- Beneil Dariush was expected to face Mairbek Taisumov at this event. However on December 3, Dariush was forced to pull out of the bout due to injury. He was replaced by Chris Wade. In turn, Taisumov was pulled from the fight during the week leading to the event due to alleged visa issues and was replaced by promotional newcomer Mehdi Baghdad.
- Dennis Bermudez was expected to face Maximo Blanco at this event. However on December 5, Bermudez pulled out of the bout due to a staph infection in his shin. On January 4, it was announced that he was replaced by promotional newcomer Luke Sanders.
- Patrick Williams was expected to face Rob Font at this event. However, Williams was forced to pull out due to injury in late December. He was replaced by promotional newcomer Joey Gomez.
- Jimy Hettes was expected to face Charles Rosa. However on January 10, only 8 days before the event, Hettes pulled out due to injury. He was replaced by promotional newcomer Augusto Mendes.
- Promotional newcomer Abdul-Kerim Edilov was expected to face Francimar Barroso at the event. However, Edilov pulled out of the fight in the days leading up to the event citing a knee injury and was replaced by fellow newcomer Elvis Mutapcic.
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 12/01/2016 09:22
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 07 2016 02:35. Posts 13050
Can't wait for this fight. Cruz is my favorite fighter, no doubt the smartest one around. He has the size advantage, better fight IQ and I believe a smoother transition between striking and grappling. If he comes back in his top form I have no doubt he takes this fight, but that is a big if and i hoped for wider odds to be honest.
Probably the best bet here is the over 4.5 rounds. This fight goes to decision almost all the time, imo. I am also interested to see the odds for Blanco - Sanders. This Luke Sanders guy looks pretty good, he should smash Blanco.
Last edit: 07/01/2016 11:36
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NMcNasty United States. Jan 07 2016 17:31. Posts 2039
Pretty great card, but I really wish Felder v Cruickshank wasn't fight pass :[
Minsk United States. Jan 07 2016 22:47. Posts 1558
Last edit: 07/01/2016 22:56
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iakim322 United States. Jan 07 2016 22:55. Posts 1335
Cruz > TJ - Though I'm not sure how anyone can be so confident on this pick either way unless you just so happen to be in Dominick's camp
Pettis >>>>>> Alvarez - Pettis seems to be fairly intelligent and also seems like he took his whipping from RDA in a positive way. The stuff he should have worked on to be better for an eventual rematch with RDA should directly correlate to negating Eddie's game which never really changes
Not sure I have a real opinion on Browne vs Mitrione. One has great power, chin, and a lengthy athletic frame yet generally sucks at almost all aspects of MMA. The other can actually look really fluid on his feet for a heavyweight but has a questionable chin, questionable decision making, and is still a fish out of water on the ground after several years. Fun matchup I guess
Any thoughts on Rosa vs Hettes? Odds are -178 for Rosa. I think that'll be my heaviest though I haven't decided yet. Not that I think Rosa is actually a really good fighter with a high ceiling. Actually the opposite in regards to ceiling. Just that Rosa was kinda close to imposing his physical strength and will on Yair Rodriguez...who I consider to be leagues above Hettes as a fighter and even stronger too. As long as Rosa isn't too over eager and gets caught in a submission by Hettes off his back, I don't see Hettes fighting off Rosa's takedown and from there, thinking it will be a physical mismatch. Haven't seen Hettes's last fight with Brandao yet though. One thing to note is that this is probably Hettes with his back against the wall very possibly facing a cut if he loses
I love Pettis's fighting style but He is impossible to play at this odds. Actually at close to +300 I will be stabbing Alvarez for sure. He was able to outgrapple Melendez in his last fight with a closed eye, so I see no reason that he's not able to do the same against Pettis.
I think the blueprint to beat Showtime is out there and Eddie has the skills to replicate it , especially in a 3 round fight. I can see him taking 2 rounds and winning a decision a lot. There is value there I think.
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Minsk United States. Jan 08 2016 01:54. Posts 1558
Pettis > Alvarez.
I've learned this lesson already, good offence > good punching bag.
Pressure and rhythm (RDA) is the counter to Pettis's style, not being tough.
Last edit: 08/01/2016 01:54
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soberstone United States. Jan 08 2016 01:54. Posts 2662
Dillashaw > Cruz - Will be betting Dillashaw moderately heavy and am just waiting for the odds to narrow. Too many factors to summarize everything but a few things:
I think are that the Public will be way off on this one due to the hype and media bias inherently there. People have a ridiculous notion that TJ is a 'snake in the grass' because Conor said it and Lugwig is a shady fellow. That said, wtf would you do if the guy made you a champion. I know what I woud do.
If TJ loses a tight decision to Cruz because he's a brilliant fighter who makes more adjustments and out-points for the W, I can't be shocked. If TJ just can't figure him out and Cruz comes in and confuses him for enough of the fight, lands frustrating shots, and TJ breaks mentally, it's a predictable outcome but how can is it be a likely one? If not, does Cruz have other avenues to victory?
If Dillashaw loses, I will be real disappointed in my handicapping of this fight, which is much wider than I think it is perceived to be by most. With the exception of the Weidman fight, I've typically done well when agreeing with odd-setters and disagreeing with the public narrative on big fights like this. The narrative is that this is a coin-flip fight.
If you watch his last fight vs Mizugaki objectively, he looked slower and it was a very odd exception to the rule that Cruz has pillow fists (it didn't even seem like anything hard hit Mizugaki). When I watched his older fights, he wasn't dealing with anyone on Dillashaw's level offensively and had a massive size advantage vs the only Elite guys he fought. He's the one who's actually never faced real adversity inside the cage. Faber actually made it competitive (which is probably worth noting) but ultimately he just didn't have the tools. Don't let those hype video's fool you, Cruz leaves openings but it would take a very athletic, fast, and diverse striker to catch him. Dillashaw fits the bill. He also matches the cardio and output, is more dangerous, and clearly should be more in his prime. Everyone likes the over but a finish by TJ would not surprise me in the least. If Cruz gets hurt and is forced against the cage, Dillashaw has some rage to let loose.
Pettis > Alvarez - Agree with Iakim. Just don't see this going any other way than a Pettis 'W' and probably a finish at some point. Alvarez is tough but Pettis is lethal. This feels like a true lock.
Mitrione > Browne - Love the under and Mitrione at the odds, I think he can outstrike Browne and if he loses it will be early. Browne really does suck though. I can't believe he was ranked #3 and was a -200 fav over Werdum. He's dangerous and has gotten extremely lucky, but is an incredibly flawed fighter. Atleast with Mitrione, he has a reliable skill set, Browne really just kind of goes out there and looks to do something abnormal yet effective due to his brute athleticism.
Pearson > Trinaldo - Like Pearson by decision here. Not overly confident, Pearson is very predictable but solid enough and Trinaldo is more tricky to evaluate but is also ancient and I believe will just get out-volumed by the younger fighter. Pearson's chin is questionable but he showed vs Felder that its not terrible and he just seems to be steadily improving / gaining confidence. Trinaldo can win but I think that would require fighting the perfect fight.
Cote v Saunders - True pickem for me. Really comes down to the cliche who comes in with a better gameplan and fights a better fight. I think the single most likely outcome is Cote by decision via veteran savvy, redic chin, great IQ and cardio. Saunders is dangerous in the clinch and on the ground and I think he'll need to get it there in round 1 and hurt/tire-out/finish Cote before he finds his rhythm in order to win the fight. I think Cote will be better in boxing range and will figure out a way to make a large enough portion of the fight take place there.
Taisumov > Wade - Not sold on Wade, I think this is where it ends for him winning fights via wrestling, toughness, and athleticism. I think the odds were set properly and are getting hefty though. Taisumov is very good, dangerous, and well rounded but like a lot of the great strikers from his region, he is a rhythm fighter. I think in order to win, Wade needs to have improved quite and bit and really be able to grind on Taisumov, and I doubt that happens. If Taisumov gets going early, Wade's probably going to get hurt, tired, sloppy, and fall into a trap wherever the fight is taking place.
Boetsch > Herman - More of a fade then anything. Herman is really old and I just don't really see how he gets it done unless Boetsch out-does himself in the blowing it category.
Blanco > Sanders - Odds not out yet which is odd. Sanders not overly impressive prospect IMO. Just seems well-rounded, tough, solid athlete that seems to possibly hit hard. Blanco is improving and is a would class athlete that has proven much much more.
Felder > Cruickshank - Watched a lot of tape on this one and am very confident. Cruikshank never made the improvements he needed to and Felder, while a bad bet vs Pearson, just ran into a borderline Elite guy in Barboza who is similar to him, and then what proved to be a tough style matchup against solid savvy vet in Pearson. He's better than Cruikshank everywhere, has a better chin, and a better gas tank. Both guys are dangerous but Felder is far more durable.
Rosa > Hettes - Iakim - I'd be hesitant to go big. Hettes is much stronger than Yair in the clinch and on the ground, which is where both of these guys want to be. I pick Rosa because he's a better striker, has better coaching, and has better cardio, but the idea that they grapple a lot, the fight is close, and Hettes lands enough shots and edges it out in the grappling enough to earn a close decision is completely forseeable to me. This fight has split written all over it.
Latifi > O'Connell - Love what's happening with the odds. Latifi is a 1 round fighter. He is strong as a bull and hits like a truck but is very limited because he's not very technical. O'Connell is super durable, active, has great cardio, and just throws down. I think it's a clear case of Latifi early or O'Connell late/decision unless O'Connell lands something perfect early or Latifi shows tremendous IQ and functional improvements that help him fight well for more than 20 second bursts.
Font > Gomez - Excited to see Font's return vs a cute little striker with some nice length and power. I think Font is simply more proven and experienced and has more ways to win. That said, he's coming off a lay-off, this Gomez kid is a wildcard, and therefore I think it should be a fun fight. A smart Font looks to mix it up conservatively on the feet, incorporate grappling, find a weakness, make an adjustment, and finish the fight if Gomez proves to have weaknesses in the cardio, grappling, or IQ categories.
Edilov > Barrasso - Man LHW is just so weak. Edilov has actual hype and is absolutely green and potentially terrible. I watched his fights, he's tough and powerful, above average athlete for 205, but not technical or outstanding at all. He could become great, but I HIGHLY doubt it. The only reason he has hype is because of how shallow the state of 205 is and he has some good training partners. Barrosso is terrible, but Edilov has proven nothing except he likes to look for the finish against sub-standard competition. Does Edilov likely win via murder in rd 1? Yes. Does he also likely look terrible and win or lose a terrible sloppy decision? Yes. Not enough info. No way I'd lay the juice thats out there but I will consider a prop of some sort.
PuertoRican United States. Jan 08 2016 05:33. Posts 13050
^ 10 units on Cruz for me. 4 at +130, 6 at +115. (I haven't made a bet this big on MMA in a couple years; pre-fight anyway)
Either I lose one big bet, or you lose many bets.
This should be a fun fight, as long as there's no fluke injury during the fight.
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 08/01/2016 05:34
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iakim322 United States. Jan 08 2016 06:07. Posts 1335
On January 07 2016 23:07 northsails wrote:
I love Pettis's fighting style but He is impossible to play at this odds. Actually at close to +300 I will be stabbing Alvarez for sure. He was able to outgrapple Melendez in his last fight with a closed eye, so I see no reason that he's not able to do the same against Pettis.
I think the blueprint to beat Showtime is out there and Eddie has the skills to replicate it , especially in a 3 round fight. I can see him taking 2 rounds and winning a decision a lot. There is value there I think.
Well #1) Melendez has been regressing a bit for a little while now...kinda under the radar. The fact that he thought he needed to TRT himself up to beat Eddie and still gassed hard is a pretty bad sign for his future.
#2) Melendez's explosiveness vs Pettis's. Apples and oranges.
#3) That 'blueprint' was probably already there. Hard pressure, grinding style and up in his face the entire time so you're not there at length to be measure by Pettis's ridiculous kicks. Not like coaches going against Pettis were telling their fighters...'hey...let's stay at range and see if we can out kick him.' Doesn't mean that will translate to Eddie. Robot RDA >>>>>> Eddie Alvarez.
- Last thing is that I guess I'd agree Pettis is impossible to play at the odds if he had some questions regarding his chin and toughness. But he dealt with at least a bit of adversity before in WEC and early UFC just fine. All before he took a pretty ridiculous beating from RDA for 5 full rounds without truly being in danger of being finished
Last edit: 08/01/2016 06:54
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iakim322 United States. Jan 08 2016 06:49. Posts 1335
On January 08 2016 00:54 soberstone wrote:
Mitrione > Browne - Love the under and Mitrione at the odds, I think he can outstrike Browne and if he loses it will be early. Browne really does suck though. I can't believe he was ranked #3 and was a -200 fav over Werdum. He's dangerous and has gotten extremely lucky, but is an incredibly flawed fighter. Atleast with Mitrione, he has a reliable skill set, Browne really just kind of goes out there and looks to do something abnormal yet effective due to his brute athleticism.
Rosa > Hettes - Iakim - I'd be hesitant to go big. Hettes is much stronger than Yair in the clinch and on the ground, which is where both of these guys want to be. I pick Rosa because he's a better striker, has better coaching, and has better cardio, but the idea that they grapple a lot, the fight is close, and Hettes lands enough shots and edges it out in the grappling enough to earn a close decision is completely forseeable to me. This fight has split written all over it.
Not sure why I didn't consider the under. I like it but not love. Considering how his last fight went, can see some scenarios of Mitrione almost over thinking it and circling around for first few min w/o committing at all to anything but range/timing feelers. He should know he has the better technical striking so why not let it play out a bit and get a feel for Browne's timing. It does kinda play into Browne's reach advantage but it's not like the guy uses it great. Browne's a notch or three below Stefan Struve in a duel for confused giants who don't use their god given range but he's still up there. But yea even if this scenario plays out, obv could end in a blink in the last two min of the round.
Thought I was going to go on Mitrione too at first. But I'm just going to pass so gl. Too vivid of a memory of me being so confused at his atrocious 'takedown'/decision making in said last fight vs Rothwell.
Didn't think Hettes was that much stronger than Yair but maybe his earlier fights are playing too much in my mind. He was still green and I'm sure he's improved his body strength since now that he's 28. Who is Hettes coached by? Does he travel to other gyms for training/coaching? It's funny. Was just on his wiki page. He apparently is 'head instructor' at a gym in his hometown and where he still mostly lives...and that town is some bumfuck little blot out in rural Pennsylvannia with a population of 5,000. Can't imagine you'll keep improving if you are the king shit at your gym of maybe 40 people...10 of which are possibly old Amish women. Nor would a legit coach come to train him there.
Don't know how you guys can be so confident in Pettis. He got absolutely destroyed in his last fight. Dominated completely for 5 rounds, while taking a massive beating. It is hard to recover from that.
On January 08 2016 00:54 soberstone wrote:
Dillashaw > Cruz - Will be betting Dillashaw moderately heavy and am just waiting for the odds to narrow. Too many factors to summarize everything but a few things:
I think are that the Public will be way off on this one due to the hype and media bias inherently there. People have a ridiculous notion that TJ is a 'snake in the grass' because Conor said it and Lugwig is a shady fellow. That said, wtf would you do if the guy made you a champion. I know what I woud do.
If TJ loses a tight decision to Cruz because he's a brilliant fighter who makes more adjustments and out-points for the W, I can't be shocked. If TJ just can't figure him out and Cruz comes in and confuses him for enough of the fight, lands frustrating shots, and TJ breaks mentally, it's a predictable outcome but how can is it be a likely one? If not, does Cruz have other avenues to victory?
If Dillashaw loses, I will be real disappointed in my handicapping of this fight, which is much wider than I think it is perceived to be by most. With the exception of the Weidman fight, I've typically done well when agreeing with odd-setters and disagreeing with the public narrative on big fights like this. The narrative is that this is a coin-flip fight.
If you watch his last fight vs Mizugaki objectively, he looked slower and it was a very odd exception to the rule that Cruz has pillow fists (it didn't even seem like anything hard hit Mizugaki). When I watched his older fights, he wasn't dealing with anyone on Dillashaw's level offensively and had a massive size advantage vs the only Elite guys he fought. He's the one who's actually never faced real adversity inside the cage. Faber actually made it competitive (which is probably worth noting) but ultimately he just didn't have the tools. Don't let those hype video's fool you, Cruz leaves openings but it would take a very athletic, fast, and diverse striker to catch him. Dillashaw fits the bill. He also matches the cardio and output, is more dangerous, and clearly should be more in his prime. Everyone likes the over but a finish by TJ would not surprise me in the least. If Cruz gets hurt and is forced against the cage, Dillashaw has some rage to let loose.
Either TJ is or not 'snake in the grass', I don't think that is having big weight in moving betting lines. I think what makes people move the line close to pick em now is the recent mental games, which I think Dominick has big advantage in. He looks very confident that he is going to beat TJ and is riling him up pretty easy. I think if he can get Dillashaw to be over emotional and frustrated, he will come in looking for more exchanges and will be picked apart.
Both have great footwork, but TJ is using it more as an offence and Dominick as a defense. I find Cruz more fluid in his transitions. We have seen him against Mighty Mouse who is incredible, that when the speed standing up in some exchanges bothered him, he was easily able to take the fight to the ground and dominate the fight against a elite fighter. Don't agree that Faber was able to make the fight competitive - for me Cruz schooled Faber en route to an easy 50-45.
And if Cruz is not completely shot I'll be really surprised if TJ finishes him. He is not Barao and will not start swinging like an idiot if hurt and his movement is very good to get stuck against the cage.
Pettis seems like an easy bet at any odds above 1.5. Guy can clean out the whole division except RDA and a match with the russian would be interesting. Plus Alvarez's ground game is waaaay too overrated and Pettis is way too dangerous on his back for Alvarez to have the lead there. If Alvarez is smart he will try to push him standing up from the start, but I expect Pettis to be much more improved in that after RDA match
Also northsails considering RDA's shape and the fact that he almost KOed him in the first round and it was super hard for Pettis to recover due to the fact he could barely see with one eye and still managing to get to a decision is huge vs someone like RDA. Alvarez doesn't have the advantage anywhere.
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soberstone United States. Jan 08 2016 20:35. Posts 2662
@northsails
I had Cruz > Faber 50-45... and I would also still say the fight was competitive. I think even Cruz would admit that if you sat him down 1 on 1. You want not competitive Faber fights just watch him fight Barao. IMO, it was just a lower level of MMA than we've seen in say TJ vs Barao. Maybe not pure footwork wise, but overall it was 2 obvious gameplans (dont get hit and tune the guy up vs land a right or reactive takedown) where one worked way better than the other.
@iakim
Just for the record, I'm not saying Hettes is even a quarter of the fighter of Yair Rodriguez, I'm just specifically talking about literal strength in grappling, like for instance in the 50/50 position where brute strength plays a large role. Hettes seems to be strong there physically and likes to use his leverage whereas Yair is more the slick Pettis type who is fine with winding up on his back so he can look attack. I think that's a potential problem because Rosa is sort of the workhorse strike-clinch-takedown-pass/guard-GnP type guy and until he develops another reliable skill-set (hes slick off his back too but that ain't reliable unless you are Brian Ortega), if any part of that chain is interrupted, it kinda becomes coin-flippy.
@puertorican
Agree. No flukes or injuries. I hope at least from a fans perspective to get to see top notch Cruz here and it's gonna be fun to see something so fast and technical.
UFC is crazy. TJ seems like a new champion (cuz he is one) yet he's held his belt longer than anyone besides Mighty Mouse currently. Thanks Jon Jones.
Last edit: 08/01/2016 20:37
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 09 2016 01:23. Posts 13050
Odds out for Blanco - Sanders. Really not happy with this odds. Expected Sanders to be a bigger dog. Might pass on betting this fight.
Currently:
Sanders +105
Blanco -125
@soberstone
Same logic applied TJ had a competitive fight with Joe Soto, who is a complete bum and was fighting on a day notice. I feel like Barao was just a perfect match up for Dillashaw. He was able to pick all his flaws and exploit them over and over again and Barao never adjusted.
I am on Alvarez at +300. (current odds at betfair exchange). I also like Pettis by submission if I can find a good price.
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soberstone United States. Jan 09 2016 20:27. Posts 2662
On January 09 2016 15:04 Nazgul wrote:
Does anyone like Pettis at -310? Probably not right.. thinking about it.
Yes, I think he's as close to a lock as you can get in a 3-round lightweight fight in the UFC's upper-echelon.
Forgetting everything else, I can't name one advantage Eddie Alvarez will have and the proverbial hail mary KO or submission is being thrown from the 2 yard line.
If Eddie fights his best fight and Pettis doesn't "show-up", I still think he's the favorite.
OK you convinced me I thought about it some more and I agree. Betting Pettis $465 at -150. Alvarez is overhyped and way too small. Pettis is probably underrated right now as well.
You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo
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Stim_Abuser United States. Jan 10 2016 03:48. Posts 7499
I like Pettis at +120 inside the distance
Pettis rarely wins by decision ( only 3 of 18 wins ) he's one of the best of taking any opportunity and finishing his opponent. Eddie on the other hand gets hit/hurt a lot and presents situations to get finished a lot.
Pettis tends to lose decisions due to being a passive counter striker who doesn't have an exceptionally high volume and gets put against the cage and on his back a bit which judges tend to score too highly.
Of his 3 decision wins, 2 of them were split decisions and the 3rd against Bendo was super close going into the 5th. If not for the showtime kick the might of been a split decision as well.
Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete
Last edit: 10/01/2016 03:54
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 10 2016 04:55. Posts 13050
Abdul-Kerim Edilov tore his meniscus during a final training session and has withdrawn from UFC Fight Night 81.
On January 10 2016 02:48 Stim_Abuser wrote:
I like Pettis at +120 inside the distance
Pettis rarely wins by decision ( only 3 of 18 wins ) he's one of the best of taking any opportunity and finishing his opponent. Eddie on the other hand gets hit/hurt a lot and presents situations to get finished a lot.
Pettis tends to lose decisions due to being a passive counter striker who doesn't have an exceptionally high volume and gets put against the cage and on his back a bit which judges tend to score too highly.
Of his 3 decision wins, 2 of them were split decisions and the 3rd against Bendo was super close going into the 5th. If not for the showtime kick the might of been a split decision as well.
Statistically his victories are 1/6 by decision, and the overall win pays rougly 1/3 than inside the distance, so yeah its probably much better to bet that line
Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online
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JonnyCosMo United States. Jan 10 2016 09:49. Posts 7292
On January 09 2016 15:04 Nazgul wrote:
Does anyone like Pettis at -310? Probably not right.. thinking about it.
Yes, I think he's as close to a lock as you can get in a 3-round lightweight fight in the UFC's upper-echelon.
Forgetting everything else, I can't name one advantage Eddie Alvarez will have and the proverbial hail mary KO or submission is being thrown from the 2 yard line.
If Eddie fights his best fight and Pettis doesn't "show-up", I still think he's the favorite.
Hate striker vs striker match-ups when the odds are upwards of +/- 300, so much variance in the strikes. I'd only say locks when it comes to wrestler vs someone who has shitty TDD in a 3 round fight.
Everyone needs to see that you are king of the castle - PoorUser
I don't mind it as much in the lower weight divisions.
You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 10 2016 21:38. Posts 13050
On January 10 2016 03:55 PuertoRican wrote:
Abdul-Kerim Edilov tore his meniscus during a final training session and has withdrawn from UFC Fight Night 81.
Mairbek Taisumov is having visa issues. If he can get his visa in time, he will arrive on the 13th, which might hurt his performance.
Since it's still unclear if Taisumov can get a visa, we might lose 2 fights on this card.
Rekrul is a newb
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iakim322 United States. Jan 10 2016 22:19. Posts 1335
Kinda lazy re-watched most of Faber-Cruz 2. Not sure how much of it has to do with Faber, at that point, not being as faded as he is now but Cruz wasn't quite as elusive as I thought I remembered. He was starting to get consistently tagged on his way out of his quick dash in and out exchanges that Cruz does so often. With just Faber's short ranged fists. So not sure why TJ can't start timing it, cover up a sec, then smash Cruz with body kicks on Cruz's way out which would change/lessen Cruz's whole offense. Made me re-appreciate Cruz's underrated chain takedown/wrestling that no one really talks about though. Probably going to change to pass and just root for Cruz
Got Pettis SU and in various parlays with Felder and Rosa and a cpl others. I guess I just don't think enough of Eddie and that's not going to change until he forces me to
soberstone United States. Jan 10 2016 22:49. Posts 2662
On January 10 2016 21:19 iakim322 wrote:
Kinda lazy re-watched most of Faber-Cruz 2. Not sure how much of it has to do with Faber, at that point, not being as faded as he is now but Cruz wasn't quite as elusive as I thought I remembered. He was starting to get consistently tagged on his way out of his quick dash in and out exchanges that Cruz does so often. With just Faber's short ranged fists. So not sure why TJ can't start timing it, cover up a sec, then smash Cruz with body kicks on Cruz's way out which would change/lessen Cruz's whole offense. Made me re-appreciate Cruz's underrated chain takedown/wrestling that no one really talks about though. Probably going to change to pass and just root for Cruz
Got Pettis SU and in various parlays with Felder and Rosa and a cpl others. I guess I just don't think enough of Eddie and that's not going to change until he forces me to
Were you picking Cruz before?
Also ended up placing a bet on Rosa by decision. I think he gets it done but I think its via cardio, activity, and Hettes's hittability - if he gets a finish I can only see it being via Hettes breaking down late.
Also, I'm surprised your on Felder. I am too but it seems like most people are completely over him and not willing to lay such juice after the Pearson debacle. I just think Cruikshank offers no real threat or history of any sort of game-planning that makes me hesitate and I still think Paul Felder is really good - just not good at winning rounds when he needs to. Good to see someone else is still willing to go with Felder.
On January 10 2016 21:19 iakim322 wrote:
Kinda lazy re-watched most of Faber-Cruz 2. Not sure how much of it has to do with Faber, at that point, not being as faded as he is now but Cruz wasn't quite as elusive as I thought I remembered. He was starting to get consistently tagged on his way out of his quick dash in and out exchanges that Cruz does so often. With just Faber's short ranged fists. So not sure why TJ can't start timing it, cover up a sec, then smash Cruz with body kicks on Cruz's way out which would change/lessen Cruz's whole offense. Made me re-appreciate Cruz's underrated chain takedown/wrestling that no one really talks about though. Probably going to change to pass and just root for Cruz
Yes man agree with you. Cruz to me looks vulnerable to head kicks with his style. At the same time TJ for me is vulnerable to takedowns. So very interesting dynamic. Just hope to see Dominick in top shape. Here is the fight where he puts a grappling clinic ot DJ:
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 11 2016 00:27. Posts 13050
RFA Champion, Mehdi Baghdad, to face Chris Wade on one-weeks notice at UFC Boston; Mairbek Taisumov is out.
Rekrul is a newb
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iakim322 United States. Jan 11 2016 01:12. Posts 1335
On January 10 2016 21:19 iakim322 wrote:
Kinda lazy re-watched most of Faber-Cruz 2. Not sure how much of it has to do with Faber, at that point, not being as faded as he is now but Cruz wasn't quite as elusive as I thought I remembered. He was starting to get consistently tagged on his way out of his quick dash in and out exchanges that Cruz does so often. With just Faber's short ranged fists. So not sure why TJ can't start timing it, cover up a sec, then smash Cruz with body kicks on Cruz's way out which would change/lessen Cruz's whole offense. Made me re-appreciate Cruz's underrated chain takedown/wrestling that no one really talks about though. Probably going to change to pass and just root for Cruz
Got Pettis SU and in various parlays with Felder and Rosa and a cpl others. I guess I just don't think enough of Eddie and that's not going to change until he forces me to
Were you picking Cruz before?
Also ended up placing a bet on Rosa by decision. I think he gets it done but I think its via cardio, activity, and Hettes's hittability - if he gets a finish I can only see it being via Hettes breaking down late.
Also, I'm surprised your on Felder. I am too but it seems like most people are completely over him and not willing to lay such juice after the Pearson debacle. I just think Cruikshank offers no real threat or history of any sort of game-planning that makes me hesitate and I still think Paul Felder is really good - just not good at winning rounds when he needs to. Good to see someone else is still willing to go with Felder.
Kinda? But not really. More like first impression, hopeful bias. But also because a lot of the reason we (people in general) are high on TJ are from his two demolitions of Barao...who has his great traits but is about as stationary of a target as a rock compared to Cruz.
I'm thinking and hoping Felder got caught up in himself and his power after everyone jumped on his train based on his highlight Castillo KO. If he just tightens up his technique and exhibits just a bit more patience sometimes, his potential is still elite level which is a lot more than we can say about Cruikshank. If he comes into this fight w/o trying to put together combinations of any kind and continues his one heavy shot rushing after getting tagged....and generally displays no improvement in fight IQ after two technical losses like that, I'll finally be off the wagon. And a bit poorer for having been on that wagon.
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iakim322 United States. Jan 11 2016 01:18. Posts 1335
On January 10 2016 21:19 iakim322 wrote:
Kinda lazy re-watched most of Faber-Cruz 2. Not sure how much of it has to do with Faber, at that point, not being as faded as he is now but Cruz wasn't quite as elusive as I thought I remembered. He was starting to get consistently tagged on his way out of his quick dash in and out exchanges that Cruz does so often. With just Faber's short ranged fists. So not sure why TJ can't start timing it, cover up a sec, then smash Cruz with body kicks on Cruz's way out which would change/lessen Cruz's whole offense. Made me re-appreciate Cruz's underrated chain takedown/wrestling that no one really talks about though. Probably going to change to pass and just root for Cruz
Yes man agree with you. Cruz to me looks vulnerable to head kicks with his style. At the same time TJ for me is vulnerable to takedowns. So very interesting dynamic. Just hope to see Dominick in top shape. Here is the fight where he puts a grappling clinic ot DJ:
Yea thinking more about it and watching previous fights along with Sober being so sure about the standup, been agreeing more and more that Cruz is going to be vulnerable to TJ's athleticism no matter how much Dom moves. Going to be really interesting if it hits the ground though. Like I said I think Dom's chain takedowns and wrestling is underrated. I forgot that Dom actually started his beatdown of Mizugaki with a dash in punch into a really quick duck in, takedown before Mizugaki had even really registered he'd been tagged
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Stim_Abuser United States. Jan 11 2016 01:56. Posts 7499
Not to say Cruz can't take him down because Cruz is the best in the business, but TJ has never been taken down in his entire career. How does he look susceptible to takedowns again?
Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete
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Minsk United States. Jan 11 2016 02:13. Posts 1558
I would rather take the safer Pettis ML than Pettis ITD, both may be good, but I would take ML before ITD, to me its well known that good offense > really good punching bag, that is very clear.
Does the good offense collapse the punching bag? Thats ambiguous, and I cant remember seeing a better punching bag than Alvarez.
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 11 2016 02:26. Posts 13050
On January 11 2016 00:56 Stim_Abuser wrote:
Not to say Cruz can't take him down because Cruz is the best in the business, but TJ has never been taken down in his entire career. How does he look susceptible to takedowns again?
TJ hasn't looked susceptible to take downs yet, imo.
TJ has only faced 1 wrestler in his 10-fight UFC career, and it was against Joe Soto, who took the 5-round fight on 1-day notice. They had trained together not long before that specific UFC card, which was the ironic part of it all.
On the flip side, Cruz has taken down the following fighters with wrestling in their arsenal in his WEC/UFC career: Faber, Benavidez, Jorgensen, and Demetrious Johnson.
p.s. Jimy Hettes looks to be injured, so the UFC is trying to find a replacement opponent for Charles Rosa.
why would it be interesting if it hits the ground? fuck the ground these are not BJJ gods... they have possibly the best footwork in mma, I want to see them strike.
Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 11 2016 08:19. Posts 13050
On January 11 2016 00:56 Stim_Abuser wrote:
Not to say Cruz can't take him down because Cruz is the best in the business, but TJ has never been taken down in his entire career. How does he look susceptible to takedowns again?
Did not express myself correctly. Cruz has not been kicked in the head also. This is just a dynamic I think we are going to see in the fight. TJ is a good wrestler but with his aggressive attacks and kicks that he throws and Cruz timing I see him being taken down, because that is the best way for Dom to win the fight. I give TJ edge if they just keep it standing, but Dom mixes thing a lot better.
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Stim_Abuser United States. Jan 11 2016 12:56. Posts 7499
On January 11 2016 07:07 Baalim wrote:
why would it be interesting if it hits the ground? fuck the ground these are not BJJ gods... they have possibly the best footwork in mma, I want to see them strike.
While I don't wanna see much groundwork either, it is a pleasure to watch TJ transition from striking into wrestling
Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete
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iakim322 United States. Jan 12 2016 06:00. Posts 1335
Both have good striking into takedown/wrestling transitions. And yeah I want to see them strike too and clearly that will happen. But it'd be interesting if it hits the ground to see who really has the upper hand there because I don't think really educated guesses can be made about that given what we know
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 12 2016 09:09. Posts 13050
These are the 3 guys who are coming in on short notice for Jimy Hettes, Mairbek Taisumov, and Abdul-Kerim Edilov.
Sucks that those fights fell off but selfishly happy because I really didn't have much action on em and maybe there will be some bad lines by Kalikas.
Will be studying those 3 tonight and their respective match-ups but I will say off the bat that its good to see Mutapcic getting a shot because he's got some quality wins.
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 13 2016 23:42. Posts 13050
Rekrul is a newb
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iakim322 United States. Jan 14 2016 06:00. Posts 1335
These are the 3 guys who are coming in on short notice for Jimy Hettes, Mairbek Taisumov, and Abdul-Kerim Edilov.
Sucks that those fights fell off but selfishly happy because I really didn't have much action on em and maybe there will be some bad lines by Kalikas.
Will be studying those 3 tonight and their respective match-ups but I will say off the bat that its good to see Mutapcic getting a shot because he's got some quality wins.
Hurry up with this analysis homework on new guys man. Someone's got DK lineups to make.
What's known about Joey Gomez? Besides the fact that his record is all first round KO's vs a bunch of nobodies. I really liked Font from just the few minutes I've seen of him.
- > Nm. Read what was posted on first page. Guess it's not a surprise not much is known about him given the short actual ring time.
Last edit: 14/01/2016 06:03
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iakim322 United States. Jan 14 2016 06:45. Posts 1335
On January 11 2016 07:19 PuertoRican wrote:
They need to have this face off kinda segment with Conor. TJ just doesn't work
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 14 2016 21:41. Posts 13050
Augusto Mendes is now out due to injury, or something...
His replacement isn't 100% confirmed yet, but there was a Twitter mention that some guy named Kyle Bochniak is replacing Mendes. Kyle fought 6 days ago and won, and he lives in Boston, which is where this UFC card is being held at.
I find this card very difficult to bet on, I want to bet on Pettis but for that odds I need to make a parlay of at least one more bet. I will have to investigate more the "unknown" fighters.
These are the 3 guys who are coming in on short notice for Jimy Hettes, Mairbek Taisumov, and Abdul-Kerim Edilov.
Sucks that those fights fell off but selfishly happy because I really didn't have much action on em and maybe there will be some bad lines by Kalikas.
Will be studying those 3 tonight and their respective match-ups but I will say off the bat that its good to see Mutapcic getting a shot because he's got some quality wins.
Hurry up with this analysis homework on new guys man. Someone's got DK lineups to make.
What's known about Joey Gomez? Besides the fact that his record is all first round KO's vs a bunch of nobodies. I really liked Font from just the few minutes I've seen of him.
- > Nm. Read what was posted on first page. Guess it's not a surprise not much is known about him given the short actual ring time.
Disclaimer, I regret the ITD bet on Font. I think between him coming off the layoff and Gomez being super dangerous (he's actually supposed to be a pretty legit blue-chipper and the tape backs that up - great jab, vicious power on the counter, etc) this has a great chance to be a competitive fight that goes the distance. I still like Font where I got him at -200 because I don't think (although I can't be sure) Gomez can beat him a sustainable percentage of the time, but I just think its closer than I initially did. I think the correct play if probably at this point where the odds are and the DK price is is to pass on the fight completely and just try and gather information for future fights.
There is actually one Gomez play I like but I need to wait for my degenerate football bets to finish before I can make more bets.
As far as Mutapcic, I just can't bet him against the much stronger and lamer Barroso. I want to, but I think the odds are about right.
As far as Rosa's third opponent (wtf), I'm gonna study him now, I can't imagine this isn't a layup for Rosa though, he's being a real company guy here and I think at this point they are fine with giving him a complete layup here (I could be wrong, but this other guys resume is trash). This may be a rare instance where I bet a submission prop (in general I think submissions in 2016 are more a product of gas-tank issues / fighters breaking / unpredictable submissions to finish off fighters hurt by strikes etc).
Tangent here, but the days of betting pure submission fighters to win by submission profitably are long gone. Position > submission is such an important concept in fighting smart and to be frank, there are very few fighters that are so good at no gi grappling (the Palhareses, Jacare's, Oliveria's and Ortegas of the world are rare) that one can't simply gameplan properly to be ready to defend the normal TD-GuardPass-Wait-for-Mistake-Capitalize and submit. It just doesn't happen that way anymore. While striking offense in MMA is far ahead of striking defense, submission defense is far ahead of submission offense.
To my point, other than Neil Magney, Damien Maia hasn't submitted anyone since 2009. It's not that he's unwilling to go for subs, it's just that he's too intelligent to commit to them on guys that can potentially whether the storm and beat up a gassed out guy who went all-in on a half-sunk in guillotine, etc. I guess all I'm saying are that submission's these days are just a product of happen-stance within fights, not stylistic matchups on paper.
Sorry for the rant, but I'm just thinking as I type. I think this is part of what makes what Weidman did vs Rockhold in round 1 so fucking retarded. Not the spinning back-kick, he already deserved to lose at that point. It was the initial taking of Luke Rockholds back at the very beginning of the fight that made absolutely ZERO sense. He completely gassed himself out for no reason trying to work for some pipedream standing RNC on the physically superior guy. What a retard god-dammit. I can forgive a terrible spinning back-kick when you are bludgeoned, exhausted, and not thinking clearly, but I will never forgive his gameplan. And I love the man. I said on this forum before that fucking fight that one thing Weidman needs to not do is initiate grappling exchanges early when both guys were fresh, and what does he do? SMFH. And no, I'm not saying Weidman wins the fight if he plays it smart, I just think we would have seen an epic 5-round war and instead we got a disappointing fight in terms of excitement and technique (other than Weidman getting pulverized defenseless for a minute straight)
Other bets I'm not feeling great about making are Cote Decision at +250 (just way too many things other than that can happen for that to profitable) and putting Blanco in parlays. I'm personally not that impressed with what I've seen of Sanders and think Blanco is constantly improving but apparently people in the 'know' disagree and are leaning Sanders - thinking he'll be a top 10 BW within a year. We'll see.
Super happy with Pettis straight (free money), Pettis ITD at +140, Mitrione at +145, O'Connel at +190 (will be throwing more on him at +230 if weighins dont show me anything to re-think), Boetsch at -185, and Dillashaw in all forms.
/endrant
Last edit: 16/01/2016 01:43
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 16 2016 03:47. Posts 13050
These are the 3 guys who are coming in on short notice for Jimy Hettes, Mairbek Taisumov, and Abdul-Kerim Edilov.
Sucks that those fights fell off but selfishly happy because I really didn't have much action on em and maybe there will be some bad lines by Kalikas.
Will be studying those 3 tonight and their respective match-ups but I will say off the bat that its good to see Mutapcic getting a shot because he's got some quality wins.
Hurry up with this analysis homework on new guys man. Someone's got DK lineups to make.
What's known about Joey Gomez? Besides the fact that his record is all first round KO's vs a bunch of nobodies. I really liked Font from just the few minutes I've seen of him.
- > Nm. Read what was posted on first page. Guess it's not a surprise not much is known about him given the short actual ring time.
Disclaimer, I regret the ITD bet on Font. I think between him coming off the layoff and Gomez being super dangerous (he's actually supposed to be a pretty legit blue-chipper and the tape backs that up - great jab, vicious power on the counter, etc) this has a great chance to be a competitive fight that goes the distance. I still like Font where I got him at -200 because I don't think (although I can't be sure) Gomez can beat him a sustainable percentage of the time, but I just think its closer than I initially did. I think the correct play if probably at this point where the odds are and the DK price is is to pass on the fight completely and just try and gather information for future fights.
There is actually one Gomez play I like but I need to wait for my degenerate football bets to finish before I can make more bets.
Font/Gomez are former training partners.
I expect to see a hug, or a handshake and a hug during the weigh-ins.
These are the 3 guys who are coming in on short notice for Jimy Hettes, Mairbek Taisumov, and Abdul-Kerim Edilov.
Sucks that those fights fell off but selfishly happy because I really didn't have much action on em and maybe there will be some bad lines by Kalikas.
Will be studying those 3 tonight and their respective match-ups but I will say off the bat that its good to see Mutapcic getting a shot because he's got some quality wins.
Hurry up with this analysis homework on new guys man. Someone's got DK lineups to make.
What's known about Joey Gomez? Besides the fact that his record is all first round KO's vs a bunch of nobodies. I really liked Font from just the few minutes I've seen of him.
- > Nm. Read what was posted on first page. Guess it's not a surprise not much is known about him given the short actual ring time.
Disclaimer, I regret the ITD bet on Font. I think between him coming off the layoff and Gomez being super dangerous (he's actually supposed to be a pretty legit blue-chipper and the tape backs that up - great jab, vicious power on the counter, etc) this has a great chance to be a competitive fight that goes the distance. I still like Font where I got him at -200 because I don't think (although I can't be sure) Gomez can beat him a sustainable percentage of the time, but I just think its closer than I initially did. I think the correct play if probably at this point where the odds are and the DK price is is to pass on the fight completely and just try and gather information for future fights.
There is actually one Gomez play I like but I need to wait for my degenerate football bets to finish before I can make more bets.
Font/Gomez are former training partners.
I expect to see a hug, or a handshake and a hug during the weigh-ins.
Didn't know that. Definitely laying off this fight then
These are the 3 guys who are coming in on short notice for Jimy Hettes, Mairbek Taisumov, and Abdul-Kerim Edilov.
Sucks that those fights fell off but selfishly happy because I really didn't have much action on em and maybe there will be some bad lines by Kalikas.
Will be studying those 3 tonight and their respective match-ups but I will say off the bat that its good to see Mutapcic getting a shot because he's got some quality wins.
Hurry up with this analysis homework on new guys man. Someone's got DK lineups to make.
What's known about Joey Gomez? Besides the fact that his record is all first round KO's vs a bunch of nobodies. I really liked Font from just the few minutes I've seen of him.
- > Nm. Read what was posted on first page. Guess it's not a surprise not much is known about him given the short actual ring time.
Tangent here, but the days of betting pure submission fighters to win by submission profitably are long gone. Position > submission is such an important concept in fighting smart and to be frank, there are very few fighters that are so good at no gi grappling (the Palhareses, Jacare's, Oliveria's and Ortegas of the world are rare) that one can't simply gameplan properly to be ready to defend the normal TD-GuardPass-Wait-for-Mistake-Capitalize and submit. It just doesn't happen that way anymore. While striking offense in MMA is far ahead of striking defense, submission defense is far ahead of submission offense.
To my point, other than Neil Magney, Damien Maia hasn't submitted anyone since 2009. It's not that he's unwilling to go for subs, it's just that he's too intelligent to commit to them on guys that can potentially whether the storm and beat up a gassed out guy who went all-in on a half-sunk in guillotine, etc. I guess all I'm saying are that submission's these days are just a product of happen-stance within fights, not stylistic matchups on paper.
Sorry for the rant, but I'm just thinking as I type. I think this is part of what makes what Weidman did vs Rockhold in round 1 so fucking retarded. Not the spinning back-kick, he already deserved to lose at that point. It was the initial taking of Luke Rockholds back at the very beginning of the fight that made absolutely ZERO sense. He completely gassed himself out for no reason trying to work for some pipedream standing RNC on the physically superior guy. What a retard god-dammit. I can forgive a terrible spinning back-kick when you are bludgeoned, exhausted, and not thinking clearly, but I will never forgive his gameplan. And I love the man. I said on this forum before that fucking fight that one thing Weidman needs to not do is initiate grappling exchanges early when both guys were fresh, and what does he do? SMFH. And no, I'm not saying Weidman wins the fight if he plays it smart, I just think we would have seen an epic 5-round war and instead we got a disappointing fight in terms of excitement and technique (other than Weidman getting pulverized defenseless for a minute straight)
“He showed me how, at one point in my fight with (Kelvin) Gastelum, I had taken his back but then got in too much of a rush to finish, and ended up losing the position,” Magny said.
---
Not such a bad rant. Because even the guy himself, Maia, agrees with you. I read this and remembered I had read the above a week or two ago. And it's something that I think I've thought about. My thoughts were slightly different...that pure submission fighters are just weaker overall now because most most everyone is at least semi competent with submission defense now which is really just logical as the sport has progressed. Rarely see a guy that still makes glaring maneuvering mistakes on the ground anymore unless they were already hurt by a strike. Brandon Thatch comes to mind as being really clumsy on the ground. Mitrione too though he entered the sport late. On the offensive side too, lotta fighters are just more aware in general of overexposure on top and to ground and pound with at least some technique instead of just trying to go ape shit only to lose position or get caught.
Werdum prob realized this a cpl years ago (ok prob also the fact that he played dead on the ground voluntarily vs Overeem and got absolutely no takers) and decided he had to finally really go learn striking. Then, he kinda became a monster.
I'm still sad about Weidman. Let's stop bringing that up. He'll get 'em next time.
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iakim322 United States. Jan 16 2016 06:19. Posts 1335
They need to have this face off kinda segment with Conor. TJ just doesn't work
Cruz trying to get in Dillashaw's head. And it's working, I think.
I don't really. Unless TJ really is not very intelligent like Cruz is saying. Cruz was always going to try do this kinda stuff to TJ so it shoulda been seen a mile away. A bit over the top by promo/fight mode Cruz though. He's really a great talker and analyst when he's on the Fox show. Probably the best they have.
^ True. And Cruz is going for a great come back. I think motivation counts for a lot in this fight. And could give Cruz the edge. But then again he's been out of the cage for a long time so we'll have to wait and see.
On January 07 2016 20:14 Baalim wrote:
this is like Superman vs bizarro Superman
Yup. But after watching lots of videos of those two it looks like Cruz has better footwork in his game. And way more unpredictable than Dillashaw. But less power.
Basically, Florian watched a video breakdown of a boxing legend who fought 60+ years ago and used the author's words in that breakdown word-for-word, and applied it to his breakdown of Dominick Cruz without giving any credit. If you read the community members responses, you will see Florian wasn't as sorry as he said he was.
Fox Sports suspended Florian for an unknown amount of time, and he won't be doing commentary tomorrow for the Cruz vs. Dillashaw card.
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 16 2016 21:38. Posts 13050
On January 07 2016 03:28 TianYuan wrote:
Hype.
T.J. Dillashaw (135) vs. Dominick Cruz (135)
Eddie Alvarez (155.5) vs. Anthony Pettis (155.5)
Travis Browne (238) vs. Matt Mitrione (249)
Ross Pearson (155) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (155.5)
Patrick Cote (171) vs. Ben Saunders (170)
Medhi Baghdad (156) vs. Chris Wade (155.5)
Tim Boetsch (206) vs. Ed Herman (204.5)
Maximo Blanco (146) vs. Luke Sanders (145.5)
Daron Cruickshank (155) vs. Paul Felder (155.5)
Ilir Latifi (205) vs. Sean O’Connell (205.5)
Kyle Bochniak (145) vs. Charles Rosa (145.5)
Rob Font (135) vs. Joey Gomez (135)
Francimar Barroso (205) vs. Elvis Mutapcic (201)
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 16/01/2016 22:46
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 17 2016 01:32. Posts 13050
Invicta FC 15: Cyborg vs. Ibragimova
Date: January 16, 2016
Time: 6pm PST / 9pm EST
Cristiane Justino vs. Daria Ibragimova
Livia Renata Souza vs. DeAnna Bennett
Colleen Schneider vs. Raquel Pa'aluhi
Amber Brown vs. Shino VanHoose
Lacey Schuckman vs. Mizuki Inoue
Angela Hill vs. Alida Gray
Megan Anderson vs. Amber Leibrock
nice! when did the 3rd BJJ Scout Cruz case study video come out?
anyway, I think Dillashaw is gonna play it safe and won't attempt a KO making this one of the most boring fights ever. i hope I'm really wrong though...
We still don't know if Cruz is the Cruz pre-injury. One minute fight over a year ago didn't really show much, was kind of a fast destruction.
offtopic: Dillashaw feels so antipathetic
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 17 2016 03:09. Posts 13050
On January 17 2016 01:01 Spitfiree wrote:
We still don't know if Cruz is the Cruz pre-injury. One minute fight over a year ago didn't really show much, was kind of a fast destruction.
offtopic: Dillashaw feels so antipathetic
I think Cruz will be an improved version of his old self. He'll have added new dimensions to his game to fit TJ's style of fighting, which is something Cruz loves to do (figuring out/breaking down his opponents is what he used to do to adjust to their styles pre-fight and during the fight).
The fight will probably be close and entertaining, but TJ is likely gonna be wrong if he still thinks the same old Cruz will show up.
On January 17 2016 00:33 lucky331 wrote:
nice! when did the 3rd BJJ Scout Cruz case study video come out?
Today (Saturday).
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 17/01/2016 03:10
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Minsk United States. Jan 17 2016 19:54. Posts 1558
Cruz ML
Pettis ML
those are easy.
Mitrione ML
Felder ML
those I'm more worried about.
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Stim_Abuser United States. Jan 17 2016 20:56. Posts 7499
I got Cruz. They never faced anyone like each other and I think it's so evenly matched that I think Cruz much higher fight IQ will allow him to adjust better in the fight and win rounds.
Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 17 2016 21:36. Posts 13050
I have a good amount of money tied up in 4 bets or so, at least for my bankroll size, but I didn't see a lot of fights on this card where I wanted to go big pre-fight, especially with 1/3 of the card being short notice fighters.
Cruz +130 $40 for $52
Cruz +115 $60 for $69
Pettis/Alvarez ITD -115 $11.50 for $10
Browne -148 $29.60 for $20
Trinaldo decision +300 $5 for $15
Cote +100 $20 for $20
Wade/Baghdad ITD +145 $5 for $7.25
Blanco -130 $19.50 for $15
Latifi -205 $61.50 for $30
Latifi/O’Connell u1.5 +125 $15 for $18.75
Felder/Cruickshank u1.5 +155 $5 for $7.75
Felder/Cruickshank ITD -130 $13 for $10
Rosa/Bochniak u2.5 -125 $12.50 for $10
Font submission +1200 $5 for $60
Font/Gomez u1.5 +105 $10 for $10.50
Parlay $20 for $34.64: Pettis, Felder, Taisumov (Taisumov’s fight is cancelled)
Rekrul is a newb
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iakim322 United States. Jan 17 2016 22:40. Posts 1335
Ed Herman should be a walking corpse by now but he looked pretty good on the scale. Making me want to pull back on Boetsch
1
soberstone United States. Jan 18 2016 00:48. Posts 2662
BOOM.
Rob Font. His distance and footwork is really getting there. Super impressive comeback performance. Already as likely as anyone to give the winner or Dillashaw v Cruz a good fight. His grappling pressure seemed a little soft but I'm gonna chalk that up to Gomez being good.
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soberstone United States. Jan 18 2016 00:51. Posts 2662
On January 17 2016 21:40 iakim322 wrote:
Ed Herman should be a walking corpse by now but he looked pretty good on the scale. Making me want to pull back on Boetsch
I was thinking the same thing, especially because I can buy-out free.
Added this as a hedge instead tho cuz I'm greedy:
$50.00 $350.71 Pending 2 Team Parlay
Pending 1/17/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1507 Herman wins by 3 round decision +410* vs Not Herman by 3 round decision
Pending 1/17/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2042 Rosa points handicap -3½ -175* vs Bochniak points handicap
+ Rosa/Dillashaw PL and Rosa Sub Prop
Last edit: 18/01/2016 00:54
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 18 2016 00:51. Posts 13050
Joey Gomez was too nervous in the cage. Relatively easy win for Font.
Rekrul is a newb
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soberstone United States. Jan 18 2016 01:15. Posts 2662
Haha clutch 30-27 for Rosa. Dunno who scored round 1 for him but thanks to that idiot :D
Sick ass fight
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 18 2016 01:18. Posts 13050
That was the first time Charles Rosa has ever won a decision.
iakim322 United States. Jan 18 2016 01:50. Posts 1335
Damn. Good job corner man. He did his job
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 18 2016 01:51. Posts 13050
Nice win for Felder. Too bad he didn't look that great before that, imo.
Rekrul is a newb
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iakim322 United States. Jan 18 2016 02:00. Posts 1335
He really didn't. Definitely going to be on the other side if they move Felder back up and he faces a durable, technical striker. Felder by finish against sub top 10 competition should still be good though. Guy is really tough and keeps coming even with his technical deficiencies
PuertoRican United States. Jan 18 2016 03:19. Posts 13050
Time for Tim Boetsch to hang up his gloves. He'll be released from the UFC tomorrow.
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 18 2016 03:40. Posts 13050
Cote was well aware of Saunders' chin. He did a good job at staying patient and exploiting it in round 2. He didn't even need to land a big overhand right like he usually lands on guys to rock them.
PuertoRican United States. Jan 18 2016 04:44. Posts 13050
Nice win for Trinaldo, he earned it.
Rekrul is a newb
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Minsk United States. Jan 18 2016 04:45. Posts 1558
In retrospect Trindaldo was a very easy bet, I was thinking about it but didn't.
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 18 2016 05:34. Posts 13050
Mitrione didn't want the fight to stop and be a No Contest because it's the last fight on his contract, and he held out and hoped to beat Browne so he could get more money.
Rekrul is a newb
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Minsk United States. Jan 18 2016 05:35. Posts 1558
Out in the street, they call it Mmuurdaa
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 18 2016 05:48. Posts 13050
Minsk United States. Jan 18 2016 05:50. Posts 1558
Well that was a queer fight. I will say it again, that that fence takedown is unbalanced in MMA, with their current rules and round system there is no fucking counter, you either break even or you lose to it. The most awful fight I was forced to watch in a while, that fence takedown aspect needs to be fixed. It's either neutral or up for an aggressor.
Minsk United States. Jan 18 2016 05:55. Posts 1558
I've seen people use it to pretty much cancel out final rounds when they're ahead, to survive when they can't really stand, in all sorts of ridiculous ways.
Thing is its not a real fight technique either, have you ever seen a fight with 5-10 minutes of that against a wall? If you take out some sports rules it becomes completely un-viable. So if its a sport, fix the rules to make them balanced. There is currently no viable counter to that, it ruins the sport a lot.
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flounder44 United States. Jan 18 2016 05:56. Posts 916
lol fuck pettis for not doing shit and fuck alvarez for calling out champ after that performance/other performances
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jvilla777 Australia. Jan 18 2016 05:58. Posts 1348
That fight sucked, fuckin pettis and fuckin Alvarez lay n pray shit fuckk so tilted right now
longple: ur missing the point! this is an attempt to get away from the bumhuntmentality!
btw Travis Browne really fought like a complete retard. Can't believe this guy gave all the chances for Mitrione to beat him by standing and boxing with him. If he has a better gameplan based on more kicks and clinching it would have been an easy victory. UFC heavyweight div is a joke.
Big night for me so far with Trinaldo, Cote, Browne and Alvarez coming through. I have a bet on over 4.5 and small on Cruz here. I just hope for a good fight.
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Minsk United States. Jan 18 2016 06:03. Posts 1558
Theres absolutely nothing Pettis did wrong, he had a strong striking edge and was fighting well, but Alvarez is a punching bag, and it takes more than a few minutes to really start showing. Then about 10 minutes was eaten from the fight by that fence shit that Pettis defended really fucking well. Then he got one takedown and it looked like he won, based off having only a slight striking disadvantage manifest in the 3 mintues they had. Fight was just complete bullshit.
He literally had no real edge, and won. It's such a steal. Alvarez can't really hurt Pettis on the ground, nor can he stand and strike with him, and he ends up winning based of that somehow.
Wow Alvarez sucks balls, semi robbery from Pettis
Browne won though so its fine
TJ wins by cardio/power
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 18 2016 06:06. Posts 13050
On January 18 2016 04:59 northsails wrote:
btw Travis Browne really fought like a complete retard. Can't believe this guy gave all the chances for Mitrione to beat him by standing and boxing with him. If he has a better gameplan based on more kicks and clinching it would have been an easy victory. UFC heavyweight div is a joke.
Big night for me so far with Trinaldo, Cote, Browne and Alvarez coming through. I have a bet on over 4.5 and small on Cruz here. I just hope for a good fight.
Browne looked super cautious against Mitrione, probably cuz he was in a weird spot and didn't want to run into a punch from a guy who only had 1 path to victory.
Browne needs to get his mind right before he fights again.
Rekrul is a newb
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iakim322 United States. Jan 18 2016 06:12. Posts 1335
Actually had to step out and miss the Pettis fight. Pretty glad I did although you lose money just the same. Can't stand lay n pray'ers. Makes it worse when they successfully do it against the guy you bet on. Then even worse from there when the lay n prayer is proud of hugging his way to a victory in a fight.
The ref in the Mitrione/Browne fight looked he was tending to an empty bar in Wisconsin or something. I would feel bad for Mitrione except for all his talk about how good of a striker he was, a lot of his gameplan was apparently lunging in with single power shots with his chin hanging up. Gl to him on free agency
i had no clue who won at the end tbh
thought it was pretty fun
im a regular at nl5
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jvilla777 Australia. Jan 18 2016 07:00. Posts 1348
I'm not even mad, my heart wanted Cruz to win so bad but my brain was like bet on dillashaw.
Also for some reason dillashaw was not as aggressive in this fight compared to the barao fights.
Did he not drink his juice for this fight?
longple: ur missing the point! this is an attempt to get away from the bumhuntmentality!
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NMcNasty United States. Jan 18 2016 07:00. Posts 2039
I had it 48-47 tj, but three rounds were razor close so I can't complain. Cruz looked better but IMO tj edged him out in the damage department in rounds 1 and 2.
r1: close
r2: lean cruz
r3: close
r4: lean dillashaw
r5: lean dillashaw
Then, when u consider that:
#1 TJ was the agressor
#2 Cruz's take downs never truly did anything
#3 TJ did the damage and landed the harder shots
#4 TJ is the champion
I think it should have went to TJ
james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;(
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iakim322 United States. Jan 18 2016 07:02. Posts 1335
On January 18 2016 06:00 jvilla777 wrote:
I'm not even mad, my heart wanted Cruz to win so bad but my brain was like bet on dillashaw.
Also for some reason dillashaw was not as aggressive in this fight compared to the barao fights.
Did he not drink his juice for this fight?
He tried to be the first two rounds. It wasn't working that well with Cruz slipping out repeatedly. So TJ switched to making Dom come to him which actually was better for awhile
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iakim322 United States. Jan 18 2016 07:10. Posts 1335
Thought R4 to TJ was the only true definitive one. I had it 3-0 Cruz after 3 but knew they were pretty close rounds and he hadn't done any real damage. If fights were scored more as a whole instead of five separate equivalent rounds, more weight would be put in the damage that TJ did throughout and esp last two rounds. But well, they aren't so don't think too much complaint can be given to Dom winning the scorecards.
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 18 2016 07:26. Posts 13050
On January 17 2016 20:36 PuertoRican wrote:
My bets pre-live betting:
I have a good amount of money tied up in 4 bets or so, at least for my bankroll size, but I didn't see a lot of fights on this card where I wanted to go big pre-fight, especially with 1/3 of the card being short notice fighters.
Cruz +130 $40 for $52
Cruz +115 $60 for $69
Pettis/Alvarez ITD -115 $11.50 for $10
Browne -148 $29.60 for $20
Trinaldo decision +300 $5 for $15
Cote +100 $20 for $20
Wade/Baghdad ITD +145 $5 for $7.25
Blanco -130 $19.50 for $15
Latifi -205 $61.50 for $30
Latifi/O’Connell u1.5 +125 $15 for $18.75
Felder/Cruickshank u1.5 +155 $5 for $7.75
Felder/Cruickshank ITD -130 $13 for $10
Rosa/Bochniak u2.5 -125 $12.50 for $10
Font submission +1200 $5 for $60
Font/Gomez u1.5 +105 $10 for $10.50
Parlay $20 for $34.64: Pettis, Felder, Taisumov (Taisumov’s fight is cancelled)
This was a great night for me, even though there was no live-betting at all on Bookmaker tonight. As you can see, I bet more on Cote because his odds kept increasing, which was funny because I already favored him to win. I also stayed away from Boetsch's ML at -165 because I only wanted to bet it if he got to -150, and to my luck and surprise, I avoided it and he ended up getting finished in round 2...
Edit: I don't have all my bets listed. There's several wins and losses that I didn't list below.
My total profit = +$248.70, which equals +24.8 units profit.
Cruz +130 $40 for $52
Cruz +115 $60 for $69
Pettis/Alvarez ITD -115 $11.50 for $10
Browne -148 $29.60 for $20
Trinaldo +120 $20 for $24
Trinaldo decision +300 $5 for $15
Cote +100 $35 for $35
Cote +125 $10 for $12.50
Cote +130 $10 for $13
Cote KO/TKO/DQ +326 $10 for $32.60
Wade/Baghdad ITD +145 $5 for $7.25
Blanco -130 $19.50 for $15
Latifi -205 $61.50 for $30
Latifi/O’Connell u1.5 +125 $15 for $18.75
Felder/Cruickshank u1.5 +155 $5 for $7.75
Felder/Cruickshank ITD -130 $13 for $10
Rosa/Bochniak u2.5 -125 $12.50 for $10
Font submission +1200 $5 for $60
Font/Gomez u1.5 +105 $10 for $10.50
Parlay $20 for $34.64: Pettis, Felder, Taisumov (Taisumov’s fight is cancelled)
maybe i was watching in this fight thinking Dom should've convincingly won to get the belt again out of respect for TJ and his past domination of the world beater Barao. in my opinion it felt like people watched this fight thinking the opposite and gave too much weight for every little thing Dom did and how amazing he looked despite the whole backstory. no brainer rematch for sure.
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 18 2016 07:36. Posts 13050
Rekrul is a newb
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Big_Rob_isback United States. Jan 18 2016 09:44. Posts 211
I don't understand why Cruz won. Do you get points for dodging punches or something? TJ missed a ton, and Cruz looked really amazing, kind of like a Floyd Mayweather, but not as boring
But seriously, they landed about the same amount of shots, and Cruz shots looked like pillow punches compared to TJ's. They had some takedown scrambles without any control taken so who cares about those.... I would give it to TJ first round and 4 and 5. I think judges definitely are prone to give Cruz rounds if shots landed are equal but Cruz was more evasive... which doesn't make sense exactly because when in doubt you score by aggression and ring control... just tough to score I guess
just playing live poker for fun
Last edit: 18/01/2016 09:48
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 18 2016 10:38. Posts 13050
On January 18 2016 08:44 Big_Rob_isback wrote:
I don't understand why Cruz won. Do you get points for dodging punches or something? TJ missed a ton, and Cruz looked really amazing, kind of like a Floyd Mayweather, but not as boring
But seriously, they landed about the same amount of shots, and Cruz shots looked like pillow punches compared to TJ's. They had some takedown scrambles without any control taken so who cares about those.... I would give it to TJ first round and 4 and 5. I think judges definitely are prone to give Cruz rounds if shots landed are equal but Cruz was more evasive... which doesn't make sense exactly because when in doubt you score by aggression and ring control... just tough to score I guess
During the last UFC event, Carlos Condit landed way more strikes than Robbie Lawler (almost double), but 2 of the 3 judges gave Lawler the split-decision in the end. Like Dominick Cruz, Carlos Condit also didn't load-up on his punches and throw bombs, he focused on activity and defense, but it wasn't enough in the end...
Basically, judges are inconsistent. I agree with Cruz winning, but it could've went either way as the split-decision suggested. Condit on the other hand... ...he got ROBBED...
TianYuan Korea (South). Jan 18 2016 15:26. Posts 6817
On January 18 2016 05:48 Raidern wrote:
i had no clue who won at the end tbh
thought it was pretty fun
Same, could see it easily going for either one. Round 1 felt like the swing round. Almost an entirely even split on mmadecisions.com too in media score cards.
Great fight, look forward to a potential rematch down the line.
Happy with Alvarez performance too!
On January 18 2016 05:12 iakim322 wrote:
Actually had to step out and miss the Pettis fight. Pretty glad I did although you lose money just the same. Can't stand lay n pray'ers. Makes it worse when they successfully do it against the guy you bet on. Then even worse from there when the lay n prayer is proud of hugging his way to a victory in a fight.
The ref in the Mitrione/Browne fight looked he was tending to an empty bar in Wisconsin or something. I would feel bad for Mitrione except for all his talk about how good of a striker he was, a lot of his gameplan was apparently lunging in with single power shots with his chin hanging up. Gl to him on free agency
Uhhh, I think Alvarez did great. Not like he was losing on the feet either, he was fairly competitive there. If you want to blame someone, blame Pettis. All Alvarez did was follow the RDA blueprint (though obviously less effectively).
On January 18 2016 05:25 whamm! wrote:
lol wtf these neo-footwork fags never watching these midgets if they fought again
against the usual fighters though they look amazing
So happy Cruz won but momentum was swinging towards dillashaw in the end
Pettis sucks, way too timid and it's like he didn't learn how to fight against RDA style game plan, or it could be a matter of not being strong enough physically in the weight class.
Cote looked great.
Wonder how much of the eye pokes that Browne did affected mitrione, I think quite a bit lol.
Felt bad for dillashaw at the post fight conference, he absolutely can't stand Dominick, and Megan's interview with Cruz about Faber is pretty funny I'm sure she's good friends with Faber and Cruz just kept bashing him hahahha.
Not an easy event to bet on but glad to have won.
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traxamillion United States. Jan 18 2016 16:54. Posts 10468
Thought tj won 48-47 1,4,5
Pettis could have won that decision too honestly but wtf was that fight.
Judges really putting it in the ass the last couple events
I had Cruz winning 3-2. Think he edged 1,2 and 3. Still it was a very close and a great fight and couple of rounds can be scored draws or can go either way.
Incredible comeback for Dom. Can't really think of any other athlete coming back from all this crippling injuries in such a good shape.
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traxamillion United States. Jan 18 2016 22:56. Posts 10468
On January 18 2016 17:14 northsails wrote:
I had Cruz winning 3-2. Think he edged 1,2 and 3. Still it was a very close and a great fight and couple of rounds can be scored draws or can go either way.
Incredible comeback for Dom. Can't really think of any other athlete coming back from all this crippling injuries in such a good shape.
Yea 48-47 cruz is the only other reasonable score
I felt like he was trying to play off how much TJ fucked up his legs at the end of the fight (said he came in with hurt left foot but is limping around on the wrong leg for that) as to not open up a road map for other fighters on how to hurt him
dillashaw isn't as good as I thought. i would like to see him fight barao one more time, and faber!
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 19 2016 02:49. Posts 13050
On January 19 2016 01:26 lucky331 wrote:
dillashaw isn't as good as I thought. i would like to see him fight barao one more time, and faber!
Why would you want to see Barao fight Dillashaw one more time? He clearly lost both fights, and in the 2nd fight, Barao looked different the beginning of the fight, almost like he knew he was going to lose already.
Dillashaw vs. Faber would be cool, but Faber isn't as fast as he used to be, and he doesn't do well in fights that go long because it means he doesn't have any advantage over his opponent. If Faber has an advantage over his opponent, he'll finish them within 3 rounds, which wouldn't happen against Dillashaw.
On January 19 2016 01:26 lucky331 wrote:
dillashaw isn't as good as I thought. i would like to see him fight barao one more time, and faber!
Why would you want to see Barao fight Dillashaw one more time? He clearly lost both fights, and in the 2nd fight, Barao looked different the beginning of the fight, almost like he knew he was going to lose already.
Dillashaw vs. Faber would be cool, but Faber isn't as fast as he used to be, and he doesn't do well in fights that go long because it means he doesn't have any advantage over his opponent. If Faber has an advantage over his opponent, he'll finish them within 3 rounds, which wouldn't happen against Dillashaw.
i want to see it all for the drama at bantam weight. cruz, dillashaw, faber all have a story if the fight each other round robin. and barao is still out there to prove himself.
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 19 2016 08:27. Posts 13050
On January 19 2016 01:26 lucky331 wrote:
dillashaw isn't as good as I thought. i would like to see him fight barao one more time, and faber!
Why would you want to see Barao fight Dillashaw one more time? He clearly lost both fights, and in the 2nd fight, Barao looked different the beginning of the fight, almost like he knew he was going to lose already.
Dillashaw vs. Faber would be cool, but Faber isn't as fast as he used to be, and he doesn't do well in fights that go long because it means he doesn't have any advantage over his opponent. If Faber has an advantage over his opponent, he'll finish them within 3 rounds, which wouldn't happen against Dillashaw.
i want to see it all for the drama at bantam weight. cruz, dillashaw, faber all have a story if the fight each other round robin. and barao is still out there to prove himself.
I'd love to see Cruz vs. Faber and Cruz vs. Dillashaw #2, but only Cruz vs. Dillashaw would be competitive.
As for Barao, he's moving up to 145 pounds for his next fight, according to his manager.
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican United States. Jan 21 2016 19:51. Posts 13050
Korea (South). Jan 07 2016 04:28. Posts 6817
