UFC 189: McGregor vs. Mendes - Page 2

On June 30 2015 08:22 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On June 30 2015 08:08 TimDawg wrote:   On June 29 2015 21:37 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:   On June 29 2015 10:43 TimDawg wrote: I actually bet on Aldo back in January of this year when he was -190 Did same except at -160. Oops. Not even confident anymore and wouldn't put the bet on at the same odds if it was now or never yeah it does seem a bit closer than -190 for sure and probably even -160, even if Aldo was healthy I did the opposite because I'm an idiot sports degen and made another bet on Aldo at +110 Tim, where do you bet at? Aldo has been +130 at 5dimes and Bookmaker for awhile. The public is supposed to know by tomorrow (Tuesday) if Aldo will fight or not.

on Bovada...I should be looking at other sites for the better lines but I'm just lazy and only bet Bovada really

So far have a bet on Jeremy Stephens at + 195 ( you can still find that line at betsafe/betsson ), I feel it is great value.
Two bets on Aldo that I am already losing money on.
I'll bet Howard probably after weigh in. If I can find Lawler at over + 170 I will slap a bet on him as well.
Also I am thinking about betting on Gunnar Nelson. I feel this is a pick em fight, and at + 150 there is value in him.

Guilherme Cruz: I’m told Jose Aldo will not train today. Official call apparently pushed back to Friday.

Dana White on SportsCenter just now: Aldo's head coach, Andre P., said Aldo's rib hurts too bad and he won't fight Conor McGregor at UFC 189. Chad Mendes will fight McGregor for the interim title.

3 units on "Chad Mendes fights Conor McGregor at UFC 189" +217 = CASHED!

Mendes Mcgregor official.

I'm happy.

They can start building it now and not have a shadow over the fight by the time it happens.

Still extremely intriguing, still big on Conor.

I think Edgar is the only guy who I'd favor over him in the division.

On July 01 2015 00:19 PuertoRican wrote: Dana White on SportsCenter just now: Aldo's head coach, Andre P., said Aldo's rib hurts too bad and he won't fight Conor McGregor at UFC 189. Chad Mendes will fight McGregor for the interim title. 3 units on "Chad Mendes fights Conor McGregor at UFC 189" +217 = CASHED!

Nice bet haha

2 Minutes after the news broke and the lines are frozen on all the sites. McGregor supposed to be +110 right now on Maker.

I'm very confident in this matchup for McGregor. Mendes maybe wins a decision, but I doubt he can ever get to McGregor on the feet due to the size discrepancy and fluidity of striking movement.

Also 2-week notice for a guy who's cardio is definitely not the best, he will be at a big disadvantage there.

I predict a third round ko for McGregor.

I had mixed feelings on Aldo because I made 30 DraftKings teams yesterday that covered a lot of different variables. Now that Aldo is out, DK will either add Mendes in place of Aldo, or not include Mendes as one of the picks like they have always done. This time is different though, as they have never had 11+ days to decide whether or not to add a fighter. When someone pulls out, we're already in fight-week with a few days to go, and they never replace the fighter. Not sure what they'll do now.

If Mendes doesn't get added to the DK lineup, I'll just delete all my teams with Aldo and keep my McGregor teams. Mendes presents different problems, so I have to keep that in mind. Dennis Siver got 2 take downs on McGregor, iirc.

On July 01 2015 00:52 PuertoRican wrote: I had mixed feelings on Aldo because I made 30 DraftKings teams yesterday that covered a lot of different variables. Now that Aldo is out, DK will either add Mendes in place of Aldo, or not include Mendes as one of the picks like they have always done. This time is different though, as they have never had 11+ days to decide whether or not to add a fighter. When someone pulls out, we're already in fight-week with a few days to go, and they never replace the fighter. Not sure what they'll do now. If Mendes doesn't get added to the DK lineup, I'll just delete all my teams with Aldo and keep my McGregor teams. Mendes presents different problems, so I have to keep that in mind. Dennis Siver got 2 take downs on McGregor, iirc.

They weren't officially scored as takedowns as McGregor was up before he was ever fully down both times, but they were close. I just don't see Mendes doing that for 5-rounds straight without running into problems, and I personally believe Conor will be just fine off his back.

I just bet 20 bucks on Mendes at +115, weird cause Mendes is the favorite in most sites.

Also brad picket at +500 seems a little exagerated to me...

Lines just opened up on Maker, McGregor at +120 - took him for $100.

I want to get the same size bet on the KO prop but its not open.

On July 01 2015 01:12 soberstone wrote: Lines just opened up on Maker, McGregor at +120 - took him for $100. I want to get the same size bet on the KO prop but its not open.

Not sure what I cap the Conor/Chad line at yet. I'll figure it out by the end of the week.

This guy on Sherdog mentioned to take the ITD line:

"play a itd line if you plan on going heavy on anything, considering how wild mendes is on the feet. he wasn't fighting intelligent for the most part against aldo, it was more biting down on his mouthpiece and moving forward.

i think either mendes wears mcgregor down and gets a tko finish, or mendes is gonna get sniped with something on the feet and end up face down, i'm leaning towards the latter just because of the size disparity and advantage in terms of reach.

then again, looking at who conor has surrounded himself with training for aldo (now mendes) didn't exactly impress when it was aldo, and it's even worse now that he gets mendes instead."

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IMO, if this fight favors anyone, it's Mendes. He has the best wrestling in the featherweight division, while McGregor has never been tested by a real wrestler, and like I mentioned already, Dennis Siver was able to get him off his feet and onto the mat, even if it wasn't for that long. Mendes is always in the gym and stays in shape throughout the year, so I'm not worried about his cardio.

Will Mendes' wrestling be enough? Dunno, but he's active on the feet, so he might overwhelm McGregor like that other guy mentioned, or get countered by McGregor as he comes in.

IMO: Comes Down to the Following:

If you subscribe to the notion that the likely situation is that McGregor's grappling is even close to as bad as it was when he was younger, than you have to think the likely outcomes is that he will get exposed easily by Mendes to the point where he can big brother him for prolonged periods of the fight and pickup a decision or tko via GnP or maybe even pull off a choke.

However, If you think the likely situation is that McGregor's grappling is probably good enough to do the trick and that Mendes will be able to get some takedowns early, not do much with them, and will find himself on the feet with McGregor for the majority of the fight then you gotta go McGregor.

The fact that McGregor didn't hesitate to fight Mendes on 2 weeks notice, grapples larger Elite grapplers like Gunnar Nelson on a daily basis, along with the straight up fact that he's a special athlete that hasn't shown any wrestling weakness in a long time leads me to believe he's perfectly capable of grappling at a high if not elite level.

Not to mention, do people not think that the UFC - Joe Silva and company - don't know the real story about McGregor's grappling and ground game at this point? Because they wouldn't have made this fight, again in my speculative opinion, if they hadn't heard rave reviews from as unbiased of sources as possible.

The latter scenario - my vision of the fight - sees this turn into the same type of fight that it did with Aldo after round 2-3 if it gets that far, and at that point, it's 100 percent McGregor in my mind. His ability to pick apart a wild and vastly outsized but Elite brawler in Mendes again coming in on short notice - and yes that does matter, perhaps less so for Mendes than other fighters, but it would be ridiculous not to try and account for that on some level - should be fairly elementary and I expect him to make it look easy at that point.

Or he clips Mendes early and the fight is a quick KO, and with Conor's use of distance and his size, I doubt the opposite happens.

Reasonable men can and will disagree on this fight, but those are my thoughts :D

Regarding Conor's BJJ, I wouldn't be worried about it one bit if I were betting on Chad. Forget the word "grappling," and focus on BJJ and wrestling. Chad clearly has the wrestling advantage, and I don't think Conor's BJJ is dangerous enough to submit Chad while Chad is on top.

I see this fight taking place solely on the feet, unless Chad gets the take down.

Rebok unveiling was pretty terrible, I watched 3 minutes for comedic purposed - shirt he is wearing is atrocious and I'm no fashionista.

On July 01 2015 02:45 PuertoRican wrote: Regarding Conor's BJJ, I wouldn't be worried about it one bit if I were betting on Chad. Forget the word "grappling," and focus on BJJ and wrestling. Chad clearly has the wrestling advantage, and I don't think Conor's BJJ is dangerous enough to submit Chad while Chad is on top. I see this fight taking place solely on the feet, unless Chad gets the take down.

Disagree.

The defensive BJJ of Conor is extremely important because if Conor gets taken down but can maintain guard, get up off his back quickly and safely, and avoid GnP and submissions all while doing so (yes, that would be very BJJ dependent) than he can still win the fight even with a disadvantage in wrestling. No doubt about it, he doesn't want to get taken down, but it may not be the end of the world if he does.

I agree, Chad's base on top will negate any offensive BJJ from Conor, but his guard and separation skills on the mat will be very important.... you make it sound like if Chad can get takedowns he will automatically win, and I don't think that is necessarily correct, he needs to be able to hold him down and inflict punishment too.

I am using the term grappling for a reason. I'm trying to encompass all the areas that might matter (offensive and defensive wrestling, 50/50 scrambles on that mat, BJJ, etc.) and Chad's wrestling advantage is certainly a huge component to anyone who isn't retarded, but to me it isn't in itself enough to win this fight.

guys which site do you use to bet? I dont usually bet on sports but im shipping it on mcgreggor

"Giblert"



"Marcio" Lyoto Machida



Jacare "Ronaldo" Souza



These uniforms have each fighters flag on the arm of their shirt. It lists Benson Henderson as Korean, even though he's a half African American / half Korean American man who was born in Colorado, lives in Phoenix, and has lived in the US his entire life. Benson said via Twitter that if he could change something about the uniforms, he would change the flag on his shirt to a "blend of RED, WHITE & BLUE flags."

On July 01 2015 04:05 flounder44 wrote: guys which site do you use to bet? I dont usually bet on sports but im shipping it on mcgreggor

Some of us use 5dimes, some of us use Bookmaker, and some of us use both. There's a ton of other books to choose from, but 5dimes and Bookmaker are the two largest books, especially for Americans.

Well I guess that is a good fight as well. I believe the UFC had really no other choice but to put together a fight for the interim belt with Conor getting the top billing, given the amount of money they pumped into this event.

Conor is supposed to be in better shape than Mendes who is coming into this fight on less than 3 weeks notice. However looking at the match up, this is a terrible match up for McGregor .While Conor has a big edge in the stand up, the threat of the takedown I believe will make things a lot more even than people are anticipating. Mendes is no longer the blanket fighter he used to be years ago. He has big power and speed in his punches and Conor is very hittable. If we add to that his big grappling advantage ( again there is a big question mark here for McGregor ) I see Chad as the favorite in this match up.

The lines will probably move a lot in Conor's favor. I will not be suprised if Mendes is like +150/200 at fight night. I will be all over that.

On July 01 2015 03:51 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On July 01 2015 02:45 PuertoRican wrote: Regarding Conor's BJJ, I wouldn't be worried about it one bit if I were betting on Chad. Forget the word "grappling," and focus on BJJ and wrestling. Chad clearly has the wrestling advantage, and I don't think Conor's BJJ is dangerous enough to submit Chad while Chad is on top. I see this fight taking place solely on the feet, unless Chad gets the take down. Disagree. The defensive BJJ of Conor is extremely important because if Conor gets taken down but can maintain guard, get up off his back quickly and safely, and avoid GnP and submissions all while doing so (yes, that would be very BJJ dependent) than he can still win the fight even with a disadvantage in wrestling. No doubt about it, he doesn't want to get taken down, but it may not be the end of the world if he does. I agree, Chad's base on top will negate any offensive BJJ from Conor, but his guard and separation skills on the mat will be very important.... you make it sound like if Chad can get takedowns he will automatically win, and I don't think that is necessarily correct, he needs to be able to hold him down and inflict punishment too. I am using the term grappling for a reason. I'm trying to encompass all the areas that might matter (offensive and defensive wrestling, 50/50 scrambles on that mat, BJJ, etc.) and Chad's wrestling advantage is certainly a huge component to anyone who isn't retarded, but to me it isn't in itself enough to win this fight.

I would agree with this but you definitely win fights on takedowns alone. In Condit vs Henderson Henderson pretty much got his ass whooped but he dipped Condit like 12+ times. He always got up and didn't take much damage but for some reason takedown are worth hella points.

I've been in a number of street fights where scoring doesn't matter just hurting the other guy. Takedowns themselves pretty much count for nothing it is what you do with the takedown imo