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Emi   France. Dec 21 2007 22:34. Posts 280

Very good article

hello world 

locoo   Peru. Dec 22 2007 00:40. Posts 4538

Great read Beast

bitte bitte bitte bitte bitte bitte 

SakiSaki    Sweden. Dec 22 2007 01:36. Posts 9685

sick sick sick article

what wackass site is this nigga?  

Silver_nz   New Zealand. Dec 22 2007 02:05. Posts 5638

as to your challenge beast, something like this?

Submitted by : Silver_nz

PokerStars Game #14020077544: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2007/12/22 - 03:57:14 (ET)
Table 'Melanie' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: BadBrain82 ($14.55 in chips)
Seat 2: dgenski ($19.10 in chips)
Seat 3: Berg75 ($24 in chips)
Seat 4: evantair ($27.10 in chips)
Seat 5: hardi389boy1 ($22.15 in chips)
hardi389boy1: posts small blind $0.10
BadBrain82: posts big blind $0.25

Dealt to evantair 6s6h
dgenski: raises $0.75 to $1
Berg75: folds
evantair : calls $1
hardi389boy1: folds
BadBrain82: folds

degenski open raises 10% of hands, so 66 pretty marginally beats his range

Flop (Pot : $2.35)

dgenski: bets $1.25
evantair : calls $1.25

driest flop in the world, nothing had changed from preflop i still figure to be marginally ahead of his range

Turn (Pot : $4.85)

EdgarK has returned
dgenski: bets $3

another blank, I expect him to continue betting is whole range as hes an over aggro donk

evantair : raises $4.25 to $7.25

min rasie turn as a semibluff in pos to get a free showdown

dgenski: calls $4.25

River (Pot : $19.35)

dgenski: checks

Silver_nz   New Zealand. Dec 22 2007 02:07. Posts 5638

oh and how about writing about common leaks and how to exploit them ^^

MYM.Testie   Canada. Dec 22 2007 02:33. Posts 32

The fact that I am confused means he did a good job and I learned nothing because I'm confused and don't understand.
Doh. T_T

phexac   United States. Dec 22 2007 04:13. Posts 2563

I read through it and I actually have an issue with your point about bluffing frequency. I am not saying that it is incorrect--it is absolutely right, however I cannot see a practical application for that theory. There is simply no chance in hell that you are every going to have the type information you need to make these kinds of decisions in the way you describe.

Let's look at your example. You say:

"Let's say you are on the river and your opponent has checked. He's a decent player, but by now his hand is somewhat defined, while yours isn't. Looking at hand ranges, you are going to have his likely holding beat with 30% of your hands."

One of your solutions is:

"value bet half the pot with your 30% winning hands and also bluff with and additional 10% of your hands? From your opponent`s point of view the EV of his call is exactly zero."

This situation, while simple at first glance, is so convoluted and hypothetical that you can probably play for years and never run into even two which you can put into an analysis sample. Yes the math works out perfectly, but that's as far as it goes. First of all you are assuming a generic "decent" player without any personality traits, specific playing style, past history with you, or awareness of what has happened in the last few hands, who incidentally plays near perfect. Second you say, that you are going to have his likely holdings beat with 30% of your hands. This implies that this perfect situation you are describing will reoccur often enough to build a sizable sample, whereupon, you will be able (using your precognition I am assuming) pick out 1 of 7 of the hands that are behind his range to bet the same exact amount so that the math works out. Moreover, this situation is so perfect that which 1 in 7 of your losing hands you pick to bluff with does not matter.

This whole description reminds me of the econ courses I took, where the theories were all perfectly-structured, but so many of them were completely useless when you attempted to apply them to reality.

The whole process simply does not work the way you describe. Your decision whether or not to bluff is never based in such general terms. When have you ever found yourself actually thinking in the terms you describe? "Ok, so I am guessing here that I am ahead of his range and this situation is such that I will be ahead of his range 30% of the time. Ok, so to make the most of this I am going to bet 1/2 pot (or however much you decided was best, which amount you will base solely on the poker math behind the scenes) now and when this same situation comes up in the future, except that I am beat, I am going to randomly pick one in seven of them to bluff." Let's get serious.

Ok, you say, I am missing the point, this is used strictly for analysis of your game based on the history of your hands that you have already played. Fine, in that case, I challenge you find even TWO hands that you can put into the same category for this exercise, one hand where it's everything you said and you have the best hand, while the other hand is that same exact hand except that it's the inverse and you are behind the guy's range the remainder of the percentage of the time.

I am missing the point again, of course you can't be THAT precise with this. It's about the theory, so you have to make some allowances. But no, you can't do that. The math works out IF AND ONLY IF the numbers are precise and the situations are exactly identical. In the real world that does not happen. At the poker table in any given hand, you just have those 2 cards and they are either definitively ahead or definitely behind your opponent's range. If you think you are ahead, you try to extract value. If you don't you try to see a cheap showdown or fold. Your chance of a successful bluff is based upon a whole multitude of factors, including past long and recent history, the tendencies of the player, etc. etc. Even trying to group that hand into some category is an exercise in futility.

All that said, yes you can find out whether your bluffing too much, too little, or about right. But you do it by going back and analyzing your play hand by hand and looking where you went right or wrong, not by trying to employ some convoluted math exercise which completely disregards idiosyncrasies of each hand.

Please do not take this as a flame, as your article does give a lot of food for thought. I just strongly disagree with attempts to generalize real life situations into a synthetic mathematical model, right though that model may be in its own realm.

Nitting it up since 2006Last edit: 22/12/2007 04:15

Rhaegar    Bulgaria. Dec 22 2007 05:12. Posts 2586

I already said that when playing against inferior players, you just profit by their mistakes.
Believe me at higher levels, some players like Jman are highly conscious of their hand range at all times.

One very suspicious playerLast edit: 22/12/2007 05:34

Rhaegar    Bulgaria. Dec 22 2007 05:34. Posts 2586

"Ok, you say, I am missing the point, this is used strictly for analysis of your game based on the history of your hands that you have already played."
Not true. It's not history, its your hand range. For example, lets say I decide to raise 30% from the CO. The BB calls. Then I decide to bet some hands and to check some. This splits my range. Then on the turn my range gets even narrower and on the river there aren't that many hands that I can have. This is totally worthless for low and mistakes obv. Its used a ton in high stakes limit HU though.
And I do use it mostly to analyze hands and make up a game plan, not really while playing.

One very suspicious player 

k2o4   United States. Dec 22 2007 08:31. Posts 4803

great start, can't wait for more! 

n0rthf4ce    United States. Dec 23 2007 19:02. Posts 8119

In many situations, it is nearly impossible to apply these theories with perfect percentages. However, it is very important to be conscious of roughly what your range and your opponent's range is at all times. The more you think about this when you play, the more you will be able to a) more accurately assess ranges b) assess ranges quicker c) make the most profitable decision on a point-by-point basis. 

Sennpu   Canada. Dec 25 2007 10:23. Posts 1960

nice beast ;D

then she ask me my qualities n bad qualities. so i tell her truth and she kinda laugh at me lol. then i ask her for hers and she gtg. i think it going ok. -Floofy 

Oly   United Kingdom. Dec 25 2007 10:32. Posts 3571

This is bloody beautiful. Unlike other explanations of the fundamentals, this seems to be a picture of the foundations which can be almost forever applied up the levels.

Researchers used brain scans to show that when straight men looked at pictures of women in bikinis, areas of the brain that normally light up in anticipation of using tools, like spanners and screwdrivers, were activated. 

Rhaegar    Bulgaria. Jan 07 2008 14:47. Posts 2586

Lol, I've made a mistake at the calling down example. Our opponent must have us beat 44%+ on river, to make our turn call EV<=0. Not 33%.

One very suspicious player 

Catul   France. Jan 13 2008 21:04. Posts 1460

Splendid article.
I'm really looking forward to reading your next ones.

Sometimes nothing can be a real cool hand. 

Toshko_k   Bulgaria. Mar 06 2008 22:49. Posts 12

very good article....however Rhaegar is not by chance on of the best so i everibody can learn a lot from him.Thanks for that. Expect the next one.

Night[Mare]   Mexico. Jul 15 2008 15:19. Posts 599

i read half of the article because i sincerly dont get about how to read or the EV thing. It looks mathish but i would rather prefer somebody to tutor me a bit more specific, because even though i've played poker 2 hours daily for a month now, it's still hard for me to understand

dcsscd hijo de pinos 

deanda_alex   Mexico. Jul 10 2009 15:27. Posts 33

excelent article.. great read
and learning alot just from reading it .. cant wait to get it done =)


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