Two and half months breakeven, advice needed !

Hey guys could really use some opinions here. I have been playing online poker on Pokerstars since end of 2006. I moved up pretty quick from 5nl to 50nl 6max, where I have stayed most of the time. In 2007 I was a marginal winner at 50nl with a 2ptbb/100 winrate and then some nice dude from LP sweated me for a couple of hrs in September last year and kind of changed my weaktite nitty mindset. My winrate improved and from then on I had a decent winrate. Not great but about 4.45ptbb/100 over almost 500k hands wich was a big improvement for me, and about 2.5ptbb/100 at 100nl wich is still marginal.
Aug. and Sept. I had 2 particulary good months and was playing 100nl regulary, and then beginning of October everything went downhill. It started with me cashing out a bunch of $$ for some urgent expenses, and I left myself with 1700$ to grind back from 50nl. I lost about 1100$ in 2 days with really sick coolers. Like really unreal, and I probably ended up tilting some too. All of a sudden my Bankroll was crippled and I had to move down to 25nl where I kept loosing. In the lowest point my BR reached 340$ and I eventualy managed to grind that back thru Double or nothing sng's and 25nl and brought my BR all the way upto 3600$, enough to play 100nl, then started hitting crazy variance again and again and lost like half of it. I'm certain that I'm running like shit, but I'm sure tilt has also made me spew big time. Anyways, really thanks for everybody who actualy read all this, and I would really appreciate some advice from u guys who went thru the same shit and how u where able to get back on track.

cliffnotes: Me whinning about 130k breakeven strech and asking for any advice.

below my 2008 graph and my PT stats jan-sep and oct-till now.

u don't want to see my graph, 10 months of break even

I think it's pretty much std variance, when you're a marginal winner, variance can make you breakeven for huge periods of time i guess (and i know what im talking about i think i'm breakeven on like 1 month and a half now).

why havent u moved up to 1-2

On December 09 2008 12:40 Sheitan wrote: I think it's pretty much std variance, when you're a marginal winner, variance can make you breakeven for huge periods of time i guess (and i know what im talking about i think i'm breakeven on like 1 month and a half now).

play with rakeback, it will reduce your pain

looks like teh only difference in stats is that your won at SD decreased from 51% to 48% while everything else stayed about teh same

-> u simply run worse than before
but stats can probably not tell it all

On December 09 2008 12:43 VanDerMeyde wrote: why havent u moved up to 1-2

Cause poker has been my income since a year and a half and I have been cashing out constantly to pay for expenses

I know it's kind of pathetic to play 50nl for a living, but cost of live is cheaper here. Will be moving up eventualy and stay there for good.

On December 09 2008 13:21 Edjon wrote: play with rakeback, it will reduce your pain

I'm supernova, the 5400fpps sng have basically paid for the last 2 month. I made about 9k$ from these this year, so it's like a rakeback.

You're a professional and have only played 500k hands this year? You don't seem to take your profession seriously.

I see a serious lack of effort here.

Put more effort into playing and studying your hands. Read books. Do everything. I think you said you had wife/kids? Take this shit seriously. Only thing that'd be worse than an busto poker pro looking for work in the US is a busto poker pro looking for work in Venezuela.

There is zero reason for a serious poker player who puts in a lot of effort/time into studying and playing to lose anywhere below 3/6 IMO.

On December 09 2008 14:16 Maynard! wrote: You're a professional and have only played 500k hands this year? You don't seem to take your profession seriously. I see a serious lack of effort here.

I do play more tables now and then, but I quickly loose focus and my winrate drops significantly, so I stay with 4tables. Most of you guys are ex-gamers and probably own me when it comes to multitasking.

I do study a lot and review my hands all the time, to the point that I'm obsessed with becoming better. I'm constantly telling myself to stop fucking around and take this shit seriously, but tbh I usualy play better when I'm taking it easy.

On December 09 2008 14:16 Maynard! wrote: You're a professional and have only played 500k hands this year? You don't seem to take your profession seriously. I see a serious lack of effort here.

joke right?

On December 09 2008 14:39 pinbaLL wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2008 14:16 Maynard! wrote: You're a professional and have only played 500k hands this year? You don't seem to take your profession seriously. I see a serious lack of effort here. joke right?

Not at all. Considering he plays 4 tables its fine amount of playing-effort. Albeit on the low-end.

500k hands 8-handed thus far in year amounts to around 2.5 hours per day. Thats extremely bad amount of effort if you're a professional trying to develop.

Its very different if you're already established and want to enjoy fruits of your labor by only playing 2.5 hours a day than if you're trying to establish yourself and move up from the micros.

its about 1500 hands a day 4 tabling I think

On December 09 2008 14:50 lebowski wrote: its about 1500 hands a day 4 tabling I think

this sounds about right, sometimes 1, sometimes 2 days off a week.

On December 09 2008 14:45 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2008 14:39 pinbaLL wrote:   On December 09 2008 14:16 Maynard! wrote: You're a professional and have only played 500k hands this year? You don't seem to take your profession seriously. I see a serious lack of effort here. joke right? Not at all. Considering he plays 4 tables its fine amount of playing-effort. Albeit on the low-end. 500k hands 8-handed thus far in year amounts to around 2.5 hours per day. Thats extremely bad amount of effort if you're a professional trying to develop. Its very different if you're already established and want to enjoy fruits of your labor by only playing 2.5 hours a day than if you're trying to establish yourself and move up from the micros.

assuming 4tabling 6max at those stakes is about 350 hands per hour including time spent looking for good tables and joining/leaving tables (which is my closest guess for hands/hr), that works out to an avg of 4 hours a day for this year, not sure where you got 2.5 from. thats a 28 hour week not counting extra time spent using forums and training sites and off-table reviewing in pt which should easily make it 30+ hrs/week with 0 days off. not one of the hardest workers in poker grinding history but you cant really fault him on that imo.

On December 09 2008 14:16 Maynard! wrote: You're a professional and have only played 500k hands this year? You don't seem to take your profession seriously. I see a serious lack of effort here. Put more effort into playing and studying your hands. Read books. Do everything. I think you said you had wife/kids? Take this shit seriously. Only thing that'd be worse than an busto poker pro looking for work in the US is a busto poker pro looking for work in Venezuela. There is zero reason for a serious poker player who puts in a lot of effort/time into studying and playing to lose anywhere below 3/6 IMO.

500k hands? that's freaking a lot. you are just playing like a mindless drone and make poker sites rich from the rake you pay.

On December 09 2008 15:59 Ket wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2008 14:45 Maynard! wrote:   On December 09 2008 14:39 pinbaLL wrote:   On December 09 2008 14:16 Maynard! wrote: You're a professional and have only played 500k hands this year? You don't seem to take your profession seriously. I see a serious lack of effort here. joke right? Not at all. Considering he plays 4 tables its fine amount of playing-effort. Albeit on the low-end. 500k hands 8-handed thus far in year amounts to around 2.5 hours per day. Thats extremely bad amount of effort if you're a professional trying to develop. Its very different if you're already established and want to enjoy fruits of your labor by only playing 2.5 hours a day than if you're trying to establish yourself and move up from the micros. assuming 4tabling 6max at those stakes is about 350 hands per hour including time spent looking for good tables and joining/leaving tables (which is my closest guess for hands/hr), that works out to an avg of 4 hours a day for this year, not sure where you got 2.5 from. thats a 28 hour week not counting extra time spent using forums and training sites and off-table reviewing in pt which should easily make it 30+ hrs/week with 0 days off. not exactly sick work ethic but you cant really fault him on that imo.

I went on the assumption of 8 handed. Once he said 4-handed I said it was barely above the acceptable level but still on the low end.

On December 09 2008 16:01 blah1234 wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2008 14:16 Maynard! wrote: You're a professional and have only played 500k hands this year? You don't seem to take your profession seriously. I see a serious lack of effort here. Put more effort into playing and studying your hands. Read books. Do everything. I think you said you had wife/kids? Take this shit seriously. Only thing that'd be worse than an busto poker pro looking for work in the US is a busto poker pro looking for work in Venezuela. There is zero reason for a serious poker player who puts in a lot of effort/time into studying and playing to lose anywhere below 3/6 IMO. 500k hands? that's freaking a lot. you are just playing like a mindless drone and make poker sites rich from the rake you pay.

If you're gonna be pro off of 50 or 100nl you gotta put yourself in a position to being able to put in long hours. You have to win 10-15 buyins/month to break even.

Playing 4 hours day is very little. Wake up, get a coffee and something to eat. Play 2 hours. Fuck around all day. Play another 2 hour session at 5. There needs to be far more effort than this.

Dude, seriously playing 8 tables is not for everybody. I'm actualy pretty impressed how some players manage to do it. But most 8tabling regulars at 50 and 100nl play really disciplined, but really weak postflop imo, missing a ton of value in obvious spots. I'm full of leaks myself btw, that's why I came here for advice.

maynard is right.

what's the point of going 'pro' when you only play 4 hours a day ? :s

Well maybe he's not fit for hardcore grinding, i tried grinding for 8h/day and believe me it's not enjoyable at all ...at least for me. Much more exhausting than std jobs where you can be on automatic pilot while a mistake in poker can destruct your winrate.

buy holdem manager of PT3. It will help your game

On December 09 2008 16:22 the cleaner wrote: Dude, seriously playing 8 tables is not for everybody. I'm actualy pretty impressed how some players manage to do it. But most 8tabling regulars at 50 and 100nl play really disciplined, but really weak postflop imo, missing a ton of value in obvious spots. I'm full of leaks myself btw, that's why I came here for advice.

Right I understand. 4-tables is fine. From your numbers you seem like a very strong player. Close to 4BB/100 over400k hands is extemely SOLID. You won't find many people at all who could post up that big of a BB over 400k hands. You've had a bad stretch of 100k but this happens. You're gonna win again for sure.

My point is this: you're a solid player with a great rate of return but you're broke. Why? You don't put enough time into your game. You'll never break free of 50/100 NL putting in the hours you put in. You need to work your ass off to break free of the middle stakes. What happens if you return to great profitability again and earn another 20k over 12 months? You'll go broke again, you're barely covering living expenses.

In short: Shit or get off the can.

I'm playing with Pt3 atm, kind of laggy on my laptop, the program has tilted me bad in the past, but will give it another shot.

Also it's not only the grind but also like 2 or 3 hrs extra/day trying to improve thru forums vids etc, as others have pointed out. It's not that I'm lazy or anything. I used to work day and night shifts before, really long hours. But I think that playing more then 4 or 5 hrs a day would burn out most players pretty fast. I'm surprise that there are players, even at midstakes who 24 table it's insane.

Anyways, I'm actualy trying to get out of this downswing and by playing more I think I would just make it worse ...

On December 09 2008 16:32 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2008 16:22 the cleaner wrote: Dude, seriously playing 8 tables is not for everybody. I'm actualy pretty impressed how some players manage to do it. But most 8tabling regulars at 50 and 100nl play really disciplined, but really weak postflop imo, missing a ton of value in obvious spots. I'm full of leaks myself btw, that's why I came here for advice. Right I understand. 4-tables is fine. From your numbers you seem like a very strong player. Close to 4BB/100 over400k hands is extemely SOLID. You won't find many people at all who could post up that big of a BB over 400k hands. You've had a bad stretch of 100k but this happens. You're gonna win again for sure. My point is this: you're a solid player with a great rate of return but you're broke. Why? You don't put enough time into your game. You'll never break free of 50/100 NL putting in the hours you put in. You need to work your ass off to break free of the middle stakes. What happens if you return to great profitability again and earn another 20k over 12 months? You'll go broke again, you're barely covering living expenses. In short: Shit or get off the can.

I agree with u that I have to put my biggest effort into building my roll and start to play vs better competition to improve myself. But I really can't put any more hrs in then that, I feel pretty much exhausted from last 2 month. It was actualy 160k hands, since I didn't post my stats for 25nl, cause its kind of embarrasing, cause I basically broke even for 30k hands.

Anyways, my hat of to people who can play more monthly without being affected by the stress that comes with it. I can't really spend more time then I am allready doing cause of a health related issue of somebody in my family. I don't want to go into more details here, cause it's personal, let's just say it takes away a lot of the spare time I have. It's one of the reasons also that I decided to get into online poker to make more monies then in my old job and be home more.

There is no magic button or paragraph that someone can write to make you stop breaking even. Maynard is giving the only concrete advice there is, play as much as you can. That is the only way to get better in poker, period. Just keep playing and trying harder. IF you think you are playing your max and trying your hardest but still can no longer win than poker is not for you and quit now. Period.

Maynard what u think about me then ? I played 200 000 hands this year

On December 09 2008 16:22 Tycho wrote: maynard is right. what's the point of going 'pro' when you only play 4 hours a day ? :s

are you serious?

-_- these ppl.

On December 09 2008 16:52 the cleaner wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2008 16:32 Maynard! wrote:   On December 09 2008 16:22 the cleaner wrote: Dude, seriously playing 8 tables is not for everybody. I'm actualy pretty impressed how some players manage to do it. But most 8tabling regulars at 50 and 100nl play really disciplined, but really weak postflop imo, missing a ton of value in obvious spots. I'm full of leaks myself btw, that's why I came here for advice. Right I understand. 4-tables is fine. From your numbers you seem like a very strong player. Close to 4BB/100 over400k hands is extemely SOLID. You won't find many people at all who could post up that big of a BB over 400k hands. You've had a bad stretch of 100k but this happens. You're gonna win again for sure. My point is this: you're a solid player with a great rate of return but you're broke. Why? You don't put enough time into your game. You'll never break free of 50/100 NL putting in the hours you put in. You need to work your ass off to break free of the middle stakes. What happens if you return to great profitability again and earn another 20k over 12 months? You'll go broke again, you're barely covering living expenses. In short: Shit or get off the can. I agree with u that I have to put my biggest effort into building my roll and start to play vs better competition to improve myself. But I really can't put any more hrs in then that, I feel pretty much exhausted from last 2 month. It was actualy 160k hands, since I didn't post my stats for 25nl, cause its kind of embarrasing, cause I basically broke even for 30k hands. Anyways, my hat of to people who can play more monthly without being affected by the stress that comes with it. I can't really spend more time then I am allready doing cause of a health related issue of somebody in my family. I don't want to go into more details here, cause it's personal, let's just say it takes away a lot of the spare time I have. It's one of the reasons also that I decided to get into online poker to make more monies then in my old job and be home more.

You'll break out of it man. You're a strong winner. Just let the variance monster take its course.

a 4ptbb/100 winner cannot have a 100k break even strech btw, i had a 100k breakeven strech in the past in 100nl, and that was cuz my edge was really small, improve your game.

On December 09 2008 17:11 VanDerMeyde wrote: Maynard what u think about me then ? I played 200 000 hands this year

You want me to compare apples to oranges?

Obviously some will need to play less than others. Some guy living in his moms garage who needs money only to rent videos and go out occasionally doesn't need to play that much. Most of his money earned goes directly to his bankroll that he can later use to move up. His monthly expenses may be 1-2 buyins. Even if he rarely plays he can have aggressively move up and be very loose with his move up. Someone who depends on the income with real life expenses cannot do as much.

Also the need to play more goes down as you rise in stakes. A 50 nl pro is going to have to put in insane amounts of hours. Even if this means that he has to play when he's not feeling well. He needs to play as long as hes profitable. It is absolutely important that he builds his bankroll so he can eat and move up. If he always waits til hes 100% sure his bb/100 will be great but he'll also be dead broke after a month or two. Same cannot be said for a 1k nl pro. They can get away with playing only when they're 100%.

A 50 nl pro needs to focus strongly on earning money. A 1k NL pro needs to focus strongly on improving game.

On December 09 2008 17:26 Baal wrote: a 4ptbb/100 winner cannot have a 100k break even strech btw, i had a 100k breakeven strech in the past in 100nl, and that was cuz my edge was really small, improve your game.

He may not be playing optimally but that doesn't mean that hes not capable of being 4bb/100 winner or was a winner at that level.

maynard: thanks for the support. Since I'm playing much more these last weeks then usual I probably will play more hands/month once I start winning again

Baal: I totaly agree with you and I am sure that I have made a lot of mistakes while on this breakeven stretch. Some real spewy shit, I posted some hands and I looked at them a couple of days later and I was like wtf was I thinking bluffing that station or calling down in spots where I'm obviously beat. Hopefully this will make me a stronger player and will make me look more into my game. For some reason, just posting about it and sharing it with others allready helped. Thanks

On December 09 2008 17:32 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2008 17:26 Baal wrote: a 4ptbb/100 winner cannot have a 100k break even strech btw, i had a 100k breakeven strech in the past in 100nl, and that was cuz my edge was really small, improve your game. He may not be playing optimally but that doesn't mean that hes not capable of being 4bb/100 winner or was a winner at that level.

i never claimed he is not capable of that, all im saying is he was NOT beating the game at 4ptbb/100 cuz at that winrate this kind of run is almost impossible.

On December 09 2008 17:51 Baal wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2008 17:32 Maynard! wrote:   On December 09 2008 17:26 Baal wrote: a 4ptbb/100 winner cannot have a 100k break even strech btw, i had a 100k breakeven strech in the past in 100nl, and that was cuz my edge was really small, improve your game. He may not be playing optimally but that doesn't mean that hes not capable of being 4bb/100 winner or was a winner at that level. i never claimed he is not capable of that, all im saying is he was NOT beating the game at 4ptbb/100 cuz at that winrate this kind of run is almost impossible.

Yea I was 4.5ptbb/100 over almost 500k hands. I posted my stats why would I change them ? Obviously I'm playing bad now cause of the breakeven stretch and making lots of mistakes.

It's tough to give you anything solid just based on stats, but the first thing that caught my attention is that your WSD is fairly high, especially for these stakes (where there's no need for light calldowns).

I agree with Maynard about work ethic. I have great respect for the hardcore grinders (though most of them are not good). Leatherass is the player I respect the most.

I just checked, it was like 380k hands, this was last quarter of 2007 and 2008 till oct. I was thinking about some 100nl hands too, that's why I mistakely said 500k. 380k/500k doesn't make much difference tho.

On December 09 2008 17:55 the cleaner wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2008 17:51 Baal wrote:   On December 09 2008 17:32 Maynard! wrote:   On December 09 2008 17:26 Baal wrote: a 4ptbb/100 winner cannot have a 100k break even strech btw, i had a 100k breakeven strech in the past in 100nl, and that was cuz my edge was really small, improve your game. He may not be playing optimally but that doesn't mean that hes not capable of being 4bb/100 winner or was a winner at that level. i never claimed he is not capable of that, all im saying is he was NOT beating the game at 4ptbb/100 cuz at that winrate this kind of run is almost impossible. Yea I was 4.5ptbb/100 over almost 500k hands. I posted my stats why would I change them ? Obviously I'm playing bad now cause of the breakeven stretch and making lots of mistakes.

i meant on that 100k break even stretch not previously

On December 09 2008 18:00 Baal wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2008 17:55 the cleaner wrote:   On December 09 2008 17:51 Baal wrote:   On December 09 2008 17:32 Maynard! wrote:   On December 09 2008 17:26 Baal wrote: a 4ptbb/100 winner cannot have a 100k break even strech btw, i had a 100k breakeven strech in the past in 100nl, and that was cuz my edge was really small, improve your game. He may not be playing optimally but that doesn't mean that hes not capable of being 4bb/100 winner or was a winner at that level. i never claimed he is not capable of that, all im saying is he was NOT beating the game at 4ptbb/100 cuz at that winrate this kind of run is almost impossible. Yea I was 4.5ptbb/100 over almost 500k hands. I posted my stats why would I change them ? Obviously I'm playing bad now cause of the breakeven stretch and making lots of mistakes. i meant on that 100k break even stretch not previously

yea, of course totally agree there. Sorry if I misunderstood.