Forex?

pretty sure it's extremely improbable to be +ev

On February 20 2013 10:54 Highcard wrote: 100% sure it's extremely improbable to be +ev

FYP

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you would have a better time cutting up $1 bills and trying to tape them back together.

I don't know why google is failing you on this, there are forums dedicated to forex

In fact, if you cut up the $1 bills, tape 100% of the bill together but in a picasso like abstract you might even be able to sell the $1 for more than the cost of the tape.

That my friend, is how you make money.

depending on market id imagine you would get a lot of slippage

oh god

Just do your research on various brokers and pick a reputable one that you are comfortable with. Forex is highly liquid so spread/slippage are not something you really need to worry about if you're trading small size and entering trades only when you've identified fresh order flow (which can generate +ev trading scenarios). Another point to note is that brokers will widen their spreads during news spikes. From my experience traders who complain too much about spread aren't using limit orders enough. Using limit orders when there's no immediacy to enter a trade makes it so you're never getting filled at a price you aren't willing to pay (at the risk of not getting filled). It's a simple concept but most traders think like this "I have to be in this trade because if I'm not aggressive I'll miss out" instead of "I don't mind missing out on a trade if I can't get filled at favorable price so that my risk/reward is most optimal."

Anyways just pick a broker where you can be confident that your funds are safe and won't get screwed by their operational practices. The most important thing though is to improve your trading skillset because these skills never go away, are transferable to other markets, and you can always switch brokers later if you need to.

its like 24/7 poker. havent really tried it yet but for sure its not for my personality. (i cant sleep knowing markets are trading lol) pretty sure some have made lots of money from it but its going to take a lot of tears.
+1 on TA for this

I'm really diggin the responses to this blog (rofl) (sorry 2c0ntent).

I am thinking about getting on that abstract art hustle.

Check out tradimo.com

It's pokerstrategy.com's sister site on trading

dont do it

you cant win unless u the one rigging markets

Shit did I miss the post where you conquered options already? Currency should be a walk in the park.

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You are right that many arbitrage strategies already exist in regards to taking advantage of the ETF mispricing inefficiencies you are talking about (most of which are automated). However, it doesn't mean that the idea is obsolete. What it does mean is that whoever is automating the strategy has an advantage in speed, routing, execution, all that good stuff. They will have an edge over you most of the time when the instruments involved are acting relatively rational and the movements are methodical (or put in another way when there's no panic or euphoria). In these periods of time, calculated models and automated strategies work well because their risk parameters are never violated so they can comfortably grind.

So for the strategy you are considering as well as most discretionary strategies (and I'm assuming you're going to attempt to do this manually), the question to answer is "what's the best way to execute on my idea?" given the information I just told you. I'll give you some time to ponder and I'll put my thoughts in a spoiler.

+ Show Spoiler +

On February 23 2013 22:24 Spicy wrote: You are right that many arbitrage strategies already exist in regards to taking advantage of the ETF mispricing inefficiencies you are talking about (most of which are automated). However, it doesn't mean that the idea is obsolete. What it does mean is that whoever is automating the strategy has an advantage in speed, routing, execution, all that good stuff. They will have an edge over you most of the time when the instruments involved are acting relatively rational and the movements are methodical (or put in another way when there's no panic or euphoria). In these periods of time, calculated models and automated strategies work well because their risk parameters are never violated so they can comfortably grind. So for the strategy you are considering as well as most discretionary strategies (and I'm assuming you're going to attempt to do this manually), the question to answer is "what's the best way to execute on my idea?" given the information I just told you. I'll give you some time to ponder and I'll put my thoughts in a spoiler. + Show Spoiler + The best time to execute most strategies is after something causes irrationality in the markets (referred to commonly as a catalyst), whether it be news driven, market manipulation, George Soros breaking the Bank of England, etc. Something completely unexpected that throws financial models out of whack and everyone to start questioning their risk models. Large levered positions are getting unwinded and automated strategies can't operate profitably because they can't deal with irrationality. The scope of the catalyst is important too in assessing the mispricing potential. A full blown crisis obviously has more opportunities than an unexpected announcement of an interest rate change. So in regards to the strategy you brought up specifically, the first thing to note is the fact that different traders use the ETF and the currency pairs for different purposes. Therefore, it's impossible for them to have identical order flow which leads to the potential for mispricing. In normal times, automated strategies can quickly arbitrage away the dis-proportionality in the order flow, but in irrational times, the last thing you want to do is offer free unlimited liquidity to people spastically unwinding positions when you don't know how much size they are working with and you can't measure how crazy they will cause the mispricing to be. Imagine a poker game where stacks are theoretically infinitely deep and the risk/reward of your strategy is unknowable. So what they will do is wait until the mispricing becomes attractive enough to start scaling back in to the arbitrage. This is your timing window. Anyway, as you might guess I'm not a quant who attempts to use pricing models. There are tons of ways to make money in the market. The most important thing though IMO is to understand the important players, why they make decisions in certain market conditions, how they will affect ORDER FLOW (caps because so important), and how your strategy fits in. Then formulate a game plan and figure out the best way to execute. So you understand any bias in my analysis, my trading experience is with tape reading, technical analysis, and global macro. Disclosure: Most of my knowledge is a result of compiling everything I've learned from other successful traders who utilize various strategies and have made ludicrous amounts of money that makes me so jelly. I haven't been personally trading long enough to generate meaningful results (although I'm pretty much attempting to trade full time right now). If/when I do start making millions, you can expect an awesome blog post from me.

I don't know anything about trading but gl.

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inventory imbalance is what I look for

USD will be going to around 120 within the decade
AUS will be going way down, and my possibly cease to exist within the decade