UFC 189: McGregor vs. Mendes

Date: Saturday, July 11th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:59 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)




Main Card (PPV)

Conor McGregor (17-2) vs. Chad Mendes (17-2) (Featherweight Championship)
Robbie Lawler (25-10) vs. Rory MacDonald (18-2) (Welterweight Championship)
Dennis Bermudez (14-4) vs. Jeremy Stephens (23-11) (Featherweight)
Gunnar Nelson (13-1-1) vs. Brandon Thatch (11-2) (Welterweight)
Brad Pickett (24-10) vs. Thomas Almeida (18-0) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Matt Brown (19-13) vs. Tim Means (24-6-1) (Welterweight)
Mike Swick (15-5) vs. Alex Garcia (12-2) (Welterweight)
Cathal Pendred (17-2-1) vs. John Howard (22-11) (Welterweight)
Cody Garbrandt (6-0) vs. Henry Briones (16-4-1) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Neil Seery (15-10) vs. Louis Smolka (8-1) (Flyweight)
Yosdenis Cedeno (10-4) vs. Cody Pfister (11-4-1) (Lightweight)

Other

• This will be the first event to feature the Reebok uniforms, which were officially revealed on June 30, 2015, after being announced on December 2, 2014.
• The event was expected to be headlined by a UFC Featherweight Championship bout between current champion Jose Aldo and top contender Conor McGregor. On June 23, it was reported that Aldo suffered a rib fracture and could pull out of the bout in light of the injury. A day later, the UFC received official medical confirmation from several doctors that Aldo did not suffer such injury. Following a review of the scans, it was determined that the champion suffered a bone bruise to his rib and cartilage injury during training. Aldo had expressed that he had every intention of fighting. Despite that, the UFC also announced a contingency plan as Chad Mendes would face McGregor for the interim UFC Featherweight Championship in the event that Aldo cannot compete. On June 30, it was confirmed that Aldo indeed pulled out of the bout and the McGregor-Mendes bout would take place at this event. UFC president Dana White said the reason for the interim title, in this case, has to do with Aldo's history of pulling out of title fights, despite having defended it only 9 months earlier. The bout will remain as the main event.
• The co-main event is expected to feature a UFC Welterweight Championship bout between current champion Robbie Lawler and top contender Rory MacDonald. Their first fight at UFC 167 ended in a split decision victory for Lawler.
• Matt Brown was briefly linked to a bout with Nate Diaz at the event. However in mid-April, Brown announced that the pairing had been scrapped. Brown is expected to remain on the card against Tim Means.
• A welterweight bout between Jake Ellenberger and Stephen Thompson was expected to take place at this event. However on May 15, the bout was moved to a main event status at The Ultimate Fighter 21 Finale, taking place a day later at the same venue.
• John Hathaway was expected to face Gunnar Nelson at the event. However, on June 23, Hathaway pulled out of the bout due to an injury. This prompted a shift in another welterweight bout on the card as Brandon Thatch was pulled from his fight against John Howard to face Nelson, while Cathal Pendred was announced as Howard's new opponent. Pendred had previously fought only 28 days before the event, when he defeated Augusto Montano at UFC 188.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Aldo > McGregor
• MacDonald > Lawler
• Bermudez > Stephens
• Thatch > Nelson
• Almeida > Pickett
• Means > Brown
• Garcia > Swick
• Pendred > Howard
• Garbrandt > Briones
• Seery > Smolka
• Cedeno > Pfister

Under normal circumstances, I don't think McGregor can take Aldo. I don't think he can handle the battle, hes used to hunting people and finishing in exploitative ways. It's not particularly likely here, and Aldo can battle. Unless he finishes it quickly, the pressure and pace will grind him. He will lose his power and after the first 1.5 rounds it will be a slippery slope.

Look for a faded and exausted McGregor by round 3 and Aldo wins in round 4 should be a good bet.

McGregor is actually a favorite now on Bovada, -140

Aldo +110

I actually bet on Aldo back in January of this year when he was -190

I was gonna recommend: Who Will Conor McGregor Fight Jose Aldo Or Chad Mendes? CHAD MENDES +217

But the line isn't up anymore on Bookmaker. I have a straight bet on it, and have it in a parlay.

The only other bet I have thus far is Tim Means +170 for 3 units.

Man I thought it would be a hard fought fight and best man on the night would win. I could see McGregor Pettisizing Aldo, but I could also see Aldo RFAing McGregor. Now with this fucking stupid rib injury, can't see any chance for Aldo. The only positive thing for him is the sheer amount of money he will make. Not sure what to think about Mendes-Mcgregor.

BTW imo use a decent name for the thread. I'm no mod or anything on LP anymore so it's really just my opinion.

Early Bets Laid Early Down to Beat Movement:
Stephens > Bermudez ML @ +160 - $50 to win $80
McDonald + Garcia + Garbrandt @ +160 - $60 to win $96.24
McGregor + McDonald + Garcia + Garbrandt @ +353 - $30 to win $105.98
McGregor + McDonald + Stephens + Garcia + Garbrandt @ +1079 - $10 to win $107.85

Other Fights that are Intriguing:

Matt Brown vs Tim Means - Could be Fight of the Year type stuff, I agree with Puerto Rican that its a dog or pass fight, I just can't quite convince myself to take Means. Puerto Rican - is there something specific in the matchup you see? I think both guys are extremely similar fighters (high octane, love the offensive Muai Thai clinch game, are both tough as shit with good cardio, etc). Matt Brown does go down when hit to the body cleanly almost every time, so maybe Means can find that liver?

Brandon Thatch vs Gunnar Nelson - Battle of top prospects that we've been sort of waiting to break into the top 10 for a couple years. Thatch is violent as hell in the clinch, but if he gets taken down is probably fucked. Nelson is extremely technically sound with a nice karate style, doesn't have big power striking, but has probably the best top game in Welterweight at this point next to Damien Maia and Rory MacDonald. This fight is really hard for me to picture which makes it a pickem in my head, but I wouldn't lay big money on the dog. Still, dog or pass and right now Gunnar is the dog.

On June 29 2015 15:50 Raidern wrote: BTW imo use a decent name for the thread. I'm no mod or anything on LP anymore so it's really just my opinion.

What a random thing to say... lmao

On June 29 2015 15:50 soberstone wrote: Matt Brown vs Tim Means - Could be Fight of the Year type stuff, I agree with Puerto Rican that its a dog or pass fight, I just can't quite convince myself to take Means. Puerto Rican - is there something specific in the matchup you see? I think both guys are extremely similar fighters (high octane, love the offensive Muai Thai clinch game, are both tough as shit with good cardio, etc). Matt Brown does go down when hit to the body cleanly almost every time, so maybe Means can find that liver?

Means is the better, younger, and less shopworn fighter, imo. Also, he can take more damage to the face and body, and uses his reach well. I'm not betting Means because he's the underdog, I'm betting him because I think he'll win.

DraftKings: The lines are up for UFC 189, and they really upped the prize pools! For example, the $3 event that usually offers a $10k/$15k/$20k total prize pool (with $800/$1k/$2k for 1st place) is now offering a $75k prize pool with a $20k 1st place prize!

On June 29 2015 10:43 TimDawg wrote: I actually bet on Aldo back in January of this year when he was -190

Did same except at -160. Oops. Not even confident anymore and wouldn't put the bet on at the same odds if it was now or never

Added:

Tim Means @ +170 - $30 to win $51
Means/Brown u 2.5 @ +105 - $20 to win $21
Nelson @ +145 - $40 to win $58
Stephens + Nelson @ +557 - $10 to win $55.17
McGregor + Stephens + McDonald + Nelson + Howard + Garcia + Garbrandt @ +5907 - $20 to win $1181.34
McGregor + Stephens + McDonald + Nelson + Means + Garcia + Garbrandt @ +7272 - $20 ton win $1454.37
McGregor + Stephens + McDonald + Nelson + Means + Howard + Garcia + Garbrandt @ +16118 - $20 ton win $3177.01

Going big on McDonald gogogogoogogogog

OP please use normal name for thread and use normal event poster =]

Mcrib gonna whup aldonado's ass whooohoooooo

On June 29 2015 21:37 ToT)MidiaN( wrote: [QUOTE]On June 29 2015 10:43 TimDawg wrote: I actually bet on Aldo back in January of this year when he was -190

Did same except at -160. Oops. Not even confident anymore and wouldn't put the bet on at the same odds if it was now or never [/QUOTE
]yeah it does seem a bit closer than -190 for sure and probably even -160, even if Aldo was healthy

I did the opposite because I'm an idiot sports degen and made another bet on Aldo at +110

On June 30 2015 08:08 TimDawg wrote: Show nested quote + On June 29 2015 21:37 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:   On June 29 2015 10:43 TimDawg wrote: I actually bet on Aldo back in January of this year when he was -190 Did same except at -160. Oops. Not even confident anymore and wouldn't put the bet on at the same odds if it was now or never yeah it does seem a bit closer than -190 for sure and probably even -160, even if Aldo was healthy I did the opposite because I'm an idiot sports degen and made another bet on Aldo at +110

Tim, where do you bet at?

Aldo has been +130 at 5dimes and Bookmaker for awhile. The public is supposed to know by tomorrow (Tuesday) if Aldo will fight or not.

On June 30 2015 08:22 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On June 30 2015 08:08 TimDawg wrote:   On June 29 2015 21:37 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:   On June 29 2015 10:43 TimDawg wrote: I actually bet on Aldo back in January of this year when he was -190 Did same except at -160. Oops. Not even confident anymore and wouldn't put the bet on at the same odds if it was now or never yeah it does seem a bit closer than -190 for sure and probably even -160, even if Aldo was healthy I did the opposite because I'm an idiot sports degen and made another bet on Aldo at +110 Tim, where do you bet at? Aldo has been +130 at 5dimes and Bookmaker for awhile. The public is supposed to know by tomorrow (Tuesday) if Aldo will fight or not.

on Bovada...I should be looking at other sites for the better lines but I'm just lazy and only bet Bovada really

So far have a bet on Jeremy Stephens at + 195 ( you can still find that line at betsafe/betsson ), I feel it is great value.
Two bets on Aldo that I am already losing money on.
I'll bet Howard probably after weigh in. If I can find Lawler at over + 170 I will slap a bet on him as well.
Also I am thinking about betting on Gunnar Nelson. I feel this is a pick em fight, and at + 150 there is value in him.

Guilherme Cruz: I’m told Jose Aldo will not train today. Official call apparently pushed back to Friday.

Dana White on SportsCenter just now: Aldo's head coach, Andre P., said Aldo's rib hurts too bad and he won't fight Conor McGregor at UFC 189. Chad Mendes will fight McGregor for the interim title.

3 units on "Chad Mendes fights Conor McGregor at UFC 189" +217 = CASHED!

Mendes Mcgregor official.

I'm happy.

They can start building it now and not have a shadow over the fight by the time it happens.

Still extremely intriguing, still big on Conor.

I think Edgar is the only guy who I'd favor over him in the division.

On July 01 2015 00:19 PuertoRican wrote: Dana White on SportsCenter just now: Aldo's head coach, Andre P., said Aldo's rib hurts too bad and he won't fight Conor McGregor at UFC 189. Chad Mendes will fight McGregor for the interim title. 3 units on "Chad Mendes fights Conor McGregor at UFC 189" +217 = CASHED!

Nice bet haha

2 Minutes after the news broke and the lines are frozen on all the sites. McGregor supposed to be +110 right now on Maker.

I'm very confident in this matchup for McGregor. Mendes maybe wins a decision, but I doubt he can ever get to McGregor on the feet due to the size discrepancy and fluidity of striking movement.

Also 2-week notice for a guy who's cardio is definitely not the best, he will be at a big disadvantage there.

I predict a third round ko for McGregor.

I had mixed feelings on Aldo because I made 30 DraftKings teams yesterday that covered a lot of different variables. Now that Aldo is out, DK will either add Mendes in place of Aldo, or not include Mendes as one of the picks like they have always done. This time is different though, as they have never had 11+ days to decide whether or not to add a fighter. When someone pulls out, we're already in fight-week with a few days to go, and they never replace the fighter. Not sure what they'll do now.

If Mendes doesn't get added to the DK lineup, I'll just delete all my teams with Aldo and keep my McGregor teams. Mendes presents different problems, so I have to keep that in mind. Dennis Siver got 2 take downs on McGregor, iirc.

On July 01 2015 00:52 PuertoRican wrote: I had mixed feelings on Aldo because I made 30 DraftKings teams yesterday that covered a lot of different variables. Now that Aldo is out, DK will either add Mendes in place of Aldo, or not include Mendes as one of the picks like they have always done. This time is different though, as they have never had 11+ days to decide whether or not to add a fighter. When someone pulls out, we're already in fight-week with a few days to go, and they never replace the fighter. Not sure what they'll do now. If Mendes doesn't get added to the DK lineup, I'll just delete all my teams with Aldo and keep my McGregor teams. Mendes presents different problems, so I have to keep that in mind. Dennis Siver got 2 take downs on McGregor, iirc.

They weren't officially scored as takedowns as McGregor was up before he was ever fully down both times, but they were close. I just don't see Mendes doing that for 5-rounds straight without running into problems, and I personally believe Conor will be just fine off his back.

I just bet 20 bucks on Mendes at +115, weird cause Mendes is the favorite in most sites.

Also brad picket at +500 seems a little exagerated to me...

Lines just opened up on Maker, McGregor at +120 - took him for $100.

I want to get the same size bet on the KO prop but its not open.

On July 01 2015 01:12 soberstone wrote: Lines just opened up on Maker, McGregor at +120 - took him for $100. I want to get the same size bet on the KO prop but its not open.

Not sure what I cap the Conor/Chad line at yet. I'll figure it out by the end of the week.

This guy on Sherdog mentioned to take the ITD line:

"play a itd line if you plan on going heavy on anything, considering how wild mendes is on the feet. he wasn't fighting intelligent for the most part against aldo, it was more biting down on his mouthpiece and moving forward.

i think either mendes wears mcgregor down and gets a tko finish, or mendes is gonna get sniped with something on the feet and end up face down, i'm leaning towards the latter just because of the size disparity and advantage in terms of reach.

then again, looking at who conor has surrounded himself with training for aldo (now mendes) didn't exactly impress when it was aldo, and it's even worse now that he gets mendes instead."

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IMO, if this fight favors anyone, it's Mendes. He has the best wrestling in the featherweight division, while McGregor has never been tested by a real wrestler, and like I mentioned already, Dennis Siver was able to get him off his feet and onto the mat, even if it wasn't for that long. Mendes is always in the gym and stays in shape throughout the year, so I'm not worried about his cardio.

Will Mendes' wrestling be enough? Dunno, but he's active on the feet, so he might overwhelm McGregor like that other guy mentioned, or get countered by McGregor as he comes in.

IMO: Comes Down to the Following:

If you subscribe to the notion that the likely situation is that McGregor's grappling is even close to as bad as it was when he was younger, than you have to think the likely outcomes is that he will get exposed easily by Mendes to the point where he can big brother him for prolonged periods of the fight and pickup a decision or tko via GnP or maybe even pull off a choke.

However, If you think the likely situation is that McGregor's grappling is probably good enough to do the trick and that Mendes will be able to get some takedowns early, not do much with them, and will find himself on the feet with McGregor for the majority of the fight then you gotta go McGregor.

The fact that McGregor didn't hesitate to fight Mendes on 2 weeks notice, grapples larger Elite grapplers like Gunnar Nelson on a daily basis, along with the straight up fact that he's a special athlete that hasn't shown any wrestling weakness in a long time leads me to believe he's perfectly capable of grappling at a high if not elite level.

Not to mention, do people not think that the UFC - Joe Silva and company - don't know the real story about McGregor's grappling and ground game at this point? Because they wouldn't have made this fight, again in my speculative opinion, if they hadn't heard rave reviews from as unbiased of sources as possible.

The latter scenario - my vision of the fight - sees this turn into the same type of fight that it did with Aldo after round 2-3 if it gets that far, and at that point, it's 100 percent McGregor in my mind. His ability to pick apart a wild and vastly outsized but Elite brawler in Mendes again coming in on short notice - and yes that does matter, perhaps less so for Mendes than other fighters, but it would be ridiculous not to try and account for that on some level - should be fairly elementary and I expect him to make it look easy at that point.

Or he clips Mendes early and the fight is a quick KO, and with Conor's use of distance and his size, I doubt the opposite happens.

Reasonable men can and will disagree on this fight, but those are my thoughts :D

Regarding Conor's BJJ, I wouldn't be worried about it one bit if I were betting on Chad. Forget the word "grappling," and focus on BJJ and wrestling. Chad clearly has the wrestling advantage, and I don't think Conor's BJJ is dangerous enough to submit Chad while Chad is on top.

I see this fight taking place solely on the feet, unless Chad gets the take down.

Rebok unveiling was pretty terrible, I watched 3 minutes for comedic purposed - shirt he is wearing is atrocious and I'm no fashionista.

On July 01 2015 02:45 PuertoRican wrote: Regarding Conor's BJJ, I wouldn't be worried about it one bit if I were betting on Chad. Forget the word "grappling," and focus on BJJ and wrestling. Chad clearly has the wrestling advantage, and I don't think Conor's BJJ is dangerous enough to submit Chad while Chad is on top. I see this fight taking place solely on the feet, unless Chad gets the take down.

Disagree.

The defensive BJJ of Conor is extremely important because if Conor gets taken down but can maintain guard, get up off his back quickly and safely, and avoid GnP and submissions all while doing so (yes, that would be very BJJ dependent) than he can still win the fight even with a disadvantage in wrestling. No doubt about it, he doesn't want to get taken down, but it may not be the end of the world if he does.

I agree, Chad's base on top will negate any offensive BJJ from Conor, but his guard and separation skills on the mat will be very important.... you make it sound like if Chad can get takedowns he will automatically win, and I don't think that is necessarily correct, he needs to be able to hold him down and inflict punishment too.

I am using the term grappling for a reason. I'm trying to encompass all the areas that might matter (offensive and defensive wrestling, 50/50 scrambles on that mat, BJJ, etc.) and Chad's wrestling advantage is certainly a huge component to anyone who isn't retarded, but to me it isn't in itself enough to win this fight.

guys which site do you use to bet? I dont usually bet on sports but im shipping it on mcgreggor

"Giblert"



"Marcio" Lyoto Machida



Jacare "Ronaldo" Souza



These uniforms have each fighters flag on the arm of their shirt. It lists Benson Henderson as Korean, even though he's a half African American / half Korean American man who was born in Colorado, lives in Phoenix, and has lived in the US his entire life. Benson said via Twitter that if he could change something about the uniforms, he would change the flag on his shirt to a "blend of RED, WHITE & BLUE flags."

On July 01 2015 04:05 flounder44 wrote: guys which site do you use to bet? I dont usually bet on sports but im shipping it on mcgreggor

Some of us use 5dimes, some of us use Bookmaker, and some of us use both. There's a ton of other books to choose from, but 5dimes and Bookmaker are the two largest books, especially for Americans.

Well I guess that is a good fight as well. I believe the UFC had really no other choice but to put together a fight for the interim belt with Conor getting the top billing, given the amount of money they pumped into this event.

Conor is supposed to be in better shape than Mendes who is coming into this fight on less than 3 weeks notice. However looking at the match up, this is a terrible match up for McGregor .While Conor has a big edge in the stand up, the threat of the takedown I believe will make things a lot more even than people are anticipating. Mendes is no longer the blanket fighter he used to be years ago. He has big power and speed in his punches and Conor is very hittable. If we add to that his big grappling advantage ( again there is a big question mark here for McGregor ) I see Chad as the favorite in this match up.

The lines will probably move a lot in Conor's favor. I will not be suprised if Mendes is like +150/200 at fight night. I will be all over that.

On July 01 2015 03:51 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On July 01 2015 02:45 PuertoRican wrote: Regarding Conor's BJJ, I wouldn't be worried about it one bit if I were betting on Chad. Forget the word "grappling," and focus on BJJ and wrestling. Chad clearly has the wrestling advantage, and I don't think Conor's BJJ is dangerous enough to submit Chad while Chad is on top. I see this fight taking place solely on the feet, unless Chad gets the take down. Disagree. The defensive BJJ of Conor is extremely important because if Conor gets taken down but can maintain guard, get up off his back quickly and safely, and avoid GnP and submissions all while doing so (yes, that would be very BJJ dependent) than he can still win the fight even with a disadvantage in wrestling. No doubt about it, he doesn't want to get taken down, but it may not be the end of the world if he does. I agree, Chad's base on top will negate any offensive BJJ from Conor, but his guard and separation skills on the mat will be very important.... you make it sound like if Chad can get takedowns he will automatically win, and I don't think that is necessarily correct, he needs to be able to hold him down and inflict punishment too. I am using the term grappling for a reason. I'm trying to encompass all the areas that might matter (offensive and defensive wrestling, 50/50 scrambles on that mat, BJJ, etc.) and Chad's wrestling advantage is certainly a huge component to anyone who isn't retarded, but to me it isn't in itself enough to win this fight.

I would agree with this but you definitely win fights on takedowns alone. In Condit vs Henderson Henderson pretty much got his ass whooped but he dipped Condit like 12+ times. He always got up and didn't take much damage but for some reason takedown are worth hella points.

I've been in a number of street fights where scoring doesn't matter just hurting the other guy. Takedowns themselves pretty much count for nothing it is what you do with the takedown imo

Along with being a small welterweight going up against one of the biggest welterweights, this will be the first time Gunnar Nelson is fighting outside of Europe.

Everyone talking like mendes is going to wrestle the fk out of mcgregor, in reality mendes has not wrestled the fk out of anyone in his previous fights and instead choose to box. Mcgregors height, reach, stance and skills + crowd will make this fight a 1 sided beatdown. This is going to be like the Joanna vs Carla fight.

On July 01 2015 16:33 jvilla777 wrote: Everyone talking like mendes is going to wrestle the fk out of mcgregor, in reality mendes has not wrestled the fk out of anyone in his previous fights and instead choose to box. Mcgregors height, reach, stance and skills + crowd will make this fight a 1 sided beatdown. This is going to be like the Joanna vs Carla fight.

I don't think Mendes will wrestle-fuck McGregor, but he has the clear wrestling advantage.

The reason why Mendes doesn't wrestle-fuck his opponents is because his striking is good enough to beat them on the feet, along with his power.

Take a look at his UFC record (not WEC record): http://www.ufc.com/fighter/Chad-Mendes

Mendes has KO`ed 5 of his 10 opponents in the UFC (all 1st round finishes); he didn't take any of those 5 guys down. In his 4 fights that went to a decision, he took all of his opponents down at last once. His one loss was that fight where he turned around real fast after getting his balance and ran right into Aldo's knee with 1 second left in the round.

So anyway, Mendes will use his wrestling when needed, otherwise, he'll keep it on the feet. Will he be able to take McGregor down at will? I think he'll be able to get most of his take downs. Will McGregor have any answer if Mendes is on top of him? Nobody really knows yet.

On July 01 2015 15:07 traxamillion wrote: Show nested quote + On July 01 2015 03:51 soberstone wrote:   On July 01 2015 02:45 PuertoRican wrote: Regarding Conor's BJJ, I wouldn't be worried about it one bit if I were betting on Chad. Forget the word "grappling," and focus on BJJ and wrestling. Chad clearly has the wrestling advantage, and I don't think Conor's BJJ is dangerous enough to submit Chad while Chad is on top. I see this fight taking place solely on the feet, unless Chad gets the take down. Disagree. The defensive BJJ of Conor is extremely important because if Conor gets taken down but can maintain guard, get up off his back quickly and safely, and avoid GnP and submissions all while doing so (yes, that would be very BJJ dependent) than he can still win the fight even with a disadvantage in wrestling. No doubt about it, he doesn't want to get taken down, but it may not be the end of the world if he does. I agree, Chad's base on top will negate any offensive BJJ from Conor, but his guard and separation skills on the mat will be very important.... you make it sound like if Chad can get takedowns he will automatically win, and I don't think that is necessarily correct, he needs to be able to hold him down and inflict punishment too. I am using the term grappling for a reason. I'm trying to encompass all the areas that might matter (offensive and defensive wrestling, 50/50 scrambles on that mat, BJJ, etc.) and Chad's wrestling advantage is certainly a huge component to anyone who isn't retarded, but to me it isn't in itself enough to win this fight. I would agree with this but you definitely win fights on takedowns alone. In Condit vs Henderson Henderson pretty much got his ass whooped but he dipped Condit like 12+ times. He always got up and didn't take much damage but for some reason takedown are worth hella points. I've been in a number of street fights where scoring doesn't matter just hurting the other guy. Takedowns themselves pretty much count for nothing it is what you do with the takedown imo

I think you mean Condit vs Hendricks.

I think this fight is actually a perfect example to point out why I don't think takedown's alone can win Mendes this particular fight if he's not able to pass guard and beat up Conor - unlike the Hendricks v Condit fight - which again is a great example of a fight where takedowns alone essentially did win a fight.

Let's consider a fight just like your example where Mendes gets repeated takedowns but can't pass Conor's guard or get much done on top and Conor is able to get up frequently (just like Hendricks vs Condit)

2 questions I would ask if we use this fight as a direct comparison:

- If Conor hits Mendes half as often as Condit blasted Hendricks in between sequences of getting rag-dolled, can Mendes avoid getting KO'd in the process?
- Does Hendricks win that fight if it goes 10 more minutes? (This is a 5-round affair, the Condit v Hendricks fight was 3 rounds)

The answer is likely no to both questions. That's where I feel the difference is. Mendes will need to do more than Hendricks was able to do on top in terms of guard passing, ground and pound, etc or else he'll either get KO'd at some point or will lose gas and lose rounds 3-5 badly.

If I was a bookie I'd institute McGregor rests Balls on Forehead at +20000, steal Irish lute with the slickness.

On July 02 2015 00:35 soberstone wrote: If I was a bookie I'd institute McGregor rests Balls on Forehead at +20000, steal Irish lute with the slickness.

Wanderlei approves.

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I'm not a doctor, but I guess the penis-looking bone is a broken rib...??? dunno.

Source:

i wanna see aldo's head on that rib cage otherwise i call BS on these random xrays in brazil
finally wrestlerfucker fans will get their wish about mcgregoat not fighting their boring heroes

Bullshit injury......................was so looking forward to the fight, this could very well end up like the Jones/Cormier/Rumble situation where the replacement ends up winning. And if Mendes wins, I think it should be pretty decisive.

Aldo doesn't strike me as the type of guy to make up a bullshit injury just to get out of a fight

why in the fuck would he fake an injury to get out of the biggest fight in his career after the UFC spent millions promoting it?

Dana is clearly at the brink of a heartattack since Mendez might derail his money train, obviously this is a legit injury

That's a fractured rib, not bruised. UFC threw Aldo under the bus here. LOL at anybody who thinks that Aldo is faking an injury.

I still can't believe they threw Conor in there with Mendes. What a dumb decision that is. Rolling the dice big time.

On July 02 2015 15:19 northsails wrote: That's a fractured rib, not bruised. UFC threw Aldo under the bus here. LOL at anybody who thinks that Aldo is faking an injury. I still can't believe they threw Conor in there with Mendes. What a dumb decision that is. Rolling the dice big time.

UFC threw Aldo under the bus? After throwing millions in promotion and than the guy manages to get injured 3 weeks out and pull out of his 5th championship fight, they give him the opportunity to fight, get paid, and have an auto-rematch clause (which has been confirmed)? That's throwing him under the bus? No.

As far as Aldo 'faking an injury' or 'being scarred', I wouldn't even acknowledge the idiot who thinks that.

Aldo is now counting on the fact that McGregor wins, or else he never becomes rich, and that actually is interesting to me. He's gambling on McGregor just like the UFC.

As far as the decision to throw in Conor with Mendes, we'll see. You could be right there.

Definitely could not push McGregor fighting back. One of the number one threats to the UFC is the narrative becoming that you can never buy a UFC ticket in advance and plan a vacation because you'll just get unequivocally fucked (which happens to be true).

They had to have McGregor fight. I personally believe Edgar would have been a tougher matchup - and obviously they do too. They had to have McGregor headline for a multitude of obvious reasons, so that rules out all the juicy 155 fights, so what does that really leave us with?

Essentially, the UFC has been forced to parlay McGregor instead of betting him straight-up, because if he wins this fight and gets to fight Aldo next (provided he can avoid getting injured and pulling out for a 6th time) - that's even bigger and better for them.

Either way, McGregor has such drawing potential that I bet this PPV still does 600k buys, 3 times as many as Aldo v Mendes 2 (which did 200k). Aldo v McGregor was apparently trending to break a million for the first time since Weidman Silva II.

We're writing to inform you of an addition to the rules for MMA. With the news that next week's UFC 189 headliner fight will now feature Chad Mendes and not Jose Aldo, we have decided to make the following addition to our rules:

"Fighter eligibility determinations and decisions around fighter inclusion into the player pool are at the sole discretion of DraftKings. In cases where a fighter withdraws or a fight is canceled, replacement fighters may be added to the player pool up to 48 hours before the event start time. Withdrawn fighters will be labeled as out ("O") and will receive zero points for the scoring period. Additionally, an email notification will be sent out any time a fighter is added to the player pool."

Considering this fight is more than a week away, we feel this additional rule benefits everyone and will improve the quality of our MMA user experience.

As of this afternoon, Chad Mendes has officially been added to the player pool for the UFC 189 fight on July 11th and Jose Aldo has been labeled as out ("O") and will receive zero points for the scoring period. If you have any additional questions please contact support@draftkings.com.

On July 02 2015 16:27 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On July 02 2015 15:19 northsails wrote: That's a fractured rib, not bruised. UFC threw Aldo under the bus here. LOL at anybody who thinks that Aldo is faking an injury. I still can't believe they threw Conor in there with Mendes. What a dumb decision that is. Rolling the dice big time. UFC threw Aldo under the bus? After throwing millions in promotion and than the guy manages to get injured 3 weeks out and pull out of his 5th championship fight, they give him the opportunity to fight, get paid, and have an auto-rematch clause (which has been confirmed)? That's throwing him under the bus? No.

I meant that when you have a fractured rib you can't fight. UFC knew that and that is why they came up with a back up plan hoping that Aldo fights injured and claimed he has a bruised rib. When he pulled out they made him look like he has some pain and decided to quit. Btw I don't think Aldo is very smart to leave this money on the table. Even If he loses he still rakes in back to back 1mln+ PPVs. Gambling it all on Conor to whoop Mendes is stupid but I guess we will see soon enough if it was the right decision. Risking 5-10 mln $, when you are on 200k a fight deal is crazy.

"USADA pushes back IV ban for UFC fighters until October."

This is good news for fighters like Brandon Thatch, who is one of the two biggest welterweights in the UFC.

Calling the rib injury bullshit injury only makes you guys seem retarded and shows your lack of knowledge
A bruised rib needs at least 4 weeks rest if the injury is worse that time is prolonged. I'm glad they postponed it I'd rather see both fighters at 100% when they meet up. There was only 1 way the fight would've ended with an injured rib:
Connor abuses the shit out of Jose's rib and destroys him cause the pain is ridiculous

This isn't Ancient Rome time fix your mental game lawl

On July 02 2015 18:27 northsails wrote: . Btw I don't think Aldo is very smart to leave this money on the table. Even If he loses he still rakes in back to back 1mln+ PPVs. Gambling it all on Conor to whoop Mendes is stupid but I guess we will see soon enough if it was the right decision. Risking 5-10 mln $, when you are on 200k a fight deal is crazy.

It's a matter of perception, different people got different priorities and I doubt Aldo's are money at this point in life

way before the "injury", getting a conor clone to practice with. nobody knows if it's true or not, do you guys know Aldo personally? if not your guess is as shitty as mine

On July 02 2015 18:27 northsails wrote: Show nested quote + On July 02 2015 16:27 soberstone wrote:   On July 02 2015 15:19 northsails wrote: That's a fractured rib, not bruised. UFC threw Aldo under the bus here. LOL at anybody who thinks that Aldo is faking an injury. I still can't believe they threw Conor in there with Mendes. What a dumb decision that is. Rolling the dice big time. UFC threw Aldo under the bus? After throwing millions in promotion and than the guy manages to get injured 3 weeks out and pull out of his 5th championship fight, they give him the opportunity to fight, get paid, and have an auto-rematch clause (which has been confirmed)? That's throwing him under the bus? No. I meant that when you have a fractured rib you can't fight. UFC knew that and that is why they came up with a back up plan hoping that Aldo fights injured and claimed he has a bruised rib. When he pulled out they made him look like he has some pain and decided to quit. Btw I don't think Aldo is very smart to leave this money on the table. Even If he loses he still rakes in back to back 1mln+ PPVs. Gambling it all on Conor to whoop Mendes is stupid but I guess we will see soon enough if it was the right decision. Risking 5-10 mln $, when you are on 200k a fight deal is crazy.

Yah, I think UFC and Aldo's interests in trying to cover up the injury were mutually beneficial until Aldo decided he couldn't fight. They weren't throwing him under the bus, they were trying to protect his and their own pocketbooks by downplaying the injury. Normal stuff.

On July 02 2015 22:01 whamm! wrote: way before the "injury", getting a conor clone to practice with. nobody knows if it's true or not, do you guys know Aldo personally? if not your guess is as shitty as mine

Everybody know's it's true. His name is Jonas Bilharinho.

http://fightland.vice.com/blog/check-...dos-sparring-partner-jonas-bilharinho

Added another bet on the Means Brown under as it moved 10 points and I like the under.

Put $40 on the Almeida Picket under 1.5 rds at +130. I don't understand how this is at + money when Almeida is a -750 favorite and the way he will presumably win is by knocking an aging picket out easily and likely early.

Need to also look Almeida's takedown defense because the only part of Picket's game that I think is underrated is his wrestling so if I could get him by decision at +1000ish would be fairly attractive if Almeida has unproven TDD.

On July 03 2015 03:14 soberstone wrote: Added another bet on the Means Brown under as it moved 10 points and I like the under. Put $40 on the Almeida Picket under 1.5 rds at +130. I don't understand how this is at + money when Almeida is a -750 favorite and the way he will presumably win is by knocking an aging picket out easily and likely early. Need to also look Almeida's takedown defense because the only part of Picket's game that I think is underrated is his wrestling so if I could get him by decision at +1000ish would be fairly attractive if Almeida has unproven TDD.

You could easily lose both bets. Pickett is old and has taken a lot of punishment over the years, but he hasn't been knocked out against any of the killers he has faced. He has only been TKO'ed once, and that was 10.5 years ago. If he eats a lot of shots and won't go down, the over will hit and he'll lose a decision.

I expect Almeida to win, but Pickett does have a good chin and the better take downs. He has power too, but he brawls too much, so it's hard for him to land a lot of clean shots against the top 10 fighters.

Another thing to remember is that they're fighting in a big cage, and this is do-or-die for Pickett, so he probably won't want to brawl with a much younger, more accurate striker, and better finisher than him who is most deadly in round 1.

Almeida isn't afraid to trade shots, so that's something to take note of. I wouldn't be surprised if Pickett tries to wrestle in round 1.

When Mendes puts McGregor on the mat and pounds him for 5 rounds the 3rd fight with Aldo will be a tough sell for the UFC. Make no mistake they are gameplanning wrestlefuck for this fight and Conor will be on his back and getting smashed throughout.

On July 02 2015 08:17 Baalim wrote: why in the fuck would he fake an injury to get out of the biggest fight in his career after the UFC spent millions promoting it? Dana is clearly at the brink of a heartattack since Mendez might derail his money train, obviously this is a legit injury

And this obviously.

His conor clone sparring partner broke his rib? I thought it was Barao at first?

On July 03 2015 11:20 whamm! wrote: His conor clone sparring partner broke his rib? I thought it was Barao at first?

It was neither. Just a random up and comer that was sparring with him, who supposedly 'slipped on some sweat while throwing a spinning back kick'.

Listening to MMA Road Show - Big cage for the next 7 events.

Big cage for UFC 189 and TUF finale and all the way up to Aug 8th UFC Fight Night 73.
So that's big cages for Fight Night 71, 72, Fox 16, UFC 190, 73.

On July 03 2015 04:44 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On July 03 2015 03:14 soberstone wrote: Added another bet on the Means Brown under as it moved 10 points and I like the under. Put $40 on the Almeida Picket under 1.5 rds at +130. I don't understand how this is at + money when Almeida is a -750 favorite and the way he will presumably win is by knocking an aging picket out easily and likely early. Need to also look Almeida's takedown defense because the only part of Picket's game that I think is underrated is his wrestling so if I could get him by decision at +1000ish would be fairly attractive if Almeida has unproven TDD. You could easily lose both bets. Pickett is old and has taken a lot of punishment over the years, but he hasn't been knocked out against any of the killers he has faced. He has only been TKO'ed once, and that was 10.5 years ago. If he eats a lot of shots and won't go down, the over will hit and he'll lose a decision. I expect Almeida to win, but Pickett does have a good chin and the better take downs. He has power too, but he brawls too much, so it's hard for him to land a lot of clean shots against the top 10 fighters. Another thing to remember is that they're fighting in a big cage, and this is do-or-die for Pickett, so he probably won't want to brawl with a much younger, more accurate striker, and better finisher than him who is most deadly in round 1. Almeida isn't afraid to trade shots, so that's something to take note of. I wouldn't be surprised if Pickett tries to wrestle in round 1.

Yes, fully aware I could easily lose a +130 bet.

What killer's are you talking about? In my opinion, he's fought 3 'killers' in recent memory, and the results were:

Michael McDonald (got 10-8'd and then finished at the beginning of round 2)
Renan Barao (finished in the first round round in similar fashion)
Eddie Wineland (lost a decision where he got dropped multiple times IIRC).

Picket is older now and this Almeida kid looks a lot more dangerous than Wineland and similar to the other two.

On July 03 2015 17:27 PuertoRican wrote: Listening to MMA Road Show - Big cage for the next 7 events. Big cage for UFC 189 and TUF finale and all the way up to Aug 8th UFC Fight Night 73. So that's big cages for Fight Night 71, 72, Fox 16, UFC 190, 73.

Good to know, ty, don't have to worry about the small cage manipulating odds.

soo Mendes is an easy bet at +130 i guess?

On July 03 2015 23:19 Spitfiree wrote: soo Mendes is an easy bet at +130 i guess?

Dunno, depends on the bettor.

I still haven't decided who to bet on, or how I'll bet it. As soon as the prop lines are released on Bookmaker, I'll have an idea. Props won't be released on BM until Thursday at the earliest, so I'm not even thinking about the fight yet.

I very much like Mendes by KO/TKO at + 600.

On July 03 2015 23:24 northsails wrote: I very much like Mendes by KO/TKO at + 600.

I think that's a good bet as well. If Mendes ITD was around the same, I'd really like the line (I could see a RNC possibility) - but it's not. I think him winning ITD is far more likely than him winning a decision.

If "Fight doesn't go to decision" stays at -260 I will throw 5 units on that or parlay it with another line I like. I absolutely love that line. This fight ends within 5 rounds 8 or 9/10 times IMO. I also think it's a better bet than the under 2.5 at -105 because a lot of the finishing scenarios are equally or more plausible in the later rounds.

Also Picket by KO at +2000 is a solid bet. I think a KO with Picket landing a winging hook or uppercut while getting battered is just as likely as him winning a decision at +1200. Almeida throws way to much volume and I highly doubt Picket can wrestle 2 rounds away.

Just wish Bookmaker would release the damn props.

It's too big of a damn card to waste all that potential money letting 5dimes and Sportbet take all the early juice, wtf.

Edit: Fuckit, started a 5-dimes account with a couple hundred dollars on it. Gonna bet some props.

Rofl, Reebok selling a Conor McGregor championship 'jersey' or whatever this garbage is, and he's not even in a real championship fight. Hilarious.

But hey, supply and demand I suppose.

http://www.reebok.co.uk/ufc-conor-mcgregor-jersey/AI4073.html

On July 04 2015 00:05 soberstone wrote: Rofl, Reebok selling a Conor McGregor championship 'jersey' or whatever this garbage is, and he's not even in a real championship fight. Hilarious. But hey, supply and demand I suppose. http://www.reebok.co.uk/ufc-conor-mcgregor-jersey/AI4073.html

^ Norifumi Yakovlev. Should be Norifumi Yamamoto.



Pickett. Not Brad Pickett, just Pickett.

LOL.

Just laid down a ton of bets on the new 5-dimes roll:

Props for 189:

Mendes wins in Rd 2 PROP $20.00 +1,000
Mendes via KO/TKO PROP $20.00 +598
McGregor via Submission PROP $10.00 +1,115
Nelson via KO/TKO PROP $10.00 +1,695
Pickett wins by KO/TKO PROP $10.00 +2,200
Means wins ITD PROP $20.00 +405
Howard via 3 Rd Decision PROP $20.00 +255
Pendred via KO/TKO PROP $10.00 +700

Parlays for 189/UFC FN the next night:

Thompson + Mcgregor/Mendes WNGTD + Howard will not win ITD PL $40.00 +152
McGregor/Mendes WNGTD + Almeida/Picket WNGTD PL $40.00 -105

Sick Future Hail Mary's

Holloway > Oliveria + Ovince St. Pruex > Texeira + Duffee + McGregor/Mendes WNGTD + Garbrant ITD PL $20.00 +1,096
MacDonald + Masvidal + Holloway + Mcgregor ITD + Thompson via KO/TKO/DQ PL $20.00 +1,457
Holloway + Ovince St. Pruex + Rousey ITD + Dillashaw + Thompson + McGregor/Mendes WNGTD + Garbrant ITD PL $10.00 +2,559

Already have 27 bets totaling $720 dollars / 36 units on this card. lol.

On July 04 2015 00:14 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On July 04 2015 00:05 soberstone wrote: Rofl, Reebok selling a Conor McGregor championship 'jersey' or whatever this garbage is, and he's not even in a real championship fight. Hilarious. But hey, supply and demand I suppose. http://www.reebok.co.uk/ufc-conor-mcgregor-jersey/AI4073.html ^ Norifumi Yakovlev. Should be Norifumi Yamamoto. Pickett. Not Brad Pickett, just Pickett.

The Pickett jersey could be so much better if they gave it a little individuality. Brad "1-Punch" Pickett with some old school Irish boxing looking guy or something not completely lame and unoriginal, I dunno.

The uniforms can still be 'uniform' in nature and still do something special for each fighter, it's not that much to ask each fighter to just send in something they want that is unique to them and cool, approve it, and do it. Fine, not every fighter out of 600, but how about once you've had 3 UFC fights. Now it's 200 or something very reasonable.

If they did this kind of thing for every fighter, it would sell more shit, be cooler, help market the fighters, and not be total overpriced shit.

Instead we get this. They've probably sold under 100 'kits'. Hopefully it'll make them either give up or do a hell of a lot better when none of this shit sells. And if it does sell, fuck the world.

Props are up on BM for the two title fights. I have Lawler KO/TKO/DQ +500 for 1 unit. Gonna lay a big bet on his money line, just trying to figure out how the line will move. Both guys always look the same during the weigh-ins, so no new information will be gained from seeing them on the scale.

Hey PuertoRican can you pm me your skype?

Rousey ITD only that bet should be like +10 000 :D

Jon u should maybe just sell me a small % like last time no way I can tail all these bets on bovada

On July 05 2015 17:58 traxamillion wrote: Jon u should maybe just sell me a small % like last time no way I can tail all these bets on bovada

No problem. You want 10 % ($60) or 20 % ($120) - we won't include the parlays that involve future cards?

You're right, no way you can get Gardbrandt at -300 (now at -600), Garcia at -300 (now close to -400), or McGregor at +120 (now at -140)

On July 04 2015 22:11 PuertoRican wrote: Props are up on BM for the two title fights. I have Lawler KO/TKO/DQ +500 for 1 unit. Gonna lay a big bet on his money line, just trying to figure out how the line will move. Both guys always look the same during the weigh-ins, so no new information will be gained from seeing them on the scale.

You think Lawler wins????
That worries me, I'm picking Rory to win this one, I felt he didn't fight nearly as well as he could have in their first, almost like he was caught off guard as to how good Robbie was, but feel he will be a lot more prepared this time around

FWIW, McDonald was injured pretty badly in camp prior to his first fight with Lawler.

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/7/1/8...chnique-tristar-ufc-189-aldo-mcgregor

(Listen to Zahabi from 2:30 - 4:00)

How much stock you want to put into that it is completely up to you, maybe it's BS.

On July 05 2015 19:09 Zadan wrote: Show nested quote + On July 04 2015 22:11 PuertoRican wrote: Props are up on BM for the two title fights. I have Lawler KO/TKO/DQ +500 for 1 unit. Gonna lay a big bet on his money line, just trying to figure out how the line will move. Both guys always look the same during the weigh-ins, so no new information will be gained from seeing them on the scale. You think Lawler wins???? That worries me, I'm picking Rory to win this one, I felt he didn't fight nearly as well as he could have in their first, almost like he was caught off guard as to how good Robbie was, but feel he will be a lot more prepared this time around

The first thing you have to ask yourself is, do you think Rory will finish Robbie. I don't think he will.

Next, you have to remember this is a 5-round fight, and if you don't think Rory will finish Robbie, then the 5-round fight automatically favors the champion who has went 5 rounds in 3 of his last 4 fights.

Rory can win, but I don't think his jab-heavy attacking style will cause a problem for Robbie for 5 rounds, especially since he should be prepared to face a ton of jabs and eventual take down attempts. If Robbie gets taken down, I expect him to get right back up like last time. Also, Robbie's TDD has improved enough since their first fight.

The results I see:

Rory decision
Robbie decision
Robbie KO/TKO
over 3.5 rounds (most likely outcome)

On July 05 2015 18:49 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On July 05 2015 17:58 traxamillion wrote: Jon u should maybe just sell me a small % like last time no way I can tail all these bets on bovada No problem. You want 10 % ($60) or 20 % ($120) - we won't include the parlays that involve future cards? You're right, no way you can get Gardbrandt at -300 (now at -600), Garcia at -300 (now close to -400), or McGregor at +120 (now at -140)

ill take 20, thanks boss

^ This is someone's profile thumbnail picture on Sherdog.

So are the people who were claiming chad was in their top 5 p4p after his fight with Aldo dropping a ton of loot on him? Pretty surprised Conor is the favorite.

the interesting thing about conor vs chad is its very easy for me to talk myself into betting for either guys. I'm thinking chad as the underdog is v v tempting.

If your gonna bet Chad I suggest betting the KO prop.

I could see him landing his overhand in a sequence where he feigns a TD or something of that nature. Conor has an iron chin and will be well aware of that shot, but if presses forward really hard and finds himself over-committing to get inside chad's kicking distance (Chad's leg kicks are pretty underrated IMO) and rush to land something big before a well-timed td attempt by Chad, I can see him dropping his hands on a feign and going night night.

I just took him at +509 for a unit to hedge the larger Conor bet at +120, tailed the same bet PuertoRican made I believe.

I don't know if there's actually value in the bet but I like it as a hedge for sure.

This is what the next 2 weeks look like:

9th - Invicta FC 13: Cyborg vs. Van Duin
11th - UFC 189
12th - The Ultimate Fighter 21 Finale: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians
15th - UFC Fight Night: Mir vs. Duffee
17th - Bellator 140: Lima vs. Koreshkov
18th - UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Leites

Then we have the UFC on FOX card headlined by Dillashaw and Barao on the 25th.

http://fightland.vice.com/blog/judgin...look-at-conor-mcgregor-vs-chad-mendes

Great article by the always excellent Jack Slack on the match-up.

Great article. Mendes is at +165 at betfair exchange at the moment.

I think that fight might look similar to Gunnar Nelson - Rick Story.

Conor is huge for this weight though.

----------

Following his bout at UFC 188 in Mexico City on June 13, UFC lightweight Gilbert Melendez tested positive for exogenous origin of testosterone metabolites.

Melendez will no longer compete as scheduled on July 15. UFC officials are currently seeking a new opponent for Al Iaquinta, who was scheduled to face Melendez.


http://www.ufc.com/news/UFC-Statement-on-Gilbert-Melendez

----------

Melendez issued a statement to UFC.com:

"Regrettably, I tested positive in my post fight urine sample for UFC 188. I did not inject anything, but I am responsible and accept the consequences for the results. I will make sure I am better educated about the products I use and their implications. Going forward, I will ensure no products I use will contain banned substances. I am sincerely apologetic to everyone who supports me, including my fans, sponsors and the UFC. I value your trust and respect and will do everything in my power to keep it."

A rare time where I'm surprised somebody pops hot.

Rofl. What a waste, he gassed anyway....... Really shitty chain of events for him ever since he signed with the UFC (getting kinda screwed in the decision against Benson, doing the whole Ultimate Fighter show just to get raped by Pettis, and then losing a lackluster fight against his rival Alvarez, then pissing hot)

Sucks, I was looking forward to seeing Iaquinta tested again, we'll see who they replace Gil with.

It would take some unbelievable Irish lucky charm type faith to bet on Conor McGregor here.

I remember saying a while ago that Mendes is probably a bigger favorite vs Conor than Aldo. I'm not sure that I still feel this way, but I think theres certianly value on Mendes.

Tim Means ML
Mendes ML

On July 06 2015 20:49 soberstone wrote: A rare time where I'm surprised somebody pops hot. Rofl. What a waste, he gassed anyway....... Really shitty chain of events for him ever since he signed with the UFC (getting kinda screwed in the decision against Benson, doing the whole Ultimate Fighter show just to get raped by Pettis, and then losing a lackluster fight against his rival Alvarez, then pissing hot) Sucks, I was looking forward to seeing Iaquinta tested again, we'll see who they replace Gil with.

IMO, Gilbert clearly won rounds 1 and 2, then took his foot off the gas and lost the next 3 rounds.

His only win in the UFC wasn't anything special either. I clearly gave him the win 2-1, but he got dropped by Diego and Diego took his back.

I was gonna make a nice sized bet on Iaquinta to beat Gilbert, but it doesn't look like that will be happening now.

Yah, media was split on the fight so I suppose I shouldn't say 'screwed', but I scored it for Melendez.

Anyway, I liked Iaquinta as well as a dog in that fight, I wonder who they'll match him up against if anyone. Is Alvarez on call? I'd love that fight.

On July 05 2015 20:30 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On July 05 2015 19:09 Zadan wrote:   On July 04 2015 22:11 PuertoRican wrote: Props are up on BM for the two title fights. I have Lawler KO/TKO/DQ +500 for 1 unit. Gonna lay a big bet on his money line, just trying to figure out how the line will move. Both guys always look the same during the weigh-ins, so no new information will be gained from seeing them on the scale. You think Lawler wins???? That worries me, I'm picking Rory to win this one, I felt he didn't fight nearly as well as he could have in their first, almost like he was caught off guard as to how good Robbie was, but feel he will be a lot more prepared this time around The first thing you have to ask yourself is, do you think Rory will finish Robbie. I don't think he will. Next, you have to remember this is a 5-round fight, and if you don't think Rory will finish Robbie, then the 5-round fight automatically favors the champion who has went 5 rounds in 3 of his last 4 fights. Rory can win, but I don't think his jab-heavy attacking style will cause a problem for Robbie for 5 rounds, especially since he should be prepared to face a ton of jabs and eventual take down attempts. If Robbie gets taken down, I expect him to get right back up like last time. Also, Robbie's TDD has improved enough since their first fight. The results I see: Rory decision Robbie decision Robbie KO/TKO over 3.5 rounds (most likely outcome)

I agree with you on all accounts, but I see Rory fighting alot smarter than Hendricks did, as well as not gassing out like Hendricks did in round 4 and round 5 where he basically gave the rounds away.
Anyways going to be nervous during that fight lol.

On July 07 2015 01:02 soberstone wrote: Yah, media was split on the fight so I suppose I shouldn't say 'screwed', but I scored it for Melendez. Anyway, I liked Iaquinta as well as a dog in that fight, I wonder who they'll match him up against if anyone. Is Alvarez on call? I'd love that fight.

Cerrone sent out a Tweet that he wanted to take the short notice fight against Iaquinta.

Also, Melendez is banned from MMA for 1 year due to the failed drug test.

On July 07 2015 01:14 Zadan wrote: Show nested quote + On July 05 2015 20:30 PuertoRican wrote:   On July 05 2015 19:09 Zadan wrote:   On July 04 2015 22:11 PuertoRican wrote: Props are up on BM for the two title fights. I have Lawler KO/TKO/DQ +500 for 1 unit. Gonna lay a big bet on his money line, just trying to figure out how the line will move. Both guys always look the same during the weigh-ins, so no new information will be gained from seeing them on the scale. You think Lawler wins???? That worries me, I'm picking Rory to win this one, I felt he didn't fight nearly as well as he could have in their first, almost like he was caught off guard as to how good Robbie was, but feel he will be a lot more prepared this time around The first thing you have to ask yourself is, do you think Rory will finish Robbie. I don't think he will. Next, you have to remember this is a 5-round fight, and if you don't think Rory will finish Robbie, then the 5-round fight automatically favors the champion who has went 5 rounds in 3 of his last 4 fights. Rory can win, but I don't think his jab-heavy attacking style will cause a problem for Robbie for 5 rounds, especially since he should be prepared to face a ton of jabs and eventual take down attempts. If Robbie gets taken down, I expect him to get right back up like last time. Also, Robbie's TDD has improved enough since their first fight. The results I see: Rory decision Robbie decision Robbie KO/TKO over 3.5 rounds (most likely outcome) I agree with you on all accounts, but I see Rory fighting alot smarter than Hendricks did, as well as not gassing out like Hendricks did in round 4 and round 5 where he basically gave the rounds away. Anyways going to be nervous during that fight lol.

Rory fighting smarter than Hendricks is a definite possibility, however, you can't just say "you see" or "I expect" Rory to not gas in a 5-round fight, because he's never fought 5 rounds before.

Not you in particular but, anyone who says that Rory has the better cardio, or that they think Rory will take over in the championship rounds is lying. As of right now, we have no idea how Rory will do over the course of 25 minutes, especially if he isn't able to set the pace of the fight with his jab and take downs. If it's a striking battle for 90% of the fight, Rory will get out-worked imo.

It's Welterweight, if you re a championship contender and fail to have the cardio at that division you fail at your job

$100 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/44609...sy-mma-mendes-vs-mcgregor-711-T-free/

from before holloway fight

You dun goofed puertorican, I'll post it

Dana White: Conor McGregor offered to bet us $3 million he'd knock out Chad Mendes

Dana White said on Tuesday's Jim Rome Show that McGregor has predicted he'll knock Mendes out in the second round. And he was willing to bet White and UFC CEO Lorenzo Fertitta $3 million that this would be the case.

"You want to know how confident this kid is?" White asked. "I can't even believe I'm going to say this, but, he told Lorenzo and I the other day ‘I'll bet you $3 million I knock him out in the second round.'"

The UFC boss isn't likely to take McGregor up on the proposition, given their promoter/fighter relationship. But to White, it underscores the charisma which has made McGregor a breakthrough star.

"I like to bet, I don't know if I'm that willing to take that bet," White said. "When I tell you how extremely confident this guy is in himself, it's fascinating. He is a very unique, fascinating person to listen to. Fun to listen to, and fun to watch."

Remember when Aldo hit Mendes with a combo at the end of round 1 in their 2nd fight and chad was out of it if he wasn't saved by the bell, we'll Mcgregor is a lot bigger than chad I expect to see him make it rain on Mendes with those 1-2 combos. This a Joanna vs Carla fight version 2.0

On July 07 2015 22:22 jvilla777 wrote: Remember when Aldo hit Mendes with a combo at the end of round 1 in their 2nd fight and chad was out of it if he wasn't saved by the bell, we'll Mcgregor is a lot bigger than chad I expect to see him make it rain on Mendes with those 1-2 combos. This a Joanna vs Carla fight version 2.0

McGregor can beat Mendes, but your comparison of McGregor/Mendes and Joanna/Carla is laughable.

It's clear that you're a fanboy, but settle down a bit, will ya?

On July 07 2015 21:42 PuertoRican wrote: Dana White: Conor McGregor offered to bet us $3 million he'd knock out Chad Mendes Dana White said on Tuesday's Jim Rome Show that McGregor has predicted he'll knock Mendes out in the second round. And he was willing to bet White and UFC CEO Lorenzo Fertitta $3 million that this would be the case. "You want to know how confident this kid is?" White asked. "I can't even believe I'm going to say this, but, he told Lorenzo and I the other day ‘I'll bet you $3 million I knock him out in the second round.'" The UFC boss isn't likely to take McGregor up on the proposition, given their promoter/fighter relationship. But to White, it underscores the charisma which has made McGregor a breakthrough star. "I like to bet, I don't know if I'm that willing to take that bet," White said. "When I tell you how extremely confident this guy is in himself, it's fascinating. He is a very unique, fascinating person to listen to. Fun to listen to, and fun to watch."

lol wolf tickets. dana is just the worst. less credibility than don king at this point.

Conor already looking like aids 5 days before the weigh ins. he's at the age where he is growing so the cut must be getting tougher and tougher. hope he makes the weight ok and doesn't pass out or some shit. gotta think it'll effect him if it ends up being a grueling fight.

On July 07 2015 22:43 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On July 07 2015 22:22 jvilla777 wrote: Remember when Aldo hit Mendes with a combo at the end of round 1 in their 2nd fight and chad was out of it if he wasn't saved by the bell, we'll Mcgregor is a lot bigger than chad I expect to see him make it rain on Mendes with those 1-2 combos. This a Joanna vs Carla fight version 2.0 McGregor can beat Mendes, but your comparison of McGregor/Mendes and Joanna/Carla is laughable. It's clear that you're a fanboy, but settle down a bit, will ya?

IMO there is no fight that one can say with assurance is directly comparable in a applicable way to Mendes v McGregor.

There are too many unknown variables and they are both too unique already.

That's what makes this fight special, among a million other things. The amount the UFC stands to gain/lose from their desired outcome is almost assuredly in the hundreds of millions when you consider the future possibilities with Conor as a transcendent figure who both draws PPV's and brings in a mainstream contingent.

I'm NOT a Conor nut-hugger (his personality has already grown old on me TBH) but I AM a fan for 2 reasons:

A) He is MMA's best chance to become more popular and that benefits fans, and the fighters prospects of making real money

B) Who doesn't want to witness greatness? His striking ability is truly amazing to watch and if my eyes aren't deceiving me, he has the potential to be one of the GOATS. I truly believe that. I also know and recognize that there is a large chance that he isn't actually that guy and he gets beaten badly by the Elite and isn't better than a very good MMA fighter, but how is that any fun? You gotta keep raising the bar. As good as Mendes, Aldo, Edgar are, their levels of greatness are known commodities. I just think if you fail to recognize how good this guy MIGHT be, you are robbing yourself of an added layer to this fight.

On July 08 2015 00:24 soberstone wrote: IMO there is no fight that one can say with assurance is directly comparable in a applicable way to Mendes v McGregor. There are too many unknown variables and they are both too unique already. That's what makes this fight special, among a million other things. The amount the UFC stands to gain/lose from their desired outcome is almost assuredly in the hundreds of millions when you consider the future possibilities with Conor as a transcendent figure who both draws PPV's and brings in a mainstream contingent. I'm NOT a Conor nut-hugger (his personality has already grown old on me TBH) but I AM a fan for 2 reasons: A) He is MMA's best chance to become more popular and that benefits fans, and the fighters prospects of making real money B) Who doesn't want to witness greatness? His striking ability is truly amazing to watch and if my eyes aren't deceiving me, he has the potential to be one of the GOATS. I truly believe that. I also know and recognize that there is a large chance that he isn't actually that guy and he gets beaten badly by the Elite and isn't better than a very good MMA fighter, but how is that any fun? You gotta keep raising the bar. As good as Mendes, Aldo, Edgar are, their levels of greatness are known commodities. I just think if you fail to recognize how good this guy MIGHT be, you are robbing yourself of an added layer to this fight.

This.

And plus I like all beefs in fights, I hate seeing all this "I'm friends with him and well fight it's just competition and constant hand shaking and hugging during weigh ins and during the fight" I like seeing fights with some real emotions and Conor IMO makes it much more entertaining in every way

On July 08 2015 00:24 soberstone wrote: IMO there is no fight that one can say with assurance is directly comparable in a applicable way to Mendes v McGregor. There are too many unknown variables and they are both too unique already. That's what makes this fight special, among a million other things. The amount the UFC stands to gain/lose from their desired outcome is almost assuredly in the hundreds of millions when you consider the future possibilities with Conor as a transcendent figure who both draws PPV's and brings in a mainstream contingent. I'm NOT a Conor nut-hugger (his personality has already grown old on me TBH) but I AM a fan for 2 reasons: A) He is MMA's best chance to become more popular and that benefits fans, and the fighters prospects of making real money B) Who doesn't want to witness greatness? His striking ability is truly amazing to watch and if my eyes aren't deceiving me, he has the potential to be one of the GOATS. I truly believe that. I also know and recognize that there is a large chance that he isn't actually that guy and he gets beaten badly by the Elite and isn't better than a very good MMA fighter, but how is that any fun? You gotta keep raising the bar. As good as Mendes, Aldo, Edgar are, their levels of greatness are known commodities. I just think if you fail to recognize how good this guy MIGHT be, you are robbing yourself of an added layer to this fight.

I don't particularly think any one superstar helps fighters make more money. The UFC treats their stars well and the rest like shit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=988&v=O0_fwyjvVRY

These guys have the most unbiased and heavy sort of breakdown's that you're gonna find. Definitely not for the casual, but awesome for the hardcore.

This card takes place tomorrow in Las Vegas. It's part of UFC Fight Week, which starts with Invicta FC on Thursday, UFC 189 on Saturday, and then TUF 21 Finale on Sunday.

Naz, haven't heard a peep out of you about the fights, who you got ?

I have $375 on Rory at -150 and $540 on Thatch at -180. Happy with both the lines are similar or a little worse. As much as I think Robbie Lawler is awesome I just don't think he has a well rounded enough skillset for a fighter like Macdonald. Their first fight I thought Macdonald was a lot better than him already and he's gone through more improvement as well. The issue was cardio and I don't think that will play a role this time. Thatch is just a monster and Nelson is overrated for 170 as he is just too small to compete. It's similar to the Henderson fight where Thatch is just going to outsize him by so much.

As for the main event I'm just going to sit back and enjoy. No clue

Aaaand I just bruised a rib so yeah I'm glad Aldo withdrew from the fight, he would've gotten crushed no doubt about it

Woot just got into Vegas, definitely gonna hit weigh-ins tomorrow, hopefully come up on some poker tonight.

On July 10 2015 00:35 soberstone wrote: Woot just got into Vegas, definitely gonna hit weigh-ins tomorrow, hopefully come up on some poker tonight.

Invicta FC starts at 8pm PST in Las Vegas. Tickets are probably inexpensive at this point.


$100 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/44613...sy-mma-mendes-vs-mcgregor-711-T-free/

On July 09 2015 09:57 Nazgul wrote: I have $375 on Rory at -150 and $540 on Thatch at -180. Happy with both the lines are similar or a little worse. As much as I think Robbie Lawler is awesome I just don't think he has a well rounded enough skillset for a fighter like Macdonald. Their first fight I thought Macdonald was a lot better than him already and he's gone through more improvement as well. The issue was cardio and I don't think that will play a role this time. Thatch is just a monster and Nelson is overrated for 170 as he is just too small to compete. It's similar to the Henderson fight where Thatch is just going to outsize him by so much. As for the main event I'm just going to sit back and enjoy. No clue

I think Nelson is overrated too, but Thatch although aggressive seems a little too wild to me to want to lay a big bet on him

Invicta just started: http://firstrowus1.eu/watch/355531/1/watch-invicta-fc-13.html


Cristiane "Cyborg" Justino vs. Faith Van Duin (Featherweight Championship)
Tonya Evinger vs. Irene Aldana (Bantamweight Championship)
Herica Tiburcio vs. Ayaka Hamasaki (Atomweight Championship)
Pannie Kianzad vs. Jessica-Rose Clark
Amber Brown vs. Catherine Costigan
Amy Montenegro vs. Jamie Moyle
Marina Shafir vs. Amber Leibrock

On July 09 2015 23:39 PuertoRican wrote:

Awesome stuff here. Love these nuanced break-downs.

Wow. I guess I'm playing psychologist here but that was way too easy to get into Mendes's head. He looked genuinely pissed at the conference. Does noone learn?

Getting in the head of someone is usually vastly overrated. Only time it matters is if the other fighter is a complete tard. Plenty of people got in GSPs head and pissed him off.

I don't think Mendes is gonna veer from his game plan because of trash talk.