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Overplaying hands

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NewbSaibot   United States. May 12 2016 12:33. Posts 4943

More or less spots to attack pots, not sure how aggressively I should be playing these. All hands are roughly 150BB effective.

2/5

UTG raises to $30, 6 callers, Hero calls with 75hh on the button.
Flop 68Thh
UTG cbets $30....... 3 callers. My ego says to raise this shit, but part of me says just take the ridiculous pot odds and draw for cheap.

Hero raises KJhh $20 from MP+3. BB calls (he's tried to bluff me off rivers 3 times by overbetting, I've just always had good showdown value)
Flop 728hh
BB donkbets $40.... again my instinct is to just raise him, but it feels like nothing better is ever really going to fold, whatever pair he's probably donking with he'll just snap call, but I stand a good chance of getting paid if I hit so just call?

Villain limps UTG, Hero raises HJ $25 with ATo, BB and villain call
Flop T85r
BB and villain check, Hero cbets $40, BB folds, villain c/r to $120. This villain has made several comments about my betting frequency and seems to try to play sheriff against me (float me OOP with Ace high, call cbet with bottom pair, and 2nd barrel with turned OESD, etc). My gut instinct is to 3bet to $250, but it seems like I'm just bluffing the pot if I do this. If I think he's just being a twat then let him keep stabbing, but it's just such a vulnerable hand. Not really in love with letting him see random turn cards at his price though. Maybe jam as a value-bluff if such a thing exists? Like basically makes it look tilted and gets him to call off if he thinks I just have AK or something.



These are basically all spots that have to do with overplaying my hands, or letting villains valuetown themselves. Is coming over the top in marginal spots where you only *might* be ahead solid? Am I just setting myself up to be folding big pots when villain jams for his last $100 into a $700 pot?

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bye nowLast edit: 12/05/2016 14:13

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. May 12 2016 15:20. Posts 9634

Hand 1 easy call, why would we go from perfect option to realize our equity to turning our hand into a semi bluff?
Hand 2 easy call, same reasoning plus we can always raise the turn as it looks much stronger
Hand 3 easy call, don't play the he thinks that I think that he thinks game, let him hang himself
Don't level yourself, this is not an ego game


NewbSaibot   United States. May 12 2016 15:37. Posts 4943

Hand 1: Well I like the idea of a semi-bluff because villain's hand seems to be something like AK, what is what a fish would do when he has no chance at winning the pot but thinks he has to cbet because thats how you play winning poker. I put the callers on equally stupid reasonings with random pairs and a gutshot here or there. Not sure I can get a 10 to fold though. But sets me up to barrel turn which I think anyone who's left will shut down on.

Hand 2: what kind of turn cards do you like to raise with? What if villain pots turn again, are we still raising?

Hand 3: if we're letting him hang himself are there any scare cards for us? Or are we just going with it?

bye now 

DooMeR   United States. May 12 2016 18:04. Posts 8544


  On May 12 2016 14:20 Spitfiree wrote:
Hand 1 easy call, why would we go from perfect option to realize our equity to turning our hand into a semi bluff?
Hand 2 easy call, same reasoning plus we can always raise the turn as it looks much stronger
Hand 3 easy call, don't play the he thinks that I think that he thinks game, let him hang himself
Don't level yourself, this is not an ego game



I disagree on the first hand. I'd estimate a large % of the time its best to call but with such an insanely small cbet and 3 callers. We have a very good spot to raise and barrel off given some more information about the stacks of the other players and tendencies. I'd be VERY tempted to raise and blast off in some spots.

2nd hand i agree mostly. Though honestly vs someone super sticky i might just flat turn because we are always getting our equity paid off on river when we hit. But i could see reasoning for raising turn. Im not likely to want to raise flop vs this exact player though.

3rd hand definitely flat. You can't just try and end hands that are going to get complicated to play because you just don't feel like playing the spot out. You're gonna have to just call and make decisions.

I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance, by running away from the scene of an accident. 

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. May 12 2016 19:16. Posts 5070

I don't play live, but if those spots came up online I'd have no problem with raising hands 1 and 2 with the intention of keeping the pressure up on most turns. Of course, can't really go wrong calling either, wouldn't mind either play myself. If I had to raise one and call one I'd raise Hand 1 though. Cbet of 30 into almost 200 and just some flat calls seems super weak. Obv not folding to a single jam after raising, would have far too much equity. Maybe a fold would be necessary if multiple people got it in. Would prob raise to ~180 and straight jam most turns if there's 1 caller

Hand 3 I wouldn't always cbet, and wouldn't always call a check raise, but with your read against this villain I'd just call and look to call him down on most runouts if he's getting out of line. Don't "hate" 3betting to call it off if he's super crazy but would hate it if plan is to go 250/fold to jam. I wouldn't be massively worried about protection personally, there's nothing wrong with calling flop to fold on bad turns. If he's going super nutso bluffing with random low equity shit a lot I wouldn't be worried about too many turn cards anyway. Just call and evaluate turn imo

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 12/05/2016 19:42

PoorUser    United States. May 12 2016 19:49. Posts 7471

raise
call
call

dont think any are v close except maybe hand 2 depending on his tendencies/spazz type.

Gambler Emeritus 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. May 12 2016 21:23. Posts 9634

Oh right i didn't see the cbet amount @ hand1 i auto assumed its stnd size, it does change things drastically as sets/2p are out of the picture
nvm actually this many ppl in the hand a decent size would make raising/stackoff better as wel
im just used to hu pots where ppl tend to raise/stackoff trhere thinking they've got enough equity and they are actually always a behind by at least 3-5%

 Last edit: 12/05/2016 21:33

NewbSaibot   United States. May 13 2016 01:52. Posts 4943

Ok. FYI I just called in all of those spots to avoid spew, but glad to know playing them a little harder like I really wanted to isnt a huge leak.

bye now 

NewbSaibot   United States. May 13 2016 08:28. Posts 4943

1 more spot that came up tonight, with me trying to open up my game a little. BTN is semi-passive recfish, new to game, nothing noteworthy other than he's never out of line.

2/5

BTN (100BB) raises to $25, SB (200BB) mega station calls, Hero (200BB) in BB calls with KJss. (Probably already off to a bad start, I had been kinda tight for awhile and got impatient, plus SB on my right will literally pay off anything)

Flop AT8hhs

SB checks, Hero checks, BTN cbets $25...... So I'm thinking this is another one of those desperation cbets or someone who cant remember whats in the pot.
SB folds, Hero c/r to $75 with gutshot and backdoor flush. Is this ever good? Is this better against aggro players or just super passive players?

BTN tank calls, staring at board texture entire time, never makes eye-contact. Turn is a brick, any point in barreling? Or has he pretty much made his stand? I mean, maybe just maybe I get him off QQ or something that he couldnt bare to let go on the flop. I check and he snap bet something like $125 which seemed odd. I folded but wtf?

bye nowLast edit: 13/05/2016 08:31

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. May 13 2016 14:30. Posts 9634

I'd sqz pre if SB is a station for sure.
X/ring gutshot +bdfd is super stnd, just not at this board/spot as you lack nuts in your range


ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. May 13 2016 15:58. Posts 5070

I'd def squeeze that. I'd squeeze that hand pretty much regardless of who is in the SB. Would need some super specific read that he's mega tight and slowplays lots of hands hoping for a squeeze to not want to squeeze KJs there. In this spot there's extra incentive to want to squeeze to isolate the SB fish and bloat the pot with a good hand against a bad player with a weak range.

I've done a decent amount of work with GTO solvers and at 100bb eff I've not found a single flop where oop isn't check raising some % in a SRP. Check raise percentages are naturally extremely low on boards like AK5, but I believe one still does exist, just a small one. On this board we can still have strong draws, AT, A8, 88, which, although aren't the stone nuts are obviously super strong and want to get more money in a decent amount of the time. So, this is a decent candidate to bluff raise some amount of the time on the flop. It's pretty much your lowest equity hand on the turn so I don't mind a give up. I'm no live pro, but agree his posturing on flop and turn timing do seem odd. Not much you can do about it with this hand though

Edit: Curious about results in Hand 3 btw. Hands like that where there seems to be a lot of levelling going on are always interesting

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 13/05/2016 16:05

NewbSaibot   United States. May 13 2016 19:47. Posts 4943

Results:

Hand 1: initial raiser had AJo (no heart) for nothing. Everyone checked it to showdown and some guy in the middle won with a random pair.

Hand 2: Villain had A2o and 3 barreled bottom pair, I hit a jack on the river and called. He got upset.

Hand 3 villain had T7o. I called his c/r and he barreled all 3 streets on a T8577 runout, i called but did not get it allin. I felt fine about it at the time. All 3 of these villains busted later in predictable manners.

bye nowLast edit: 13/05/2016 19:49

traxamillion   United States. May 13 2016 22:57. Posts 10468

U raise utg limper in hijack with ATo but think it is bad to defend BB with KJss vs BU open and SB call?


traxamillion   United States. May 13 2016 22:58. Posts 10468

And yea squeezing kj there is fine


ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. May 14 2016 02:47. Posts 5070

Ran a 10 hour sim through Simple postflop with a BTN raise vs BB call range on AK5r to gauge IP cbet range and oop check raise range using my personal standard button raise range and the BB defend range taken from the recent simple postflop "GTO preflop" defend range. IP decides to cbet 1/3rd pot 32.28% of range, 1/2 pot never, 3/4 pot 36.06% of range and check back the remaining 31.66% of range. BB check raises 7.12% of the time vs the 1/3rd sizing and 2.13% of the time vs the 3/4ths sizing. I can't imagine too many worse flops for the BB defend range and yet BB is still check raising 2.13% of the time vs a 75% flop cbet sizing. Hard to imagine a flop where check raise doesn't exist with these stack depths. Hard to imagine check raising KJss here is bad some of the time, at least in terms of game theory. Obviously, given people don't play GTO, check raise might be bad if villain underbluffs flop, over defends vs a check raise etcetc. Seems like a solid play anyway. Nothing wrong with check raising and giving up on poor turns when you end up with bottom of your range

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hopeLast edit: 14/05/2016 03:04

DooMeR   United States. May 14 2016 18:07. Posts 8544


  On May 14 2016 01:47 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
Ran a 10 hour sim through Simple postflop with a BTN raise vs BB call range on AK5r to gauge IP cbet range and oop check raise range using my personal standard button raise range and the BB defend range taken from the recent simple postflop "GTO preflop" defend range. IP decides to cbet 1/3rd pot 32.28% of range, 1/2 pot never, 3/4 pot 36.06% of range and check back the remaining 31.66% of range. BB check raises 7.12% of the time vs the 1/3rd sizing and 2.13% of the time vs the 3/4ths sizing. I can't imagine too many worse flops for the BB defend range and yet BB is still check raising 2.13% of the time vs a 75% flop cbet sizing. Hard to imagine a flop where check raise doesn't exist with these stack depths. Hard to imagine check raising KJss here is bad some of the time, at least in terms of game theory. Obviously, given people don't play GTO, check raise might be bad if villain underbluffs flop, over defends vs a check raise etcetc. Seems like a solid play anyway. Nothing wrong with check raising and giving up on poor turns when you end up with bottom of your range



Who are you... and what have you done with midian... MIDIAN IF YOU CAN HEAR ME WE ARE GOING TO SAVE U. Dont worry!

I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance, by running away from the scene of an accident. 

traxamillion   United States. May 17 2016 03:17. Posts 10468

are these played in florida? fishy as fuck


NewbSaibot   United States. May 17 2016 09:53. Posts 4943


  On May 17 2016 02:17 traxamillion wrote:
are these played in florida? fishy as fuck

Yep. Saturday night I had a guy shove $1000 over my $150 on a K33ss flop with 99 because he thought I was stealing (his words). I had the 3 of course, and I covered him.

bye nowLast edit: 17/05/2016 09:55

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. May 17 2016 17:10. Posts 9634

If only people reacted that way when they had to pay taxes :D


traxamillion   United States. May 19 2016 18:45. Posts 10468

Haha sweet


JohnnyBologna   United States. May 20 2016 14:54. Posts 1401

I luve in florida. Whats that suppose to mean? :/

Just do whats right 

 



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