UFC 189: McGregor vs. Mendes - Page 5

Hey PuertoRican can you pm me your skype?

Rousey ITD only that bet should be like +10 000 :D

Jon u should maybe just sell me a small % like last time no way I can tail all these bets on bovada

On July 05 2015 17:58 traxamillion wrote: Jon u should maybe just sell me a small % like last time no way I can tail all these bets on bovada

No problem. You want 10 % ($60) or 20 % ($120) - we won't include the parlays that involve future cards?

You're right, no way you can get Gardbrandt at -300 (now at -600), Garcia at -300 (now close to -400), or McGregor at +120 (now at -140)

On July 04 2015 22:11 PuertoRican wrote: Props are up on BM for the two title fights. I have Lawler KO/TKO/DQ +500 for 1 unit. Gonna lay a big bet on his money line, just trying to figure out how the line will move. Both guys always look the same during the weigh-ins, so no new information will be gained from seeing them on the scale.

You think Lawler wins????
That worries me, I'm picking Rory to win this one, I felt he didn't fight nearly as well as he could have in their first, almost like he was caught off guard as to how good Robbie was, but feel he will be a lot more prepared this time around

FWIW, McDonald was injured pretty badly in camp prior to his first fight with Lawler.

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/7/1/8...chnique-tristar-ufc-189-aldo-mcgregor

(Listen to Zahabi from 2:30 - 4:00)

How much stock you want to put into that it is completely up to you, maybe it's BS.

On July 05 2015 19:09 Zadan wrote: Show nested quote + On July 04 2015 22:11 PuertoRican wrote: Props are up on BM for the two title fights. I have Lawler KO/TKO/DQ +500 for 1 unit. Gonna lay a big bet on his money line, just trying to figure out how the line will move. Both guys always look the same during the weigh-ins, so no new information will be gained from seeing them on the scale. You think Lawler wins???? That worries me, I'm picking Rory to win this one, I felt he didn't fight nearly as well as he could have in their first, almost like he was caught off guard as to how good Robbie was, but feel he will be a lot more prepared this time around

The first thing you have to ask yourself is, do you think Rory will finish Robbie. I don't think he will.

Next, you have to remember this is a 5-round fight, and if you don't think Rory will finish Robbie, then the 5-round fight automatically favors the champion who has went 5 rounds in 3 of his last 4 fights.

Rory can win, but I don't think his jab-heavy attacking style will cause a problem for Robbie for 5 rounds, especially since he should be prepared to face a ton of jabs and eventual take down attempts. If Robbie gets taken down, I expect him to get right back up like last time. Also, Robbie's TDD has improved enough since their first fight.

The results I see:

Rory decision
Robbie decision
Robbie KO/TKO
over 3.5 rounds (most likely outcome)

On July 05 2015 18:49 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On July 05 2015 17:58 traxamillion wrote: Jon u should maybe just sell me a small % like last time no way I can tail all these bets on bovada No problem. You want 10 % ($60) or 20 % ($120) - we won't include the parlays that involve future cards? You're right, no way you can get Gardbrandt at -300 (now at -600), Garcia at -300 (now close to -400), or McGregor at +120 (now at -140)

ill take 20, thanks boss

^ This is someone's profile thumbnail picture on Sherdog.

So are the people who were claiming chad was in their top 5 p4p after his fight with Aldo dropping a ton of loot on him? Pretty surprised Conor is the favorite.

the interesting thing about conor vs chad is its very easy for me to talk myself into betting for either guys. I'm thinking chad as the underdog is v v tempting.

If your gonna bet Chad I suggest betting the KO prop.

I could see him landing his overhand in a sequence where he feigns a TD or something of that nature. Conor has an iron chin and will be well aware of that shot, but if presses forward really hard and finds himself over-committing to get inside chad's kicking distance (Chad's leg kicks are pretty underrated IMO) and rush to land something big before a well-timed td attempt by Chad, I can see him dropping his hands on a feign and going night night.

I just took him at +509 for a unit to hedge the larger Conor bet at +120, tailed the same bet PuertoRican made I believe.

I don't know if there's actually value in the bet but I like it as a hedge for sure.

This is what the next 2 weeks look like:

9th - Invicta FC 13: Cyborg vs. Van Duin
11th - UFC 189
12th - The Ultimate Fighter 21 Finale: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians
15th - UFC Fight Night: Mir vs. Duffee
17th - Bellator 140: Lima vs. Koreshkov
18th - UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Leites

Then we have the UFC on FOX card headlined by Dillashaw and Barao on the 25th.

http://fightland.vice.com/blog/judgin...look-at-conor-mcgregor-vs-chad-mendes

Great article by the always excellent Jack Slack on the match-up.

Great article. Mendes is at +165 at betfair exchange at the moment.

I think that fight might look similar to Gunnar Nelson - Rick Story.

Conor is huge for this weight though.

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Following his bout at UFC 188 in Mexico City on June 13, UFC lightweight Gilbert Melendez tested positive for exogenous origin of testosterone metabolites.

Melendez will no longer compete as scheduled on July 15. UFC officials are currently seeking a new opponent for Al Iaquinta, who was scheduled to face Melendez.


http://www.ufc.com/news/UFC-Statement-on-Gilbert-Melendez

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Melendez issued a statement to UFC.com:

"Regrettably, I tested positive in my post fight urine sample for UFC 188. I did not inject anything, but I am responsible and accept the consequences for the results. I will make sure I am better educated about the products I use and their implications. Going forward, I will ensure no products I use will contain banned substances. I am sincerely apologetic to everyone who supports me, including my fans, sponsors and the UFC. I value your trust and respect and will do everything in my power to keep it."

A rare time where I'm surprised somebody pops hot.

Rofl. What a waste, he gassed anyway....... Really shitty chain of events for him ever since he signed with the UFC (getting kinda screwed in the decision against Benson, doing the whole Ultimate Fighter show just to get raped by Pettis, and then losing a lackluster fight against his rival Alvarez, then pissing hot)

Sucks, I was looking forward to seeing Iaquinta tested again, we'll see who they replace Gil with.

It would take some unbelievable Irish lucky charm type faith to bet on Conor McGregor here.

I remember saying a while ago that Mendes is probably a bigger favorite vs Conor than Aldo. I'm not sure that I still feel this way, but I think theres certianly value on Mendes.

Tim Means ML
Mendes ML

On July 06 2015 20:49 soberstone wrote: A rare time where I'm surprised somebody pops hot. Rofl. What a waste, he gassed anyway....... Really shitty chain of events for him ever since he signed with the UFC (getting kinda screwed in the decision against Benson, doing the whole Ultimate Fighter show just to get raped by Pettis, and then losing a lackluster fight against his rival Alvarez, then pissing hot) Sucks, I was looking forward to seeing Iaquinta tested again, we'll see who they replace Gil with.

IMO, Gilbert clearly won rounds 1 and 2, then took his foot off the gas and lost the next 3 rounds.

His only win in the UFC wasn't anything special either. I clearly gave him the win 2-1, but he got dropped by Diego and Diego took his back.

I was gonna make a nice sized bet on Iaquinta to beat Gilbert, but it doesn't look like that will be happening now.

Yah, media was split on the fight so I suppose I shouldn't say 'screwed', but I scored it for Melendez.

Anyway, I liked Iaquinta as well as a dog in that fight, I wonder who they'll match him up against if anyone. Is Alvarez on call? I'd love that fight.