UFC 187: Johnson vs. Cormier - Page 2

I think we should setup some sort of LP sport betting. This would be really profitable for things such as "cormier by decision" where sites take insane rate
It actually wouldn't be complicated. Just have one trust worthy LPer everyone sends an ammount to on PS. This LPer confirms how much is escrowed for everyone by putting it in his profile.
Then, people freely propose bets in the topic...

BTW i have a strong feeling that, no matter who wins between Cormier and AJ, the people who bet on the loser are gonna feel really stupid. For some reasons, i think its gonna be pretty one sided. I think AJ by split decision is one the less likely outcome of this fight.

It's obviously going to be pretty one sided, AJ by split decision, lol.

On May 18 2015 02:40 Floofy wrote: BTW i have a strong feeling that, no matter who wins between Cormier and AJ, the people who bet on the loser are gonna feel really stupid. For some reasons, i think its gonna be pretty one sided. I think AJ by split decision is one the less likely outcome of this fight.

I won't feel stupid if AJ catches DC early and finishes him.

I'll only feel stupid if AJ get's tested in the wrestling department and then wins. And I don't mean tested the way Phil Davis feebly looked for single-legs and than covered up and retreated like a small scared animal the minute he realized he'd have to actually commit in order to get AJ down. I mean he legitimately has to fend off a deep shot or gets taken down and has to work his way back up. This may not happen at all if DC can't close the distance.

Maybe it was easier for DC to get into the clinch with Jones than it will be because he didn't have to fear his power, but typically people have had an impossible time getting in on Jon Jones, unless Jones was to get in on them.

DC is a special athlete, he may not look like one but he is. His functional quickness and strength are on another level than AJ's ever seen, that's for sure.

On the other side of the coin, AJ's functional striking power is certainly on another level than DC has ever seen (yes, much more than a slow Roy Nelson overhand that never came close to landing).

I just think the probability of AJ getting outwrestled and tired, and then dominated everywhere or submitted, is vastly higher than him catching DC early on.

Phil Davis was running for his life for about 14 and a half of the 15 minutes that he fought AJ. And AJ barely slowed down even to the end. Yeah fighting Davis is a lot different from fighting Cormier but I think AJ's quickness/athleticism is being underrated a bit and his cardio issue from the past is being magnified incorrectly. Don't buy the notion that it has to be a quick AJ KO or a monotonous DC grind session. I think a lot of scenarios exist where AJ can stall out a couple early takedown attempts while he's still fresh and make for an interesting first round...round and a half...and see where it goes from there. Not even to say that automatically means AJ would take over. People seem to forget that DC has power in his hands as well.

I like DC...and I still like him in this fight. I just don't think it's as one dimensional, either way, as people have said. And I think AJ's weaknesses are being a bit overblown.

To be honest DC not ever being KO'ed means nothing. Gustafsson probably has the strongest chin in the LHW and he got dropped like a bag of sand and it was his first time as well. AJ hits like a truck and tbh i hope he wins so when JBJ returns they fight, since fighting DC again would be boring as hell. then again they could possibly suspend JBJ's rights i guess

I just think the probability of AJ getting outwrestled and tired, and then dominated everywhere or submitted, is vastly higher than him catching DC early on.

This.

Completely agree with soberstone, who I think is by far the most accurate mma poster here. The real question is whether or not to wait for the reduced juice, or will people figure it out and the line will get worse by then. I think the deeper you think about it, almost everyone with time will come to the conclusion that DC has a significant edge.

i'm actually gonna bet Rumble i think. Hes in his prime vs a 36yo, underdog, longer reach, and has been amazing recently. Gonna wait for weight in tho.

I think AJ is bastly overrated he is in an upswing and not even an impressive one, who has he beat? Phil Davis who is a bum and knocking out Gustaffson thats it, hell even Hunt lucksacking run was much more impressive.

DC easily evaded Hendersons and Nelsons KO punches, AJ isnt even a KO artists like they are I think it would be rare if he gets caught, so I predict a one sided domination on this one.

Betting the house on DC.. and by the house I mean a couple of hundred

On May 18 2015 18:17 iakim322 wrote: Phil Davis was running for his life for about 14 and a half of the 15 minutes that he fought AJ. And AJ barely slowed down even to the end. Yeah fighting Davis is a lot different from fighting Cormier but I think AJ's quickness/athleticism is being underrated a bit and his cardio issue from the past is being magnified incorrectly. Don't buy the notion that it has to be a quick AJ KO or a monotonous DC grind session. I think a lot of scenarios exist where AJ can stall out a couple early takedown attempts while he's still fresh and make for an interesting first round...round and a half...and see where it goes from there. Not even to say that automatically means AJ would take over. People seem to forget that DC has power in his hands as well. I like DC...and I still like him in this fight. I just don't think it's as one dimensional, either way, as people have said. And I think AJ's weaknesses are being a bit overblown.

I agree with most of your points (except one, see the end of my post). I don't mean to make it seem like I think AJ will gas the way he used to when faced with some grinding/adversity. I simply just think that once he feels DC's clinch for a few minutes (if that comes to fruition, which I'd say is very likely) and doesn't have the early, round 1 explosion, the dynamic of the fight shifts dramatically in favor of DC.

AJ's striking style also just expends so much energy because he puts so much on everything. I mean, there's a reason he didn't finish Arlovski after blasting him and breaking his jaw - and I think that AJ is much more comparable to the AJ of now.

I don't think this version of AJ is anywhere near the fighter that Vitor submitted from a cardio, and just as importantly - frame of mind standpoint. He's FAR superior to that guy. Sort of the inverse of the Vitor that we are likely to see when compared with the Vitor that starched Rockhold.

But that said, I don't think the premise - that DC's gas tank and Olympic level wrestling technique in a grinding sort of affair will be a pretty big edge - is all that controversial.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that this isn't about AJ's weaknesses, it's more about DC's out of this world wrestling explosiveness and ability to keep that pace.

Case and point: The man fought 4 of the most grueling rounds you can imagine with Jon Jones and was still able to pick him up cage high and dump him in the 5th round. That's sort-of unheard of. Jon Jones is a nearly immovable force in MMA wrestling.

I don't even think AJ is completely lying when he says that this is a tougher matchup for him than Jon Jones. I'm not sure I'd handicap the fight much differently than I do this one. In my mind, DC should be about a -180 favorite and I'd probably make Jon Jones a -200 favorite vs Rumble.

Edit: For instance, me and Baalim (posted right above me) are both gonna be betting DC, but I feel completely different about AJ than he does. I don't think he's on an overrated tear, I think he's the real deal. I just think he's running into the 2nd best LHW in the world with one of the more favorable styles to take advantage of some of his liabilities - which I agree are being overblown but don't think it will matter.

This all makes me think that if DC wins and makes AJ look bad to the average viewer who isn't appreciating the greatness of DC, there's gonna be some major value on AJ in the future, provided he keeps his head on straight.

Edit: And just to make one thing clear, chasing a scared puppy around the Octagon for 14/15 minutes isn't exactly the recipe to get you tired. I'm sure what your point was there regarding this being some sort of proof that AJ can go hard for 3 rounds, and there's very little in MMA less tiring than chasing a guy for 3 rounds.

People keep bringing the Gustaffson knockout but I think Gus is correct when he says he is going to beat Rumble 6 out of 7. He made a mistake and threw a lazy kick and when Rumble hit him, He was standing on one leg. When you get caught with a big shot with your feet in the air, it doesn't matter how good your chin is. You are going out.

Is Rumble really that much different from a few years ago? He was a destroyer in WW as well but when he faced adversity he crumbled. In his recent run He never faced somebody that gave him trouble. And if he is not able to finish DC early, he is going to give him plenty of trouble.

$100 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/42338...on-ufc-187-johnson-vs-cormier-T-free/

On May 19 2015 00:43 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2015 18:17 iakim322 wrote: Phil Davis was running for his life for about 14 and a half of the 15 minutes that he fought AJ. And AJ barely slowed down even to the end. Yeah fighting Davis is a lot different from fighting Cormier but I think AJ's quickness/athleticism is being underrated a bit and his cardio issue from the past is being magnified incorrectly. Don't buy the notion that it has to be a quick AJ KO or a monotonous DC grind session. I think a lot of scenarios exist where AJ can stall out a couple early takedown attempts while he's still fresh and make for an interesting first round...round and a half...and see where it goes from there. Not even to say that automatically means AJ would take over. People seem to forget that DC has power in his hands as well. I like DC...and I still like him in this fight. I just don't think it's as one dimensional, either way, as people have said. And I think AJ's weaknesses are being a bit overblown. I agree with most of your points (except one, see the end of my post). I don't mean to make it seem like I think AJ will gas the way he used to when faced with some grinding/adversity. I simply just think that once he feels DC's clinch for a few minutes (if that comes to fruition, which I'd say is very likely) and doesn't have the early, round 1 explosion, the dynamic of the fight shifts dramatically in favor of DC. AJ's striking style also just expends so much energy because he puts so much on everything. I mean, there's a reason he didn't finish Arlovski after blasting him and breaking his jaw - and I think that AJ is much more comparable to the AJ of now. I don't think this version of AJ is anywhere near the fighter that Vitor submitted from a cardio, and just as importantly - frame of mind standpoint. He's FAR superior to that guy. Sort of the inverse of the Vitor that we are likely to see when compared with the Vitor that starched Rockhold. But that said, I don't think the premise - that DC's gas tank and Olympic level wrestling technique in a grinding sort of affair will be a pretty big edge - is all that controversial. I guess what I'm trying to say is that this isn't about AJ's weaknesses, it's more about DC's out of this world wrestling explosiveness and ability to keep that pace. Case and point: The man fought 4 of the most grueling rounds you can imagine with Jon Jones and was still able to pick him up cage high and dump him in the 5th round. That's sort-of unheard of. Jon Jones is a nearly immovable force in MMA wrestling. I don't even think AJ is completely lying when he says that this is a tougher matchup for him than Jon Jones. I'm not sure I'd handicap the fight much differently than I do this one. In my mind, DC should be about a -180 favorite and I'd probably make Jon Jones a -200 favorite vs Rumble. Edit: For instance, me and Baalim (posted right above me) are both gonna be betting DC, but I feel completely different about AJ than he does. I don't think he's on an overrated tear, I think he's the real deal. I just think he's running into the 2nd best LHW in the world with one of the more favorable styles to take advantage of some of his liabilities - which I agree are being overblown but don't think it will matter. This all makes me think that if DC wins and makes AJ look bad to the average viewer who isn't appreciating the greatness of DC, there's gonna be some major value on AJ in the future, provided he keeps his head on straight. Edit: And just to make one thing clear, chasing a scared puppy around the Octagon for 14/15 minutes isn't exactly the recipe to get you tired. I'm sure what your point was there regarding this being some sort of proof that AJ can go hard for 3 rounds, and there's very little in MMA less tiring than chasing a guy for 3 rounds.

This x100. Anaerobic cardio is completely different from aerobic cardio. Running 2.5 miles at an 8 minute/mile pace is easy. Running 8x200m sprints with very little rest between them is a nightmare. It leaves you sucking wind and on the verge of puking.

Jones vs Cormier was a grueling fight. Both guys were landing big shots in the clinch and working very hard the first 3 rounds. Despite being a pretty great defensive wrestler and showing improved aerobic cardio, I don't think AJ will be moving well after a few minutes of that.

I am curious to see how the clinch plays out in this fight though. Early on vs Jones, Cormier was mostly able to win those battles. Jones was bigger and stronger there and often able to land a nice exit blow, but Cormier landed the bigger shots while they were tied up. Rumble is not as squirmy as JJ and his grappling is a liability, so I'm not sure how much he will be able to put into offensive output in that position when defending the takedown is clearly the priority. I see it as a big edge to DC and think that is basically the fight right there.

Sure, AJ has ridiculous power and can land a massive blow on exit from the clinch, or standing. And of course it's possible he just outlands and defends for the majority of the 25 minutes. But I think the probability of that is much less than him getting worn down, either hurt by strikes or taken down from the clinch, mentally broken, and eventually finished or controlled for the majority of the fight on the ground. I think DC should be in the -200 ballpark as well.

On May 19 2015 16:38 Daut wrote: I think DC should be in the -200 ballpark as well.

You going big on DC at -130?

I'm still undecided if I'm gonna bet the fight, but I still like my original plan of Rumble ML at plus odds, and o2.5 rounds at -140 or better.

On May 19 2015 16:56 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On May 19 2015 16:38 Daut wrote: I think DC should be in the -200 ballpark as well. You going big on DC at -130? I'm still undecided if I'm gonna bet the fight, but I still like my original plan of Rumble ML at plus odds, and o2.5 rounds at -140 or better.

I already went pretty big on it with my Parlays, I threw him in some of my bigger ones.

They way I bet cards like this with a lot of favorites that I see value in is very high variance with big winning nights here and there that make up for a lot of more frequent even money or small losing nights.

It's purely to make it more entertaining for me, and I don't suggest it to someone with a limited bankroll who is trying to minimize variance. I just don't care that much, this isn't a profession, I want it to be fun for me and add that extra entertainment value to the card.

That said, I still obviously only make the bets that I feel have value, I'm not trying to light cash on fire.

But as for your idea of the over and the Johnson money line, I think that's also a fine way to go about it, it's lower variance with a higher probability of winning more of the time, but winning a lower aggregate amount because you are hedging - I believe intelligently so.

EDIT: My bad, you were addressing Daut, not me, mis-read.

Has Cormier ever truly wrestle fucked anyone though? Besides 199 pound trtless Henderson? Every other fight of his I remember being 90%+ striking and clinching against the cage. Occassionally he'd toss someone and they'd get right back up within 30 seconds or so.

On May 19 2015 21:51 Stim_Abuser wrote: Has Cormier ever truly wrestle fucked anyone though? Besides 199 pound trtless Henderson? Every other fight of his I remember being 90%+ striking and clinching against the cage. Occassionally he'd toss someone and they'd get right back up within 30 seconds or so.

Everyone saw how strong DC's core and wrestling was in his fight against Josh Barnett in Strikeforce. However, Barnett broke his hand in round 1, and the fight was still close imo, as it was fought mainly on the feet. Barnett and Jon Jones were the only people to bring out the elite fighter in DC, as the rest of his opponents were scrubs, cans, or just past their prime.

IMO, it's not so much that DC is a good MMA wrestler because he can take you down, his true strength shows in his wrestling moves that he uses on people and his core strength. Tapping peoples legs to get them off balance, kicking Hendo's foot to knock him off balance, and the way he uses balance to defense a take down and to keep people down on the mat is something you've seen before, but not many people do it.

p.s. I still haven't seen Barnett's striking look as good as it did in Strikeforce. I had high hopes for him in the UFC, but he isn't fighting to his true potential. That "fight" against Travis Browne was a joke of a performance from Barnett.

On May 19 2015 22:45 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On May 19 2015 21:51 Stim_Abuser wrote: Has Cormier ever truly wrestle fucked anyone though? Besides 199 pound trtless Henderson? Every other fight of his I remember being 90%+ striking and clinching against the cage. Occassionally he'd toss someone and they'd get right back up within 30 seconds or so. Everyone saw how strong DC's core and wrestling was in his fight against Josh Barnett in Strikeforce. However, Barnett broke his hand in round 1, and the fight was still close imo, as it was fought mainly on the feet. Barnett and Jon Jones were the only people to bring out the elite fighter in DC, as the rest of his opponents were scrubs, cans, or just past their prime. IMO, it's not so much that DC is a good MMA wrestler because he can take you down, his true strength shows in his wrestling moves that he uses on people and his core strength. Tapping peoples legs to get them off balance, kicking Hendo's foot to knock him off balance, and the way he uses balance to defense a take down and to keep people down on the mat is something you've seen before, but not many people do it. p.s. I still haven't seen Barnett's striking look as good as it did in Strikeforce. I had high hopes for him in the UFC, but he isn't fighting to his true potential. That "fight" against Travis Browne was a joke of a performance from Barnett.

I'm not really doubting DC's great ability to toss fools or score takedowns. More so his ability to have dominate top control. My memory is foggy on some of his past fights though so maybe I'm missing something.