Isildur1 vs Durrr Round 3! - Page 8

On November 11 2009 05:45 Nazgul wrote: I don't get why Durr keeps refilling at the tables where Isildur has 1m. I mean I understand he wants to build up a stack there and play 500k vs 500k but it just seems to me that's incredibly hard to do if you're both equally skilled. Eventually you're going to get it in a few times and Isildur only needs to win one of them.

martingale does not apply to that, we had a discussion of it not long ago, its one of those counterintuitive things, like Isildur 1M deep and dwan starting with 100k, they both go all-in pf every hand (dwan re-loading) they are EV+/-.

only takes 2-3 flips to make it even!

but i think whats tough is a matter of psychology here. sitting w/ a 100k def feels bad when someone has 1 M in front.

blom90 as ppl are claiming he had a $4000 roll in december 2008. made it into 1,4m$ in 3 months(lost most of it to that danish dude in a semi-epic battle at eurosites.)... worked on his game, got back into it... still heavily s underrolled for anything remotely close to durrrr's playfield. But all in all took him 9 months to get into 500/1k... i can imagine how the management looked like, "i got 10 buyins, MOVE UP" etc, and probably broadened the demands as he went higher..

Oo

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=14457039&postcount=260

Seems to put a decent idea that this guy is either blom and just lying about who he is to durrrr, he at the very least talks the exact same and from the description plays the same.

Also found that Viktor Blom stopped giving out his account names or saying it wasn't him because he doesn't like the publicity he got.

So i'm convinced it's him til someone comes out with amazing proof to the contrary.

Well if we are going to go by "chat analysis" I could mention I've seen Gulkines do the exact same "I can't see the monitor" line when grinding HU at 6 am ;p

Eitherway, considering he's said he's not Blom, said he was over 21 and interested in playing on HSP, I think there's an at least decent chance he's some other swedish player.

On November 11 2009 16:37 Baal wrote: Show nested quote + On November 11 2009 05:45 Nazgul wrote: I don't get why Durr keeps refilling at the tables where Isildur has 1m. I mean I understand he wants to build up a stack there and play 500k vs 500k but it just seems to me that's incredibly hard to do if you're both equally skilled. Eventually you're going to get it in a few times and Isildur only needs to win one of them. martingale does not apply to that, we had a discussion of it not long ago, its one of those counterintuitive things, like Isildur 1M deep and dwan starting with 100k, they both go all-in pf every hand (dwan re-loading) they are EV+/-.

Nazgul is not referring to Martingale.

In a game that is reasonably aggressive where people are put all-in somewhat frequently Nazgul is correct.

On November 11 2009 21:06 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On November 11 2009 16:37 Baal wrote:   On November 11 2009 05:45 Nazgul wrote: I don't get why Durr keeps refilling at the tables where Isildur has 1m. I mean I understand he wants to build up a stack there and play 500k vs 500k but it just seems to me that's incredibly hard to do if you're both equally skilled. Eventually you're going to get it in a few times and Isildur only needs to win one of them. martingale does not apply to that, we had a discussion of it not long ago, its one of those counterintuitive things, like Isildur 1M deep and dwan starting with 100k, they both go all-in pf every hand (dwan re-loading) they are EV+/-. Nazgul is not referring to Martingale. In a game that is reasonably aggressive where people are put all-in somewhat frequently Nazgul is correct.

On November 11 2009 05:45 Nazgul wrote: Eventually you're going to get it in a few times and Isildur only needs to win one of them.

so isildur has a bigger chance to win... and profit 100k
but when durrr douubles enough times and busts isildur on that table durrr wins 1M, thus making it neutral EV

On November 11 2009 21:06 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On November 11 2009 16:37 Baal wrote:   On November 11 2009 05:45 Nazgul wrote: I don't get why Durr keeps refilling at the tables where Isildur has 1m. I mean I understand he wants to build up a stack there and play 500k vs 500k but it just seems to me that's incredibly hard to do if you're both equally skilled. Eventually you're going to get it in a few times and Isildur only needs to win one of them. martingale does not apply to that, we had a discussion of it not long ago, its one of those counterintuitive things, like Isildur 1M deep and dwan starting with 100k, they both go all-in pf every hand (dwan re-loading) they are EV+/-. Nazgul is not referring to Martingale. In a game that is reasonably aggressive where people are put all-in somewhat frequently Nazgul is correct.

no he is not -_- dont make me spank you, dont insist.

On November 11 2009 21:18 player999 wrote: Show nested quote + On November 11 2009 21:06 Maynard! wrote:   On November 11 2009 16:37 Baal wrote:   On November 11 2009 05:45 Nazgul wrote: I don't get why Durr keeps refilling at the tables where Isildur has 1m. I mean I understand he wants to build up a stack there and play 500k vs 500k but it just seems to me that's incredibly hard to do if you're both equally skilled. Eventually you're going to get it in a few times and Isildur only needs to win one of them. martingale does not apply to that, we had a discussion of it not long ago, its one of those counterintuitive things, like Isildur 1M deep and dwan starting with 100k, they both go all-in pf every hand (dwan re-loading) they are EV+/-. Nazgul is not referring to Martingale. In a game that is reasonably aggressive where people are put all-in somewhat frequently Nazgul is correct.   On November 11 2009 05:45 Nazgul wrote: Eventually you're going to get it in a few times and Isildur only needs to win one of them. so isildur has a bigger chance to win... and profit 100k but when durrr douubles enough times and busts isildur on that table durrr wins 1M, thus making it neutral EV

Exactly, basically if they have 100k and 1M, to simplify it, Isildur has 9/10 odds to win those 100k, but durrr has 1/10 odds to win 1M, thus being neutrally EV.

We had a long thread about this long ago.

Sample all in - flips – Assume 100 v. 700 for ease of calculation.

durr loses 1 flip – 50%
durr wins 1 flip loses 2nd – 25%
durr wins 2 flips loses 3rd – 12.5%
durr wins 3 flips in a row – 12.5%
So durr is 12.5% to turn 100k into 100*2^3 or win 700k. He will lose 100k 87.5%.
Expectation = .125*700+.875*-100 = 0

Baal is right

http://www.bluefirepoker.com/blog.aspx?blogid=25

Galfond about durrr v isildur1 match

lol yes its neutral ev anyone who thinks otherwise has no brain

On November 11 2009 23:11 maryn wrote: http://www.bluefirepoker.com/blog.aspx?blogid=25 Galfond about durrr v isildur1 match

i didnt know isildur played him as well, what a beast