[Poll] 1 mill or 1 billion

Poll: What would you choose?
(Vote): 1 million cash
(Vote): Coin flip for a billion
(Vote): Don't know

1 million cash
bye

definitely gamble for a billion

Good question, its an hard one.

I think this is easy for really poor people, where 1 mil really changes everything.
Its also easy for people already worth a few mils, go for the gamble.

But for guys like me its a tough one. I think the smart decision would be to take the gamble, because nowadays 1 mil isn't actually that much, and it would not change my life THAT much, while 1 bil would change everything. But if i lost the flip that would be really frustrating.

How many times do I get to play the game? ;-)

On April 06 2015 23:23 HungarianGOD wrote: How many times do I get to play the game? ;-)

I don't think this matters much.

If given 2 flips, i think the first flip going to the bil is a no brainer. Then if you win, your second decision is obviously going to be the bil again. But if you lost, its the same as if u were given a single flip lol

where I am now, $1 million would pay my mortgage + another awesome house meaning I could live in the other one and rent out this one and have enough income from renting out this one that I basically wouldn't need any income beyond that. So I'd be set and never have to be concerned with money again - and I would still want to work, just maybe not a full normal week.

I don't really care for the stuff I can buy beyond that.. I'd easily take the $1mill, no question about it. I think I'd take the $1mill even if it wasn't a flip, but an 80/20. More than that, and it becomes tough.

heads for 1 billion

lol if i was wealthier ez flip but i snap take million where i am now.

On April 06 2015 23:28 Liquid`Drone wrote: where I am now, $1 million would pay my mortgage + another awesome house meaning I could live in the other one and rent out this one and have enough income from renting out this one that I basically wouldn't need any income beyond that. So I'd be set and never have to be concerned with money again - and I would still want to work, just maybe not a full normal week. I don't really care for the stuff I can buy beyond that.. I'd easily take the $1mill, no question about it. I think I'd take the $1mill even if it wasn't a flip, but an 80/20. More than that, and it becomes tough.

Donate 500 million if you win...

Im pretty shocked so many of you would take the million... come on its a thousands time the reward, unless you lived in extreme poverty in a 3rd world country where 1 mill is huge just take the flip

don't know coz im a huge nit

Close my eyes and flip.

this isnt even close

if #1 was 5 mill it would be closer

its easy to get a million. impossibly difficult to get to A billion

On April 07 2015 01:03 casinocasino wrote: its easy to get a million. impossibly difficult to get to A billion

maybe easy for you to get a million.

I guess the question depends on who you ask, where they're from/where they live, what they've seen in life, and how old they are.

I'd insta-flip a coin for $1 billion dollars, knowing that I'd be giving up an easy $1 million dollars.

$1 billion can change my life, and the lives of any future children and grandchildren I might have someday, while $1 million dollars can easily be spent during one weekend in Las Vegas.

On April 06 2015 23:58 Baalim wrote: Im pretty shocked so many of you would take the million... come on its a thousands time the reward, unless you lived in extreme poverty in a 3rd world country where 1 mill is huge just take the flip

a million dollars is still a lot of money pretty much everywhere and life-changing for most people. the most valuable resource we have is time, so let's say the average person here is 25 and has about 60 years left. even with a pretty good-paying job, it will still take most people at least 10 years to accumulate $1mln (after taxes, living expenses, etc), and a lot probably won't do it until they're close to retirement age. obviously there's jobs that can do it in less time, but they aren't attainable for most.

i don't know about any actual data on the subject, but from listening to people it seems like the vast majority don't love their jobs. they might be interested in their field and find certain aspects rewarding, but overall i'm guessing most would happily quit if they were guaranteed financial security. for someone who isn't obsessed with climbing the wealth ladder, $1mln is enough to never have to work again if they diversify it in low-risk investments to hedge against inflation. one decade++ spending the majority of your waking hours doing something you'd prefer not to be doing, during the peak physical years of your life, is a huge burden that a million dollars can lift.

i also don't think being 1000x the amount of money is a good way to look at it. what's the real utility of having $1billion vs 500 million vs 100 million? i realize the answer is different for everyone, but i think for me there wouldn't be much difference.

all that said i probably still take the flip for $1 billion, but i don't think it's ridiculous at all to take a guaranteed million.

On April 06 2015 23:27 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On April 06 2015 23:23 HungarianGOD wrote: How many times do I get to play the game? ;-) I don't think this matters much. If given 2 flips, i think the first flip going to the bil is a no brainer. Then if you win, your second decision is obviously going to be the bil again. But if you lost, its the same as if u were given a single flip lol

It matters a ton; in finance the risk of a decision is almost as important as the expectation of an event (and I say almost because of 1 specific exception).

Everybody always wants to maximize expectation, but people have very different ways of valuing different kinds of risks; an individual's personal function for measuring the value of a decision based on the combination of both the expectation and the different risks of that decision is an individual's "utility function". Utility functions can be drastically different from person to person.

Most people here are not particularly risk adverse... We are all poker players, and in most situations we very happy to add additional risk in order to increase expectation. As such, I'd guess most people here (myself included) would take the flip for a billion. However, most of us have lines we will not cross. I leave you with an oft cited example in finance demonstrating this, that even for those of us who are very risk adverse, we almost always have our limits

The scenario is this:


There is a game that somebody is considering letting you play. In this game, you get to flip a fair coin, and you keep flipping it until you get heads. Once you get heads, the game stops, and you walk away with whatever you have won. If you get heads on the first flip, you walk away with $1, but for every time you get tails, the amount you win doubles. The question is this: How much would YOU pay to be willing to play this game?

If you are purely trying to go with the most +EV thing to do, the answer is any finite sum of money. You would be willing to pay the entire GDP of the planet earth ^1000000 in order to play this game once, even though in the vast majority of the time you will win a paltry sum. The reason is the expected value of playing this game once if infinite.

Mathematical demonstration:
+ Show Spoiler +

On April 07 2015 01:58 HungarianGOD wrote: Show nested quote + On April 06 2015 23:27 Floofy wrote:   On April 06 2015 23:23 HungarianGOD wrote: How many times do I get to play the game? ;-) I don't think this matters much. If given 2 flips, i think the first flip going to the bil is a no brainer. Then if you win, your second decision is obviously going to be the bil again. But if you lost, its the same as if u were given a single flip lol It matters a ton; in finance the risk of a decision is almost as important as the expectation of an event (and I say almost because of 1 specific exception). Everybody always wants to maximize expectation, but people have very different ways of valuing different kinds of risks; an individual's personal function for measuring the value of a decision based on the combination of both the expectation and the different risks of that decision is an individual's "utility function". Utility functions can be drastically different from person to person. Most people here are not particularly risk adverse... We are all poker players, and in most situations we very happy to add additional risk in order to increase expectation. As such, I'd guess most people here (myself included) would take the flip for a billion. However, most of us have lines we will not cross. I leave you with an oft cited example in finance demonstrating this, that even for those of us who are very risk adverse, we almost always have our limits The scenario is this: There is a game that somebody is considering letting you play. In this game, you get to flip a fair coin, and you keep flipping it until you get heads. Once you get heads, the game stops, and you walk away with whatever you have won. If you get heads on the first flip, you walk away with $1, but for every time you get tails, the amount you win doubles. The question is this: How much would YOU pay to be willing to play this game? If you are purely trying to go with the most +EV thing to do, the answer is any finite sum of money. You would be willing to pay the entire GDP of the planet earth ^1000000 in order to play this game once, even though in the vast majority of the time you will win a paltry sum. The reason is the expected value of playing this game once if infinite. Mathematical demonstration: + Show Spoiler + let 'a' = the value of event a happening, and p(a) the probability that event 'a' happens Definition of EV: p(a) * a + p(b) *b + ... + p(n) * n + ... In this case, we get p($1) * $1 + p($2) *$2 + p($4) * $4 + ... + p($2^n)*$2^n + ... = 1/2 * $1 + 1/4 * $2 + 1/8 * $4 + ... + (1/2)^n * $2^(n-1) + ... = 1/2 + 1/2 + 1/2 + ... + 1/2 + ... = infinity So the expectation is infinite.

I don't think you've read my post??

Given 2 chances, you will surely use your first chance on the billion.
Then if you do get the bil, you will surely go for bil again.
But if it fails, then you go back to the initial question.

On April 07 2015 01:46 bigredhoss wrote: Show nested quote + On April 06 2015 23:58 Baalim wrote: Im pretty shocked so many of you would take the million... come on its a thousands time the reward, unless you lived in extreme poverty in a 3rd world country where 1 mill is huge just take the flip a million dollars is still a lot of money pretty much everywhere and life-changing for most people. the most valuable resource we have is time, so let's say the average person here is 25 and has about 60 years left. even with a pretty good-paying job, it will still take most people at least 10 years to accumulate $1mln (after taxes, living expenses, etc), and a lot probably won't do it until they're close to retirement age. obviously there's jobs that can do it in less time, but they aren't attainable for most. i don't know about any actual data on the subject, but from listening to people it seems like the vast majority don't love their jobs. they might be interested in their field and find certain aspects rewarding, but overall i'm guessing most would happily quit if they were guaranteed financial security. for someone who isn't obsessed with climbing the wealth ladder, $1mln is enough to never have to work again if they diversify it in low-risk investments to hedge against inflation. one decade++ spending the majority of your waking hours doing something you'd prefer not to be doing, during the peak physical years of your life, is a huge burden that a million dollars can lift. i also don't think being 1000x the amount of money is a good way to look at it. what's the real utility of having $1billion vs 500 million vs 100 million? i realize the answer is different for everyone, but i think for me there wouldn't be much difference. all that said i probably still take the flip for $1 billion, but i don't think it's ridiculous at all to take a guaranteed million.

I think people overestimate how much 1 million is nowadays its not going to be easy to live the rest of your life from interests with inflation and the utility difference between 1M and 1B is HUGE... 1B is basically infinite money and while I dont even care much about making a lot of money it would be pretty nice to not care about money for the rest of my life.

Just for the lulz I flipped I coin and won!!!..... suck it you poor millionares you are not invited to my Yatch... no nits allowed

Like I said before, I'd for sure take the flip for a billion. I've never been one to be scared of gambles/play it safe. It is tempting to just walk away with the million for fear of getting nothing, don't get me wrong. But if I walked away with the 1 million I wouldn't be able to live with myself. I'd spend the rest of my life wondering what the outcome of the flip would have been. The same sort of feeling you get when you don't ask out a girl you'd like to. Everything turns out ok down the road more or less, but you always wonder/regret what would/could have been if you went through with it. Anyone have a similar thought process?

Idk if this makes sense, not that great at explaining myself.

snap pick the mill

On April 07 2015 02:08 Floofy wrote: I don't think you've read my post?? Given 2 chances, you will surely use your first chance on the billion. Then if you do get the bil, you will surely go for bil again. But if it fails, then you go back to the initial question.

I did read your post! I promise

Some people would still not do that. For some people the certainty of the 2 million dollars will be worth more than the .5 chance to win 1B and the guaranteed 1M, or the 2 chances for the billion.

On April 07 2015 02:08 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On April 07 2015 01:46 bigredhoss wrote:   On April 06 2015 23:58 Baalim wrote: Im pretty shocked so many of you would take the million... come on its a thousands time the reward, unless you lived in extreme poverty in a 3rd world country where 1 mill is huge just take the flip a million dollars is still a lot of money pretty much everywhere and life-changing for most people. the most valuable resource we have is time, so let's say the average person here is 25 and has about 60 years left. even with a pretty good-paying job, it will still take most people at least 10 years to accumulate $1mln (after taxes, living expenses, etc), and a lot probably won't do it until they're close to retirement age. obviously there's jobs that can do it in less time, but they aren't attainable for most. i don't know about any actual data on the subject, but from listening to people it seems like the vast majority don't love their jobs. they might be interested in their field and find certain aspects rewarding, but overall i'm guessing most would happily quit if they were guaranteed financial security. for someone who isn't obsessed with climbing the wealth ladder, $1mln is enough to never have to work again if they diversify it in low-risk investments to hedge against inflation. one decade++ spending the majority of your waking hours doing something you'd prefer not to be doing, during the peak physical years of your life, is a huge burden that a million dollars can lift. i also don't think being 1000x the amount of money is a good way to look at it. what's the real utility of having $1billion vs 500 million vs 100 million? i realize the answer is different for everyone, but i think for me there wouldn't be much difference. all that said i probably still take the flip for $1 billion, but i don't think it's ridiculous at all to take a guaranteed million. I think people overestimate how much 1 million is nowadays its not going to be easy to live the rest of your life from interests with inflation and the utility difference between 1M and 1B is HUGE... 1B is basically infinite money and while I dont even care much about making a lot of money it would be pretty nice to not care about money for the rest of my life.

agree with everything you said, but the difference between ~100k and 1 million is also huge. you won't live a life of luxury collecting interest on 1 million for sure, but you don't necessarily need to be worried about money either, it just depends on the person and what they want in life. with a million, you could at least spend your time doing mostly what you want, it's enough to escape the daily grind while living a modest lifestyle.

you're basically giving up the chance for guaranteed autonomy and freedom during the best years of your life, for the chance to flip a coin where if you win you get god-money, if you lose then you lose your freedom for those years. i think for someone who's working 40-60 hours a week and counting the days to when he can quit, a million makes perfect sense.

I think the majority of middle class people would flip, that being said i think another interesting question is how much of a guaranteed reward would start to become more attractive than flipping for a billion. In my opinion, if I had the option for accepting as low as 4 million guaranteed I would accept it just because that's enough to have a large house, a few big toys, funds set for the kids, and the left over spread over various investments so you that you don't need to work if you don't want to. For the average sane person, I think it would be difficult to spend past tens of millions, let alone hundreds just for pleasure (without being retarded like buying gold toilets). If I had a billion I would be using atleast 90% for donating to low income housing for people who have jobs but cant yet fully support their families, and education for women in foreign countries so we lower dem birthrates.

On April 07 2015 02:32 HungarianGOD wrote: Show nested quote + On April 07 2015 02:08 Floofy wrote: I don't think you've read my post?? Given 2 chances, you will surely use your first chance on the billion. Then if you do get the bil, you will surely go for bil again. But if it fails, then you go back to the initial question. I did read your post! I promise Some people would still not do that. For some people the certainty of the 2 million dollars will be worth more than the .5 chance to win 1B and the guaranteed 1M, or the 2 chances for the billion.

Oh ok now i do understand your post. Maybe i'm the one who didn't read yours properly ^_^

I guess your right, but i think those people would be making a mistake

Why is there even a poll, the difference is way too huge to even think about. I would understand if it were done in Eastern European countries, but there s no valid reason for anyone in Western Europe/US to take the mil
Unless you have some very legit investment ideas and don't feel like gambling, and don't want to buy Charlie's chocolate factory

99.99% of the poeple living in any 1st world country should go for the 1billion. can't even believe how ppl think this is anywhere close.

a better question would be 100m vs the 1 b, or 1 m vs 10 m. the answers would be much more illuminating.

On April 07 2015 08:22 mnj wrote: 99.99% of the poeple living in any 1st world country should go for the 1billion. can't even believe how ppl think this is anywhere close. a better question would be 100m vs the 1 b, or 1 m vs 10 m. the answers would be much more illuminating.

100m v 1B is also silly, the utility difference is minimal... but 1M or 10M would be a rough one but id still flip

On April 07 2015 01:58 HungarianGOD wrote: Show nested quote + On April 06 2015 23:27 Floofy wrote:   On April 06 2015 23:23 HungarianGOD wrote: How many times do I get to play the game? ;-) I don't think this matters much. If given 2 flips, i think the first flip going to the bil is a no brainer. Then if you win, your second decision is obviously going to be the bil again. But if you lost, its the same as if u were given a single flip lol It matters a ton; in finance the risk of a decision is almost as important as the expectation of an event (and I say almost because of 1 specific exception). Everybody always wants to maximize expectation, but people have very different ways of valuing different kinds of risks; an individual's personal function for measuring the value of a decision based on the combination of both the expectation and the different risks of that decision is an individual's "utility function". Utility functions can be drastically different from person to person. Most people here are not particularly risk adverse... We are all poker players, and in most situations we very happy to add additional risk in order to increase expectation. As such, I'd guess most people here (myself included) would take the flip for a billion. However, most of us have lines we will not cross. I leave you with an oft cited example in finance demonstrating this, that even for those of us who are very risk adverse, we almost always have our limits The scenario is this: There is a game that somebody is considering letting you play. In this game, you get to flip a fair coin, and you keep flipping it until you get heads. Once you get heads, the game stops, and you walk away with whatever you have won. If you get heads on the first flip, you walk away with $1, but for every time you get tails, the amount you win doubles. The question is this: How much would YOU pay to be willing to play this game? If you are purely trying to go with the most +EV thing to do, the answer is any finite sum of money. You would be willing to pay the entire GDP of the planet earth ^1000000 in order to play this game once, even though in the vast majority of the time you will win a paltry sum. The reason is the expected value of playing this game once if infinite. Mathematical demonstration: + Show Spoiler + let 'a' = the value of event a happening, and p(a) the probability that event 'a' happens Definition of EV: p(a) * a + p(b) *b + ... + p(n) * n + ... In this case, we get p($1) * $1 + p($2) *$2 + p($4) * $4 + ... + p($2^n)*$2^n + ... = 1/2 * $1 + 1/4 * $2 + 1/8 * $4 + ... + (1/2)^n * $2^(n-1) + ... = 1/2 + 1/2 + 1/2 + ... + 1/2 + ... = infinity So the expectation is infinite.

bernoulli's famous st petersburg paradox.. pls dont confuse its origin with a vulgar base field like finance

On April 07 2015 02:08 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On April 07 2015 01:58 HungarianGOD wrote:   On April 06 2015 23:27 Floofy wrote:   On April 06 2015 23:23 HungarianGOD wrote: How many times do I get to play the game? ;-) I don't think this matters much. If given 2 flips, i think the first flip going to the bil is a no brainer. Then if you win, your second decision is obviously going to be the bil again. But if you lost, its the same as if u were given a single flip lol It matters a ton; in finance the risk of a decision is almost as important as the expectation of an event (and I say almost because of 1 specific exception). Everybody always wants to maximize expectation, but people have very different ways of valuing different kinds of risks; an individual's personal function for measuring the value of a decision based on the combination of both the expectation and the different risks of that decision is an individual's "utility function". Utility functions can be drastically different from person to person. Most people here are not particularly risk adverse... We are all poker players, and in most situations we very happy to add additional risk in order to increase expectation. As such, I'd guess most people here (myself included) would take the flip for a billion. However, most of us have lines we will not cross. I leave you with an oft cited example in finance demonstrating this, that even for those of us who are very risk adverse, we almost always have our limits The scenario is this: There is a game that somebody is considering letting you play. In this game, you get to flip a fair coin, and you keep flipping it until you get heads. Once you get heads, the game stops, and you walk away with whatever you have won. If you get heads on the first flip, you walk away with $1, but for every time you get tails, the amount you win doubles. The question is this: How much would YOU pay to be willing to play this game? If you are purely trying to go with the most +EV thing to do, the answer is any finite sum of money. You would be willing to pay the entire GDP of the planet earth ^1000000 in order to play this game once, even though in the vast majority of the time you will win a paltry sum. The reason is the expected value of playing this game once if infinite. Mathematical demonstration: + Show Spoiler + let 'a' = the value of event a happening, and p(a) the probability that event 'a' happens Definition of EV: p(a) * a + p(b) *b + ... + p(n) * n + ... In this case, we get p($1) * $1 + p($2) *$2 + p($4) * $4 + ... + p($2^n)*$2^n + ... = 1/2 * $1 + 1/4 * $2 + 1/8 * $4 + ... + (1/2)^n * $2^(n-1) + ... = 1/2 + 1/2 + 1/2 + ... + 1/2 + ... = infinity So the expectation is infinite. I don't think you've read my post?? Given 2 chances, you will surely use your first chance on the billion. Then if you do get the bil, you will surely go for bil again. But if it fails, then you go back to the initial question.

for fun think about how your answer changes if you have to decide ex-ante whether to take two flips or $2m and can't change in between

Easy decision

$1 million easily for me, thats a shitload of money in brazil and would settle my life in the bat of an eye

All the money in the world cannot bring you happiness but a little bit can make a big difference.

Had a mil before, wasn't life changing. Flip it all day!

HungarianDOG typing with his buttcheeks again, lmao. Spitfiree are you wearing your tinfoil hat again? What the fuck is the difference between eastern-european countries and western-european/USA to make a stupid comparison like that? wtf retard.

I'd flip and if i won i'd buy the yacht and invite Baal. This isn't even close for me..
although i can see why many would snap 1mil with the biggest advantage going for 1mil is getting it instantly.

How about this idea: you get to design the game for yourself in a parallel universe, what do you think the other you would flip for?

http://youtu.be/JN0UO-vURpk?t=40

On April 06 2015 23:58 Baalim wrote: Im pretty shocked so many of you would take the million... come on its a thousands time the reward, unless you lived in extreme poverty in a 3rd world country where 1 mill is huge just take the flip

1 mill on top of what I have now means I'm set for life even if I only work 20-25 hour weeks, which to me seems like the ideal amount. If I won 1 billion, I'd still want to work equally much. 1 million would ensure me an extra 10-15 hours of spare time every week for the next 40 years of my life. And I honestly have little interest in the things I can't get for $1 mill + expected income, I guess it'd be nice to go completely foodie crazy and drink shots of 100 year old balsamic vinegar, but I don't really want to live in a huge mansion, I don't want maids, I don't want watches or jewelry, I don't want coke, I don't want strippers or whores, I don't want a private jet or yacht or a ferrari.. I also don't want to spend time investing or managing money, nor do I care much about establishing any business of any kind. Philanthropy would be sweet, but not at the 50% chance of ending up with 0.

it's kinda like, to me, if 0 money is worth 0 and 100 billion is worth 100, then $1 million would be worth 80-90.

seems like many of you are neglecting that half the time you choose to flip you actually lose and you have to live with knowing that you just gave away $1 million.

I also understand that if you have more money than me and different life goals it becomes a no-brainer just the other way around, but for me, it's really not close.

On April 07 2015 18:12 Liquid`Drone wrote: Show nested quote + On April 06 2015 23:58 Baalim wrote: Im pretty shocked so many of you would take the million... come on its a thousands time the reward, unless you lived in extreme poverty in a 3rd world country where 1 mill is huge just take the flip 1 mill on top of what I have now means I'm set for life even if I only work 20-25 hour weeks, which to me seems like the ideal amount. If I won 1 billion, I'd still want to work equally much. 1 million would ensure me an extra 10-15 hours of spare time every week for the next 40 years of my life. And I honestly have little interest in the things I can't get for $1 mill + expected income, I guess it'd be nice to go completely foodie crazy and drink shots of 100 year old balsamic vinegar, but I don't really want to live in a huge mansion, I don't want maids, I don't want watches or jewelry, I don't want coke, I don't want strippers or whores, I don't want a private jet or yacht or a ferrari.. it's kinda like, to me, if 0 money is worth 0 and 100 billion is worth 100, then $1 million would be worth 80-90. seems like many of you are neglecting that half the time you choose to flip you actually lose and you have to live with knowing that you just gave away $1 million. I also understand that if you have more money than me and different life goals it becomes a no-brainer just the other way around, but for me, it's really not close.

Completely agree with this. I'd also snaptake the $1M. $1M still sets you up for life. You can get a nice job that excites you for 3-4 days a week, enjoy plenty of free time and live very very comfortably for the rest of your days. And yeah I don't care about a Dan Bilzerian type of life. Then again I'm just an ordinary down to earth Dutch person who doesn't understand why people would ever go to a stripclub (Rhino) and spend $1-5k on a night out. To each his own I guess.

Surprising so many of you take the million. I'm not rich but in the long run I don't think a mil would make or break my life. That's depressing.

Without doubt or hesitation I flip and if I lose I wouldn't think twice about it or second guess. In fact I would find it extremely selfish for someone to take the million dollars.

The sheer amount of good I could do for the rest of the world with 1 billion means I would have to take the flip. Could give away half+ and uplift thousands of lives or whatever

On April 07 2015 09:18 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On April 07 2015 08:22 mnj wrote: 99.99% of the poeple living in any 1st world country should go for the 1billion. can't even believe how ppl think this is anywhere close. a better question would be 100m vs the 1 b, or 1 m vs 10 m. the answers would be much more illuminating. 100m v 1B is also silly, the utility difference is minimal... but 1M or 10M would be a rough one but id still flip

so your saying you woud pick the 100m? that's cool tho. now we can keep going down and guestimate at what point the two choices are similar/"breakeven"

would you take 20m? over the flip for 1b?

10m?

5m?

I'd take the flip without any hesitation. I can understand where people choosing the million are coming from though. I also think it's equally likely in both cases to end up broke in a relatively short period of time (as lottery winners prove time and time again).

One point why it's worth to have a fortune (and in this case take the flip) that I haven't heard: the future holds amazing technological advances (I'm thinking particularly in terms of health and aging) and we don't live in an entirely stable/peaceful world. A million won't be much in that regard.

On April 06 2015 23:58 Baalim wrote: Im pretty shocked so many of you would take the million... come on its a thousands time the reward, unless you lived in extreme poverty in a 3rd world country where 1 mill is huge just take the flip

this sort of thinking probably invented russian roulette though, 1m is plenty of money.

it may or may not be enough money to put you ahead enough of the curve that you could just sit on your ass for the rest of your life, but that's not what life is. a chance to be the next dan bilzerian or calligula or something shouldn't be the reason you flip. like you said earlier "donate 500m" - then what was the point of flipping for 1b to begin with?

the thing is 1m is a tangible in-your-wallet amount of money, 1b is really not like that, it has more to do with the motion of money i think, if we talk about flipping for 1b it's about having control of a huge amount of capital so you can make decisions at a large scale.

what i'm saying is 1m would be plenty of money to steer your life in basically any direction you wanted, you could become a doctor, pilot, engineer, recording artist, international lawyer, politician, hotelier, broadcaster. it's not even about careers, you could take the money and use the time to learn how to paint or become multilingual or spend all your time searching for a perfect mate. IMO nobody should be flipping unless they already see something major in the world they think they can change, or have huge/possibly crazy plans somewhere like starting a helicopter airline in switzerland or something. otherwise if you flip and get the 1b and you have no idea what to do with, even after you spend money on a bunch of random shit like edward norton in the italian job, you'll have to send the rest to the bill gates foundation or hire a bunch of people and start your own foundation to manage the money since you have no idea what to do with it

and i think the 1m would be the clear choice even for many millionaires because they would have the same problems, if they don't have really big ideas for what to do with that money, why flip, if you win you have a bunch of money and no use for it, whereas just taking the $1m - in perspective it's a guaranteed house or like a dozen Nissan GTRs or 1000 computers, why would anyone say no to that

1m vs flipping for 1b is not at the level of like calculating whether it's worth your time to bend over and pick up a penny on the sidewalk, it's take the 1m, no contest

On April 07 2015 18:56 tomson wrote: I'd take the flip without any hesitation. I can understand where people choosing the million are coming from though. I also think it's equally likely in both cases to end up broke in a relatively short period of time (as lottery winners prove time and time again). One point why it's worth to have a fortune (and in this case take the flip) that I haven't heard: the future holds amazing technological advances (I'm thinking particularly in terms of health and aging) and we don't live in an entirely stable/peaceful world. A million won't be much in that regard.

interesting view on the future tech. i heard from a co-worker that in japan there are already clinics for billionaires, where they hook u up to a dialysis like machine and just filter/clean boost ur blood.

as for the lotto winners, i think the negative stories always outpaints/outspreads the stories of the several ppl who just won the lotto, told no one and lived happily ever after.

Why would you say no to 1 mil cash? For 500 million in equity of course

in Norway lottery winners very rarely go bankrupt, a large majority of them simply report having a much more convenient (and mortgage free) life.. But part of the prize is a comprehensive advisory program relating to how to spend it responsibly. I think basically everyone buys property for most of the money, and here, not having any significant expenses relating to housing means you only need like half as much money in the future.

There was a study that showed happiness increases with income up until about $75,000/yr income. After that you don't get any more happy the more money you make. So if you make around $50,000 a year then an extra million dollars will pretty much set you for life as you can give yourself an extra $25,000 a year for the rest of your life. So if you go for the billion there's a 50% chance you won't be any more happy and a 50% chance you will be a lot more sad because you could have had a million bucks but instead you got nothing. Lose/draw situation vs a guaranteed win. I'd still flip for the billion though.

On April 07 2015 18:12 Liquid`Drone wrote: Show nested quote + On April 06 2015 23:58 Baalim wrote: Im pretty shocked so many of you would take the million... come on its a thousands time the reward, unless you lived in extreme poverty in a 3rd world country where 1 mill is huge just take the flip 1 mill on top of what I have now means I'm set for life even if I only work 20-25 hour weeks, which to me seems like the ideal amount. If I won 1 billion, I'd still want to work equally much. 1 million would ensure me an extra 10-15 hours of spare time every week for the next 40 years of my life. And I honestly have little interest in the things I can't get for $1 mill + expected income, I guess it'd be nice to go completely foodie crazy and drink shots of 100 year old balsamic vinegar, but I don't really want to live in a huge mansion, I don't want maids, I don't want watches or jewelry, I don't want coke, I don't want strippers or whores, I don't want a private jet or yacht or a ferrari.. I also don't want to spend time investing or managing money, nor do I care much about establishing any business of any kind. Philanthropy would be sweet, but not at the 50% chance of ending up with 0. it's kinda like, to me, if 0 money is worth 0 and 100 billion is worth 100, then $1 million would be worth 80-90. seems like many of you are neglecting that half the time you choose to flip you actually lose and you have to live with knowing that you just gave away $1 million. I also understand that if you have more money than me and different life goals it becomes a no-brainer just the other way around, but for me, it's really not close.

I dont even dream of a lavish life either at all,I dont want a mansion, I dislike jewerly and stupid stuff like that (I would go crazy with cars though lol) but you dont have to be a Dan Bilzerían to like it, it would be nice to never think about money ever again, to be able to arrange vacations to vietnam with some friends etc, or travel by yourself etc, things you wouldnt be able to do with just 1M.

Also I wouldn want to work, fuck that shit... maybe in something creative like Elon Musk kind of thing but have a regular job? heeeeell no

On April 07 2015 23:56 Baalim wrote: it would be nice to never think about money ever again, to be able to arrange vacations to vietnam with some friends etc, or travel by yourself etc, things you wouldnt be able to do with just 1M. Also I wouldn want to work, fuck that shit... maybe in something creative like Elon Musk kind of thing but have a regular job? heeeeell no

not thinking about money and traveling a lot is exactly what i would do if i had $1 million. traveling places like southeast asia/south america/eastern europe is really not expensive at all, or at least it doesn't have to be.

1M vs 1 bil I take flip

10M vs 1 bil I take the 10M

dunno about you guys but 1 million can go a long way into building the future that you want.
business ventures..investments etc etc. Whatever you want. a million can get you there for most cases anyways.

At least get you started on a lot of things.

even if i was significantly wealthier than i was now i'd still take the million without much thought. If i could already do all the things i wanted already then i'd take the flip without hesitation.

Drone Bigredhoss and Yomer already pointed all my thoughts.
You can do shitons of things with 1M. Even in western Europe. I don't know what you guys been smoking lol x)

On April 06 2015 23:33 PoorUser wrote: heads for 1 billion

tails never fails!

On April 07 2015 18:12 Liquid`Drone wrote: I also understand that if you have more money than me and different life goals it becomes a no-brainer just the other way around, but for me, it's really not close.

How much of your $1,000,000 would you give to your loved ones and charity?

On April 07 2015 18:19 Twisted wrote: seems like many of you are neglecting that half the time you choose to flip you actually lose and you have to live with knowing that you just gave away $1 million.

Do you also feel like you "wasted" 400$ when u go allin pre with AA and lose? I would be able to live with it, no regrets

If you settle for your measly million and buy a house and then <insert suitably ironic disaster here> strikes u have to watch people suffer and die but 50% of the time me, my friends and family and charities and random ppl I met on the street (who I gave $1,000,001 just to spite u) will be saving lives because $1,000,000,000

I don't think it's really close. Flip all the way.

On April 07 2015 23:56 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On April 07 2015 18:12 Liquid`Drone wrote:   On April 06 2015 23:58 Baalim wrote: Im pretty shocked so many of you would take the million... come on its a thousands time the reward, unless you lived in extreme poverty in a 3rd world country where 1 mill is huge just take the flip 1 mill on top of what I have now means I'm set for life even if I only work 20-25 hour weeks, which to me seems like the ideal amount. If I won 1 billion, I'd still want to work equally much. 1 million would ensure me an extra 10-15 hours of spare time every week for the next 40 years of my life. And I honestly have little interest in the things I can't get for $1 mill + expected income, I guess it'd be nice to go completely foodie crazy and drink shots of 100 year old balsamic vinegar, but I don't really want to live in a huge mansion, I don't want maids, I don't want watches or jewelry, I don't want coke, I don't want strippers or whores, I don't want a private jet or yacht or a ferrari.. I also don't want to spend time investing or managing money, nor do I care much about establishing any business of any kind. Philanthropy would be sweet, but not at the 50% chance of ending up with 0. it's kinda like, to me, if 0 money is worth 0 and 100 billion is worth 100, then $1 million would be worth 80-90. seems like many of you are neglecting that half the time you choose to flip you actually lose and you have to live with knowing that you just gave away $1 million. I also understand that if you have more money than me and different life goals it becomes a no-brainer just the other way around, but for me, it's really not close. I dont even dream of a lavish life either at all,I dont want a mansion, I dislike jewerly and stupid stuff like that (I would go crazy with cars though lol) but you dont have to be a Dan Bilzerían to like it, it would be nice to never think about money ever again, to be able to arrange vacations to vietnam with some friends etc, or travel by yourself etc, things you wouldnt be able to do with just 1M. Also I wouldn want to work, fuck that shit... maybe in something creative like Elon Musk kind of thing but have a regular job? heeeeell no

teaching is one of the most rewarding things I can do, I absolutely love it and want it to be part of the rest of my life. Problem is that the workload for a full time teacher job is so big that doing a great job (which is way more rewarding) is really exhausting, and as it's salary based there's no overtime.

50% though, that'd be absolutely awesome, and $1mill would make that happen.

it's kinda like, $1mill is around the breaking point for me. That's sufficient for me to never have to worry about money again, and a 50% chance of getting 0 would be too rough. If the options were $100k or flip for 1 mill, I'd do the flip, even though that's just 10x the amount as opposed to 1000x, I just don't see that much utility in money beyond that, and a LOT of utility up until 1 mill.

flip for a billion,

Sell some action

[x] profit.

i agree with handy actually
sell your action lolol

On April 08 2015 17:42 handy23 wrote: flip for a billion, Sell some action [x] profit.

LOL we're all retarded, how did it take 60 posts for someone to figure this out

that's undermining the spirit of the hypothetical yo~

On April 08 2015 17:42 handy23 wrote: flip for a billion, Sell some action [x] profit.

omg yes hahaha

the 499 million dollars of equity regret once you blow your petty million on drugs and whores in a few years.