Prop Bet 400 buy ins @25nl in 1 mo? - Page 4

i just read this guy made 1k in 1 day at 25nl.. uh oh..

check his blog
http://dougkpolk.blogspot.com/

seems like hes a pretty motivated player as is, i think he'll do it.

this is really sick. I am really torn between believing he can do it or not so I don't think I will put any money against him,but definitely looking forward to the whole thing.

he has to win ~13 buy ins a day .... if he breaks even one day ... means he has to win ~26 on another day jsut to keep stride. if he breaks even two days ... or if he runs bad and happens to lose ...even just one day ... he has to have a day where he wins 30 buy ins? ... how many days have you won 30 buy ins? ive done it like once in my life and i would bet my style is way way higher variance.

This is so stupid and not true. If he has to win 13BI per day and lets say he is break even on his first day, then we can divide these 13 missing buy-ins into one day pieces.
13 / 30 = 0.43
That means he'll have to win ~13.5BI per day from now on. There's no need to win 26BI at any moment of this bet. Your thinking is really illogical.

On May 15 2008 03:16 Kapol wrote: Show nested quote + he has to win ~13 buy ins a day .... if he breaks even one day ... means he has to win ~26 on another day jsut to keep stride. if he breaks even two days ... or if he runs bad and happens to lose ...even just one day ... he has to have a day where he wins 30 buy ins? ... how many days have you won 30 buy ins? ive done it like once in my life and i would bet my style is way way higher variance. This is so stupid and not true. If he has to win 13BI per day and lets say he is break even on his first day, then we can divide these 13 missing buy-ins into one day pieces. 13 / 30 = 0.43 That means he'll have to win ~13.5BI per day from now on. There's no need to win 26BI at any moment of this bet. Your thinking is really illogical.

Which amounts to the same thing as a 0 buy in day and a 26 buy in day. 0.5 more BI than the starting projected average on each and every day after the break even day is still the same difference. How is what Marshall said so stupid and not true you monkey. He just used that example to say that a whiff on one day makes it that much harder for the other day/s.

As for the bet, I think if the odds are 2.5:1 against him completing it, and he can really discipline himself to 24 table for most hrs of the day throughout the month, it's a good bet for him. But it's pretty hard to tell.

because

if he breaks even one day ... means he has to win ~26 on another day

no he doesnt, because its not based on daily results.

im actually curious if u can retract bets since its still early. Im really unsure of my bet now.

LOL, iakim, take it easy. All I'm saying is that there is no need to win 26BI at any day of the bet as long as he doesn't run bad for a couple of days. And it seems that Marshall views it as a necessity, which is not true.

i am really thinking about putting 1 or 2k into this.

Sounds too hard imo

He got over $35,000 action already...
That would double his bankroll if he makes it happen.

this is impossible

13K a day at 5pt/100 its possible for some players
I dont want to gamble becouse Im sure something shady its gonna happen and will ruin the bet or something, like everyone playing in different accounts and sit at all his tables

I think you have to know the guy in order to make the bet. What if he's like Raszi or Elky in his begginings

On May 15 2008 03:08 handbanana21 wrote: i just read this guy made 1k in 1 day at 25nl.. uh oh..

Is there any source you can check for updates?

400 buy ins a month? 25NL is a joke but there's no way. he'll def. make a few hundred but I doubt 400.

lol, its unlikely a 3/6 5/10 player (checked his blog) is gonna do anything like lose confidence or w/e while playing so u can prob forget about an epic downswing and expect variance free money, pretty sick playing that many tables tho ;s

haha some of the better players should just bet a huge amount that hes going to fail and then constantly follow him around alll the time

oops posted this while i was on the first page didnt see it was mentioned

hehe thats what i always think of everytime for stuff like this, but in this case theyve covered it. already in the rules that nobody betting against him cant sit at his tables unless they prove their regular stakes are 25nl anyway. ofcourse they have no way to monitor using smurf accounts but then youd ofcourse just be flat out cheating the bet and no longer taking advantage of a loophole

won't do it, seems possible to me. thinking about only half a buy-in per day and table if he is 26 tabling, and as a high/mid stakes player he for sure has an edge.

Since nobody of the guys betting against him are allowed to play on his tables, but you can hire other guys to do it for you?

I am free to hire!

nah, just kidding. However, it's gonna be fun to follow this, he is installing a webcam so that you can observe him playing, big-brother of poker!