On January 10 2016 21:19 iakim322 wrote:
Kinda lazy re-watched most of Faber-Cruz 2. Not sure how much of it has to do with Faber, at that point, not being as faded as he is now but Cruz wasn't quite as elusive as I thought I remembered. He was starting to get consistently tagged on his way out of his quick dash in and out exchanges that Cruz does so often. With just Faber's short ranged fists. So not sure why TJ can't start timing it, cover up a sec, then smash Cruz with body kicks on Cruz's way out which would change/lessen Cruz's whole offense. Made me re-appreciate Cruz's underrated chain takedown/wrestling that no one really talks about though. Probably going to change to pass and just root for Cruz
Yes man agree with you. Cruz to me looks vulnerable to head kicks with his style. At the same time TJ for me is vulnerable to takedowns. So very interesting dynamic. Just hope to see Dominick in top shape. Here is the fight where he puts a grappling clinic ot DJ:
Yea thinking more about it and watching previous fights along with Sober being so sure about the standup, been agreeing more and more that Cruz is going to be vulnerable to TJ's athleticism no matter how much Dom moves. Going to be really interesting if it hits the ground though. Like I said I think Dom's chain takedowns and wrestling is underrated. I forgot that Dom actually started his beatdown of Mizugaki with a dash in punch into a really quick duck in, takedown before Mizugaki had even really registered he'd been tagged
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Stim_Abuser United States. Jan 11 2016 01:56. Posts 7499
Not to say Cruz can't take him down because Cruz is the best in the business, but TJ has never been taken down in his entire career. How does he look susceptible to takedowns again?
Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete
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Minsk United States. Jan 11 2016 02:13. Posts 1558
I would rather take the safer Pettis ML than Pettis ITD, both may be good, but I would take ML before ITD, to me its well known that good offense > really good punching bag, that is very clear.
Does the good offense collapse the punching bag? Thats ambiguous, and I cant remember seeing a better punching bag than Alvarez.
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 11 2016 02:26. Posts 13050
On January 11 2016 00:56 Stim_Abuser wrote:
Not to say Cruz can't take him down because Cruz is the best in the business, but TJ has never been taken down in his entire career. How does he look susceptible to takedowns again?
TJ hasn't looked susceptible to take downs yet, imo.
TJ has only faced 1 wrestler in his 10-fight UFC career, and it was against Joe Soto, who took the 5-round fight on 1-day notice. They had trained together not long before that specific UFC card, which was the ironic part of it all.
On the flip side, Cruz has taken down the following fighters with wrestling in their arsenal in his WEC/UFC career: Faber, Benavidez, Jorgensen, and Demetrious Johnson.
p.s. Jimy Hettes looks to be injured, so the UFC is trying to find a replacement opponent for Charles Rosa.
why would it be interesting if it hits the ground? fuck the ground these are not BJJ gods... they have possibly the best footwork in mma, I want to see them strike.
Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 11 2016 08:19. Posts 13050
On January 11 2016 00:56 Stim_Abuser wrote:
Not to say Cruz can't take him down because Cruz is the best in the business, but TJ has never been taken down in his entire career. How does he look susceptible to takedowns again?
Did not express myself correctly. Cruz has not been kicked in the head also. This is just a dynamic I think we are going to see in the fight. TJ is a good wrestler but with his aggressive attacks and kicks that he throws and Cruz timing I see him being taken down, because that is the best way for Dom to win the fight. I give TJ edge if they just keep it standing, but Dom mixes thing a lot better.
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Stim_Abuser United States. Jan 11 2016 12:56. Posts 7499
On January 11 2016 07:07 Baalim wrote:
why would it be interesting if it hits the ground? fuck the ground these are not BJJ gods... they have possibly the best footwork in mma, I want to see them strike.
While I don't wanna see much groundwork either, it is a pleasure to watch TJ transition from striking into wrestling
Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete
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iakim322 United States. Jan 12 2016 06:00. Posts 1335
Both have good striking into takedown/wrestling transitions. And yeah I want to see them strike too and clearly that will happen. But it'd be interesting if it hits the ground to see who really has the upper hand there because I don't think really educated guesses can be made about that given what we know
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 12 2016 09:09. Posts 13050
These are the 3 guys who are coming in on short notice for Jimy Hettes, Mairbek Taisumov, and Abdul-Kerim Edilov.
Sucks that those fights fell off but selfishly happy because I really didn't have much action on em and maybe there will be some bad lines by Kalikas.
Will be studying those 3 tonight and their respective match-ups but I will say off the bat that its good to see Mutapcic getting a shot because he's got some quality wins.
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 13 2016 23:42. Posts 13050
Rekrul is a newb
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iakim322 United States. Jan 14 2016 06:00. Posts 1335
These are the 3 guys who are coming in on short notice for Jimy Hettes, Mairbek Taisumov, and Abdul-Kerim Edilov.
Sucks that those fights fell off but selfishly happy because I really didn't have much action on em and maybe there will be some bad lines by Kalikas.
Will be studying those 3 tonight and their respective match-ups but I will say off the bat that its good to see Mutapcic getting a shot because he's got some quality wins.
Hurry up with this analysis homework on new guys man. Someone's got DK lineups to make.
What's known about Joey Gomez? Besides the fact that his record is all first round KO's vs a bunch of nobodies. I really liked Font from just the few minutes I've seen of him.
- > Nm. Read what was posted on first page. Guess it's not a surprise not much is known about him given the short actual ring time.
Last edit: 14/01/2016 06:03
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iakim322 United States. Jan 14 2016 06:45. Posts 1335
On January 11 2016 07:19 PuertoRican wrote:
They need to have this face off kinda segment with Conor. TJ just doesn't work
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 14 2016 21:41. Posts 13050
Augusto Mendes is now out due to injury, or something...
His replacement isn't 100% confirmed yet, but there was a Twitter mention that some guy named Kyle Bochniak is replacing Mendes. Kyle fought 6 days ago and won, and he lives in Boston, which is where this UFC card is being held at.
I find this card very difficult to bet on, I want to bet on Pettis but for that odds I need to make a parlay of at least one more bet. I will have to investigate more the "unknown" fighters.
These are the 3 guys who are coming in on short notice for Jimy Hettes, Mairbek Taisumov, and Abdul-Kerim Edilov.
Sucks that those fights fell off but selfishly happy because I really didn't have much action on em and maybe there will be some bad lines by Kalikas.
Will be studying those 3 tonight and their respective match-ups but I will say off the bat that its good to see Mutapcic getting a shot because he's got some quality wins.
Hurry up with this analysis homework on new guys man. Someone's got DK lineups to make.
What's known about Joey Gomez? Besides the fact that his record is all first round KO's vs a bunch of nobodies. I really liked Font from just the few minutes I've seen of him.
- > Nm. Read what was posted on first page. Guess it's not a surprise not much is known about him given the short actual ring time.
Disclaimer, I regret the ITD bet on Font. I think between him coming off the layoff and Gomez being super dangerous (he's actually supposed to be a pretty legit blue-chipper and the tape backs that up - great jab, vicious power on the counter, etc) this has a great chance to be a competitive fight that goes the distance. I still like Font where I got him at -200 because I don't think (although I can't be sure) Gomez can beat him a sustainable percentage of the time, but I just think its closer than I initially did. I think the correct play if probably at this point where the odds are and the DK price is is to pass on the fight completely and just try and gather information for future fights.
There is actually one Gomez play I like but I need to wait for my degenerate football bets to finish before I can make more bets.
As far as Mutapcic, I just can't bet him against the much stronger and lamer Barroso. I want to, but I think the odds are about right.
As far as Rosa's third opponent (wtf), I'm gonna study him now, I can't imagine this isn't a layup for Rosa though, he's being a real company guy here and I think at this point they are fine with giving him a complete layup here (I could be wrong, but this other guys resume is trash). This may be a rare instance where I bet a submission prop (in general I think submissions in 2016 are more a product of gas-tank issues / fighters breaking / unpredictable submissions to finish off fighters hurt by strikes etc).
Tangent here, but the days of betting pure submission fighters to win by submission profitably are long gone. Position > submission is such an important concept in fighting smart and to be frank, there are very few fighters that are so good at no gi grappling (the Palhareses, Jacare's, Oliveria's and Ortegas of the world are rare) that one can't simply gameplan properly to be ready to defend the normal TD-GuardPass-Wait-for-Mistake-Capitalize and submit. It just doesn't happen that way anymore. While striking offense in MMA is far ahead of striking defense, submission defense is far ahead of submission offense.
To my point, other than Neil Magney, Damien Maia hasn't submitted anyone since 2009. It's not that he's unwilling to go for subs, it's just that he's too intelligent to commit to them on guys that can potentially whether the storm and beat up a gassed out guy who went all-in on a half-sunk in guillotine, etc. I guess all I'm saying are that submission's these days are just a product of happen-stance within fights, not stylistic matchups on paper.
Sorry for the rant, but I'm just thinking as I type. I think this is part of what makes what Weidman did vs Rockhold in round 1 so fucking retarded. Not the spinning back-kick, he already deserved to lose at that point. It was the initial taking of Luke Rockholds back at the very beginning of the fight that made absolutely ZERO sense. He completely gassed himself out for no reason trying to work for some pipedream standing RNC on the physically superior guy. What a retard god-dammit. I can forgive a terrible spinning back-kick when you are bludgeoned, exhausted, and not thinking clearly, but I will never forgive his gameplan. And I love the man. I said on this forum before that fucking fight that one thing Weidman needs to not do is initiate grappling exchanges early when both guys were fresh, and what does he do? SMFH. And no, I'm not saying Weidman wins the fight if he plays it smart, I just think we would have seen an epic 5-round war and instead we got a disappointing fight in terms of excitement and technique (other than Weidman getting pulverized defenseless for a minute straight)
Other bets I'm not feeling great about making are Cote Decision at +250 (just way too many things other than that can happen for that to profitable) and putting Blanco in parlays. I'm personally not that impressed with what I've seen of Sanders and think Blanco is constantly improving but apparently people in the 'know' disagree and are leaning Sanders - thinking he'll be a top 10 BW within a year. We'll see.
Super happy with Pettis straight (free money), Pettis ITD at +140, Mitrione at +145, O'Connel at +190 (will be throwing more on him at +230 if weighins dont show me anything to re-think), Boetsch at -185, and Dillashaw in all forms.
