Prop Bet 400 buy ins @25nl in 1 mo? - Page 2

he has no clue how difficult this will be.

not possible

On May 14 2008 17:41 MARSHALL28 wrote: Show nested quote + On May 14 2008 17:36 handbanana21 wrote: i put 2500 on it.. he only needs 1-2 days of running like ass to lose confidence. exactly my thinking

There is this other dude that bet he can win $40k @ NL200 FR in a month. So far he has ~$20k earned and 13 days to go (can't give you the source cause I read about it at the Polish version of LP). He had a few bad days, but he's still playing and he's not that far from winning the bet. And here it's NL25, not NL200, so I doubt he'll lose confidence in himself that easily. Even tho it's twice the amount of buy-ins the first dude has to win, it's still a lot easier IMO.

On May 14 2008 17:49 [vital]Myth wrote: not possible

bet?

On May 14 2008 17:49 [vital]Myth wrote: not possible

On May 14 2008 17:53 lostaccount wrote: Show nested quote + On May 14 2008 17:49 [vital]Myth wrote: not possible bet?

On May 14 2008 17:50 Kapol wrote: Show nested quote + On May 14 2008 17:41 MARSHALL28 wrote:   On May 14 2008 17:36 handbanana21 wrote: i put 2500 on it.. he only needs 1-2 days of running like ass to lose confidence. exactly my thinking There is this other dude that bet he can win $40k @ NL200 FR in a month. So far he has ~$20k earned and 13 days to go (can't give you the source cause I read about it at the Polish version of LP). He had a few bad days, but he's still playing and he's not that far from winning the bet. And here it's NL25, not NL200, so I doubt he'll lose confidence in himself that easily. Even tho it's twice the amount of buy-ins the first dude has to win, it's still a lot easier IMO.

he has to win ~13 buy ins a day .... if he breaks even one day ... means he has to win ~26 on another day jsut to keep stride. if he breaks even two days ... or if he runs bad and happens to lose ...even just one day ... he has to have a day where he wins 30 buy ins? ... how many days have you won 30 buy ins? ive done it like once in my life and i would bet my style is way way higher variance.

plus theres the problem that you cant outplay anyone at 25nl, you have to make hands and value bet well. if you dont make hands, gg. god i wish i had enough to spare so that i could bet against him doing it.

On May 14 2008 17:36 Hjorturkall wrote: Show nested quote + On May 14 2008 17:21 DaEm0niCuS wrote: 400k hands in one month? why do this at nl25. Could just make it nl200 or nl100 and he would make 4x or 8x the profit aka 40 or 80k, + the side bets. Seems like an epic waste of time. could play 1/4 the hands at 3/6 and make more then his profit+bet with no risk of losing the bet. lol Winrate at NL200 vs Winrate at NL25?

Even with half the winrate at nl200 your making 4x as much? and 2.5bb/100 at nl200 is not hard.

On May 14 2008 18:09 MARSHALL28 wrote: Show nested quote + On May 14 2008 17:50 Kapol wrote:   On May 14 2008 17:41 MARSHALL28 wrote:   On May 14 2008 17:36 handbanana21 wrote: i put 2500 on it.. he only needs 1-2 days of running like ass to lose confidence. exactly my thinking There is this other dude that bet he can win $40k @ NL200 FR in a month. So far he has ~$20k earned and 13 days to go (can't give you the source cause I read about it at the Polish version of LP). He had a few bad days, but he's still playing and he's not that far from winning the bet. And here it's NL25, not NL200, so I doubt he'll lose confidence in himself that easily. Even tho it's twice the amount of buy-ins the first dude has to win, it's still a lot easier IMO. he has to win ~13 buy ins a day .... if he breaks even one day ... means he has to win ~26 on another day jsut to keep stride. if he breaks even two days ... or if he runs bad and happens to lose ...even just one day ... he has to have a day where he wins 30 buy ins? ... how many days have you won 30 buy ins? ive done it like once in my life and i would bet my style is way way higher variance. plus theres the problem that you cant outplay anyone at 25nl, you have to make hands and value bet well. if you dont make hands, gg. god i wish i had enough to spare so that i could bet against him doing it.

thats everything in a nutshell.

this guy has no chance and im pretty sure hes puttin his whole bankroll on the line from what i read at cardrunners to do this bet...what a fuckin idiot

unless he cheats, possibly having multiple people play on same account? how would that be prevented?

not possible, ill take bets if u want.

On May 14 2008 18:14 wakeboarrder wrote: this guy has no chance and im pretty sure hes puttin his whole bankroll on the line from what i read at cardrunners to do this bet...what a fuckin idiot

can u link me to that?

that would be sick

I'll have to keep an eye on this, might be good money just sitting down to play with him after he's had a long session.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=201039&page=7


scroll down a bit it asks if thats his whole roll...im pretty sure that guy life knows this guy too

On May 14 2008 18:28 DaEm0niCuS wrote: unless he cheats, possibly having multiple people play on same account? how would that be prevented?

He will have a webcam setup to monitor his playing, and hand histories will be sent to for verification.

Current Running Action Total

$22,500 to win $9,000

not possible

id take the bet if it was 300buyins... i can just imagine how tight passive 25nl FR players are gonna be. This should be money in the bank for anyone betting.

anybody think theres a possibility it could be some kind of elaborate scam?