UFC FN 81: Dillashaw vs. Cruz

Date: Sunday, January 17th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:59 LP.net / 3pm PST / 6pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 2:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 4:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

T.J. Dillashaw (12-2) vs. Dominick Cruz (20-1) (Bantamweight Championship)
Anthony Pettis (18-3) vs. Eddie Alvarez (26-4) (Lightweight)
Travis Browne (17-3-1) vs. Matt Mitrione (9-4) (Heavyweight)
Ross Pearson (18-9) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (18-4) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Patrick Cote (22-9) vs. Ben Saunders (19-6-2) (Welterweight)
Chris Wade (10-1) vs. Mehdi Baghdad (11-3) (Lightweight)
Tim Boetsch (18-9) vs. Ed Herman (22-11) (Middleweight)
Maximo Blanco (12-6-1) vs. Luke Sanders (10-0) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Paul Felder (10-2) vs. Daron Cruickshank (16-7) (Lightweight)
Charles Rosa (10-2) vs. Augusto Mendes (5-0) (Featherweight)
Ilir Latifi (10-4) vs. Sean O'Connell (17-6) (Light Heavyweight)
Robert Font (11-1) vs. Joey Gomez (6-0) (Bantamweight)
Francimar Barroso (17-4) vs. Elvis Mutapcic (15-3) (Light Heavyweight)

Other

- Beneil Dariush was expected to face Mairbek Taisumov at this event. However on December 3, Dariush was forced to pull out of the bout due to injury. He was replaced by Chris Wade. In turn, Taisumov was pulled from the fight during the week leading to the event due to alleged visa issues and was replaced by promotional newcomer Mehdi Baghdad.
- Dennis Bermudez was expected to face Maximo Blanco at this event. However on December 5, Bermudez pulled out of the bout due to a staph infection in his shin. On January 4, it was announced that he was replaced by promotional newcomer Luke Sanders.
- Patrick Williams was expected to face Rob Font at this event. However, Williams was forced to pull out due to injury in late December. He was replaced by promotional newcomer Joey Gomez.
- Jimy Hettes was expected to face Charles Rosa. However on January 10, only 8 days before the event, Hettes pulled out due to injury. He was replaced by promotional newcomer Augusto Mendes.
- Promotional newcomer Abdul-Kerim Edilov was expected to face Francimar Barroso at the event. However, Edilov pulled out of the fight in the days leading up to the event citing a knee injury and was replaced by fellow newcomer Elvis Mutapcic.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Cruz > Dillashaw
• Pettis > Alvarez
• Browne > Mitrione
• Pearson > Trinaldo
• Cote > Saunders
• Taisumov > Wade
• Boetsch > Herman
• Blanco vs. Sanders (dunno)
• Felder > Cruickshank
• Rosa > Hettes
• Latifi > O'Connell
• Font > Gomez
• Barroso vs. Edilov (dunno)

Hype.

I think Dillashaw has a greater chance here than people think

well he is the favourite

Can't wait for this fight. Cruz is my favorite fighter, no doubt the smartest one around. He has the size advantage, better fight IQ and I believe a smoother transition between striking and grappling. If he comes back in his top form I have no doubt he takes this fight, but that is a big if and i hoped for wider odds to be honest.

Probably the best bet here is the over 4.5 rounds. This fight goes to decision almost all the time, imo. I am also interested to see the odds for Blanco - Sanders. This Luke Sanders guy looks pretty good, he should smash Blanco.

Pretty great card, but I really wish Felder v Cruickshank wasn't fight pass :[

this is like Superman vs bizarro Superman

Cruz > TJ - Though I'm not sure how anyone can be so confident on this pick either way unless you just so happen to be in Dominick's camp

Pettis >>>>>> Alvarez - Pettis seems to be fairly intelligent and also seems like he took his whipping from RDA in a positive way. The stuff he should have worked on to be better for an eventual rematch with RDA should directly correlate to negating Eddie's game which never really changes

Not sure I have a real opinion on Browne vs Mitrione. One has great power, chin, and a lengthy athletic frame yet generally sucks at almost all aspects of MMA. The other can actually look really fluid on his feet for a heavyweight but has a questionable chin, questionable decision making, and is still a fish out of water on the ground after several years. Fun matchup I guess

Any thoughts on Rosa vs Hettes? Odds are -178 for Rosa. I think that'll be my heaviest though I haven't decided yet. Not that I think Rosa is actually a really good fighter with a high ceiling. Actually the opposite in regards to ceiling. Just that Rosa was kinda close to imposing his physical strength and will on Yair Rodriguez...who I consider to be leagues above Hettes as a fighter and even stronger too. As long as Rosa isn't too over eager and gets caught in a submission by Hettes off his back, I don't see Hettes fighting off Rosa's takedown and from there, thinking it will be a physical mismatch. Haven't seen Hettes's last fight with Brandao yet though. One thing to note is that this is probably Hettes with his back against the wall very possibly facing a cut if he loses

I love Pettis's fighting style but He is impossible to play at this odds. Actually at close to +300 I will be stabbing Alvarez for sure. He was able to outgrapple Melendez in his last fight with a closed eye, so I see no reason that he's not able to do the same against Pettis.

I think the blueprint to beat Showtime is out there and Eddie has the skills to replicate it , especially in a 3 round fight. I can see him taking 2 rounds and winning a decision a lot. There is value there I think.

Pettis > Alvarez.

I've learned this lesson already, good offence > good punching bag.

Pressure and rhythm (RDA) is the counter to Pettis's style, not being tough.

Dillashaw > Cruz - Will be betting Dillashaw moderately heavy and am just waiting for the odds to narrow. Too many factors to summarize everything but a few things:

I think are that the Public will be way off on this one due to the hype and media bias inherently there. People have a ridiculous notion that TJ is a 'snake in the grass' because Conor said it and Lugwig is a shady fellow. That said, wtf would you do if the guy made you a champion. I know what I woud do.

If TJ loses a tight decision to Cruz because he's a brilliant fighter who makes more adjustments and out-points for the W, I can't be shocked. If TJ just can't figure him out and Cruz comes in and confuses him for enough of the fight, lands frustrating shots, and TJ breaks mentally, it's a predictable outcome but how can is it be a likely one? If not, does Cruz have other avenues to victory?

If Dillashaw loses, I will be real disappointed in my handicapping of this fight, which is much wider than I think it is perceived to be by most. With the exception of the Weidman fight, I've typically done well when agreeing with odd-setters and disagreeing with the public narrative on big fights like this. The narrative is that this is a coin-flip fight.

If you watch his last fight vs Mizugaki objectively, he looked slower and it was a very odd exception to the rule that Cruz has pillow fists (it didn't even seem like anything hard hit Mizugaki). When I watched his older fights, he wasn't dealing with anyone on Dillashaw's level offensively and had a massive size advantage vs the only Elite guys he fought. He's the one who's actually never faced real adversity inside the cage. Faber actually made it competitive (which is probably worth noting) but ultimately he just didn't have the tools. Don't let those hype video's fool you, Cruz leaves openings but it would take a very athletic, fast, and diverse striker to catch him. Dillashaw fits the bill. He also matches the cardio and output, is more dangerous, and clearly should be more in his prime. Everyone likes the over but a finish by TJ would not surprise me in the least. If Cruz gets hurt and is forced against the cage, Dillashaw has some rage to let loose.

Pettis > Alvarez - Agree with Iakim. Just don't see this going any other way than a Pettis 'W' and probably a finish at some point. Alvarez is tough but Pettis is lethal. This feels like a true lock.

Mitrione > Browne - Love the under and Mitrione at the odds, I think he can outstrike Browne and if he loses it will be early. Browne really does suck though. I can't believe he was ranked #3 and was a -200 fav over Werdum. He's dangerous and has gotten extremely lucky, but is an incredibly flawed fighter. Atleast with Mitrione, he has a reliable skill set, Browne really just kind of goes out there and looks to do something abnormal yet effective due to his brute athleticism.

Pearson > Trinaldo - Like Pearson by decision here. Not overly confident, Pearson is very predictable but solid enough and Trinaldo is more tricky to evaluate but is also ancient and I believe will just get out-volumed by the younger fighter. Pearson's chin is questionable but he showed vs Felder that its not terrible and he just seems to be steadily improving / gaining confidence. Trinaldo can win but I think that would require fighting the perfect fight.

Cote v Saunders - True pickem for me. Really comes down to the cliche who comes in with a better gameplan and fights a better fight. I think the single most likely outcome is Cote by decision via veteran savvy, redic chin, great IQ and cardio. Saunders is dangerous in the clinch and on the ground and I think he'll need to get it there in round 1 and hurt/tire-out/finish Cote before he finds his rhythm in order to win the fight. I think Cote will be better in boxing range and will figure out a way to make a large enough portion of the fight take place there.

Taisumov > Wade - Not sold on Wade, I think this is where it ends for him winning fights via wrestling, toughness, and athleticism. I think the odds were set properly and are getting hefty though. Taisumov is very good, dangerous, and well rounded but like a lot of the great strikers from his region, he is a rhythm fighter. I think in order to win, Wade needs to have improved quite and bit and really be able to grind on Taisumov, and I doubt that happens. If Taisumov gets going early, Wade's probably going to get hurt, tired, sloppy, and fall into a trap wherever the fight is taking place.

Boetsch > Herman - More of a fade then anything. Herman is really old and I just don't really see how he gets it done unless Boetsch out-does himself in the blowing it category.

Blanco > Sanders - Odds not out yet which is odd. Sanders not overly impressive prospect IMO. Just seems well-rounded, tough, solid athlete that seems to possibly hit hard. Blanco is improving and is a would class athlete that has proven much much more.

Felder > Cruickshank - Watched a lot of tape on this one and am very confident. Cruikshank never made the improvements he needed to and Felder, while a bad bet vs Pearson, just ran into a borderline Elite guy in Barboza who is similar to him, and then what proved to be a tough style matchup against solid savvy vet in Pearson. He's better than Cruikshank everywhere, has a better chin, and a better gas tank. Both guys are dangerous but Felder is far more durable.

Rosa > Hettes - Iakim - I'd be hesitant to go big. Hettes is much stronger than Yair in the clinch and on the ground, which is where both of these guys want to be. I pick Rosa because he's a better striker, has better coaching, and has better cardio, but the idea that they grapple a lot, the fight is close, and Hettes lands enough shots and edges it out in the grappling enough to earn a close decision is completely forseeable to me. This fight has split written all over it.

Latifi > O'Connell - Love what's happening with the odds. Latifi is a 1 round fighter. He is strong as a bull and hits like a truck but is very limited because he's not very technical. O'Connell is super durable, active, has great cardio, and just throws down. I think it's a clear case of Latifi early or O'Connell late/decision unless O'Connell lands something perfect early or Latifi shows tremendous IQ and functional improvements that help him fight well for more than 20 second bursts.

Font > Gomez - Excited to see Font's return vs a cute little striker with some nice length and power. I think Font is simply more proven and experienced and has more ways to win. That said, he's coming off a lay-off, this Gomez kid is a wildcard, and therefore I think it should be a fun fight. A smart Font looks to mix it up conservatively on the feet, incorporate grappling, find a weakness, make an adjustment, and finish the fight if Gomez proves to have weaknesses in the cardio, grappling, or IQ categories.

Edilov > Barrasso - Man LHW is just so weak. Edilov has actual hype and is absolutely green and potentially terrible. I watched his fights, he's tough and powerful, above average athlete for 205, but not technical or outstanding at all. He could become great, but I HIGHLY doubt it. The only reason he has hype is because of how shallow the state of 205 is and he has some good training partners. Barrosso is terrible, but Edilov has proven nothing except he likes to look for the finish against sub-standard competition. Does Edilov likely win via murder in rd 1? Yes. Does he also likely look terrible and win or lose a terrible sloppy decision? Yes. Not enough info. No way I'd lay the juice thats out there but I will consider a prop of some sort.

Bets So Far:

+ Show Spoiler +

^ 10 units on Cruz for me. 4 at +130, 6 at +115. (I haven't made a bet this big on MMA in a couple years; pre-fight anyway)

Either I lose one big bet, or you lose many bets.

This should be a fun fight, as long as there's no fluke injury during the fight.

On January 07 2016 23:07 northsails wrote: I love Pettis's fighting style but He is impossible to play at this odds. Actually at close to +300 I will be stabbing Alvarez for sure. He was able to outgrapple Melendez in his last fight with a closed eye, so I see no reason that he's not able to do the same against Pettis. I think the blueprint to beat Showtime is out there and Eddie has the skills to replicate it , especially in a 3 round fight. I can see him taking 2 rounds and winning a decision a lot. There is value there I think.

Well #1) Melendez has been regressing a bit for a little while now...kinda under the radar. The fact that he thought he needed to TRT himself up to beat Eddie and still gassed hard is a pretty bad sign for his future.
#2) Melendez's explosiveness vs Pettis's. Apples and oranges.
#3) That 'blueprint' was probably already there. Hard pressure, grinding style and up in his face the entire time so you're not there at length to be measure by Pettis's ridiculous kicks. Not like coaches going against Pettis were telling their fighters...'hey...let's stay at range and see if we can out kick him.' Doesn't mean that will translate to Eddie. Robot RDA >>>>>> Eddie Alvarez.

- Last thing is that I guess I'd agree Pettis is impossible to play at the odds if he had some questions regarding his chin and toughness. But he dealt with at least a bit of adversity before in WEC and early UFC just fine. All before he took a pretty ridiculous beating from RDA for 5 full rounds without truly being in danger of being finished

On January 08 2016 00:54 soberstone wrote: Mitrione > Browne - Love the under and Mitrione at the odds, I think he can outstrike Browne and if he loses it will be early. Browne really does suck though. I can't believe he was ranked #3 and was a -200 fav over Werdum. He's dangerous and has gotten extremely lucky, but is an incredibly flawed fighter. Atleast with Mitrione, he has a reliable skill set, Browne really just kind of goes out there and looks to do something abnormal yet effective due to his brute athleticism. Rosa > Hettes - Iakim - I'd be hesitant to go big. Hettes is much stronger than Yair in the clinch and on the ground, which is where both of these guys want to be. I pick Rosa because he's a better striker, has better coaching, and has better cardio, but the idea that they grapple a lot, the fight is close, and Hettes lands enough shots and edges it out in the grappling enough to earn a close decision is completely forseeable to me. This fight has split written all over it.

Not sure why I didn't consider the under. I like it but not love. Considering how his last fight went, can see some scenarios of Mitrione almost over thinking it and circling around for first few min w/o committing at all to anything but range/timing feelers. He should know he has the better technical striking so why not let it play out a bit and get a feel for Browne's timing. It does kinda play into Browne's reach advantage but it's not like the guy uses it great. Browne's a notch or three below Stefan Struve in a duel for confused giants who don't use their god given range but he's still up there. But yea even if this scenario plays out, obv could end in a blink in the last two min of the round.

Thought I was going to go on Mitrione too at first. But I'm just going to pass so gl. Too vivid of a memory of me being so confused at his atrocious 'takedown'/decision making in said last fight vs Rothwell.

Didn't think Hettes was that much stronger than Yair but maybe his earlier fights are playing too much in my mind. He was still green and I'm sure he's improved his body strength since now that he's 28. Who is Hettes coached by? Does he travel to other gyms for training/coaching? It's funny. Was just on his wiki page. He apparently is 'head instructor' at a gym in his hometown and where he still mostly lives...and that town is some bumfuck little blot out in rural Pennsylvannia with a population of 5,000. Can't imagine you'll keep improving if you are the king shit at your gym of maybe 40 people...10 of which are possibly old Amish women. Nor would a legit coach come to train him there.

I want RDA to lose so bad lol

I read Conor is fighting him in 197?

On January 08 2016 06:11 whamm! wrote: I want RDA to lose so bad lol I read Conor is fighting him in 197?

Yes, also Holm vs Tate.

Don't know how you guys can be so confident in Pettis. He got absolutely destroyed in his last fight. Dominated completely for 5 rounds, while taking a massive beating. It is hard to recover from that.

On January 08 2016 00:54 soberstone wrote: Dillashaw > Cruz - Will be betting Dillashaw moderately heavy and am just waiting for the odds to narrow. Too many factors to summarize everything but a few things: I think are that the Public will be way off on this one due to the hype and media bias inherently there. People have a ridiculous notion that TJ is a 'snake in the grass' because Conor said it and Lugwig is a shady fellow. That said, wtf would you do if the guy made you a champion. I know what I woud do. If TJ loses a tight decision to Cruz because he's a brilliant fighter who makes more adjustments and out-points for the W, I can't be shocked. If TJ just can't figure him out and Cruz comes in and confuses him for enough of the fight, lands frustrating shots, and TJ breaks mentally, it's a predictable outcome but how can is it be a likely one? If not, does Cruz have other avenues to victory? If Dillashaw loses, I will be real disappointed in my handicapping of this fight, which is much wider than I think it is perceived to be by most. With the exception of the Weidman fight, I've typically done well when agreeing with odd-setters and disagreeing with the public narrative on big fights like this. The narrative is that this is a coin-flip fight. If you watch his last fight vs Mizugaki objectively, he looked slower and it was a very odd exception to the rule that Cruz has pillow fists (it didn't even seem like anything hard hit Mizugaki). When I watched his older fights, he wasn't dealing with anyone on Dillashaw's level offensively and had a massive size advantage vs the only Elite guys he fought. He's the one who's actually never faced real adversity inside the cage. Faber actually made it competitive (which is probably worth noting) but ultimately he just didn't have the tools. Don't let those hype video's fool you, Cruz leaves openings but it would take a very athletic, fast, and diverse striker to catch him. Dillashaw fits the bill. He also matches the cardio and output, is more dangerous, and clearly should be more in his prime. Everyone likes the over but a finish by TJ would not surprise me in the least. If Cruz gets hurt and is forced against the cage, Dillashaw has some rage to let loose.

Either TJ is or not 'snake in the grass', I don't think that is having big weight in moving betting lines. I think what makes people move the line close to pick em now is the recent mental games, which I think Dominick has big advantage in. He looks very confident that he is going to beat TJ and is riling him up pretty easy. I think if he can get Dillashaw to be over emotional and frustrated, he will come in looking for more exchanges and will be picked apart.

Both have great footwork, but TJ is using it more as an offence and Dominick as a defense. I find Cruz more fluid in his transitions. We have seen him against Mighty Mouse who is incredible, that when the speed standing up in some exchanges bothered him, he was easily able to take the fight to the ground and dominate the fight against a elite fighter. Don't agree that Faber was able to make the fight competitive - for me Cruz schooled Faber en route to an easy 50-45.
And if Cruz is not completely shot I'll be really surprised if TJ finishes him. He is not Barao and will not start swinging like an idiot if hurt and his movement is very good to get stuck against the cage.