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UFC FN 81: Dillashaw vs. Cruz - Page 4

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PuertoRican   United States. Jan 16 2016 03:47. Posts 13050


  On January 16 2016 00:42 soberstone wrote:
Show nested quote +



Disclaimer, I regret the ITD bet on Font. I think between him coming off the layoff and Gomez being super dangerous (he's actually supposed to be a pretty legit blue-chipper and the tape backs that up - great jab, vicious power on the counter, etc) this has a great chance to be a competitive fight that goes the distance. I still like Font where I got him at -200 because I don't think (although I can't be sure) Gomez can beat him a sustainable percentage of the time, but I just think its closer than I initially did. I think the correct play if probably at this point where the odds are and the DK price is is to pass on the fight completely and just try and gather information for future fights.

There is actually one Gomez play I like but I need to wait for my degenerate football bets to finish before I can make more bets.



Font/Gomez are former training partners.

I expect to see a hug, or a handshake and a hug during the weigh-ins.

Rekrul is a newb 

whamm!   Albania. Jan 16 2016 03:54. Posts 11625

Pettis, TJ and Travis Browne for me


iakim322   United States. Jan 16 2016 05:14. Posts 1335


  On January 16 2016 02:47 PuertoRican wrote:
Show nested quote +



Font/Gomez are former training partners.

I expect to see a hug, or a handshake and a hug during the weigh-ins.



Didn't know that. Definitely laying off this fight then


lucky331   . Jan 16 2016 05:34. Posts 1124


  On January 14 2016 05:45 iakim322 wrote:
Show nested quote +




They need to have this face off kinda segment with Conor. TJ just doesn't work


Cruz trying to get in Dillashaw's head. And it's working, I think.


iakim322   United States. Jan 16 2016 06:10. Posts 1335


  On January 16 2016 00:42 soberstone wrote:
Show nested quote +



Tangent here, but the days of betting pure submission fighters to win by submission profitably are long gone. Position > submission is such an important concept in fighting smart and to be frank, there are very few fighters that are so good at no gi grappling (the Palhareses, Jacare's, Oliveria's and Ortegas of the world are rare) that one can't simply gameplan properly to be ready to defend the normal TD-GuardPass-Wait-for-Mistake-Capitalize and submit. It just doesn't happen that way anymore. While striking offense in MMA is far ahead of striking defense, submission defense is far ahead of submission offense.

To my point, other than Neil Magney, Damien Maia hasn't submitted anyone since 2009. It's not that he's unwilling to go for subs, it's just that he's too intelligent to commit to them on guys that can potentially whether the storm and beat up a gassed out guy who went all-in on a half-sunk in guillotine, etc. I guess all I'm saying are that submission's these days are just a product of happen-stance within fights, not stylistic matchups on paper.

Sorry for the rant, but I'm just thinking as I type. I think this is part of what makes what Weidman did vs Rockhold in round 1 so fucking retarded. Not the spinning back-kick, he already deserved to lose at that point. It was the initial taking of Luke Rockholds back at the very beginning of the fight that made absolutely ZERO sense. He completely gassed himself out for no reason trying to work for some pipedream standing RNC on the physically superior guy. What a retard god-dammit. I can forgive a terrible spinning back-kick when you are bludgeoned, exhausted, and not thinking clearly, but I will never forgive his gameplan. And I love the man. I said on this forum before that fucking fight that one thing Weidman needs to not do is initiate grappling exchanges early when both guys were fresh, and what does he do? SMFH. And no, I'm not saying Weidman wins the fight if he plays it smart, I just think we would have seen an epic 5-round war and instead we got a disappointing fight in terms of excitement and technique (other than Weidman getting pulverized defenseless for a minute straight)




http://mmajunkie.com/2016/01/how-neil...ew-new-moves-at-a-demian-maia-seminar

“He showed me how, at one point in my fight with (Kelvin) Gastelum, I had taken his back but then got in too much of a rush to finish, and ended up losing the position,” Magny said.

---

Not such a bad rant. Because even the guy himself, Maia, agrees with you. I read this and remembered I had read the above a week or two ago. And it's something that I think I've thought about. My thoughts were slightly different...that pure submission fighters are just weaker overall now because most most everyone is at least semi competent with submission defense now which is really just logical as the sport has progressed. Rarely see a guy that still makes glaring maneuvering mistakes on the ground anymore unless they were already hurt by a strike. Brandon Thatch comes to mind as being really clumsy on the ground. Mitrione too though he entered the sport late. On the offensive side too, lotta fighters are just more aware in general of overexposure on top and to ground and pound with at least some technique instead of just trying to go ape shit only to lose position or get caught.

Werdum prob realized this a cpl years ago (ok prob also the fact that he played dead on the ground voluntarily vs Overeem and got absolutely no takers) and decided he had to finally really go learn striking. Then, he kinda became a monster.

I'm still sad about Weidman. Let's stop bringing that up. He'll get 'em next time.


iakim322   United States. Jan 16 2016 06:19. Posts 1335


  On January 16 2016 04:34 lucky331 wrote:
Show nested quote +



Cruz trying to get in Dillashaw's head. And it's working, I think.



I don't really. Unless TJ really is not very intelligent like Cruz is saying. Cruz was always going to try do this kinda stuff to TJ so it shoulda been seen a mile away. A bit over the top by promo/fight mode Cruz though. He's really a great talker and analyst when he's on the Fox show. Probably the best they have.


lucky331   . Jan 16 2016 07:06. Posts 1124

^ True. And Cruz is going for a great come back. I think motivation counts for a lot in this fight. And could give Cruz the edge. But then again he's been out of the cage for a long time so we'll have to wait and see.


lucky331   . Jan 16 2016 12:09. Posts 1124


  On January 07 2016 20:14 Baalim wrote:
this is like Superman vs bizarro Superman



Yup. But after watching lots of videos of those two it looks like Cruz has better footwork in his game. And way more unpredictable than Dillashaw. But less power.


alejandicto   . Jan 16 2016 18:57. Posts 865

My only bet:
Parlay: Pettis + Cruz (+170)

Waiting for the line Pettis inside the distance.


PuertoRican   United States. Jan 16 2016 20:51. Posts 13050

FOX Sports suspends UFC analyst Kenny Florian following plagiarism controversy: http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/1/16/...orian-plagiarism-controversy-mma-news


Basically, Florian watched a video breakdown of a boxing legend who fought 60+ years ago and used the author's words in that breakdown word-for-word, and applied it to his breakdown of Dominick Cruz without giving any credit. If you read the community members responses, you will see Florian wasn't as sorry as he said he was.

Fox Sports suspended Florian for an unknown amount of time, and he won't be doing commentary tomorrow for the Cruz vs. Dillashaw card.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Jan 16 2016 21:38. Posts 13050


  On January 07 2016 03:28 TianYuan wrote:
Hype.










T.J. Dillashaw (135) vs. Dominick Cruz (135)
Eddie Alvarez (155.5) vs. Anthony Pettis (155.5)
Travis Browne (238) vs. Matt Mitrione (249)
Ross Pearson (155) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (155.5)
Patrick Cote (171) vs. Ben Saunders (170)
Medhi Baghdad (156) vs. Chris Wade (155.5)
Tim Boetsch (206) vs. Ed Herman (204.5)
Maximo Blanco (146) vs. Luke Sanders (145.5)
Daron Cruickshank (155) vs. Paul Felder (155.5)
Ilir Latifi (205) vs. Sean O’Connell (205.5)
Kyle Bochniak (145) vs. Charles Rosa (145.5)
Rob Font (135) vs. Joey Gomez (135)
Francimar Barroso (205) vs. Elvis Mutapcic (201)

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 16/01/2016 22:46

PuertoRican   United States. Jan 17 2016 01:32. Posts 13050

Invicta FC 15: Cyborg vs. Ibragimova

Date: January 16, 2016
Time: 6pm PST / 9pm EST


Cristiane Justino vs. Daria Ibragimova
Livia Renata Souza vs. DeAnna Bennett
Colleen Schneider vs. Raquel Pa'aluhi
Amber Brown vs. Shino VanHoose
Lacey Schuckman vs. Mizuki Inoue
Angela Hill vs. Alida Gray
Megan Anderson vs. Amber Leibrock


http://www.ufc.tv/video/invicta-fc-15

Rekrul is a newb 

lucky331   . Jan 17 2016 01:33. Posts 1124

nice! when did the 3rd BJJ Scout Cruz case study video come out?

anyway, I think Dillashaw is gonna play it safe and won't attempt a KO making this one of the most boring fights ever. i hope I'm really wrong though...


Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Jan 17 2016 02:01. Posts 9634

We still don't know if Cruz is the Cruz pre-injury. One minute fight over a year ago didn't really show much, was kind of a fast destruction.

offtopic: Dillashaw feels so antipathetic


PuertoRican   United States. Jan 17 2016 03:09. Posts 13050


  On January 17 2016 01:01 Spitfiree wrote:
We still don't know if Cruz is the Cruz pre-injury. One minute fight over a year ago didn't really show much, was kind of a fast destruction.

offtopic: Dillashaw feels so antipathetic



I think Cruz will be an improved version of his old self. He'll have added new dimensions to his game to fit TJ's style of fighting, which is something Cruz loves to do (figuring out/breaking down his opponents is what he used to do to adjust to their styles pre-fight and during the fight).

The fight will probably be close and entertaining, but TJ is likely gonna be wrong if he still thinks the same old Cruz will show up.


  On January 17 2016 00:33 lucky331 wrote:
nice! when did the 3rd BJJ Scout Cruz case study video come out?



Today (Saturday).

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 17/01/2016 03:10

Minsk   United States. Jan 17 2016 19:54. Posts 1558

Cruz ML
Pettis ML

those are easy.

Mitrione ML
Felder ML

those I'm more worried about.


Stim_Abuser   United States. Jan 17 2016 20:56. Posts 7499

I got Cruz. They never faced anyone like each other and I think it's so evenly matched that I think Cruz much higher fight IQ will allow him to adjust better in the fight and win rounds.

Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete 

PuertoRican   United States. Jan 17 2016 21:36. Posts 13050

My bets pre-live betting:

+ Show Spoiler +

Rekrul is a newb 

iakim322   United States. Jan 17 2016 22:40. Posts 1335

Ed Herman should be a walking corpse by now but he looked pretty good on the scale. Making me want to pull back on Boetsch


soberstone   United States. Jan 18 2016 00:48. Posts 2662

BOOM.

Rob Font. His distance and footwork is really getting there. Super impressive comeback performance. Already as likely as anyone to give the winner or Dillashaw v Cruz a good fight. His grappling pressure seemed a little soft but I'm gonna chalk that up to Gomez being good.


 
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