Just starting out? A word of advice - Page 3

On December 03 2005 13:53 Joe wrote: i think i understand math enough to say all these eqations are just aproximation that are easy-to-use. but i think the exact probability value that u get sthg after flop should be counted like this: probability = outs/47 + outs/46

This is a joke, right?...

actuall odds calculation only comes into play a few times really, and when they do it'll be a similar situation enough that you can pretty much just know the odds by heart. IE, how likely to complete a flush or a straight or overcards or a runner runner possibilty etc (ok the last example really only happens in really really loose limit games).

tomson - why joke? Am I totally wrong or what?

well i may be, i just dont know, if i am, just tell me pls

Lets say you have 25 outs that let you win.

If I use your formula it would be like this:
probability = (25/47)% + (25/46)% = 53% + 54% = 107%

ok i was totally wrong
and what about 1 - (47-outs)/47 * (46-outs/46) ?

25 outs? what kind of poker are you playing tomson?



skimmed through the text and updated some -_-;

taking the odds to hit and multipling by 2+1 is an approximation of the % of chances to win the hand
Ex. KK vs 99, 99 has preflop 5*2 + 1=11% chance of victory roughly

I found this article to be very interesting. Although I'm not particularly a beginner, I surely am not a professional. It really helped, thanks for the advice!

nice looking out

thnx man, nice info

wow thats alot of writting, far too much for me to read. Heres my advice its simple really.

Think and Wait.

Whatever happened to that tourney guide GroT

On November 30 2005 08:51 GroT wrote: my tourney guide is almost finished and already available here

i tried to make one a while ago, don't know if it's worth anything though... this one is better

very nice

I agree with most of what you said in the beginners guide. But, the beauty of this game is that there is no "right way" to play it in many situations. You must play according to what the table/player is offering at the time. If you are getting pot odds...go. If it is an overly aggressive table then play your rags. You will get paid off. Situations such as these take the average player to above average and beyond.

Poker is a game of inches or should I say dodging donkeys that suck out?

if you cant spot the mark....
btw low limits is mechanic,thats why its sad

can u explain how counting outs and multiplying by 2 then plus 2 equals the percentage chance?

All you have to do is count your outs and multiply by 2, and do +2

On April 20 2006 01:12 proxi.nextgen wrote: can u explain how counting outs and multiplying by 2 then plus 2 equals the percentage chance?

It's because there are roughly 50 cards in the deck when the outs are counted. 2 outs is 4% of that 50. So that's why you multiply it by two. 2x2 = 4%. However, when going in it a bit more accurately, there are something like 45 to 47 cards in the deck. The +2 is just a constant that someone pulled out of his ass to get the approximation function to be as close to the truth as possible.

Of course it's not accurate and by no means correct, but it gives accurate enough answer. Usually the +2 isn't even necessary as if it's about that 2% in there, then it's just speculation and probably some runner runner draws make enough deviation there for it to be unnecessary anyway. Remember that it's just an approximation.

Like someone said, the real probability comes from:
probability = 1 - chance of the outs NOT hitting
and
the chance of the outs NOT hitting = ((47-outs)/47) * ((46-outs)/46) (For two cards, obviously just (47-outs)/47 for just one card {turn} [and (46-outs)/46 for river])