Game Play on Hero Poker: Things to Know Important - Page 4

lol, I've ask them to change that!

are all heads up sit n goes start the blinds at 25 / 50? i thought it was like 5 / 10 or 10 / 20

On May 10 2011 17:33 DvoBoardRider wrote: hey david, i stumbled a blog about the risks of playing at a poker site that still allows US players. http://www.quantitativepoker.com/2011...ot-to-play-optimal-game.html?spref=tw i was wondering what's your opinion on this. i was planning on putting some money on merge to play 200nl. thanks.

"For our example player here, we see that, under the default assumptions with 50% liquidity and an average site lifetime of 500 days, playing 100NL will be a better risk-adjusted value than 50NL, though it's close enough that the player should move down if he feels the liquidity risk is greater, or that the sites have a significantly shorter expected lifetime. To dissuade him from playing entirely, there would have to be either a very low probability of getting paid back if the site closed, or withdrawals while the site is still operating would have to be less than 50% likely to go through. So, for this winning player, it looks like playing on a remaining U.S.-facing website should be better than quitting entirely as long as he has at least some faith in the current market. Many less skilled players with thinner winrates will be forced out of the market entirely from these additional risks."

I can't find fault with the basic conclusion here:
I think there are 3 factors that will change the basic assumptions.
1. FTP & UB/AB paying out- which will open up player confidence and give a broader spectrum of players (although it could be counter argued that the initial flood of players will just accelerate the issue as most regs on the UB/AB were hard core grinders etc).
2. As a network, should Merge have enough player liquidity, they could start to enter into markets other than the US with fair success.
3. If PS and FT by next year (if it should get to that point), simply settle and are not found guilty (and that FTP and UB/AB have paid out as well).

Other than that, the model as it state, is a good assessment of the current environment.

Dave