PuertoRican United States. Jul 03 2015 00:33. Posts 13051
Rekrul is a newb
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soberstone United States. Jul 03 2015 04:14. Posts 2662
Added another bet on the Means Brown under as it moved 10 points and I like the under.
Put $40 on the Almeida Picket under 1.5 rds at +130. I don't understand how this is at + money when Almeida is a -750 favorite and the way he will presumably win is by knocking an aging picket out easily and likely early.
Need to also look Almeida's takedown defense because the only part of Picket's game that I think is underrated is his wrestling so if I could get him by decision at +1000ish would be fairly attractive if Almeida has unproven TDD.
Last edit: 03/07/2015 04:14
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 03 2015 05:44. Posts 13051
On July 03 2015 03:14 soberstone wrote:
Added another bet on the Means Brown under as it moved 10 points and I like the under.
Put $40 on the Almeida Picket under 1.5 rds at +130. I don't understand how this is at + money when Almeida is a -750 favorite and the way he will presumably win is by knocking an aging picket out easily and likely early.
Need to also look Almeida's takedown defense because the only part of Picket's game that I think is underrated is his wrestling so if I could get him by decision at +1000ish would be fairly attractive if Almeida has unproven TDD.
You could easily lose both bets. Pickett is old and has taken a lot of punishment over the years, but he hasn't been knocked out against any of the killers he has faced. He has only been TKO'ed once, and that was 10.5 years ago. If he eats a lot of shots and won't go down, the over will hit and he'll lose a decision.
I expect Almeida to win, but Pickett does have a good chin and the better take downs. He has power too, but he brawls too much, so it's hard for him to land a lot of clean shots against the top 10 fighters.
Another thing to remember is that they're fighting in a big cage, and this is do-or-die for Pickett, so he probably won't want to brawl with a much younger, more accurate striker, and better finisher than him who is most deadly in round 1.
Almeida isn't afraid to trade shots, so that's something to take note of. I wouldn't be surprised if Pickett tries to wrestle in round 1.
When Mendes puts McGregor on the mat and pounds him for 5 rounds the 3rd fight with Aldo will be a tough sell for the UFC. Make no mistake they are gameplanning wrestlefuck for this fight and Conor will be on his back and getting smashed throughout.
On July 02 2015 08:17 Baalim wrote:
why in the fuck would he fake an injury to get out of the biggest fight in his career after the UFC spent millions promoting it?
Dana is clearly at the brink of a heartattack since Mendez might derail his money train, obviously this is a legit injury
On July 03 2015 03:14 soberstone wrote:
Added another bet on the Means Brown under as it moved 10 points and I like the under.
Put $40 on the Almeida Picket under 1.5 rds at +130. I don't understand how this is at + money when Almeida is a -750 favorite and the way he will presumably win is by knocking an aging picket out easily and likely early.
Need to also look Almeida's takedown defense because the only part of Picket's game that I think is underrated is his wrestling so if I could get him by decision at +1000ish would be fairly attractive if Almeida has unproven TDD.
You could easily lose both bets. Pickett is old and has taken a lot of punishment over the years, but he hasn't been knocked out against any of the killers he has faced. He has only been TKO'ed once, and that was 10.5 years ago. If he eats a lot of shots and won't go down, the over will hit and he'll lose a decision.
I expect Almeida to win, but Pickett does have a good chin and the better take downs. He has power too, but he brawls too much, so it's hard for him to land a lot of clean shots against the top 10 fighters.
Another thing to remember is that they're fighting in a big cage, and this is do-or-die for Pickett, so he probably won't want to brawl with a much younger, more accurate striker, and better finisher than him who is most deadly in round 1.
Almeida isn't afraid to trade shots, so that's something to take note of. I wouldn't be surprised if Pickett tries to wrestle in round 1.
Yes, fully aware I could easily lose a +130 bet.
What killer's are you talking about? In my opinion, he's fought 3 'killers' in recent memory, and the results were:
Michael McDonald (got 10-8'd and then finished at the beginning of round 2)
Renan Barao (finished in the first round round in similar fashion)
Eddie Wineland (lost a decision where he got dropped multiple times IIRC).
Picket is older now and this Almeida kid looks a lot more dangerous than Wineland and similar to the other two.
Last edit: 03/07/2015 18:36
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soberstone United States. Jul 03 2015 18:41. Posts 2662
On July 03 2015 17:27 PuertoRican wrote:
Listening to MMA Road Show - Big cage for the next 7 events.
Big cage for UFC 189 and TUF finale and all the way up to Aug 8th UFC Fight Night 73.
So that's big cages for Fight Night 71, 72, Fox 16, UFC 190, 73.
Good to know, ty, don't have to worry about the small cage manipulating odds.
PuertoRican United States. Jul 04 2015 00:22. Posts 13051
On July 03 2015 23:19 Spitfiree wrote:
soo Mendes is an easy bet at +130 i guess?
Dunno, depends on the bettor.
I still haven't decided who to bet on, or how I'll bet it. As soon as the prop lines are released on Bookmaker, I'll have an idea. Props won't be released on BM until Thursday at the earliest, so I'm not even thinking about the fight yet.
soberstone United States. Jul 04 2015 00:27. Posts 2662
On July 03 2015 23:24 northsails wrote:
I very much like Mendes by KO/TKO at + 600.
I think that's a good bet as well. If Mendes ITD was around the same, I'd really like the line (I could see a RNC possibility) - but it's not. I think him winning ITD is far more likely than him winning a decision.
If "Fight doesn't go to decision" stays at -260 I will throw 5 units on that or parlay it with another line I like. I absolutely love that line. This fight ends within 5 rounds 8 or 9/10 times IMO. I also think it's a better bet than the under 2.5 at -105 because a lot of the finishing scenarios are equally or more plausible in the later rounds.
Also Picket by KO at +2000 is a solid bet. I think a KO with Picket landing a winging hook or uppercut while getting battered is just as likely as him winning a decision at +1200. Almeida throws way to much volume and I highly doubt Picket can wrestle 2 rounds away.
Just wish Bookmaker would release the damn props.
It's too big of a damn card to waste all that potential money letting 5dimes and Sportbet take all the early juice, wtf.
Edit: Fuckit, started a 5-dimes account with a couple hundred dollars on it. Gonna bet some props.
Last edit: 04/07/2015 00:54
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soberstone United States. Jul 04 2015 01:05. Posts 2662
Rofl, Reebok selling a Conor McGregor championship 'jersey' or whatever this garbage is, and he's not even in a real championship fight. Hilarious.
PuertoRican United States. Jul 04 2015 01:14. Posts 13051
On July 04 2015 00:05 soberstone wrote:
Rofl, Reebok selling a Conor McGregor championship 'jersey' or whatever this garbage is, and he's not even in a real championship fight. Hilarious.
On July 04 2015 00:05 soberstone wrote:
Rofl, Reebok selling a Conor McGregor championship 'jersey' or whatever this garbage is, and he's not even in a real championship fight. Hilarious.
The Pickett jersey could be so much better if they gave it a little individuality. Brad "1-Punch" Pickett with some old school Irish boxing looking guy or something not completely lame and unoriginal, I dunno.
The uniforms can still be 'uniform' in nature and still do something special for each fighter, it's not that much to ask each fighter to just send in something they want that is unique to them and cool, approve it, and do it. Fine, not every fighter out of 600, but how about once you've had 3 UFC fights. Now it's 200 or something very reasonable.
If they did this kind of thing for every fighter, it would sell more shit, be cooler, help market the fighters, and not be total overpriced shit.
Instead we get this. They've probably sold under 100 'kits'. Hopefully it'll make them either give up or do a hell of a lot better when none of this shit sells. And if it does sell, fuck the world.
Last edit: 04/07/2015 20:57
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 04 2015 23:11. Posts 13051
Props are up on BM for the two title fights. I have Lawler KO/TKO/DQ +500 for 1 unit. Gonna lay a big bet on his money line, just trying to figure out how the line will move. Both guys always look the same during the weigh-ins, so no new information will be gained from seeing them on the scale.
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