won't touch this one as Pyle is a quality fighter and Covington's upside is clear but hasn't been tested.
Scoggins > Sampo - Easy money at -365. Scoggins hasn't lost a round besides 1, maybe 2 (arguable), vs a tough wrestler in Dustin Ortiz. Besides that, he is an offensive dynamo who was wrecking John Moraga before idiotically giving up a guillotine. I trust the lesson has been learned.
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drone666   Brasil. May 17 2015 22:20. Posts 1821 | | |
parlay dodson + cerrone + weidman/belfort not DEC |
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Dont listen to anything I say | |
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PuertoRican   United States. May 17 2015 23:41. Posts 13023 | | |
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soberstone   United States. May 17 2015 23:54. Posts 2662 | | |
Already laid down a shit ton (for me atleast). Needless to say if Scoggins, Dodson, or Hall lose I'm fucked. Don't see it happening tho. I think they should be bigger favorites than Joe B and I think Joe B is a lock too.
Scoggins + Hall + Burkman + Dodson + Benevidez + Browne + Weidman + Cormier $10.00 +2,517
Scoggins + Hall + Dodson + Benevidez + Browne + Weidman + Cormier $20.00 +595
Scoggins + Hall + Dodson + Benevidez + Browne + Weidman $40.00 +293
Scoggins + Hall + Dodson + Benevidez + Weidman $80.00 +214
Scoggins + Hall + Dodson + Benevidez $100.00 +162
Benevidez + Brown + Weidman + Cormier $100.00 +221
Scoggins + Hall + Dodson $200.00 +120
Burkman > Kim $20.00 +225
Added Makdesi ML for $30 - +325
Added Makdesi ML for $20 - +370
Added Cobington/Pyle Over 1.5 rds for $40 -170 |
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| Last edit: 21/05/2015 01:57 |
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northsails   Bulgaria. May 18 2015 00:08. Posts 410 | | |
This is a great card. I am betting big on Cormier here. I see a lot of simillar opinions in this thread. His pressure and wrestling I believe will be too much for Rumble to handle. Also DC's very good at keeping himself out of danger in stand up and is very hard to hit. Ton of value in DC at -130.
Also I like Arlovski at +350 ( not really impressed with Browne ). I can see upset here.
Price on Dodson is good too. |
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PuertoRican   United States. May 18 2015 00:28. Posts 13023 | | |
| On May 17 2015 23:08 northsails wrote:
This is a great card. I am betting big on Cormier here. I see a lot of simillar opinions in this thread. His pressure and wrestling I believe will be too much for Rumble to handle. Also DC's very good at keeping himself out of danger in stand up and is very hard to hit. Ton of value in DC at -130.
Also I like Arlovski at +350 ( not really impressed with Browne ). I can see upset here.
Price on Dodson is good too. |
Not comparing Rumble to Jon Jones, but Jones threw 126 strikes over 5 rounds against DC and landed 92 of them, so I wouldn't say he's very hard to hit. All of the other guys he fought in Strikeforce and the UFC were guys who were below him in terms of wrestling technique, so it's hard to take anything from those fights aside from seeing his dominant against older and lesser skilled opponents like Dan Henderson, Patrick Cummins, Roy Nelson, and Frank Mir, among others. The lack of top tier competition was the knock on DC going into the fight against Jones. As of now, I like a bet on Rumble at plus money, and a bet on o2.5 rounds at -140, as I don't see DC finishing Rumble under 2.5 rounds.
Regarding Browne vs. Arlovski, they used to train together at Jackson's MMA before Browne moved to the same gym as Ronda Rousey so he could get better boxing training (his words). I think Browne left Jackson's MMA so he could get away from the "super gym" and have more 1-on-1 time with his head coach and not have to worry about facing any of his teammates down the road like he did with Overeem. Prior to Browne leaving, he was training alongside Overeem, Mir, and Arlovski. |
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