UFC FN 81: Dillashaw vs. Cruz - Page 2

Pettis seems like an easy bet at any odds above 1.5. Guy can clean out the whole division except RDA and a match with the russian would be interesting. Plus Alvarez's ground game is waaaay too overrated and Pettis is way too dangerous on his back for Alvarez to have the lead there. If Alvarez is smart he will try to push him standing up from the start, but I expect Pettis to be much more improved in that after RDA match

Also northsails considering RDA's shape and the fact that he almost KOed him in the first round and it was super hard for Pettis to recover due to the fact he could barely see with one eye and still managing to get to a decision is huge vs someone like RDA. Alvarez doesn't have the advantage anywhere.

@northsails

I had Cruz > Faber 50-45... and I would also still say the fight was competitive. I think even Cruz would admit that if you sat him down 1 on 1. You want not competitive Faber fights just watch him fight Barao. IMO, it was just a lower level of MMA than we've seen in say TJ vs Barao. Maybe not pure footwork wise, but overall it was 2 obvious gameplans (dont get hit and tune the guy up vs land a right or reactive takedown) where one worked way better than the other.

@iakim

Just for the record, I'm not saying Hettes is even a quarter of the fighter of Yair Rodriguez, I'm just specifically talking about literal strength in grappling, like for instance in the 50/50 position where brute strength plays a large role. Hettes seems to be strong there physically and likes to use his leverage whereas Yair is more the slick Pettis type who is fine with winding up on his back so he can look attack. I think that's a potential problem because Rosa is sort of the workhorse strike-clinch-takedown-pass/guard-GnP type guy and until he develops another reliable skill-set (hes slick off his back too but that ain't reliable unless you are Brian Ortega), if any part of that chain is interrupted, it kinda becomes coin-flippy.

@puertorican

Agree. No flukes or injuries. I hope at least from a fans perspective to get to see top notch Cruz here and it's gonna be fun to see something so fast and technical.

UFC is crazy. TJ seems like a new champion (cuz he is one) yet he's held his belt longer than anyone besides Mighty Mouse currently. Thanks Jon Jones.

Odds out for Blanco - Sanders. Really not happy with this odds. Expected Sanders to be a bigger dog. Might pass on betting this fight.

Currently:
Sanders +105
Blanco -125

@soberstone

Same logic applied TJ had a competitive fight with Joe Soto, who is a complete bum and was fighting on a day notice. I feel like Barao was just a perfect match up for Dillashaw. He was able to pick all his flaws and exploit them over and over again and Barao never adjusted.

Does anyone like Pettis at -310? Probably not right.. thinking about it.

I am on Alvarez at +300. (current odds at betfair exchange). I also like Pettis by submission if I can find a good price.

On January 09 2016 15:04 Nazgul wrote: Does anyone like Pettis at -310? Probably not right.. thinking about it.

Yes, I think he's as close to a lock as you can get in a 3-round lightweight fight in the UFC's upper-echelon.

Forgetting everything else, I can't name one advantage Eddie Alvarez will have and the proverbial hail mary KO or submission is being thrown from the 2 yard line.

If Eddie fights his best fight and Pettis doesn't "show-up", I still think he's the favorite.

OK you convinced me I thought about it some more and I agree. Betting Pettis $465 at -150. Alvarez is overhyped and way too small. Pettis is probably underrated right now as well.

I like Pettis at +120 inside the distance

Pettis rarely wins by decision ( only 3 of 18 wins ) he's one of the best of taking any opportunity and finishing his opponent. Eddie on the other hand gets hit/hurt a lot and presents situations to get finished a lot.

Pettis tends to lose decisions due to being a passive counter striker who doesn't have an exceptionally high volume and gets put against the cage and on his back a bit which judges tend to score too highly.

Of his 3 decision wins, 2 of them were split decisions and the 3rd against Bendo was super close going into the 5th. If not for the showtime kick the might of been a split decision as well.

Abdul-Kerim Edilov tore his meniscus during a final training session and has withdrawn from UFC Fight Night 81.

On January 10 2016 02:48 Stim_Abuser wrote: I like Pettis at +120 inside the distance Pettis rarely wins by decision ( only 3 of 18 wins ) he's one of the best of taking any opportunity and finishing his opponent. Eddie on the other hand gets hit/hurt a lot and presents situations to get finished a lot. Pettis tends to lose decisions due to being a passive counter striker who doesn't have an exceptionally high volume and gets put against the cage and on his back a bit which judges tend to score too highly. Of his 3 decision wins, 2 of them were split decisions and the 3rd against Bendo was super close going into the 5th. If not for the showtime kick the might of been a split decision as well.

Statistically his victories are 1/6 by decision, and the overall win pays rougly 1/3 than inside the distance, so yeah its probably much better to bet that line

On January 09 2016 19:27 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On January 09 2016 15:04 Nazgul wrote: Does anyone like Pettis at -310? Probably not right.. thinking about it. Yes, I think he's as close to a lock as you can get in a 3-round lightweight fight in the UFC's upper-echelon. Forgetting everything else, I can't name one advantage Eddie Alvarez will have and the proverbial hail mary KO or submission is being thrown from the 2 yard line. If Eddie fights his best fight and Pettis doesn't "show-up", I still think he's the favorite.

Hate striker vs striker match-ups when the odds are upwards of +/- 300, so much variance in the strikes. I'd only say locks when it comes to wrestler vs someone who has shitty TDD in a 3 round fight.

I don't mind it as much in the lower weight divisions.

On January 10 2016 03:55 PuertoRican wrote: Abdul-Kerim Edilov tore his meniscus during a final training session and has withdrawn from UFC Fight Night 81.

Mairbek Taisumov is having visa issues. If he can get his visa in time, he will arrive on the 13th, which might hurt his performance.

Since it's still unclear if Taisumov can get a visa, we might lose 2 fights on this card.

Kinda lazy re-watched most of Faber-Cruz 2. Not sure how much of it has to do with Faber, at that point, not being as faded as he is now but Cruz wasn't quite as elusive as I thought I remembered. He was starting to get consistently tagged on his way out of his quick dash in and out exchanges that Cruz does so often. With just Faber's short ranged fists. So not sure why TJ can't start timing it, cover up a sec, then smash Cruz with body kicks on Cruz's way out which would change/lessen Cruz's whole offense. Made me re-appreciate Cruz's underrated chain takedown/wrestling that no one really talks about though. Probably going to change to pass and just root for Cruz

Got Pettis SU and in various parlays with Felder and Rosa and a cpl others. I guess I just don't think enough of Eddie and that's not going to change until he forces me to

I like Wade anyway at +250.

On January 10 2016 21:19 iakim322 wrote: Kinda lazy re-watched most of Faber-Cruz 2. Not sure how much of it has to do with Faber, at that point, not being as faded as he is now but Cruz wasn't quite as elusive as I thought I remembered. He was starting to get consistently tagged on his way out of his quick dash in and out exchanges that Cruz does so often. With just Faber's short ranged fists. So not sure why TJ can't start timing it, cover up a sec, then smash Cruz with body kicks on Cruz's way out which would change/lessen Cruz's whole offense. Made me re-appreciate Cruz's underrated chain takedown/wrestling that no one really talks about though. Probably going to change to pass and just root for Cruz Got Pettis SU and in various parlays with Felder and Rosa and a cpl others. I guess I just don't think enough of Eddie and that's not going to change until he forces me to

Were you picking Cruz before?

Also ended up placing a bet on Rosa by decision. I think he gets it done but I think its via cardio, activity, and Hettes's hittability - if he gets a finish I can only see it being via Hettes breaking down late.

Also, I'm surprised your on Felder. I am too but it seems like most people are completely over him and not willing to lay such juice after the Pearson debacle. I just think Cruikshank offers no real threat or history of any sort of game-planning that makes me hesitate and I still think Paul Felder is really good - just not good at winning rounds when he needs to. Good to see someone else is still willing to go with Felder.

On January 10 2016 21:19 iakim322 wrote: Kinda lazy re-watched most of Faber-Cruz 2. Not sure how much of it has to do with Faber, at that point, not being as faded as he is now but Cruz wasn't quite as elusive as I thought I remembered. He was starting to get consistently tagged on his way out of his quick dash in and out exchanges that Cruz does so often. With just Faber's short ranged fists. So not sure why TJ can't start timing it, cover up a sec, then smash Cruz with body kicks on Cruz's way out which would change/lessen Cruz's whole offense. Made me re-appreciate Cruz's underrated chain takedown/wrestling that no one really talks about though. Probably going to change to pass and just root for Cruz

Yes man agree with you. Cruz to me looks vulnerable to head kicks with his style. At the same time TJ for me is vulnerable to takedowns. So very interesting dynamic. Just hope to see Dominick in top shape. Here is the fight where he puts a grappling clinic ot DJ:

RFA Champion, Mehdi Baghdad, to face Chris Wade on one-weeks notice at UFC Boston; Mairbek Taisumov is out.

On January 10 2016 21:49 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On January 10 2016 21:19 iakim322 wrote: Kinda lazy re-watched most of Faber-Cruz 2. Not sure how much of it has to do with Faber, at that point, not being as faded as he is now but Cruz wasn't quite as elusive as I thought I remembered. He was starting to get consistently tagged on his way out of his quick dash in and out exchanges that Cruz does so often. With just Faber's short ranged fists. So not sure why TJ can't start timing it, cover up a sec, then smash Cruz with body kicks on Cruz's way out which would change/lessen Cruz's whole offense. Made me re-appreciate Cruz's underrated chain takedown/wrestling that no one really talks about though. Probably going to change to pass and just root for Cruz Got Pettis SU and in various parlays with Felder and Rosa and a cpl others. I guess I just don't think enough of Eddie and that's not going to change until he forces me to Were you picking Cruz before? Also ended up placing a bet on Rosa by decision. I think he gets it done but I think its via cardio, activity, and Hettes's hittability - if he gets a finish I can only see it being via Hettes breaking down late. Also, I'm surprised your on Felder. I am too but it seems like most people are completely over him and not willing to lay such juice after the Pearson debacle. I just think Cruikshank offers no real threat or history of any sort of game-planning that makes me hesitate and I still think Paul Felder is really good - just not good at winning rounds when he needs to. Good to see someone else is still willing to go with Felder.

Kinda? But not really. More like first impression, hopeful bias. But also because a lot of the reason we (people in general) are high on TJ are from his two demolitions of Barao...who has his great traits but is about as stationary of a target as a rock compared to Cruz.

I'm thinking and hoping Felder got caught up in himself and his power after everyone jumped on his train based on his highlight Castillo KO. If he just tightens up his technique and exhibits just a bit more patience sometimes, his potential is still elite level which is a lot more than we can say about Cruikshank. If he comes into this fight w/o trying to put together combinations of any kind and continues his one heavy shot rushing after getting tagged....and generally displays no improvement in fight IQ after two technical losses like that, I'll finally be off the wagon. And a bit poorer for having been on that wagon.