Sports Betting Thread - Page 4

My NBA picks for tonight

CHA -2 (4U)
MIL -187 (4U)
PHI/TOR over 210 (2U)

im not touching that spread on the jazz/lakers game but I took the over , anyways I took magic -3.5 early last night (lol it's -5 now) for $1k, and two other $500 bets on bobcats -2, and bucks -5.5 @ nets


i got a ton of parlays too:

miami/ATL over 190.5,
76'ers +7, magic -4.5, over 5.5 nashville/rangers, san jose money line, philly/NJ devils under 5.5, the over on 5.5 ATL/colorado, anaheim money line

gogo bobcats and bucks

2 for 3 not bad, bobcats winning by 1 is wtf though, they were up by 15 end of 3rd lol

I should get into sports betting. It's such easy money it seems. Just always bet on KU winning in bball cuz they always will. Jayhawks pwn all. Looks like in the OP they were underdogs vs TX lol...

Kansas was actually -2 at Texas, which is a very small favorite.

I had a bad day, 2-5.
Ball State +14.5 Fail
Atlanta -7 Fail
Phoenix -9 Fail
Baylor -2.5 Fail (won by 2)
Northwestern -3 Fail
Lakers +5.5 Woot
Orlando -5 Woot

I didn't bet Duke -6 like I wanted but I also didn't bet Cuse -10 so we'll call that a wash.

I have New Mexico +5.5 at UNLV as well. They are up by 12 at halftime.

Why did my bets fail in college? All road teams. Gotta stop doing that. Tomorrow's the last slate of NBA games for a bit. Very good games in Orlando at Cleveland and SA at Denver. I like Cleveland to crush in the double digits. Orlando is not good in back to back games when the 2nd game is on the road, with a big loss to the Bulls. Denver is going to crush as well, playing at home with Carmelo back. I'm probably wrong so let's hear some thoughts. Tomorrow's college slate is uninteresting in terms of top 25 games.

I'm staring at my picks and wondering why the hell I picked Northwestern and Ball State. I'm gonna try to limit myself to 3-4 bets a day.

Hey everyone, what do you think about this system.

"System" #1

One of the oldest NCAAB systems around happens to be one of the most successful. It's one that most experienced sports bettors have heard of, but possibly didn't realize its success.

"System" #1 is simply wager on any unranked team that is favored at home over a ranked team. That's all there is to it. An example of this would be my posted play last night with #20 Northern Iowa @ (unranked) Wichita State. Unranked Wichita State was the favored (-3) home team vs. a ranked opponent. RESULT: Wichita State 60, #20 ranked Northern Iowa 51.

The rationale behind the system makes sense, as you're taking a good team, as evident by the fact that they are favored over one of the top 25 teams in the country, who is playing in front of the home fans. The team, along with its fans, tend to get up for these games, wanting to prove they are just as good than the ranked team. You can expect the home team to give its best effort.

Thats all there is to "System" #1, pretty simple.


"System" #2

The second part of the system, or "System" #2, that isn't as widely known, is to wager against these home teams in their next game if they did cover the point spread against the ranked team.

Unranked teams that do knock-off the ranked teams (Such as Wichita State as mentioned above) are ripe for a letdown in their next game, and are often spent emotionally, as well as physically, and many times have trouble getting up for its next opponent.

Thats as simple as it gets for the novice bettor or the experienced bettor who doesnt want to spend alot of time capping games or doesnt feel comfortable tailing others. This also gives you a set of guidlines to follow that have been around for a long time and is successfull year in and year out.

I think it is pretty good. I used to find myself going, 'Lol why is a favorite underdog vs an unranked team" and betting the ranked team.

System 1. Just ask yourself where the soft money goes. If you told a random guy at a bar that he could have 100 bucks if he picked the winner, chances are he too would pick the ranked team just like the writers/coaches who voted them higher in the polls. If a bet looks like a no brainer to everyone without a brain, then there's an inelastic demand created for their side of the bet. This system is saying that this "ranking" bias creates value on the other side. (i.e. if everyone wanted to bet on heads and no one wanted to bet on tails for a coin flip then the odds would eventually move off 1-1 so that there was value on tails. In reality the book would likely just offer worse odds on heads and pocket the change, and not ever allow +EV odds on tails of course)

This is why the polling system being such a huge component of the ncaaf BCS is laughable (especially when it can be determined on the field).

A recent example in ncaaf (take care to not be results oriented with a singular example obv) was unranked OU (6-5) hosting #12 Oklahoma State (9-2) this year. OU despite being ranked lower and with the much worse record were still 10 point favorites. All your talking heads ranked OSU much higher than OU, but the people doing real analysis and dropping big bucks on the game forced a double digit line in the other direction. To the untrained eye, one might have thought, wow I can take the higher ranked team AND get 10 points. Again, take care to not place too much credit in this singular result but OU did win 27-0.

If a bet looks too good to be true to the untrained eye, there very well may be value on the other side exactly for that reason. I've heard these games described as classic trap games. I personally don't like that name, it's as if the line was set to lure in idiots. The line was set because of the action and the estimated true strengths of the teams. No one is trapping anyone except for ourselves when we think a line looks soft enough to merit a bet without any real analysis.

Universally amongst pro cappers and unbiased power ratings OU was a favorite. Debates could be made about how much better and drove the action about +-10 and I don't propose that OU-10 was even the better bet despite the result. I only wish to point out that to an untrained eye, it might have been a surprise that OU was favored by 10 points as an unranked team facing the #12 team in the country and that polls are lol. I use this example because I specifically recalled a host on ESPN radio comment about how silly vegas lines were using this example before the game because clearly to him Ok State was better. How people still ignore the studies that show that the closing line is still the best predictor of outcomes out there is lol.

Great response. However, I feel that game between 2 known teams. When you get a game like the example of Northern Iowa at Witchita State, that game isn't nearly as known to bettors. Has the line moved a lot or will move a lot as soon as it becomes public?

On February 10 2010 13:28 Jamie217 wrote: updated bets NHL NYR -125 (2.5U) Loss PITT -261 (5U) Win ANA -230 (5U) Win NJ -150 (2.5U) Loss COL -168 (2.5U) Win NCAA Southern miss +8.5 (2.5U) Win NC +5.5 (5U) Loss

Meh shitty night, +5.4 Units overall

System #1 is the nuts for NCAA basketball. A simple way to look at it is that CRIS and The Greek (the openers) should have a much better 'power rating' than the BCS or especially the AP. If you go to www.donbest.com or www.covers.com and pick a major or mid-major conference over the last ten years and see how this system has done, you'll find that you're well above the 53% required.

System #2 I don't put as much stock in...and I actually read an interesting take on it by Alan Boston (of "the Odds" fame). Essentially he says in 2010, the travel/revenge/motivation affects young basketball players less because they have grown accustomed to it because of summer leagues, AAU and what not. So in spots where normally a team can be expected to fall flat on their face, they've actually played well (see: Bruce Pearl's Tennessee Volunteer team a few times this year).

One thing I have noticed in the last few years is that if you're going to bet a road team in the NCAA, bet one that is -10 or higher lol (I'm totally serious). For example, Butler is -13 at Youngstown State. Very clearly, Butler is the cream of the Horizon League [they'd be between 16-18 points over Youngstown on a neutral court, so there is a massive talent difference here]. I'd have to go back and double check, but I'm pretty sure this subset [NCAA road favorites lined games >10 conference play] is a winner over a large sample.
I think where the casual bettor gets boned in the ass is the small road favorite (-3 to -6), because the mentality is "it's only 3 or 4 points on the road....they can cover this easy."

Opinions on this Magic-Cavaliers game tonight? Orlando dominated Cleveland last year in the playoffs, so, maybe a revenge thing going on, here? Took a small piece of Orlando on the moneyline, however, cuz they're a 2-1 dog, but, I dunno. There are a million college games today, too.

Picks of the Night:
Cleveland -6.5 vs Orlando
Denver -5.5 vs San Antonio
Gonzaga -6 vs St Marys
California -5 vs Washington

I'm not certain on Cleveland, seems like a lot people like Orlando to flat out win. Denver has been crushing at home and Spurs have been struggling recently. Gonzaga is playing at home vs a good St. Mary's team without Patty Mills. They have already won vs St Mary's on the road. Washington is terrible on the road. California is solid at home and is out for revenge after their loss at Washington.

On February 11 2010 19:07 acdawg712 wrote: Picks of the Night: Cleveland -6.5 vs Orlando Denver -5.5 vs San Antonio Gonzaga -6 vs St Marys California -5 vs Washington I'm not certain on Cleveland, seems like a lot people like Orlando to flat out win. Denver has been crushing at home and Spurs have been struggling recently. Gonzaga is playing at home vs a good St. Mary's team without Patty Mills. They have already won vs St Mary's on the road. Washington is terrible on the road. California is solid at home and is out for revenge after their loss at Washington.

i took denver and cavs as well too, also butler @ youngstown ncaab.hmph not many games today

jamie how is being up money a shitty day ;D

yeah Rain I already yelled at Jamie aobut that haha
i Had a good night

cle-orl i went back and forth so stayed away from it

all star break in basketball is the signal to get ready for baseball!

go figure the 2 picks i am least sure about win and my highest pick of the Nuggets look terrible so far. Gonzaga is up in the air. I'd be happy with 3-1.

denver is such garbage

they should get +20 for every game they play, billups sucks ever since he started appearing in pictures with poker players